(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE // DAILY SUMMARY)

Date: April 25, 2025 Reporting Period: April 24, 00:00 UTC – April 25, 11:00 UTC (Reflecting key events and consolidated intelligence)

Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant

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I. Executive Summary

• Major Russian Air Assault: Russia conducted a large-scale, multi-vector combined air attack on April 24, involving over 200 air targets (ballistic/cruise missiles, Shahed drones). Ukrainian Air Defence intercepted 112 targets, but the attack caused significant civilian casualties (12 KIA, 87 WIA in Kyiv alone) and widespread damage to residential areas and infrastructure across multiple oblasts. A North Korean KN-23 missile was confirmed used in the Kyiv strike. A subsequent large-scale drone attack occurred overnight April 24-25, again causing civilian casualties (3 KIA, 15 WIA in Pavlohrad) and infrastructure damage.
• High-Intensity Ground Combat: Fierce fighting continues, with 175 combat clashes reported on April 24. The Pokrovsk axis remains the primary Russian focus (65 assaults). Intense combat also persists on the Toretsk axis (17 attacks, RU claims advances), and in the Kursk/Sumy border zone (27 RU assaults repelled). Russia seeks to establish a buffer zone and exerts pressure across multiple fronts.
• Significant Internal Russian Event: A fatal car explosion in Balashikha, Russia, resulted in the confirmed death of Major General Yaroslav Moskalik, Deputy Head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff. An explosive device is officially cited as the cause, with a murder investigation opened. This represents a potential high-impact targeted killing within Russia.
• Ukrainian Deep Strikes & Counter-Logistics: The aftermath of the successful Ukrainian strike on the 51st GRAU arsenal near Kirzhach continues with ongoing fires, confirming significant disruption to Russian logistics. The confirmed strike on the Yelabuga UAV plant demonstrates Ukraine's capacity to target critical military-industrial sites deep within Russia. Ukraine also detained a foreign vessel suspected of illegally exporting grain from occupied Crimea, demonstrating efforts to counter Russian economic activities.
• Diplomatic Maneuvering: High-level talks occurred with US Envoy Witkoff meeting President Putin in Moscow. Reports indicate discussions about resuming direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Russia claiming "progress." Conflicting reports and public statements highlight deep divisions on potential peace terms, particularly regarding territorial concessions and security guarantees. Ukraine publicly reiterated its core principles for peace, rejecting territorial concessions.
• Capabilities & Adaptation: Ukraine demonstrated effective drone defense (destroying advanced RU recon UAVs) and is adapting organizationally (forming 8th Air Assault Corps, ground drone unit). Both sides increasingly rely on drones for various roles, including strike and logistics. Russian forces display logistical vulnerabilities (fundraising appeals, potential supply gaps).

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II. Strategic, Air, and Naval Warfare

• Major Russian Air Attack (Apr 24):
  • Scale & Composition: >200 air targets (Ballistic: Iskander-M/K, KN-23; Cruise: Kalibr, Kh-101; Drones: Shahed/Imitator). Multi-vector assault.
  • Ukrainian Air Defence: Intercepted 112 targets (incl. missiles & drones). Tactical aviation contributed. Attack highlights critical need for enhanced AD systems against large-scale, combined attacks.
  • Civilian Impact: Severe. Kyiv: 12 KIA, 87 WIA. Kostiantynivka: 2 KIA (incl. child). Widespread damage to residential buildings, infrastructure (railway, enterprises) across multiple regions. Kherson energy facility destroyed by prior sustained attacks.
• Russian Air Attack (Night Apr 24-25):
  • Scale & Composition: 103 UAVs launched (strike & imitator types) from RU territory.
  • Ukrainian Air Defence: 41 strike UAVs intercepted. 40 "imitator" drones neutralized/failed.
  • Civilian Impact: Pavlohrad: 3 KIA (incl. child), 15 WIA (incl. 3 children, 1 rescuer). Damage to enterprises in Kharkiv.
• Ukrainian Strikes:
  • Kirzhach Arsenal (Apr 22): Ongoing fires/detonations confirm major logistical disruption.
  • Yelabuga UAV Plant (Apr 23): Successful strike on drone production facility confirmed.
  • Crimea (Apr 23-24): Widespread explosions suggest significant combined strike on RU military infrastructure. RU claims intercepting 59+ UAVs. Claimed Ukrainian strike on house of Chechen official in Crimea.
  • Border Area: Strike on RU radar station reported. Destruction of advanced RU recon UAVs (Zala, Orlan) claimed.
• Internal Russian Incident:
  • Balashikha Explosion (Apr 25): Confirmed death of Major General Yaroslav Moskalik (Deputy Head, Main Operations Directorate, General Staff) due to explosive device in vehicle. Official murder investigation opened. Represents significant internal security failure and potential targeted killing.
• Naval Situation:
  • Black Sea: 1 RU Kalibr carrier active (6 missiles).
  • Mediterranean: 4 RU warships (2 Kalibr carriers, 12 missiles).
  • Crimean Grain Export: Ukraine detained foreign vessel allegedly involved in illegal transport of grain seized from occupied territories via Sevastopol.

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III. Frontline Operations (Key Axes - April 24)

• Overall Intensity: High (175 clashes reported). RU forces intensifying ground assaults under air cover.
• Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): Ukrainian forces repelled 65 Russian assaults. Intense fighting ongoing near numerous settlements. Significant RU losses reported by UA.
• Toretsk Axis: 17 Russian attacks. RU forces confirmed control of Sukha Balka, claim Tarasovka, and report advances near Dachne and urban fighting in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). DeepState assesses a critical situation with potential RU flanking maneuvers.
• Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: 27 Russian assaults repelled. Heavy RU air/artillery use. Ongoing fierce battles for Hornal and Oleshnya. RU claims advances near Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast) and pushing towards border. Ukraine maintains active presence; 95th DShV Brigade confirmed operating. UA SSO reports previous elimination of North Korean personnel here.
• Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk): 10 Russian attacks. RU claims advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne, creating encirclement threat, and repelling UA counter-attacks.
• Lyman Axis: 15 Russian attacks repelled.
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts repelled. RU claims ongoing offensive attempts near Mala Tokmachka aiming to encircle Orikhiv. Heavy drone use by both sides impacting logistics.
• Kramatorsk Axis: 13 clashes. RU claims advances within Chasiv Yar.
• Kupyansk Axis: 4 Russian attacks repelled. RU claims localized advances near Stepova Novoselivka.

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IV. Capabilities, Logistics, and Personnel

• Ukraine:
  • Capabilities: Demonstrated effective AD vs drones (41/103 intercepted). Successful deep strikes (Yelabuga, Kirzhach). Formation of 8th Air Assault Corps & 47th Bde ground drone unit reflects structural adaptation and technological investment. Effective tactical drone use (recon, strike, counter-EW). Use of adapted mobility (motorcycles/ATVs). Maritime interdiction capabilities shown.
  • Logistics: Continued reliance on fundraising for FPVs, stretchers, vehicle repair. Seeking Starlink alternatives. Implementing state compensation programs (eVidnovlennya). Benefitting from international aid ($105bn US since 2022).
  • Personnel: Actively recruiting (UAV Battalions, "Contract 18-24"). Highlighting individual soldier contributions (scout capturing 6 POWs, police officer joining as medic). Addressing POW/MIA issues via Coordination HQ. Commemorating fallen soldiers.
• Russia:
  • Capabilities: Sustains large-scale air/missile/drone strikes. Heavy use of KABs, artillery. Employs diverse drone types. Ground forces conducting multi-axis offensives. Claims EW effectiveness and successful targeting (radars, depots). Improving secure communications. Showcasing thermal camouflage.
  • Logistics: Significant disruption at Kirzhach arsenal. Continued reliance on volunteer fundraising for basic equipment (drones, radios, vehicle protection components - Voin DV appeal), indicating potential supply chain gaps. Reported issues with personnel support ("Storm Z" soldier account). Sale of Prigozhin-linked catering company signifies change in military logistics contractors.
  • Personnel: High losses estimated by Ukraine (1170 neutralized Apr 24). Significant losses claimed by RU in Kursk direction (likely inflated). Reports of RU military casualties from UA shelling in Belgorod. Sentencing of foreign mercenary. Reported detention of RU serviceman (rape allegation) and fatal traffic accident involving RU military truck highlight potential discipline/conduct issues. Official investigation into Major General Moskalik's death underway. Expanding psychological support programs for personnel/families indicates awareness of conflict's toll.

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V. Political, Diplomatic, and Information Environment

• Negotiations: High-level meeting between Putin and US Envoy Witkoff concluded, with RU sources claiming "constructive" talks and discussion of resuming direct negotiations. Reports detail differing potential peace frameworks (US vs. Europe/Ukraine), particularly regarding territorial concessions (Crimea, Donbas) and security guarantees (NATO). Reuters published details of a potential "Trump plan". Ukraine reiterated its three core principles (no territorial recognition, no military limits, no alliance veto). Trump stated talks are "fragile" and reiterated views on Crimea/NATO.
• Information Operations:
  • Russia: Heavily framing the Balashikha explosion as a Ukrainian terrorist attack targeting a General. Promoting claimed battlefield successes and Ukrainian losses. Amplifying narratives questioning Ukrainian resolve/unity (Klitschko statement) and Western support fatigue. Justifying strikes as targeting military infrastructure. Using historical narratives (WWII) and internal security events (Dagestan arrests, Tuapse desecration) to bolster domestic support. Disseminating conspiracy theories (CIA Deputy Director's son). Accusing Ukraine of bioweapon threats.
  • Ukraine: Highlighting civilian casualties/damage from RU attacks as war crimes. Emphasizing defensive successes and RU losses. Publicizing own capabilities (deep strikes, drone use, AD intercepts). Countering RU narratives on mobilization and peace terms. Showcasing soldier resilience and international support. Detailing RU use of North Korean missiles with foreign components. Promoting efforts against illegal grain exports.

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VI. Key Findings & Outlook

• Russian Offensive Persistence: Russia maintains intense offensive pressure on key eastern axes (Pokrovsk, Toretsk) and continues efforts to secure border regions (Kursk/Sumy), employing combined arms tactics including heavy air support. Expect continued attempts to achieve breakthroughs, particularly before potential shifts in weather or aid delivery impacts.
• Air Warfare & Civilian Risk: Large-scale Russian air attacks remain a primary tool for strategic pressure and causing civilian harm. Ukraine's AD is effective but stretched. The confirmed use of North Korean missiles with foreign components poses significant challenges and requires international action on supply chains. Civilian populations remain at high risk.
• Ukrainian Resilience & Adaptation: Ukraine demonstrates effective defense, inflicts significant Russian losses, and adapts structurally (8th DShV Corps) and technologically (ground drones, FPV use). Successful deep strikes highlight growing capabilities to target Russian assets far behind lines.
• Diplomatic Track Uncertainty: High-level talks (Putin-Witkoff) indicate channels remain open, but substantial disagreements on core issues (territory, security guarantees) persist. Potential US policy shifts under Trump remain a major factor influencing negotiations and Allied unity. Ukraine's firm public stance sets clear boundaries.
• Internal Russian Security: The confirmed death of Major General Moskalik via explosive device in Balashikha is a significant event, potentially indicating successful targeted operations deep within Russia or severe internal security failures. This will likely trigger heightened security measures and investigations within Russia.
• Logistical Strain: Continued evidence suggests logistical challenges for both sides, particularly Russian reliance on volunteer support for specific equipment needs and significant reported equipment losses. The disruption of the Kirzhach arsenal will likely have near-term impacts.

Outlook: The conflict is likely to remain intense in the near term, with continued heavy fighting in the East and border regions, alongside persistent Russian air attacks. Diplomatic efforts will likely continue but face significant hurdles. Monitoring the fallout from the Moskalik incident, the progress of Russian offensives, Ukrainian defensive resilience, and shifts in international support/diplomacy will be critical.

(End Summary)