Okay, here's a comprehensive, beautifully formatted daily summary based on the provided intelligence reports, presented from a professional, Ukrainian perspective.

Military Intelligence Daily Summary - Ukrainian Perspective

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: AI Military Intelligence Assistant Date: February 24, 2025 Time: 20:01 UTC Reporting Period: 19:31 UTC, February 23, 2025 - 20:00 UTC, February 24, 2025.

---

I. Executive Summary

This reporting period (spanning late February 23 and most of February 24, 2025) has been marked by an extremely critical and rapidly deteriorating situation for Ukraine. Key developments include:

1. Massive, Sustained Russian Drone and Missile Attacks (EXTREME PRIORITY): Russia launched a wave of drone attacks across Ukraine, unprecedented in scale according to some reports. Targets included Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kropyvnytskyi, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Kherson regions. Guided aerial bombs (KABs) were used in Sumy and Donetsk oblasts. Explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, and other locations. Air defenses were active, but the sheer volume of attacks stressed Ukrainian capabilities. This represents a major escalation in Russia's aerial campaign.

2. Confirmed Successful Ukrainian Deep Strike (EXTREME PRIORITY): A Ukrainian drone attack successfully hit the Ryazan oil refinery deep inside Russia, causing a major fire. This demonstrates a significant Ukrainian capability to disrupt Russian logistics and war effort at strategic depth.

3. Confirmed and Reported Russian Advances (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces continue to press their offensive, with reported advances in Bilohorivka, near Makiivka, near Ocheretyne, and in the Novopavlivske direction.
   • Sumy Oblast: Air strikes with guided aerial bombs continue.
   • Kharkiv Oblast: Fighting reported in the Volchansk area, with Russian forces using unconventional tactics (UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle).
   • Kursk Oblast (Russia): Intense fighting continues near the border, with both sides claiming successes. The situation remains highly volatile.
   • Belogorovka: Russian forces have reportedly taken control of a key stronghold.

4. US Policy Crisis Deepens (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Trump-Putin Negotiations: Trump openly claims to be engaged in "serious negotiations" with Putin, without Ukrainian involvement, to end the war and discuss economic agreements.
   • Unfavorable Mineral Deal: Trump reiterates his intention to secure a deal involving Ukrainian rare earth minerals, with highly unfavorable terms for Ukraine (US as sole beneficiary of a fund receiving 50% of income).
   • US Blocks UN Resolution: The US vetoed a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression and supported a Russian-amended resolution that reportedly does not name Russia as the aggressor. This represents a MAJOR DIPLOMATIC SHIFT and a POTENTIAL BETRAYAL of Ukraine.
   • US Security Guarantees: Reports suggest the US is resisting including security guarantees in the minerals deal. US National Security Advisor Waltz states that Ukraine's NATO membership is "not being considered."
   • Potential European Troop Deployment: Trump casually states he "sees no problem" with European troops in Ukraine as peacekeepers, without specifying conditions or Ukrainian consent. Macron and Starmer reportedly have a plan, but not on the front lines.
   • Zelensky's Response: Zelensky reportedly "shouted" at the US Treasury Secretary during discussions about the mineral deal, demonstrating STRONG UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE. He also warned about the consequences to America and Europe.

5. Increased International Support (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • EU: Discussions on a major new military aid package (€20-40 billion), though Hungary remains an obstacle. Von der Leyen promised a new tranche of aid. High-level visits to Kyiv.
   • UK: Announced a major sanctions package targeting Russian military supply chains, revenue streams, and individuals. Also announced £4.5 billion in military aid.
   • Spain: Announced a €1 billion military aid package for 2025.
   • Canada: Will provide LAV III BMPs, F-16 simulators, and aid financed from frozen Russian assets. Imposed new sanctions.
   • Denmark: Announced a new aid package.
   • Norway: Will allocate €3.5 billion in aid in 2025.
   • Ireland: Will provide Giraffe radar systems.
   • Lithuania: Proposed January 1, 2030 for Ukraine's EU accession.
   • Assessment: This demonstrates continued, and in some cases, increased, international support. However, it MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT to COMPLETELY OFFSET a POTENTIAL LOSS OF US SUPPORT.

6. Shift in Western Arms Strategy (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Reports indicate a potential shift in Western arms strategy, favoring large quantities of inexpensive weapons over sophisticated, expensive systems. This could LIMIT UKRAINE'S ACCESS TO ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY.

7. Information Warfare Intensifies (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Both sides actively engage in propaganda and disinformation. Russian sources are attempting to portray the situation as favorable to Russia and undermine Ukrainian morale. Ukrainian sources are highlighting Russian losses and atrocities.
   • Trump's statements are a KEY COMPONENT of the INFORMATION WAR, potentially aiming to INFLUENCE PUBLIC OPINION and PRESSURE UKRAINE.

8. Russian Technological Developments (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Russian "Admiral" drone carrier technology poses NEW THREAT.
• Russian forces are reportedly using FIBER-OPTIC CABLES to CONTROL DRONES, reducing vulnerability to electronic warfare.

9. Other Developments:
   • Explosion near Russian consulate in Marseille, France (likely minor incident).
   • South Korea lifts sanctions on medical equipment exports to Russia.
   • Reported execution of Ukrainian POWs (needs verification).
   • Continued fighting and shelling in multiple regions, including Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.
   • Ukrainian forces report CAPTURING 11 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS IN KURSK REGION, confirming continued cross-border operations.
   • Reported ATTACK on an oil pumping station in KRASNODAR KRAI (inside Russia).
   • Claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment in KURSK REGION.

---

II. Detailed Assessments and Recommendations by Key Area/Domain

A. Military Operations

1. Massive Drone and Missile Attacks (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Russia has launched a wave of drone attacks unprecedented in scale, targeting a wide range of Ukrainian cities and regions. Ukrainian air defenses are ACTIVE AND CLAIM SUCCESSES, but the SHEER VOLUME OF ATTACKS is STRESSING CAPABILITIES. GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS continue to be a MAJOR THREAT. The attack DEMONSTRATES RUSSIAN INTENT to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN DEFENSES and INFLICT MAXIMUM DAMAGE on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND POPULATION CENTERS.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Maintain maximum air defense readiness across ALL OF UKRAINE, prioritizing KYIV, CHERKASY, KROPYVNYTSKYI, SUMY, KHARKIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, DNIPROPETROVSK, POLTAVA, and other threatened regions.
     • (Immediate Action) Deploy all available air defense assets, including MOBILE UNITS, to INTERCEPT DRONES AND MISSILES before they reach targets.
     • (Immediate Action) Issue continuous warnings to civilians in ALL THREATENED AREAS to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
     • (Immediate Action) Coordinate air defense efforts between different units and regions to MAXIMIZE COVERAGE AND EFFECTIVENESS.
     • (Immediate Action) Analyze Russian drone attack patterns to IDENTIFY VULNERABILITIES and OPTIMIZE AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS.
     • (Ongoing) Continue efforts to develop and deploy counter-drone technologies, including ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS and PHYSICAL INTERCEPTION METHODS.
     • (Ongoing) Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
     • (Ongoing) Seek additional air defense systems and munitions from INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS.
     • (Immediate Action) Investigate the reported attacks in Kyiv and Sumy, ASSESS DAMAGE, and PROVIDE ASSISTANCE to affected populations.

2. Ukrainian Deep Strikes (High Priority):

   • Assessment: The CONFIRMED ATTACK ON THE RYAZAN OIL REFINERY and the REPORTED ATTACK ON THE NOVOPAVLOVSK OIL PUMPING STATION (inside Russia) demonstrate a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY to TARGET CRITICAL RUSSIAN INFRASTRUCTURE at STRATEGIC DEPTH. This DISRUPTS RUSSIAN LOGISTICS AND WAR EFFORT.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Thoroughly assess the damage to the Ryazan refinery and the Novopavlovsk oil pumping station, and EVALUATE THE IMPACT on Russian fuel production and supply.
     • (Ongoing) Continue to develop and refine long-range strike capabilities, including DRONES, MISSILES, AND SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES.
     • (Ongoing) Identify and prioritize additional high-value targets within Russia, focusing on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and MILITARY ASSETS.
     • (Ongoing) Maintain operational security to PROTECT UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES and PREVENT RUSSIAN RETALIATION.

3. Reported Russian Advances (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Russian forces are REPORTEDLY ADVANCING in MULTIPLE SECTORS, particularly in DONETSK OBLAST (BILOHORIVKA, NEAR MAKIVKA, NEAR OCHERETYNE, NOVOPAVLOVSKE DIRECTION) and the KURSK REGION BORDER AREA. The reported advance into SUMY OBLAST is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING. These advances, if confirmed, represent a SERIOUS DETERIORATION of the Ukrainian defensive position.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Urgently verify all reported Russian advances using ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS. Prioritize the areas of BILOHORIVKA, MAKIVKA, OCHERETYNE, NOVOPAVLOVSKE, and the KURSK REGION BORDER.
     • (Immediate Action) Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in threatened areas, DEPLOYING ADDITIONAL TROOPS, EQUIPMENT, AND FORTIFICATIONS.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare for potential counterattacks to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY and DISRUPT RUSSIAN MOMENTUM, but ONLY IF RESOURCES AND CONDITIONS ALLOW.
     • (Ongoing) Monitor Russian troop movements and PREPARATIONS FOR FURTHER OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS.
     • (Immediate Action) Address logistical challenges and ENSURE ADEQUATE SUPPLIES REACH FRONTLINE UNITS.

4. Kursk Region (High Priority):

• Assessment: The situation in the Kursk region is HIGHLY VOLATILE AND UNCLEAR. Confirmed reports of INTENSE FIGHTING WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY, with both sides claiming successes. Putin's direct involvement highlights the SERIOUSNESS of the situation.

• Recommendations:

  • (Immediate Action) Urgently clarify the situation on the ground, verifying the EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN OPERATIONS and the AFFILIATION OF CASUALTIES.
  • (Immediate Action) Reinforce border defenses and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER INCURSIONS or ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT.

B. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Situation

1. US Policy Shift (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Trump's OPEN CLAIMS of DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH PUTIN, his FOCUS ON ECONOMIC DEALS (including Ukrainian minerals and Russian resources), his REFUSAL TO CONDEMN RUSSIA at the UN, and his STATEMENTS ABOUT EUROPEAN TROOPS all point to a MAJOR AND IMMINENT SHIFT IN US POLICY that is HIGHLY DETRIMENTAL TO UKRAINE. This represents a POTENTIAL BETRAYAL and ABANDONMENT of Ukraine by its KEY ALLY. The REPORTED US VETO of the UN RESOLUTION condemning Russian aggression is a MAJOR BLOW to Ukraine's diplomatic efforts.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Urgently engage with US officials at the HIGHEST LEVELS to CLARIFY THE US POSITION, EXPRESS STRONG CONCERNS, and DEMAND TRANSPARENCY about any negotiations with Russia.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare for a potential COLLAPSE OF US SUPPORT and ACTIVELY SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES of military, financial, and political assistance.
     • (Immediate Action) Strengthen ties with EUROPEAN ALLIES and other partners who SUPPORT UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.
     • (Immediate Action) Develop a contingency plan for operating WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT US SUPPORT, including REASSESSING MILITARY STRATEGY, SEEKING NEW ALLIANCES, and MOBILIZING DOMESTIC RESOURCES.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare a public communications strategy to address the potential shift in US policy and MAINTAIN PUBLIC MORALE in the face of adversity.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare a counter-narrative for Trump's position.

2. Trump-Zelensky Meeting (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: The IMMINENT MEETING between Trump and Zelensky is a CRITICAL MOMENT. Trump is likely to PRESSURE ZELENSKY to accept a HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DEAL involving TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS and ECONOMIC DEPENDENCE.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare a strong and unified negotiating position that REJECTS ANY COMPROMISE on Ukrainian sovereignty or territorial integrity.
     • (Immediate Action) Anticipate pressure tactics from Trump and DEVELOP COUNTER-ARGUMENTS.
     • (Immediate Action) Coordinate with European allies to PRESENT A UNITED FRONT and REINFORCE INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for Ukraine's position.
     • (Immediate Action) Be prepared to walk away from the meeting if the terms are unacceptable.
     • (Immediate Action) Develop a public communications strategy to explain Ukraine's position and MAINTAIN PUBLIC SUPPORT regardless of the outcome.
     • (Immediate Action): Coordinate with European Allies prior to the meeting.

3. Potential European Troop Deployment (High Priority):

   • Assessment: While the idea of European troops in Ukraine AFTER A CEASEFIRE has been floated, DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR. This COULD BE BENEFICIAL if properly structured and under Ukrainian control, but COULD ALSO BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS if it LEGITIMIZES A RUSSIAN PRESENCE or LEADS TO A FROZEN CONFLICT.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Urgently seek clarification from European leaders (particularly France and Britain) on the DETAILS OF ANY PROPOSED TROOP DEPLOYMENT, including the SIZE, COMPOSITION, MANDATE, LOCATION, AND CONDITIONS.
     • (Immediate Action) Insist on full Ukrainian control over any foreign troops on its territory.
     • (Immediate Action) Ensure that any deployment is explicitly linked to a full Russian withdrawal and the RESTORATION OF UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY.
     • (Immediate Action) Reject any proposal that would LEGITIMIZE A RUSSIAN PRESENCE or CREATE A FROZEN CONFLICT.

4. German Political Situation (Medium Priority):

   • Assessment: The recent German election results, with a STRONG SHOWING FOR THE FAR-RIGHT AFD, raise CONCERNS about FUTURE GERMAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Ongoing) Monitor the German political situation closely and ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on military aid and sanctions policy.
     • (Ongoing) Engage with German officials from all parties to MAINTAIN STRONG BILATERAL RELATIONS.

5. International Support (High Priority):

   • Assessment: While NEW AID PACKAGES from SPAIN, NORWAY, CANADA, AND THE UK are WELCOME, they MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT to COMPLETELY OFFSET a POTENTIAL LOSS OF US SUPPORT. The EU is discussing additional aid, but HUNGARY REMAINS AN OBSTACLE.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Ongoing) Continue to actively seek military, financial, and humanitarian assistance from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES.
     • (Ongoing) Strengthen ties with countries that have shown consistent support for Ukraine.
     • (Ongoing) Explore alternative avenues for securing aid if EU consensus cannot be reached.
     • (Ongoing) Welcome and expedite the delivery of promised aid packages.

6. Shift in Western Arms Strategy (High Priority):

   • Assessment: The REPORTED SHIFT towards providing LARGE QUANTITIES OF INEXPENSIVE WEAPONS instead of SOPHISTICATED SYSTEMS is a MAJOR CONCERN. This could SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO CONDUCT MODERN WARFARE.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Urgently engage with NATO allies to CLARIFY THEIR POSITION on arms provision.
     • (Immediate Action) Assess the impact of this potential shift on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES.
     • (Immediate Action) Advocate for continued access to advanced weapons systems, while also EXPLORING OPTIONS for INCREASING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION of lower-cost weapons.
     • (Immediate Action) Develop contingency plans for operating with a REDUCED FLOW OF HIGH-END WEAPONRY.

C. Information Warfare

1. Countering Disinformation (High Priority):
   • Assessment: The information environment remains HIGHLY CONTESTED, with INTENSE PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION EFFORTS by both sides. RUSSIA IS ACTIVELY ATTEMPTING TO UNDERMINE UKRAINIAN MORALE AND WESTERN SUPPORT.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Proactively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly claims of Ukrainian atrocities, inflated casualty figures, and narratives undermining Zelensky's legitimacy.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare for and preemptively counter the expected Russian "victory" declarations and narratives.
     • (Immediate Action) Highlight Russian war crimes and violations of international law.
     • (Immediate Action) Promote accurate information through reliable media channels and international platforms.
     • (Immediate Action) Address the hacking of the Ukrainian internet provider and strengthen cybersecurity measures to prevent future breaches.
     • (Ongoing) Monitor Russian media and social media channels for DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA.
     • (Ongoing) Counter false narratives and PROMOTE ACCURATE INFORMATION to both domestic and international audiences.
     • (Immediate Action) Develop counter-narratives to CHALLENGE TRUMP'S STATEMENTS and REINFORCE THE IMPORTANCE OF CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.

D. Internal Security

1. Espionage and Sabotage (High Priority):
   • Assessment: The CONTINUED THREAT OF RUSSIAN SABOTAGE AND TERRORIST ACTIVITIES within Ukraine remains HIGH.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Ongoing) Maintain vigilance and enhance counterintelligence efforts.
     • (Ongoing) Thoroughly vet personnel with access to sensitive information or critical infrastructure.
     • (Ongoing) Increase security measures at military installations, key facilities, and potential targets within Ukraine.

E. Other

1. Claimed Improvement of North Korean Missiles (High Priority, Verification Needed):
   • Assessment: If true, this would be a major threat.
   • Recommendation: Urgently verify this claim through all available intelligence sources.

---

III. Critical Information Gaps

• Details of US-Russia Negotiations: The SPECIFIC CONTENT AND OBJECTIVES of any US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS remain LARGELY UNKNOWN. The EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT (OR EXCLUSION) is also UNCLEAR.
• Terms of Potential US-Ukraine Mineral Deal: The PRECISE TERMS of the reported agreement are UNCLEAR, but AVAILABLE INFORMATION SUGGESTS IT IS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE TO UKRAINE.
• Extent of Russian Advances: The EXACT SCALE AND IMPACT of REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in MULTIPLE SECTORS require INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
• Status of US Military Aid: The CURRENT STATUS OF US MILITARY AID to Ukraine remains UNCLEAR, with CONFLICTING REPORTS about POTENTIAL HALTS OR SLOWDOWNS.
• Details of Potential European Troop Deployment: The SPECIFICS of any proposed deployment of European troops to Ukraine, including SIZE, MANDATE, LOCATION, AND CONDITIONS, remain LARGELY UNKNOWN.
• Ukrainian Casualties in Kursk Region: The ACTUAL NUMBER AND CIRCUMSTANCES of Ukrainian casualties in the KURSK REGION BORDER AREA are UNCLEAR due to CONFLICTING REPORTS.
• Russian Casualties: Accurate figures remain DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN, with OFFICIAL RUSSIAN SOURCES LIKELY UNDERREPORTING LOSSES.

---

IV. Overall Assessment

The situation in Ukraine is EXTREMELY CRITICAL, RAPIDLY DETERIORATING, AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The combination of INTENSE MILITARY PRESSURE from Russia, CONFIRMED AND REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UNPRECEDENTED DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS, and a POTENTIAL DRAMATIC SHIFT IN US POLICY creates a PERFECT STORM that THREATENS UKRAINE'S VERY EXISTENCE.

Key Threats and Concerns:

• Imminent Collapse of US Support: Trump's statements and actions, combined with reports of US-Russia negotiations and a potentially unfavorable minerals deal, indicate a HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MAJOR REDUCTION OR COMPLETE CESSATION OF US MILITARY AND FINANCIAL AID. This would be CATASTROPHIC for Ukraine.
• Russian Military Momentum: Russian forces are MAKING SIGNIFICANT GAINS on MULTIPLE FRONTS, particularly in the DONETSK REGION, and REPORTEDLY ADVANCING in the KURSK AND SUMY REGIONS. This INCREASES THE RISK of MAJOR BREAKTHROUGHS and POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENTS of Ukrainian forces.
• Overwhelmed Air Defenses: The SCALE AND INTENSITY of RUSSIAN DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS are STRESSING UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES to the BREAKING POINT.
• Internal Political Instability: The REPORTED FAILURE of the Ukrainian parliament to pass a resolution supporting Zelensky RAISES CONCERNS about POTENTIAL POLITICAL INSTABILITY and INTERNAL DIVISION at a CRITICAL MOMENT.
• Information Warfare: The INTENSE PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN by Russia is UNDERMINING UKRAINIAN MORALE and SOWING CONFUSION.

Immediate Priorities:

1. Counteract US Policy Shift and Prepare for Loss of Support: This is the ABSOLUTE TOP PRIORITY. URGENT DIPLOMATIC ACTION, STRONG PUBLIC COMMUNICATIONS, and PREPARATION FOR ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF AID are ESSENTIAL.
2. Verify and Respond to Russian Advances: IMMEDIATE MILITARY ACTION is needed to CONFIRM THE EXTENT OF RUSSIAN GAINS and REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES.
3. Maintain Air Defense Readiness: MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS and EFFECTIVE DEPLOYMENT OF ALL AVAILABLE RESOURCES are CRUCIAL to COUNTER THE ONGOING AERIAL THREAT.
4. Address Internal Political Issues: URGENTLY VERIFY reports about the Ukrainian parliament and TAKE STEPS TO MAINTAIN UNITY AND STABILITY.
5. Counter Russian Propaganda: A ROBUST AND PROACTIVE INFORMATION WARFARE STRATEGY is needed to COMBAT RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION and MAINTAIN PUBLIC MORALE.

The situation DEMANDS IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION on ALL FRONTS – military, diplomatic, and informational – to AVERT A POTENTIAL CATASTROPHE. The NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEEKS will be CRITICAL in determining the FUTURE OF UKRAINE. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH, a COLLAPSE OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, or a FORCED, UNFAVORABLE PEACE DEAL is EXTREMELY HIGH.