Okay, here is a comprehensive daily intelligence summary based on the provided reports up to March 28, 2025, 16:56 UTC, formatted professionally using Markdown from the Ukrainian perspective.

Military Intelligence Daily Summary: Ukrainian Perspective

Date: March 28, 2025 Time: 16:56 UTC Reporting Period: March 27, 17:05 UTC - March 28, 16:56 UTC

(CONFIDENTIAL // FOR UKRAINIAN HIGH COMMAND USE ONLY)

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I. Strategic Overview & Key Developments

• Energy Moratorium Collapse & Infrastructure Threat (HIGH SIGNIFICANCE):
  • Following the significant strike on the Sudzha Gas Measuring Station (GIS) in Kursk Oblast (Mar 28), Russia has explicitly declared it reserves the right not to comply with the previously reported energy infrastructure strike moratorium, citing alleged Ukrainian violations (specifically the Sudzha strike). Russia attributes the Sudzha strike to Ukrainian HIMARS; Ukraine denies responsibility, accusing Russia of attacking its own facility or Ukrainian gas infrastructure.
  • Assessment: This declaration signals a high probability of imminent, large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure nationwide. This is corroborated by continued Russian targeting of energy-related facilities (Naftogaz sites attacked Mar 28; Kherson/Poltava energy facilities hit Mar 27-28). The energy situation remains critical despite temporary regional stability due to weather/solar power.
• Overall Combat Intensity: Remains exceptionally high across the front, exceeding 200 daily Russian assault actions for the past three days (highest 3-day intensity in 2025, per DeepState). Major Russian efforts continue on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions, with significant operations along the Kursk border.
• Kursk Border Situation:
  • Russian Advances: Russian MoD officially claims the liberation of Hoholivka (Gogolevka). Russian forces have visually confirmed control over the MAPP Sudzha border crossing, representing a notable advance. Fighting continues near Huyevo and Oleshnia, with RU forces claiming further progress and operational encirclement of remaining Ukrainian positions in the incursion area.
  • Ukrainian Actions: Ukrainian forces continue defensive operations and cross-border engagements. UGS reported repelling 18 RU assaults in the Kursk region (Mar 27-28). Continued heavy RU shelling and airstrikes impacting Sumy Oblast.
• Potential Russian Spring Offensive & Long-Term Threat: President Zelenskyy's warning (Mar 27) of a potential major Russian offensive (possibly targeting Sumy/Kharkiv) aligns with reported German intelligence assessments (BND, Mar 28) suggesting Russia is preparing for potential large-scale conventional conflict with NATO by the late 2020s.
• Diplomatic Landscape:
  • President Putin discussed the Ukraine situation, including energy infrastructure attacks, with President Erdogan, who reiterated Turkey's mediation offer.
  • The US deems high-level US-Russia talks premature, emphasizing the need for technical progress first. European sanctions remain a key factor in any potential settlement.
  • Ukraine is analyzing a US draft agreement concerning potential conditions related to mineral resources and aid repayment. President Zelensky confirmed US military aid is not considered debt.
• Repatriation/Body Exchange (Mar 28): Ukraine received the bodies of 909 fallen defenders. Russia received 43 bodies (35 military, 8 claimed civilians from Kursk). Russia claims 25 civilians returned from Kursk.

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II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv)

• Kursk Oblast Activity (RU Territory):
  • Combat: Intense fighting persists near Sudzha, Huyevo, Oleshnia, Hornal. UGS reported 9 clashes today (as of 14:11 UTC), 3 ongoing.
  • Russian Claims: Confirmed control over Hoholivka and MAPP Sudzha. Claims clearing forest E of Huyevo, entry into Oleshnia. Heavy RU air/artillery support.
  • Road Interdiction: Russian forces continue efforts to interdict the Sudzha-Yunakivka road, claiming destruction of UA vehicles (incl. Kozak AC) via drones.
  • Russian Officer KIA: Hero of Russia, Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia SF), confirmed KIA near Cherkaske Porichne.
• Belgorod Oblast Activity (RU Territory):
  • Active fighting reported near Popovka and Demidovka. Popovka described as a contested "grey zone" with heavy RU shelling and small arms battles. RU claims UA assault group eliminated in Popovka building via drone strike. Demidovka claimed partially controlled by RU, attempts to clear surrounded UA elements ongoing.
  • Alleged UA drone attack targeting civilian vehicles in Golovchino (Graivoron district) reported (Requires verification).
• Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts (UA Territory):
  • Russian Strikes: Continuous artillery and air strikes on numerous border settlements (Oleksandrivka, Myropilske, Pokrovka, Krasnopillia, Vovchansk, Udy etc.). KAB threats persist.
  • Kharkiv Direction: One clash near Vovchansk reported (UGS, 14:11 UTC). Intense urban combat described by UA border guard. UA forces (Hart Bde) claim strikes on RU positions near Vovchansk.

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III. Frontline Activity Highlights (UGS Update 14:11 UTC unless stated)

• Kupyansk Direction:
  • RU Assaults: 3 RU assaults near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka. 1 clash ongoing.
  • Repelled Assault: UA 77th Airmobile Brigade claimed repelling significant RU armored assault (13 vehicles) on Mar 27, inflicting heavy losses (Video released).
  • RU claims expanded control near Novolyubivka.
• Lyman Direction:
  • High Intensity. 9 RU attacks near Nadiia, Yampilivka, towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka. 6 clashes ongoing.
  • Terny: Assessed as almost fully occupied by RU forces, situation worsening (DeepState, Mar 27).
• Siversk Direction:
  • 1 RU assault ongoing near Ivano-Darivka.
• Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
  • 3 RU attempts repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora.
• Toretsk Direction:
  • High Intensity. 17 RU attacks near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka. 4 clashes ongoing.
• Pokrovsk Direction:
  • Highest Intensity sector. 50 RU attacks today across numerous settlements (Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Novoserhiivka, Uspenivka, etc.). 12 clashes ongoing.
  • UA Drone Footage (Flying Skull unit, 3rd Int'l Legion): Highlights heavy RU infantry use, significant RU losses, difficult situation. Active FPV drone use targeting RU personnel.
  • RU Tactics: RU MoD claims use of UR-77 mine clearing vehicle offensively against a UA stronghold, followed by ground assault capture.
• Novopavlivka Direction (South Donetsk / Vremivka):
  • RU Assaults: 12 RU attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiia. 4 clashes ongoing.
  • RU Claims: Destruction of UA pickup truck with EW antennas near Kostiantynivka. Destruction of UA Starlink terminals claimed. Previous claims of advances towards Komar, Otradne, Bogatyr; footholds in Volne Pole, Vesele, Razliv.
  • UA Drone Footage (37th Marine Brigade): Shows drone strikes targeting RU personnel east of Kostyantynopil, notes RU buildup in Ulakly.
• Huliaipole Direction:
  • 4 RU assaults near Pryvilne. RU airstrike hit Novopil. RU drone strikes reported in Pology area.
• Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
  • 5 RU attacks repelled towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, and N of Nesterianka. RU airstrikes hit Kamyanske and Novoandriivka.
  • UA Artillery Effectiveness: Captured RU soldier testimony highlights very heavy UA artillery fire causing severe RU casualties near Robotyne.
• Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):
  • 2 combat clashes reported.

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IV. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

• Current Threats (As of 16:56 UTC): Ongoing threat from Russian Tactical Aviation (KAB launches) in East/NE/Sumy regions.
• Energy Infrastructure Strikes: Confirmed damage to Naftogaz facilities (Mar 28). Previous RU strikes on Kherson/Poltava energy objects (Mar 27-28). Zaporizhzhia grid sustaining damage from shelling. Collapse of energy moratorium significantly increases risk of widespread RU strikes.
• Sudzha GIS Strike (Kursk, RU): Significant damage confirmed (Mar 28 morning). Key factor cited by Russia for abandoning energy moratorium.
• Claimed Russian Strikes: Bohodukhov UAV workshop (Kharkiv Obl.), Poltava airfield (incl. Su-24s, MiG-29 repair base), Novopil airstrike (Donetsk), Kamyanske/Novoandriivka airstrikes (Zaporizhzhia), Otradne artillery strikes (South Donetsk), Kostiantynivka area drone strikes (Donetsk). Claimed destruction of Starlink terminals (South Donetsk).
• Alleged Ukrainian Strikes (Russian Claims): Lysychansk building strike (Luhansk), Aleshki hospital strikes (Kherson), Golovchino vehicle attack (Belgorod), Donetsk city drone explosion.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Ukrainian Operations: Counter-battery fire correction ("Chornyi Lis"), anti-personnel/equipment strikes (46th Airmobile, Flying Skull Btn, APACHI group, 37th Marines, 77th Airmobile). Reported destruction of RU logistics/armor in Luhansk Oblast (Signum unit). Successful FPV strike on RU vehicle near Dvorichna (Kupyansk).
  • Russian Operations: FPV strikes claimed in Kursk border area ("Rubikon"), Pokrovsk direction ("SSO Vizantiya"), Popovka building (Belgorod). Continued use of recon and Lancet drones. Footage of drone strikes on UA personnel released.
• Overnight Recap (Mar 27/28): Ukraine intercepted 89 of 163 RU UAVs (strike/imitator).

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V. Other Noteworthy Information

• International Support & Cooperation:
  • Contingent Meeting: Urgent meeting confirmed (France, UK, Ukraine) regarding potential foreign military contingents.
  • Intel/Production: Ukraine secured expanded access to intelligence data (incl. satellite) and licenses for Air Defense/Artillery production.
  • Aid: Czech ammo initiative (1.5M shells), Netherlands (€2bn accelerated), France (€2bn), Sweden (€7M demining/drones), Germany (€7.27M energy repair).
• Personnel & Logistics:
  • RU Major Marat Tibilov (Hero of Russia) KIA confirmed in Kursk.
  • Reports indicate ongoing RU manpower issues (forced redeployment of injured, desertion cases, appeals from families of missing). Captured soldier testimony highlights poor training/equipment, use of prisoners.
  • Ongoing fundraising for drones/vehicles by both sides.
• Internal Security:
  • Ukraine: Anti-corruption arrests (Lviv National Guard). Treason conviction (Chernihiv). Investigation into deputy's death (Dnipropetrovsk).
  • Russia: FSB detentions (Crimea, Belgorod, St. Petersburg). Terror prevention claim (Moscow).
• Mobilization (Ukraine): Deadline for medical re-evaluation for "limitedly fit" set for June 5, 2025. System changes planned via Diia portal from April 1st.
• Information Operations: Intense narratives from both sides regarding Sudzha strike, border situation, alleged atrocities, foreign involvement, and internal dissent/morale. RU promotes Sumy explosion counter-narrative. RU frames Moldovan actions against Gagauz leader as political repression.