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Daily Report: 2025-04-10 15:01:41

(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine

Date: April 10, 2025 As of: 11:59 UTC Reporting Period: April 9, 15:00 UTC - April 10, 11:59 UTC

I. Executive Summary

  • Overall Intensity: High-intensity combat persists across multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and the Kursk/Sumy Border. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure using KABs, artillery, drones, and ground assaults.
  • Overnight Air Attacks: Russia launched a large-scale Shahed drone attack (145 Shaheds/imitators claimed launched) targeting multiple oblasts. Ukrainian Air Defence intercepted 85 targets, but impacts from debris/penetrations caused civilian casualties (4 injured in Kyiv, 10 injured in Mykolaiv, 1 injured in Poltava) and damage to infrastructure.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border: Intense fighting continues. Russia claims capture of Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast), supported by MoD statements and video evidence, though contested by other RU sources and UA actions. Significant Russian air and artillery strikes continue. UA forces maintain defensive operations and conduct cross-border strikes.
  • Key Frontline Developments: Russian advances confirmed near Kupyansk, Lyman (Katerynivka, Torske/Nove), Toretsk (Druzhba, Kalynove, Nadiivka), Pokrovsk (Tarasivka), Novopavlivsk (Rozlyv, Rozdolne), and Orikhiv (Shcherbaky). Ukrainian forces achieved localized gains near Kotlyne (Pokrovsk) and Toretsk. The situation on the Lyman axis is assessed as critical by some sources. Intense fighting reported within Shevchenko (Pokrovsk).
  • Capabilities & Tactics: Ukraine emphasizes urgent need for air defense (Patriot systems). Russia continues heavy KAB use (162 reported Apr 9), introduces new drone types ("Molniya-2", "Veter-10"), and employs tactics like aerial mining (Kupyansk) and drone-on-drone engagement. Ukraine warns of new Russian Shahed submunition tactic posing UXO hazards. Accidental Russian ordnance drops continue.
  • International: US-Russia prisoner exchange confirmed. US-Russia consultations in Istanbul concluded (focus on diplomatic missions). PACE resolution demands Russian accountability and supports Special Tribunal.

II. Major Incidents & Developments

  • Massive Shahed Drone Attack (Night Apr 9-10):
    • Scale: Russia launched 145 Shahed-type UAVs and imitator drones from multiple sites (Kursk, Orel, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Chauda).
    • Interceptions: UA Air Force reports 85 Shahed/other type UAVs destroyed. 49 imitator drones reportedly lost track without consequence.
    • Impact: Damage and civilian casualties reported in multiple oblasts:
      • Kyiv: 4 injured (debris); damage to house, warehouse fire.
      • Mykolaiv: 10 injured (2 hospitalized); damage to apartments, vehicles, infrastructure.
      • Poltava: 1 injured (minor); building damage.
      • Other: Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblasts also targeted.
  • Dnipro Missile Strike (Apr 10, ~13:06 UTC):
    • Confirmed Russian missile strike (likely Iskander) hit Dnipro city.
    • Civilian Impact: 1 KIA (42M), 3 civilians hospitalized (moderate condition). Major fire/destruction at civilian facility (reported as "Biosfera" plant).
  • Nikopol Kamikaze Drone Strike (Apr 10):
    • Daytime attack injured 12 civilians, including a 16-year-old in serious condition. Dormitory, cars damaged.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border - Zhuravka (Sumy) Capture Claim:
    • Russian MoD officially claims liberation of Zhuravka. Video released purportedly showing RU VDV flag raising. Claim linked to buffer zone creation, disrupting UA logistics.
    • Contested: Another RU source stated settlement not fully liberated. UA 36th Marine Brigade video shows engagements in nearby Basivka, contesting broad RU control.
  • Sverdlov Plant Strike Aftermath (Dzerzhinsk, RU):
    • Sources confirm damage at Sverdlov explosives plant from Apr 9 UA UAV attack (pipeline trestle, 2 workshops hit by 3+ UAVs), contradicting initial Russian denials. Highlights successful UA deep strike capability.
  • New Russian Drone Tactic Warning:
    • Ukrainian authorities warn of Russian UAVs scattering small explosive devices (tube-like, notched, ~5x40cm), potentially with delayed fuses, posing significant UXO hazard nationwide.

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity Summary

  • Ongoing Threats: Persistent RU tactical aviation activity (NE/E/S fronts). Ongoing KAB threat (Sumy Oblast focus). Active RU reconnaissance UAVs (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border).
  • Naval Threat: No Russian warships in Black/Azov Seas. 3 Kalibr carriers (26 missiles) in Mediterranean.
  • Ukrainian Strikes in Russia:
    • RU Intercept Claims: RU MoD claims 49 UA UAVs intercepted overnight (Apr 9-10) across multiple regions.
    • Bryansk Strike: Video suggests UA AASM Hammer strike (Apr 9).
    • Moscow Incident: Report/video of AA fire vs alleged helicopter-type UAV near Naro-Fominsk; potentially friendly fire.
  • Accidental Russian Ordnance Drops: Confirmed accidental FAB drop (Belgorod, Apr 8). At least 50th incident since Jan 2025.

IV. Key Frontline Developments (Consolidated)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border: Intense fighting. RU claims Zhuravka capture (contested). Fighting ongoing near Oleshnia, Hornal (Kursk), Loknya, Basivka (Sumy). Heavy RU air/arty strikes. UA 36th Marines active in Basivka.
  • Kharkiv Axis: UA repelled 5 RU attacks (Apr 9). Active RU recon/attack UAV threat.
  • Kupyansk Axis: UA repelled 2 RU assaults (Apr 9). ISW confirms RU advances. RU using drones for aerial mining.
  • Lyman Axis: UA repelled 27 RU attacks (Apr 9). Situation critical. RU confirmed control of Katerynivka; advances near Katerynivka, Torske/Nove confirmed. RU claims expanding bridgehead on Zherebets River.
  • Siversk Axis: UA repelled 10 RU assaults (Apr 9).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): 2 engagements (Apr 9). RU claims FPV destruction of 2 UA tanks, 2 IFVs. RU claims shootdown of UA heavy drone.
  • Toretsk Axis: UA repelled 20 RU attacks (Apr 9). DeepState/ISW confirm RU advances near Druzhba, Kalynove, Nadiivka. ISW notes reported UA advances. RU claims >1km advance N of Toretsk near Shumy mine. UA claims destruction of RU armored group W of Toretsk.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: UA repelled 40 RU attacks (Apr 9). UA recovered positions near Kotlyne. ISW confirms RU advances (S. Tarasivka). RU claim advance into central Kalynove. Significant RU losses reported (Apr 9).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: UA repelled 6 RU attacks (Apr 9). DeepState/ISW confirm RU advances near Rozlyv, Rozdolne, towards Bohatyr. RU claims capture of strongpoints/heights near Bohatyr/Otradne. Video shows numerous RU KIA near Volkovo.
  • Orikhiv Axis: UA repelled 9 RU assaults (Apr 9). ISW confirms RU advance in central Shcherbaky. RU claims strike on UA repair base (Kushuhum) and destroying tank via fiber-optic FPV (Novodanylivka). UA claims hit on RU Strela-10 SAM.
  • Kherson Left Bank: No RU ground assaults (Apr 9). RU shelling kills 1, wounds 4 civilians in UA-controlled areas (Apr 10). SBU detains alleged RU collaborator in Kherson.

V. Reported Losses & Casualties (Highlights)

  • Ukrainian Civilians: 1 KIA (Kherson), 4 injured (Kyiv), 10 injured (Mykolaiv), 1 injured (Poltava) from overnight/recent RU strikes. 12 injured (Nikopol daytime drone strike). Previous RU attack on Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4) toll updated: 20 KIA (9 children), >90 WIA.
  • Ukrainian Personnel/Equipment (RU Claims): High daily loss figures (~1380 personnel total claimed Apr 10). Specific claims include tanks/IFVs (Kramatorsk, Sumy border), repair base (Kushuhum), military unit territory (Zaporizhzhia), UAV CPs (Toretsk). M2 Bradley/BTR confirmed destroyed (Kursk).
  • Russian Personnel/Equipment (UA Claims): High daily loss figures (+1420 personnel, +3 tanks, +12 AFVs, +70 Arty, +105 UAVs claimed Apr 10). Specific claims include high losses on Pokrovsk axis (Apr 9), destruction of RU armored group (Toretsk), hit on Strela-10 SAM (Orikhiv), destruction of 3 Arty pieces (Kharkiv). Record RU MIA requests (March) noted.
  • Russian Civilians (RU Claims): 9 bodies allegedly found in Makhnovka (Kursk), blamed on UA forces (Verify). 4 injured in alleged UA drone strike on car (Bryansk Oblast). 1 driver injured by accidental RU FAB drop (Belgorod).

VI. Capabilities, Logistics & Support

  • Ukrainian: Urgent need for Patriot systems. Successful drone blood delivery trial. Active FPV use. Training ongoing. EU Transport Visa-Free extended. €1B received (frozen RU assets). EU pledges €9B. Belgian €1B/yr + F-16s. UK 3D printing support. US SecDef attending Ramstein virtually. New grant program for military component manufacturers.
  • Russian: Heavy KAB/drone use. New "Cheget" helmets. Tactical adaptations (aerial mining, drone-vs-drone). Logistical challenges persist (accidental drops, crowdfunding appeals). Urals oil price concerns. Increased UGV focus.

VII. International & Political Developments

  • US-Russia: Prisoner exchange confirmed (Karelina/Petrov). Bilateral consultations in Istanbul concluded (diplomatic missions focus).
  • PACE Resolution: Demands Russian accountability, supports Special Tribunal, Compensation Mechanism.
  • EU/NATO: "Coalition of the Willing" meeting ongoing (Brussels). Estonian PM raises possibility of post-armistice troop deployment (monitoring/deterrence). Estonia obliges Orthodox Church to sever Moscow ties.
  • China: MFA denies knowledge of Chinese fighters in Ukraine, calls for peace talks.
  • Japan: Warned by Russia against supplying arms to Ukraine.

Disclaimer: This summary synthesizes information from multiple sources. Claims, especially regarding advances, losses, and BDA, require independent verification.

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