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Ukraine Military Intelligence Summary - December 21, 2024

Situation Report: December 21st, 2024, 08:55 UTC

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Executive Summary

Today's reports indicate a continued high intensity conflict across multiple fronts. Russian forces maintain significant offensive pressure, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The Ukrainian military is facing severe challenges, including troop desertions, significant casualties, and critical supply shortages.

Drone warfare remains a dominant factor, with both sides employing extensive drone operations for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Reports confirm Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russian territory, including multiple attacks in Kazan, Tatarstan, and Sochi, demonstrating a growing capability to project power beyond the immediate front lines. However, Russia also continues its relentless drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

The alleged assassination of a high-ranking Russian official, coupled with reports of atrocities and war crimes, further escalates tensions. The international community remains engaged, with ongoing discussions about potential peacekeeping missions and continued military and financial support for Ukraine. However, internal divisions within the EU and potential shifts in US policy, as highlighted by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's statements, create uncertainty regarding the long-term sustainability of this support.

Key Developments

1. Intensified Aerial Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are conducting widespread drone operations. Ukrainian drones have reportedly struck targets in Kazan, Tatarstan, causing fires in residential areas. Russian drones continue to target Ukrainian cities, with reports indicating over 110 attack drones used overnight.
• Missile Attacks: Russia continues its missile campaign, targeting infrastructure across Ukraine. Reports indicate the use of various missile types, including ballistic missiles and the advanced "Oreshnik" system.
• Air Defense: Ukrainian air defenses remain active, with reports of multiple drone interceptions. However, the sheer volume of attacks is straining Ukrainian capabilities. Germany's continued support with IRIS-T air defense systems is crucial.
• Escalation: The strikes on Kazan, if confirmed as Ukrainian, represent a significant escalation by extending the conflict deep into Russian territory.
• New: Ukrainian forces report destroying a rare Russian Zala Z-20 reconnaissance UAV.
• New: Enemy drones are approaching Chernihiv.
• New: A drone is moving through Zhytomyr Oblast from Kyiv Oblast.

2. Ground Warfare: Russian Advances

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Chasov Yar: Russian forces control over half of the city, with intense fighting ongoing.
  • Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk: Russian forces are consolidating positions and making advances, with reports of street fighting and civilian evacuations.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: High-intensity battles are taking place, with Russian forces storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Ukrainka. They have reportedly entered Pisky.
  • Kurakhove Direction: Russian forces have almost completely liberated Kurakhove and have completed the liberation of Uspenovka.
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces have raised a flag in Novyi Komar and are expanding their control zone.
  • Russian forces report destroying a "Leopard" tank of the 155th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Solenoye.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe).
  • Video shows a Russian drone striking a Ukrainian tank near Solone, south of Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces struck a power substation west of Kurakhove near Dachne.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces have fully liberated Novoivanovka and made progress in the Sudzha district.
  • Ukrainian counterattacks using NATO armored vehicles and HIMARS have been repelled.
  • Reports of North Korean troops' involvement continue, with claims of heavy losses.
  • The "Sever" group of forces is conducting fierce battles along the entire front line.
  • A Russian "Malka" artillery system destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian military equipment.
• Kharkiv Front:
  • The operational situation remains complex, with heavy fighting in Volchansk.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a fully robotized attack using only ground and FPV drones in the Lipstsi area.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian T-72 tank.
  • Drone operators of the "West" group destroyed a Ukrainian Leopard-2A6 tank.
• Zaporizhzhia Front:
  • Russian forces are conducting assault operations near Kamenskoye and north of Nesterianka.
• Other Locations:
  • Russian forces reportedly liquidated a unit of Colombian mercenaries near the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR).
  • One Ukrainian soldier was killed and another injured in Kupiansk due to shelling.

3. Other Significant Developments

• Alleged Assassination: Ukrainian sources claim responsibility for the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of Russia's Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops. A suspect has been arrested, and the investigation is ongoing.
• Cyberattack: A large-scale cyberattack attributed to Russian hackers targeted Ukraine's state registry systems, causing significant disruption.
• Internal Issues: Reports of corruption within the Kursk Oblast Development Corporation and high desertion rates within the Ukrainian military highlight internal challenges for both sides.
• International Diplomacy: Discussions on a potential ceasefire and peace agreement are ongoing, with varying positions from international actors.
• NATO and EU: NATO has reportedly taken over the coordination of military aid to Ukraine. Discussions are taking place in Brussels about sending European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement.
• Statements from Officials: Conflicting statements from Ukrainian and Russian officials regarding negotiations and military objectives continue to fuel tensions.
• Fico's Allegations: Slovakian Prime Minister Fico claims Zelensky offered him 500 million euros from Russian assets for Slovakia's support of Ukraine's NATO membership.
• New: Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico announced Slovakia's intention to block possible EU sanctions against Russia in the nuclear energy sector and stated that Zelensky has completely ruled out the possibility of continuing gas transit through Ukraine, potentially harming the European bloc. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened Ukraine with a "serious conflict" if Kyiv stops the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia.
• New: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will reportedly postpone the decision on extending sanctions against Russia until after Trump's inauguration. The EU Council called a mistake its statement that "Ukraine must win this war." Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán requested a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss a potential ceasefire with Russia, but the request was denied, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.
• New: Turkey reportedly received an exemption from the US for Gazprombank for gas payments from Russia.
• New: The Ministry of Defense of Georgia summoned the British ambassador after the UK imposed sanctions on the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the republic and other high-ranking officials.
• New: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk traveled to Lviv to meet with President Zelensky.

4. Humanitarian Concerns

• Civilian Casualties: Continued shelling and drone attacks are resulting in civilian casualties and injuries.
• Infrastructure Damage: Attacks on critical infrastructure, including energy facilities and residential buildings, are causing widespread disruption and hardship.
• Alleged Atrocities: Reports of alleged mass killings of civilians in Selidovo and the targeting of medical personnel raise serious concerns about war crimes.

5. Propaganda and Information Warfare

• Both sides continue to engage in propaganda and information warfare, using social media and other channels to shape narratives and influence public opinion.
• Disinformation and misinformation are widespread, making it crucial to verify information from reliable sources.

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Strategic Implications

The current situation suggests a protracted and increasingly brutal conflict. Russian forces are making gains, particularly in the east, and are employing a strategy of attrition. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges but continue to resist.

The intensification of drone warfare and the potential for further escalation, including the use of more destructive weaponry, are major concerns. The humanitarian crisis is deepening, and the impact on civilians is devastating.

The international response remains crucial, but divisions within the EU and potential shifts in US policy create uncertainty about the future of Western support for Ukraine.

Negotiations remain a distant prospect, with both sides holding firm to their positions. The potential involvement of European troops in a peacekeeping role could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict, but it also carries significant risks.

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Recommendations

• Increased Military Aid to Ukraine: Focus on air defense systems, counter-drone technology, and long-range artillery to counter Russian advances and protect civilian infrastructure.
• Enhanced Intelligence Sharing: Improve intelligence sharing between Ukraine and its allies to better anticipate Russian actions and target key assets.
• Strengthened Sanctions: Tighten sanctions on Russia, particularly targeting its energy sector and ability to procure military technology.
• Diplomatic Efforts: Continue to explore all possible avenues for a negotiated settlement, while maintaining a strong military deterrent.
• Humanitarian Assistance: Increase humanitarian aid to address the growing needs of the civilian population.
• Counter-Propaganda: Develop and implement effective strategies to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda.
• Cybersecurity: Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure from cyberattacks.
• Accountability: Investigate and prosecute all alleged war crimes and atrocities.
• International Coordination: Strengthen coordination among allies and partners to ensure a unified and effective response to the crisis.

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Disclaimer: This summary is based on information available as of December 21, 2024, 12:55 UTC. The situation is rapidly evolving, and the information presented here may be subject to change. It is essential to consult multiple sources and exercise critical thinking when evaluating information related to the conflict.