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Daily Report: 2025-04-21 15:02:33

(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine

Date: April 21, 2025 Reporting Period: April 20, 15:00 UTC – April 21, 12:00 UTC (Analysis based on consolidated intelligence reports received up to 12:11 UTC)

Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant

I. Executive Summary

  • Ceasefire Failure & Renewed Escalation: Russia's unilateral Easter ceasefire (Apr 19-21) proved operationally ineffective, characterized by extensive Russian violations (over 2,900 claimed by Ukraine on Apr 20 alone) and exploitation of the period for reinforcement and tactical preparation (e.g., Zherebets River crossings). Hostilities significantly escalated immediately upon ceasefire expiration, notably with a large-scale Russian air attack.
  • Major Russian Air Attack (Night Apr 20-21): A coordinated strike involving 1 Onyx missile, 2 Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles, and 96 UAVs (Shahed & Imitator types) targeted multiple regions. Ukrainian Air Defence intercepted 42 Shahed-type drones, while 47 "imitator" drones failed (likely due to EW/decoys). Confirmed impacts caused damage in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Critical RU claims include hitting a high-value Command Post near Chornobaivka (Kherson).
  • Frontline Intensity: High-intensity ground combat continues, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (highest RU assault concentration). Significant fighting persists on the Toretsk, Lyman, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure, claiming localized gains (e.g., near Toretsk, Yampolivka); Ukrainian forces report repelling numerous attacks and localized counter-offensive actions.
  • Key Ukrainian Successes: Successful Air Force strike confirmed on a Russian UAV facility in Tetkino (Kursk Oblast) on Apr 19, eliminating claimed up to 20 operators. Ukrainian DShV captured 9 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast (Apr 20). Ongoing effective drone operations target Russian EW systems, armor, logistics, and personnel.
  • Critical Humanitarian & LOAC Concerns: Civilian casualties confirmed from overnight Russian strikes. A Russian ambush resulted in Ukrainian KIA on the Toretsk axis during the declared ceasefire. Attack on a marked humanitarian vehicle ("Proliska") also occurred during the ceasefire. Russia continues to heavily promote narratives alleging Ukrainian LOAC violations (e.g., attack on evacuation group under white flags).
  • Diplomatic/Strategic Context: Reports continue surrounding a potential US-proposed peace framework involving concessions on Crimea/NATO. Russia formally ratified its Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran, deepening military-technical cooperation.

II. Strategic & Operational Developments

  • Ceasefire Aftermath & Narratives:
    • Russia officially confirmed the resumption of offensive operations, blaming Ukraine for the ceasefire failure (claiming 4,900 UA violations). Kremlin spokesperson Peskov reiterated RU violation data.
    • Ukraine maintains Russia violated its own ceasefire extensively, using the pause for military preparations. Confirmed engineering work on Zherebets River crossings (Lyman axis) by RU forces during the lull underscores intent for potential offensive actions.
    • Russian Justification for Strikes (Putin): Reiterated stance that strikes on civilian objects occur only if allegedly used militarily, citing Sumy congress center and Odesa facility as examples. Expressed need to "discuss" avoiding civilian infrastructure strikes.
  • Major Russian Air Attack (Night Apr 20-21):
    • Targeted multiple regions simultaneously with Onyx, Kh-31P missiles, and a mix of Shahed/imitator drones launched from Russia and occupied Crimea.
    • UA Air Defence Intercepted 42/96 UAVs; 47 imitators failed. Missiles were not intercepted according to official UA AF reports.
    • Key RU Strike Claims (Require Verification): High-value CP hit near Chornobaivka (Kherson); training polygon (Figurivka, Kharkiv); dual-use facility (Pavlohrad); alleged troop location (Novomoskovsk); airfield prep site (Cherkasy).
    • Confirmed Impacts: Damage to infrastructure/property in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy Oblasts.
  • Ongoing Air Activity: Russian tactical aviation remains highly active, employing KABs and missiles against frontline oblasts (Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia targeted morning Apr 21).
  • Ukrainian Strikes & Capabilities:
    • CONFIRMED: Successful Air Force strike on RU UAV facility near Tetkino (Kursk) on Apr 19 (up to 20 operators KIA claimed).
    • Claimed: Deep strike (25-30km behind lines) near Pisky (Donetsk) hitting RU Borisoglebsk-2 EW system and vehicles. Damage claimed to RU Forpost UAV (Apr 20). Destruction claimed of RU Buk-M2 SAM system.
    • Ongoing Drone Ops: Effective FPV use continues (e.g., "Fenix" unit destruction of RU Tank, 2x Msta-S on Kharkiv front; 40th/34th Coastal Bde strikes near Kherson; "Flying Skull" targeting RU personnel on electric scooter).
  • Border Engagements: Intensive combat confirmed in Kursk Oblast (Ukrainian territory gains previously confirmed) and Sumy Oblast. Ukraine repelled RU breakthrough attempt into Sumy (CinC Syrskyi). 9 RU soldiers captured by UA DShV in Kursk.
  • Force Structure: Ukraine continues structural reforms (new Army Corps); Russia grants veteran status/exemptions to personnel involved in Kursk/border operations.

III. Frontline Situation (Selected Axes)

  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 39 RU assaults repelled (Apr 20). Intense fighting continues. UA claim of RU retreat West of Pokrovsk requires verification against GSh ZSU reports of ongoing heavy assaults. RU sources claim active offensive post-ceasefire.
  • Toretsk Axis: 10 RU assaults repelled (Apr 20). Ukrainian KIA confirmed in RU ambush during ceasefire. RU claims advances within Dachne settlement. Active RU offensive push reported post-ceasefire towards Romanivka, Dylyivka. RU claims units advancing near Niu-York. UA 28th Bde repelled RU motorcycle assault. Captured Chinese Type 56-1 rifles reported in RU use here.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): 5 RU attacks repelled (Apr 20). RU sources claim occupying most of the city, acknowledge difficult urban combat and heavy UA drone impact. Strategic importance for RU highlighted. RU TOS use confirmed. RU claim UA tank destroyed near Fedorivka Druha.
  • Lyman Axis: 12 RU attacks repelled (Apr 20). Confirmed RU engineering work on Zherebets River crossings. RU claims expanding control S of Yampolivka towards Torske.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk): 5 RU attacks repelled (Apr 20). DeepState confirms RU occupation of Katerynivka and advance near Preobrazhenka. RU claims repelling UA counter-attack near Bohatyr. RU claims destruction of UA Starlink.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 4 RU attacks repelled (Apr 20). RU reports intense post-ceasefire fighting, massive UA artillery (cluster munitions) and overwhelming FPV drone activity, heavily impacting RU logistics/resupply. Confirmed RU use of Mavic drones for water/med supply to isolated forward groups. Ukrainian counter-drone teams active. RU fundraising appeals highlight VDV needs.
  • Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): 1 RU attack unsuccessful (Apr 20). Critical RU Claim: Onyx missile strike allegedly destroyed buried UA CP near Chornobaivka (Apr 21), claimed high casualties including British national (Requires Verification). UA drone strikes target RU positions on islands and Left Bank. RU reports indicate UA drone crews reinforced on Right Bank.

IV. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

  • Ukraine:
    • Aid/Support: Ongoing deliveries (minibuses to AF/Naval Avn; equipment to 77th Airmobile Bde). Zaporizhzhia joined >$190M "Partnership for a Resilient Ukraine". "Proliska" mission continues aid efforts.
    • Capabilities: Effective drone/EW use. Successful deep/border strikes. Nuclear contingency prep (procuring Israeli radiation treatment). Potential NGU Corps formation reported by RU sources (Verify). MEDEVAC challenges highlighted.
    • Losses: Personnel KIA/WIA from RU ambush (Toretsk), RU strikes (Kherson claim), potentially near Bohatyr (RU claim).
  • Russia:
    • Losses: ~20 UAV operators KIA claimed (Tetkino strike). 9 POWs captured (Kursk). Tank, 2x Msta-S destroyed (Kharkiv). Buk-M2 SAM destroyed (claimed). Borisoglebsk-2 EW destroyed. MT-LBs destroyed. Min. 10 WIA in border drone strikes (ASTRA). RU soldier report confirms finding bodies, heavy fire (Basovka, Sumy). 2 soldiers found dead (Leningrad Oblast unit).
    • Logistics/Needs: Persistent fundraising appeals (drones, EW, comms, optics, ATVs). Confirmed use of Mavic drones for resupply under fire (Zaporizhzhia). Potential use of donkeys claimed (Butusov). Water supply issues reported in occupied areas. Poor conditions at Altai Krai base.
    • Capabilities: Large-scale air attacks. Engineering (river crossings). Use of captured Chinese rifles (Toretsk). Motorcycle/Electric Scooter assault tactics (vulnerable). Drone adaptation (Shahed recon, Mavic resupply, workshop assembly).

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Civilian Impact: Damage confirmed from overnight RU strikes in Kivsharivka (Kharkiv), Dnipropetrovsk communities, Cherkasy Oblast infrastructure. Previous civilian casualties reported (Kherson 3 KIA/3 WIA Apr 20). Ongoing threat from air strikes/shelling.
  • LOAC Violations/Concerns:
    • Confirmed: Ukrainian KIA in RU ambush during ceasefire (Toretsk). Attack on marked humanitarian vehicle ("Proliska") during ceasefire.
    • Putin's Justification: Statements justifying strikes on civilian objects if allegedly used militarily raise concerns about adherence to distinction/proportionality.
    • RU Allegations (Require Verification): Attack on RU evac group under white flags; UA obstruction of civilian evacuation (Huyevo, Kursk); UA use of nerve agent drones (likely disinformation).
  • Prisoners of War: Successful 246-for-246 exchange occurred during ceasefire. 9 Russian POWs captured by UA DShV (Kursk).

VI. Political & Diplomatic Context

  • Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership: Treaty formally ratified by Putin, deepening military-technical cooperation.
  • Negotiation Framework (Reported): Ongoing discussion around potential US-proposed framework (Crimea, NATO, frozen lines, ZNPP neutrality). Russia signals openness to talks but dismisses current proposals/conditions.
  • Russia Internal: Putin signs laws tightening control (foreign agents, discreditation, sabotage reporting, in absentia trials), impacting civil liberties. Laws also provide benefits/exemptions for certain military personnel (veteran status, conscription). Corruption probe in Kursk continues.
  • International: Death of Pope Francis noted. UK boosting domestic munitions production.

(End Summary)

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