Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine - January 16, 2025, 16:37 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region. Intense fighting continues around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian forces making significant advances. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity and confirmed Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russian territory. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with new sanctions, diplomatic efforts, and potential shifts in alliances.

Situation Update

Donetsk Region

• Toretsk: Russian forces control over 85% of the city. Fighting is approaching its culmination, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks and advancing towards the city, aiming to cut off access and encircle Ukrainian forces. They are within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka is cut, and one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro is reportedly cut off.
• Kurakhove: Mostly under Russian control, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part.
• Other Key Locations:
  • Russian forces have captured Shevchenko, Yantarne, Peschanoye, and Ukrainka.
  • Intense battles continue near Novovasylivka, Uspenivka, Novoandreevka, and Sribne.
  • Russian forces are making gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
• Ukrainian Strikes: Ukrainian forces report successful high-precision strikes on Russian command posts in Khartsyzk and Novohrodivka.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Russian Breakthrough: Russian forces have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberated several settlements, including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
• Intense Fighting: Ongoing in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Sudzha Area: Russian forces are advancing, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
• Impending Battle: Reports suggest an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region.
• Wagner Group: Video promoting recruitment circulates.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka.
• Fighting in Lyman Direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
• Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, destroying several Ukrainian strongholds.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
• Explosions have been reported in Kharkiv, with a drone attack confirmed. Three people were injured, and several cars were damaged.
• Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions.
• Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia: Confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities in Engels, Kazan, and Almetyevsk. Fires reported at oil depots and industrial plants.
• New Technology: Russian forces are reportedly using drones with fiber-optic cables, resistant to EW.
• Air Defenses: Ukrainian air defenses engaged hostile drones, shooting down 78 out of 110 overnight.
• Iranian Drones: Video evidence suggests Iran possesses a large number of drones with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities.
• Drone Attacks: Drones attacked a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers.

Other Key Developments

• Missile Attacks: Reports of missile attacks and threats in various regions, including Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava.
• Reported Terror Plot: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Russia planned terror attacks on aircraft. US intelligence reportedly warned the White House about Russian plans to plant explosives on cargo planes.
• US Sanctions: The US imposed new sanctions on about 250 individuals and legal entities tied to Russia.
• UK-Ukraine Partnership: British Prime Minister Kier Starmer is visiting Ukraine to sign a 100-year partnership agreement on defense and economic relations.
• Alleged North Korean Involvement: Reports of North Korean soldiers captured in the Kursk region and video evidence of North Korean casualties.
• Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: Reports suggest a potential phone call and meeting between Putin and Trump, without Zelensky's participation.
• Hostage Deal Negotiations: The Times of Israel reports on potential hostage release deal negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine is highly unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian advances in Donetsk, particularly around Toretsk and Pokrovsk, are significant and threaten to cut off Ukrainian supply lines. The stalled counteroffensive in Kursk and renewed Russian advances add to the pressure on Ukrainian forces. Drone warfare remains a significant threat, with both sides employing them extensively. The attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike strategic targets. The geopolitical landscape is complex, with ongoing diplomatic efforts, potential shifts in alliances, and the looming US presidential election adding further uncertainty.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter the Russian advance.
2. Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian drones.
3. Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents.
4. Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners, emphasizing the need for advanced weapons systems.
5. Counter Russian information operations: Promote accurate information about the conflict and expose Russian misinformation campaigns.
6. Address the humanitarian situation: Provide support to civilians affected by the conflict and work with international organizations to deliver aid.
7. Prepare for potential escalation: Develop contingency plans for a potential escalation of the conflict, including increased Russian airstrikes and the use of strategic bombers.
8. Address internal issues: Investigate reports of poor leadership, inadequate training, and low morale within Ukrainian forces.
9. Monitor the situation in Belarus: Given Belarus's approval of a concept for ensuring sovereignty in the digital sphere, monitor any potential implications for information warfare and cyber operations.
10. Assess the impact of North Korean involvement: Investigate the reports of captured North Korean soldiers and assess the potential impact of their involvement on the conflict.
11. Analyze the potential implications of a Trump-Putin meeting: Consider the potential impact of such a meeting on the conflict and Ukraine's interests.
12. Counter Russian advances in the Kursk region: Allocate additional resources and manpower to reinforce defensive positions and develop a comprehensive plan to regain lost territory.
13. Address the threat of terror attacks on aircraft: Enhance security measures at airports and on aircraft to mitigate the risk of potential attacks.
14. Monitor the situation in Gaza: Assess the potential impact of the hostage release deal negotiations on the conflict in Ukraine.
15. Prepare for a potential escalation in the information war: Develop strategies to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation, and promote accurate information about the conflict.
16. Enhance cyber warfare capabilities: Invest in and enhance Ukraine's cyber warfare capabilities to counter Russian cyber operations and protect critical infrastructure.
17. Address the drone threat: Develop and implement strategies to counter the increasing use of drones by both sides, including the deployment of counter-drone systems and the development of new tactics.
18. Monitor and respond to developments in the Kursk region: Pay close attention to the situation in the Kursk region, where Russian forces are attempting to dislodge Ukrainian troops. Assess the impact of the reported Ukrainian counterattacks and adjust strategies accordingly.
19. Prepare for potential escalation in the information war: Given the ongoing information war, develop strategies to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation. Promote accurate and timely information to domestic and international audiences, and work with international partners to expose and debunk false narratives.
20. Address the threat to energy infrastructure: Develop strategies to protect energy infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, hardening facilities against attacks, and developing redundant systems to ensure continuity of operations.
21. Enhance cyber warfare capabilities: Given the reported cyber attacks and the increasing use of technology in warfare, invest in and enhance Ukraine's cyber warfare capabilities. Develop offensive and defensive cyber capabilities to counter Russian cyber operations and protect Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
22. Monitor and respond to developments in the Kursk region: Pay close attention to the situation in the Kursk region, where Russian forces are attempting to dislodge Ukrainian troops. Assess the impact of the reported Ukrainian counterattacks and adjust strategies accordingly.
23. Prepare for potential escalation in the information war: Given the ongoing information war, develop strategies to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation. Promote accurate and timely information to domestic and international audiences, and work with international partners to expose and debunk false narratives.
24. Address the threat to energy infrastructure: Develop strategies to protect energy infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, hardening facilities against attacks, and developing redundant systems to ensure continuity of operations.
25. Enhance cyber warfare capabilities: Given the reported cyber attacks and the increasing use of technology in warfare, invest in and enhance Ukraine's cyber warfare capabilities. Develop offensive and defensive cyber capabilities to counter Russian cyber operations and protect Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
26. Monitor and respond to developments in the Kursk region: Pay close attention to the situation in the Kursk region, where Russian forces are attempting to dislodge Ukrainian troops. Assess the impact of the reported Ukrainian counterattacks and adjust strategies accordingly.
27. Prepare for potential escalation in the information war: Given the ongoing information war, develop strategies to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation. Promote accurate and timely information to domestic and international audiences, and work with international partners to expose and debunk false narratives.
28. Address the threat to energy infrastructure: Develop strategies to protect energy infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, hardening facilities against attacks, and developing redundant systems to ensure continuity of operations.
29. Enhance cyber warfare capabilities: Given the reported cyber attacks and the increasing use of technology in warfare, invest in and enhance Ukraine's cyber warfare capabilities. Develop offensive and defensive cyber capabilities to counter Russian cyber operations and protect Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The coming days and weeks will likely be crucial in determining the course of the conflict. The continued intensification of drone warfare and the threat of further missile and air strikes pose significant challenges to Ukrainian defenses. The targeting of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, adds another dimension to the conflict and could have significant implications for Ukraine's economy and civilian population. The new information about the prisoner exchange deal in Gaza, while not directly related to the situation in Ukraine, highlights the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the potential for further instability in the region. The statement from Israeli officials that they do not know if all 33 hostages to be released in the first stage of the deal are alive adds a layer of uncertainty to the situation. The alleged involvement of North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia could further complicate the situation and potentially draw in other actors. The reported Russian airstrike on a boarding school in Sudzha highlights the devastating impact of the conflict on civilians. The US threat of "significant consequences" for China if it aids Russia adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The potential deployment of French and British troops to Ukraine, as reported by The Telegraph, could significantly escalate the conflict and lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. The situation in the Kursk region is particularly concerning, with reports of an impending decisive battle and Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the area. The Russian advance towards Pokrovsk and the cutting of key supply routes pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The continued drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian operations. The reports of Russian internet blocking exercises and the planned terror attacks on aircraft add to the overall sense of instability and uncertainty.