Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 1, 2025, 16:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control, and the situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk is increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are within 3 kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border and have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro. In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed the liberation of Krymske in the Donetsk People's Republic. This further solidifies Russian control in the Toretsk area and adds to the pressure on Ukrainian defenses.

Drone warfare continues to intensify, with widespread drone attacks reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, including a significant drone attack on the Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery, causing a massive fire. The Ukrainian Air Force reports drones in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving west, and drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving north towards Kharkiv Oblast. New reports also show drones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts moving southwest, drones in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving west, and drones in Zhytomyr Oblast moving southwest.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and reporting the capture of several settlements.

A nationwide air raid alert is in effect across Ukraine, signaling a significant escalation in aerial threats.

Germany and 18 other EU countries have called for expanded defense financing through the European Investment Bank.

Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-1 near the Serebryansky Forest using two FPV drones. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 132 combat engagements on January 31st.

Key Developments in the Last 6 Hours

• Donetsk Region:

  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have reportedly taken control of the "Kuznya" pond and advanced to the "Krinichki" tract, nearing the "Yugo-Vostochny" mine. This would allow them visual observation of the southern part of Chasiv Yar and further advancement.
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces are advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk from Kurakhove. They are also attempting to encircle Dachne. A video reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition depot near Kurakhove.
  • Terniv: Russian forces have improved their tactical position with an advance near Terniv.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have advanced south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area.
  • Krymske: The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Krymske.
  • Siversk-Verkhnokamyanske: Russian forces launched an attack towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in the landing of troops in the central part of the settlement.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: New video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using FPV drones to target and destroy Russian armored vehicles, including a MaxxPro MRAP, in this area.

• Luhansk Region:

  • Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka. An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.

• Kursk Region:

  • Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky. Russian forces report the capture of Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
  • Video evidence shows drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in action, with reports of the capture and clearing of two strongholds south of Nikolaevo-Daryino.
  • Reports indicate significant North Korean casualties in the region.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.

• Kharkiv Region:

  • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack.
  • Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.

• Zaporizhzhia Region:

  • Russian forces report destroying a group of foreign mercenaries, including an Austrian special forces veteran, near Orikhiv.
  • Russia attacked the Zaporizhzhia region 401 times overnight.
  • Over 400 subscribers are without power due to damage to infrastructure.
  • New video evidence shows the aftermath of a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia.

• Drone Warfare:

  • Intensified drone warfare continues, with attacks reported across various regions.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reported on the movement of drones, with groups observed in Zhytomyr Oblast heading towards Starokostiantyniv, drones in the south of Chernihiv Oblast and the north of Poltava Oblast moving west, drones in the southwest of Sumy Oblast moving west, and drones in Kharkiv Oblast heading west and south.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force has announced a threat of ballistic weaponry from the northeast in regions where an air alert has been declared.
  • New reports indicate that at least five groups of "Shahed" drones have been launched from Olenya.
  • Explosions were reported in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
  • Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Kyiv region, with two multi-story buildings and six cars damaged. A fire also broke out at an enterprise, covering an area of 600 square meters.
  • A drone was shot down in the center of Energodar.
  • A video shows the moment of a Russian "Shahed" drone attack on a residential building in Sumy and its aftermath.
  • A video shows the aftermath of an attack on Poltava, with a completely destroyed entrance to a building and reports of casualties.
  • A video shows Ukrainian air defense operations against drones.
  • A video shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian positions in Toretsk.
  • A video shows the aftermath of a Russian drone attack on a residential building in Poltava.
  • Photos show the aftermath of an attack on the "Bristol" district in Odesa.
  • Video footage shows an explosion in Poltava, with reports of damage to a residential building and casualties.
  • Video footage shows the aftermath of a drone attack on Poltava.
  • A video shows the work of drone operators from the 69th Separate Covering Brigade of the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group in the Kursk region.
  • A video shows the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Anna Kyivska" repelling a Russian attack on the Pokrovsk direction, with one Russian soldier killed by small arms fire and another reportedly taking his own life after hearing an approaching FPV drone.
  • A video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region, with reports of the capture and clearing of two strongholds south of Nikolaevo-Daryino.
  • Video footage shows the work of Kurdish SDF FPV drone operators targeting Turkish equipment and pro-Turkish militants.
  • Video evidence suggests a strike on a nighttime industrial site, identified as the Kstovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
  • Operator БПЛА под Курском demonstrates the destruction of tanks, vehicles, and personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying various Russian equipment with FPV drones.
  • Video shows Russian forces downing a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone near Pokrovskoe (Krasnoarmeysk).
  • Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces reportedly destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian and Russian forces engaging in combat and destroying each other's equipment.
  • A video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region, with reports of the capture and clearing of two strongholds south of Nikolaevo-Daryino.
  • Video footage shows the work of Kurdish SDF FPV drone operators targeting Turkish equipment and pro-Turkish militants.
  • Video evidence suggests a strike on a nighttime industrial site, identified as the Kstovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
  • A video from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel shows the use of the TOS-1A "Solntsepek" against Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar.
  • A video from "Warrior DV" Telegram channel, shows operators of FPV drones from an army special forces unit targeting an American-made AGS Mk 19 automatic grenade launcher system.
  • A video from "Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian air defense operations against drones.
  • A video shows the moment of a Russian "Shahed" drone attack on a residential building in Sumy.
  • A video shows the aftermath of an attack on Poltava, with a completely destroyed entrance to a building.
  • A video shows Ukrainian air defense operations against drones.
  • A video shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian positions in Toretsk.
  • A video shows the aftermath of a Russian drone attack on a residential building in Poltava.
  • A video shows an explosion in Poltava, with reports of damage to a residential building.
  • A video shows the aftermath of a drone attack on Poltava.
  • A video shows a fundraising campaign for operators of UAVs of the 3rd MSD.
  • A video shows the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Anna Kyivska" repelling a Russian attack on the Pokrovsk direction.
  • A video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region.
  • A video shows Kurdish SDF FPV drone operators targeting Turkish equipment and pro-Turkish militants.
  • Video evidence suggests a strike on a nighttime industrial site, identified as the Kstovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region.
  • A video shows the work of drone operators from the 69th Separate Covering Brigade.
  • A video shows the moment of a Russian "Shahed" drone attack on a residential building in Sumy.
  • A video shows the aftermath of an attack on Poltava.
  • A video shows the aftermath of a drone attack on Poltava.
  • A video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region.
  • A video shows Kurdish SDF FPV drone operators targeting Turkish equipment and pro-Turkish militants.
  • Video evidence suggests a strike on a nighttime industrial site, identified as the Kstovo oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region.

• Other Regions:

  • Mykolaiv: Two people were killed as a result of a Russian missile strike on a food industry enterprise during the night.
  • Odesa: Damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties were reported due to a Russian drone attack. A powerful strike was carried out on the elite hotel "Bristol" in Odesa, where foreign mercenaries stayed.
  • Cherkasy: Overnight drone attack reported, with air defenses active and damage to an energy infrastructure facility in Uman.
  • Sumy: A Russian drone attack caused a fire in a residential building, resulting in three deaths and seven injuries.
  • Synelnykivskyi district: A lyceum was destroyed as a result of a Russian attack.
  • Chernihiv: A Russian airstrike caused a large fire in Chernihiv.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack.
  • Dnipro: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • Bryansk (Russia): Two Ukrainian drones were shot down. Reports of drones attacking the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station.
  • Tver (Russia): A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
  • Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone.
  • Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
  • A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga.
  • Lipetsk (Russia): An air danger regime has been declared.
  • Abkhazia: The Parliament of Abkhazia is considering a bill to expand voting opportunities for citizens in Russia.
  • Ulyanovsk (Russia): Temporary restrictions have been introduced at the airport.
  • Black Sea: A Ukrainian unmanned boat heading towards Crimea was destroyed in the northwestern part of the Black Sea.
  • Russia: Nine Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight.
  • Myrhorod district of Poltava Oblast, enemy attacks on energy infrastructure have been reported, leaving 164 residential and 1 business consumer without power. Restoration work is underway.
  • Poltava: A Russian drone attack targeted a residential building, causing a fire. Emergency services are on site.

Military Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure, with reports indicating a potential collapse of defenses in Toretsk. The new reports of significant Russian advances in Chasiv Yar, including the beginning of cleanup operations in the railway station area, indicate a further deterioration of the situation for Ukrainian forces in this area.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. The Ukrainian military confirmed the use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return. This new capability potentially allows Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian territory and could significantly impact the course of the conflict. The increased drone activity, with reports of drones targeting Zaporizhzhia, suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare. The new reports of at least five groups of "Shahed" drones being launched from Olenya indicate a potential intensification of Russian drone attacks. The new reports of drone movements from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate continued drone activity in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The threat of ballistic weapons from the northeast adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The new updates regarding drone movements towards Starokostiantyniv and other areas further emphasize the widespread and evolving nature of the drone threat. The reported enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia with 18 UAVs, resulting in damage to civilian infrastructure and fires, underscores the continued targeting of civilian areas and the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.

The situation in the Kursk region indicates a shift in momentum, with Russian forces regaining territory and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. The reported involvement of North Korean soldiers adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The increased drone activity across multiple regions suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage through the use of UAVs. The attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale.

The Ukrainian military is facing significant challenges in maintaining defensive positions and countering Russian advances. The reported losses in personnel and equipment, coupled with the ongoing pressure on multiple fronts, are likely straining Ukrainian capabilities.

There is discussion about the potential use of North Korean M1989 Koksan super howitzers by Russian forces.

New video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows Russian artillery from the "Vostok" group targeting Ukrainian forces in the South Donetsk direction.

The new reports of attacks on educational institutions, residential buildings, and a car wash in Zaporizhzhia indicate a continued pattern of Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure. The restoration of power in Zaporizhzhia is a positive development, but the ongoing threat of attacks remains.

The new reports of the destruction of a Ukrainian unmanned boat in the Black Sea and the downing of nine Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight indicate continued efforts by Russian forces to counter Ukrainian aerial and naval threats. The presence of one Russian Kalibr missile carrier in the Black Sea, with a capacity of up to four missiles, poses a continued threat to Ukrainian territory. The absence of Russian ships in the Azov Sea suggests a possible shift in naval strategy or a temporary lull in activity in that area. The presence of six Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including two Kalibr missile carriers with a total capacity of up to 22 missiles, indicates a significant Russian naval presence in the region, potentially posing a threat to NATO interests and maritime traffic. The continued movement of ships through the Kerch Strait highlights the strategic importance of this waterway for Russia's logistical and operational activities.

The new reports of six Ukrainian soldiers surrendering under Kurakhovo and their claims of being abandoned by their command, if true, could indicate morale problems within Ukrainian units in this area. This could be exploited by Russian forces for propaganda purposes and could potentially lead to further surrenders. The soldiers' statements about receiving medical treatment and good treatment from Russian forces could also be used in information operations.

Strategic Implications

The continued Russian advances and the intensity of the fighting suggest that the conflict may be entering a new phase, with a potential shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces. The situation requires a reassessment of Ukrainian defensive strategies and a focus on strengthening positions, securing supply lines, and enhancing counter-drone capabilities.

The international community's response to the evolving situation will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict. Continued military and financial aid to Ukraine, particularly in the form of air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, and counter-drone technology, will be essential in bolstering Ukrainian defenses. The confirmation of a 90-day freeze on US foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine, has significant implications. Trump's announcement of a potential conversation with Putin adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation.

The potential involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, if confirmed, could further complicate the geopolitical landscape.

The ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, indicate a deliberate strategy by Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian services and impact civilian morale.

The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights the importance of electronic warfare capabilities in modern conflict. The ability to counter enemy drones, disrupt their communications, and protect friendly forces from enemy surveillance will be crucial for maintaining an advantage on the battlefield.

The new air raid alerts and reports of drone activity underscore the need for Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities and to prepare for potential escalations in aerial warfare.

The new reports of drone movements indicate a continued threat across multiple regions, requiring heightened vigilance and the deployment of air defense and counter-drone measures. The threat of ballistic weapons from the northeast adds another layer of complexity to the situation and requires Ukraine to prepare for potential missile attacks.

New Developments

• Drone Capabilities: The Ukrainian military confirmed the use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return. The confirmed use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return has significant strategic implications. This new capability potentially allows Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian territory and could significantly impact the course of the conflict.
• Netherlands Military Aid: The Netherlands announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, including additional F-16 fighter jets, 400 million euros for drones, and cooperation on long-range weapons projects.
• US Aid Uncertainty: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly assured the Italian Foreign Minister that the US will not abandon Ukraine, despite the confirmed 90-day freeze on most foreign aid, including military aid to Ukraine.
• Ammunition Supplies: The Czech Republic has reportedly supplied Ukraine with 1.5 million ammunition rounds, including a third being 155mm artillery shells.
• Allegations of Ukrainian Atrocities: A captured Ukrainian soldier gave a graphic account of atrocities committed by the 92nd Assault Brigade in the village of Russkoye Porechnoye, Kursk region, including the murder of 22 civilians and the rape of 8 women. A video from Selidovo provides further accounts of alleged atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces, including shootings and beatings of civilians. The video also claims that Ukrainian forces indiscriminately shelled the city and looted from residents.
• Bryansk (Russia):
  • Two Ukrainian drones were shot down.
  • Reports that drones attacked the village of Mamai, with an explosion near the "Druzhba" oil pipeline distribution station.
  • The Bryansk region is reportedly under attack, with a series of explosions in the sky above the city.
  • A fire has broken out in one of the districts.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region.
  • 26 drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region overnight.
  • Residents of Klimovo and Novozybkov in the Bryansk region reported explosions and subsequent fires. It is alleged that drones attempted to attack the "Novozybkov" oil pumping station of the "Druzhba" pipeline.
• Tver (Russia):
  • A fuel transfer station was reportedly attacked by Ukrainian drones.
  • A drone was shot down.
• Belgorod (Russia): A private house was attacked by a drone.
• Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
• A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.
• Massive Drone Attack:
  • Over 100 drones attacked central Russia and the south overnight.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed.
  • The enemy reportedly targeted oil refineries, enterprises, and the Smolensk nuclear power plant.
  • Most attacks were repelled, but some fires broke out at the targeted facilities.
  • Drones attacked the fourth largest oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod.
• Lipetsk (Russia): An air danger regime has been declared.
• Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War: Held an online meeting with the families of the soldiers of the reactive artillery division of the 36th separate marine brigade named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Bilinsky.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. Russian forces, with an advance near Terniv, have improved their tactical position and destroyed three strongholds, a Western artillery installation, and several Ukrainian vehicles. Russian troops are trying to encircle Dachne to the west of Kurakhove. Russian forces are advancing, with battles ongoing near Udachne. The intensity of the fighting is comparable to that in Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost the village of Novoselivka Persha. Ukrainian forces report repelling 7 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka. In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Drone Attacks: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack, causing power and water supply issues. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation were reported in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
• Military Equipment:
  • Ukrainian forces received 290 new drones.
  • FPV drones, drone operators destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers, used to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions, successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area, used for 6 minutes of continuous strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian positions and personnel in the Kursk region. A Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle in the Kursk region.
  • UAVs, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight, Ukrainian forces shot down 39 drones overnight, used for attack on Kharkiv hit a private sector in the Kholodnohirskyi district, used for attack on residential buildings in Odesa, used for attack on an energy infrastructure facility in Uman, used for attack on an apartment building in Sumy, used for attack on a residential building in Sumy. Ukrainian forces targeted and destroyed a Russian "Orlan" UAV ground control station using a missile strike.
  • A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" used to attack concentrations of militants in Chasiv Yar.
  • Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region with Su-25 aircraft, launching missiles at low altitudes.
  • Guided aerial bombs used by enemy tactical aviation in the north of Kharkiv region, used by enemy tactical aviation on Dobropillya in the Donetsk region.
  • "Shahed" Drones:** Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using "Shahed" drones.
  • Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs on the Sumy region.
  • 2S43 Malva Self-Propelled Howitzer: Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and damaged a Russian 2S43 Malva.
  • Leopard 2A6 tank decoys: Reportedly proven effective, drawing attacks from Russian drones.
  • BM-21 "Grad" and ZRK "Strela-10": Russian airborne forces used these systems to target Ukrainian positions and a "Valkyrie" drone near Chasiv Yar and Artemivsk.
  • Ka-52M helicopters: Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
  • Mi-28NM helicopter: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • BMP-2: Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region.
  • "Courier" ground robotic complex: Russian forces have deployed the "Courier" ground robotic complex, equipped with an AGS-17 automatic grenade launcher, in the Kupyansk area. The system is reportedly designed for delivering ammunition, evacuating wounded, and reconnaissance.
• Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration: Reported that they provided equipment and technology worth nearly 130 million hryvnias to 45 units of the Defense Forces in January, including over 1500 FPV drones and Mavics, as well as electronic warfare equipment.
• Ukrainian Air Force: Reported that 59 out of 102 enemy drones were shot down during the night of January 31, with another 37 "locationally lost" without negative consequences. Reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north.
• Lipetsk Oblast in Russia: Has declared an air danger regime.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in multiple directions, including near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, Ivanivka, Sverdlikovo, Guevo, Alekseevka, Uspenivka, Kotlyne, Tsarskoye Stavok, Dolgoprudnaya Balka, and Novosergievka. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. Russian forces, with an advance near Terniv, have improved their tactical position and destroyed three strongholds, a Western artillery installation, and several Ukrainian vehicles. Russian troops are trying to encircle Dachne to the west of Kurakhove. Russian forces are advancing, with battles ongoing near Udachne. The intensity of the fighting is comparable to that in Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost the village of Novoselivka Persha. Ukrainian forces report repelling 7 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka. In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Drone Attacks: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack, causing power and water supply issues. Repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation were reported in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
• Military Equipment:
  • Ukrainian forces received 290 new drones.
  • FPV drones, drone operators destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers, used to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions, successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area, used for 6 minutes of continuous strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian positions and personnel in the Kursk region. A Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle in the Kursk region.
  • UAVs, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces shot down 37 drones overnight, Ukrainian forces shot down 39 drones overnight, used for attack on Kharkiv hit a private sector in the Kholodnohirskyi district, used for attack on residential buildings in Odesa, used for attack on an energy infrastructure facility in Uman, used for attack on an apartment building in Sumy, used for attack on a residential building in Sumy. Ukrainian forces targeted and destroyed a Russian "Orlan" UAV ground control station using a missile strike.
  • A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" used to attack concentrations of militants in Chasiv Yar.
  • Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region with Su-25 aircraft, launching missiles at low altitudes.
  • Guided aerial bombs used by enemy tactical aviation in the north of Kharkiv region, used by enemy tactical aviation on Dobropillya in the Donetsk region.
  • "Shahed" Drones:** Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using "Shahed" drones.
  • Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs on the Sumy region.
  • 2S43 Malva Self-Propelled Howitzer: Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and damaged a Russian 2S43 Malva.
  • Leopard 2A6 tank decoys: Reportedly proven effective, drawing attacks from Russian drones.
  • BM-21 "Grad" and ZRK "Strela-10": Russian airborne forces used these systems to target Ukrainian positions and a "Valkyrie" drone near Chasiv Yar and Artemivsk.
  • Ka-52M helicopters: Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
  • Mi-28NM helicopter: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • BMP-2: Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region.
  • "Courier" ground robotic complex: Russian forces have deployed the "Courier" ground robotic complex, equipped with an AGS-17 automatic grenade launcher, in the Kupyansk area. The system is reportedly designed for delivering ammunition, evacuating wounded, and reconnaissance.

Military Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The capture of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and Toretsk are under immense pressure, with reports indicating a potential collapse of defenses in Toretsk. The new reports of significant Russian advances in Chasiv Yar, including the beginning of cleanup operations in the railway station area, indicate a further deterioration of the situation for Ukrainian forces in this area.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. The Ukrainian military confirmed the use of a long-range drone capable of carrying a 250-kilogram bomb and traveling up to 2000 km with the possibility of return. This new capability potentially allows Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russian territory and could significantly impact the course of the conflict. The increased drone activity, with reports of drones targeting Zaporizhzhia, suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare. The new reports of at least five groups of "Shahed" drones being launched from Olenya indicate a potential intensification of Russian drone attacks. The new reports of drone movements from the Ukrainian Air Force indicate continued drone activity in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The threat of ballistic weapons from the northeast adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The new updates regarding drone movements towards Starokostiantyniv and other areas further emphasize the widespread and evolving nature of the drone threat. The reported enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia with 18 UAVs, resulting in damage to civilian infrastructure and fires, underscores the continued targeting of civilian areas and the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.

The situation in the Kursk region indicates a shift in momentum, with Russian forces regaining territory and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. The reported involvement of North Korean soldiers adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The increased drone activity across multiple regions suggests a potential escalation in aerial warfare, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage through the use of UAVs. The attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities,