Russian forces are making advances in multiple directions, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. They are leveraging their drone advantage and have reportedly integrated AI into Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces are conducting a fighting withdrawal in some areas, focusing on counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops. The situation remains highly volatile, with intense fighting and ongoing drone attacks.

Here are the key updates from the last 30 minutes:

Drone Warfare

• New Drone Movements:
  • Three drones are moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
  • Four drones are approaching Chuhuiv/Kharkiv. Anti-aircraft operations may be active.
  • Two drones are moving from the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kharkiv Oblast.
  • One drone is in the Zlatopil area and has turned towards Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • New Shahed drones from the Black Sea are heading towards the south of Odesa Oblast.
  • Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
  • A new group of Shahed drones is heading from the Black Sea towards the south of the Odesa region.
  • New Shahed drones are heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
  • Three Shahed drones are approaching Bilyaivka either through or near the town. Three new Shahed drones are moving from the Black Sea towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, with one potentially heading towards Ovidiopol.
  • Three Shahed drones are heading towards Kurortne through Bilyaivka. One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions. Two Shahed drones are moving from the Kharkiv region to the Poltava region. Three Shahed drones are in the Lozova area of the Kharkiv region, heading north.
  • 3 drones are moving through Bilyaivka towards Kurortne. 1 drone is circling around the border of Sumy and Poltava oblasts. 2 drones are moving from Kharkiv to Poltava. 3 drones are in Lozova area, heading north.
  • 3 drones via Rozdilna are heading towards Odesa Oblast.
  • 2 drones via Bilyaivka are heading towards Odesa.
  • 1 new drone from the Black Sea is heading towards Ovidiopol.
  • 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv.
  • 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy.
  • 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest.
  • 1 drone turned towards Odesa, expect loud activity.
  • One drone from the Odesa region is flying towards the Vinnytsia region. One drone is approaching Rozdilna. One drone is flying towards Odesa. The northern direction is being clarified.
  • One drone is flying from the Mykolaiv region towards the Odesa region, to the north of the region.
• Explosions in Odesa: Explosions have been reported in Odesa.
• Drone Operators:
  • Operators of the FPV group "Sever" hit three Ukrainian Armed Forces dugouts with three kamikaze drones in the Kharkiv direction.
  • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
• Anti-Drone Measures: Video evidence shows a mobile, vehicle-mounted "Repellent-Patrul" anti-drone system.
• Drone Production: Latvia plans to transfer 1000 drones to Ukraine by the end of 2024 and allocate 20 million euros for drone procurement in 2025.

Ground Operations

Donetsk Oblast

• Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city and are advancing in the western part near the thermal power plant. Ukrainian forces no longer control the territory of the Kurakhivska TPP. A Russian flag has been raised in Kurakhove.
• Pokrovsk: Heavy fighting is reported, with Russian forces making incremental gains in the surrounding areas. They are advancing towards Krasnoarmiisk, with reports of Russian DRGs operating in Pokrovsk itself.
• Vremivka Direction: Russian forces have captured Storozheve and are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka, creating a new "pocket". Ukrainian forces are reportedly encircled in Makarivka.
• Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces controlling over half the city and having taken control of the railway station.
• Dzerzhinsk: Russian forces are advancing, with fighting ongoing in the center of the town. They have reportedly advanced to the central market along Mayakovsky Street.
• Other: Russian forces have taken control of Novoolenivka.

Kharkiv Oblast

• Russian forces have liberated Lozovaya.
• Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction.
• Increased drone activity is reported.

Kursk Region

• Russian forces are pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts.
• Russian airborne troops have taken control of Cherkaska Konopelka.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone operation targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
• Russian Ministry of Defense reports repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory.
• A North Korean soldier reportedly shot three Russian soldiers during a retreat.

Other Regions

• Sumy Region: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush on Russian forces. Explosions were reported.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian communication tower and a supply depot.
• Crimea, Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and Voronezh Oblast: Air raid alerts due to the threat of Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
• Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian drone attack targeted a hospital in Aleshki resulting in casualties.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Aid: The US announced a final aid package for Ukraine from the Biden administration, totaling $15 billion in credit secured by frozen Russian assets. An additional $2.5 billion was also provided.
• Slovakia: Slovak Minister of Defense, Robert Kaliňák, suggested Ukraine might have to cede territory to Russia.
• Russia-Iran: Reports indicate a potential strategic pact between Russia and Iran is in the works.
• Azerbaijan-Russia: Tensions escalating, with Azerbaijan reportedly changing rules for Russian citizens' stays.
• Belarus-Russia: Belarus has joined the Russian state procurement system.
• Israel-Yemen: The Israeli military reportedly used a US-supplied THAAD system to intercept a ballistic missile launched from Yemen.
• Moldova-Russia: The Russian Foreign Ministry accused NATO of attempting to turn Moldova into a logistics hub for supplying the Ukrainian army.
• Syria: The head of the Syrian administration stated that the new Syrian authorities do not want Russia to leave their country.

Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The capture of the railway station in Chasiv Yar and advances in Novoolenivka, Kurakhove and other key locations represent significant setbacks for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The increased fighting in the Kursk region, including reports of North Korean troops, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The continued reliance on drone warfare by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the battlefield, with the attack on the hospital in Aleshki marking a significant escalation and a potential war crime. The reported infighting between Russian and North Korean troops, if confirmed, could indicate significant morale and command-and-control issues within the Russian-led forces. The international support for Ukraine remains strong, with the US providing additional military aid, but divisions within the EU may be emerging. The information warfare dimension of the conflict continues to be significant, with both sides actively shaping the narrative through propaganda and disinformation. The prisoner exchange is a notable development, with 189 Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians being returned. The involvement of Belarus in hosting the released Russian soldiers could further complicate the situation. Reports of Russian advances in the Sudzha area, if confirmed, could indicate a new offensive push by Russian forces in the Kursk region, potentially aimed at diverting Ukrainian forces from other fronts. The arrest of the Ukrainian commander and his potential removal from office could have significant implications for the Ukrainian military's operational capabilities in the region. The ongoing drone attacks and movements across multiple regions suggest that both sides are actively probing defenses and seeking opportunities to strike. The situation remains fluid and highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation in the coming days and weeks.