Daily Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine - February 17, 2025 (End of Day)

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: Military Intelligence AI Assistant Date: February 18, 2025 (06:15 UTC - Covering reports from February 17, 15:28 UTC to February 18, 06:12 UTC)

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I. Executive Summary

February 17-18, 2025, witnessed a dramatic escalation in both military operations and diplomatic activity, creating a highly volatile and dangerous situation for Ukraine. The day was characterized by:

1. Massive, Sustained Russian Drone and Missile Attacks: Russia launched an unprecedented, multi-wave drone attack across nearly all of Ukraine, followed by missile strikes and guided aerial bomb attacks. This strained Ukrainian air defenses and caused confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure, including a residential building, resulting in casualties.
2. Confirmed Russian Advances: Russian forces made confirmed tactical gains in multiple locations:
   • Yampolivka (Donetsk Oblast): Captured. A significant loss for Ukraine.
   • Krasnoarmeisk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Intensified efforts and consolidation, with Zverevo identified as a critical point.
   • Near Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast): Expanded bridgehead on the Oskil River.
   • Kursk Oblast (Inside Russia): Advances near Sverdlikovo and towards Sudzha. Fighting within Russian territory.
   • Near Chasiv Yar: Russian forces advanced towards Stupochki.
   • Near Ulakly: Russian forces are eliminating a "pocket".
   • Konstantinopol Direction: Russian forces are advancing towards Konstantinopol
   • West of Borova: Russian forces made a 2km push.
   • Near Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka: Reports that the situations are worsening.
3. Escalating Air Warfare:
   • Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Extensive use by Russia, particularly in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts.
   • Ballistic Missile Threats: Multiple alerts and confirmed launches, targeting various regions.
   • Russian Air Activity: Increased use of attack helicopters within Russian territory bordering Ukraine.
4. US-Russia Negotiations (Extreme Priority):
   • Confirmed Talks in Riyadh: High-level talks took place, excluding Ukraine.
   • Key Agreements:
     • Establishment of formal negotiation teams specifically for Ukraine.
     • Restoration of embassy staff in Moscow and Washington.
     • Commitment to continued dialogue and expanded cooperation on "geopolitical issues, economics, and investment" after the Ukraine crisis is resolved.
   • Three-Stage Peace Plan (Reported, Denied): Fox News reported a proposed three-stage plan (ceasefire, elections, peace agreement), but both sides deny its existence.
   • Pressure on Ukraine: US Secretary of State Rubio called for concessions from all sides. Reports of a potential highly unfavorable economic agreement for Ukraine, requiring control over resources, surfaced and require urgent verification.
   • Lavrov's Statements: The Russian Foreign Minister emphasized "respect for each other's interests," but also reiterated Russia's hardline stance on NATO expansion.
   • Kellogg's Visit: US special envoy Keith Kellogg is travelling to Kyiv, highlighting the urgency of the situation.
   • Zelensky Cancels visit to Saudi Arabia.
5. European Division on Troop Deployment: European leaders failed to reach an agreement on sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, highlighting divisions within the alliance.
6. Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia: Ukrainian drones continue to target infrastructure inside Russia, with confirmed attacks on oil facilities.
7. Intense Information Warfare: Both sides continue to engage in extensive propaganda and disinformation efforts, making verification of claims challenging.
8. Significant new package of German military aid confirmed.

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II. Detailed Assessments and Recommendations by Key Area

A. Military Operations

1. Drone and Missile Attacks (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: The massive, multi-wave drone and missile attacks represent a major escalation by Russia, aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses, damaging critical infrastructure, and terrorizing the civilian population. The use of "drone imitators" adds complexity. The reported damage to civilian infrastructure, including a residential building in Kirovohrad Oblast, is a war crime.
   • Recommendations:
     • Maintain maximum air defense readiness across all of Ukraine, prioritizing protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
     • Deploy all available resources to counter drone and missile threats, including electronic warfare systems.
     • Continue to improve early warning systems and response times.
     • Document all attacks on civilian targets as evidence of war crimes.
     • Provide immediate assistance to affected civilians.

2. Russian Advances (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Russian forces have made confirmed and significant tactical gains in several areas, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The capture of Yampolivka and advances in the Pokrovsk direction (especially the claimed destruction of a bridge near Pervomaiske) are major setbacks for Ukraine.
   • Recommendations:
     • Urgently verify all reported Russian advances, particularly near Krasnoarmeisk, Ulakly, and Konstantinopol.
     • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in threatened areas, deploying additional troops and equipment.
     • Prepare for potential counteroffensives to regain lost territory and prevent further Russian breakthroughs.
     • Assess and address logistical challenges caused by damaged infrastructure (e.g., the bridge near Pervomaiske).
     • Increase reconnaissance and surveillance to detect Russian troop movements and preparations.

3. Air Warfare (High Priority):

   • Assessment: Russia's extensive use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) poses a major threat. Increased Russian helicopter activity near the border and continued reports of tactical aviation activity suggest a continued focus on air power.
   • Recommendations:
     • Prioritize air defense systems capable of intercepting guided bombs.
     • Maintain high alert in regions facing KAB threats (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk).
     • Monitor Russian air activity and prepare for potential escalations.

4. Ukrainian Counter-Operations (High Priority):

   • Assessment: Ukrainian forces continue to conduct effective drone strikes on Russian targets, demonstrating precision strike capabilities. Confirmed strikes on Russian energy infrastructure inside Russia represent a significant escalation.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue to exploit Russian vulnerabilities with drone warfare, targeting logistics, command and control, and high-value assets.
     • Develop and deploy countermeasures against Russian electronic warfare and fiber-optic guided drones.
     • Maintain and enhance Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities.

B. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Situation

1. US-Russia Negotiations (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: The talks in Riyadh represent a major diplomatic development, with the potential for significant consequences for Ukraine. The establishment of formal negotiating channels and the agreement to address broader issues (geopolitics, economics, investment) suggest a potential shift towards a negotiated settlement. However, the lack of Ukrainian participation and the pressure for concessions are extremely concerning.
   • Recommendations:
     • Urgently seek clarification from the US regarding the details of the talks, the reported agreements, and the potential implications for Ukraine.
     • Insist on direct Ukrainian participation in all negotiations affecting its future.
     • Coordinate closely with European allies to present a unified front and resist pressure to make unacceptable concessions.
     • Prepare for various scenarios, including a potential deal that undermines Ukraine's interests.
     • Develop a clear negotiating strategy that prioritizes Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security guarantees.

2. Kellogg's Visit to Kyiv (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Kellogg's visit is a critical opportunity for Ukraine to directly convey its concerns and priorities to a key figure in the Trump administration. It also presents a risk of increased pressure to make concessions.
   • Recommendations:
     • Prepare a clear and concise briefing for Kellogg, outlining Ukraine's position on negotiations, red lines, and desired outcomes.
     • Emphasize the need for strong security guarantees and continued Western support.
     • Coordinate with European allies to ensure a consistent message.

3. European Division (High Priority):

   • Assessment: The lack of consensus among European leaders on deploying peacekeeping troops highlights divisions within the alliance and weakens Ukraine's position.
   • Recommendations:
     • Intensify diplomatic efforts to bridge the gap between European countries.
     • Emphasize the need for a unified European response to Russian aggression.
     • Seek concrete commitments from individual European countries on military and financial support.

4. Potential US Economic Deal (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: This would destroy Ukraine's economy.
   • Recommendations:
     • Verify all claims.
     • Develop a response to a potential deal.
     • Consider reaching out to European allies for assistance.

C. Internal Security

1. Espionage and Sabotage (High Priority):
   • Assessment: Continued arrests of alleged spies and saboteurs highlight the ongoing threat of Russian infiltration and internal security risks.
   • Recommendations:
     • Maintain vigilance and enhance counterintelligence efforts.
     • Thoroughly vet personnel with access to sensitive information or critical infrastructure.
     • Increase security measures at military installations and key facilities.

D. Information Warfare

1. Countering Disinformation (High Priority):
   • Assessment: The information environment remains highly contested, with both sides engaging in extensive propaganda and disinformation efforts.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue to proactively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda.
     • Highlight Russian war crimes and violations of international law.
     • Promote accurate information through reliable media channels and international platforms.

E. Other

1. Chernobyl (High Priority):

   • Assessment: The damage to the sarcophagus is concerning, though no immediate radiation leak is reported.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue monitoring the situation closely.
     • Cooperate with international organizations (IAEA) to assess the damage and ensure long-term safety.

2. Claimed Destruction of NASAMS (Extreme Priority, Verification Needed):

   • Assessment: If true, this would be a major loss for Ukraine.
   • Recommendations:
     • Urgently verify this claim.

3. Claimed Improvement of North Korean Missiles (High Priority, Verification Needed):

   • Assessment: If true, this would be a major threat.
   • Recommendation: Verify this claim.

4. Claimed Depletion of Weapon Stockpiles (Extreme Priority, Verification Needed):

   • Assessment: This could make continued support difficult.
   • Recommendation: Verify this claim.

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III. Overall Assessment

The situation in Ukraine has deteriorated significantly over the past 24 hours. The combination of intense military pressure, escalating air and missile threats, and a highly uncertain geopolitical environment creates an extremely dangerous and volatile situation. Russia is making confirmed advances on multiple fronts, and the US-Russia negotiations, while potentially offering a path to de-escalation, also pose significant risks to Ukraine. Immediate and decisive action is required to address the multiple, interconnected threats, with a particular focus on:

• Responding to Russian military advances.
• Countering the ongoing air and missile attacks.
• Preparing for Kellogg's visit and engaging effectively in diplomatic efforts.
• Ensuring Ukrainian involvement in all negotiations affecting its future.
• Verifying and responding to key claims, and countering Russian claims.
• Maintaining internal security and countering Russian espionage.
• Addressing the humanitarian crisis.

The potential for further escalation remains extremely high. Constant vigilance, rapid response capabilities, and strong international support are essential for Ukraine's survival.