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Daily Report: 2025-04-08 15:02:10

(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine

Date: April 8, 2025 As of: 14:40 UTC Reporting Period: April 7, 13:00 UTC - April 8, 14:40 UTC

(Analysis based on consolidated reports including UGS updates up to 13:00 UTC Apr 8, Regional Military Administrations, Operational Commands, open-source intelligence, and other available data.)

I. Overall Situation & Strategic Assessment

  • Operational Tempo: Combat intensity remains High across the Eastern Front and Northern Border regions. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 94 combat engagements since the start of the day (as of 13:00 UTC), following 159 in the preceding 24 hours. Russian forces maintain significant offensive pressure, utilizing KABs, artillery, FPV drones, and ground assaults extensively.
  • Primary Threat Axes: The Pokrovsk (highest intensity, 42 attempts since morning), Toretsk (14 attempts), Lyman (8 attempts), Novopavlivsk (7 attempts), and Kursk/Sumy border zone (10 ongoing engagements) remain the focal points of Russian efforts.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border Situation:
    • Russian Control Confirmed: Russian MoD and multiple sources confirm the capture of Huyevo (Kursk Oblast), with ongoing "clearing operations" reported. Russian forces involved are identified as elements of the 22nd MRR, 72nd MSD (44th AC, "North" Group).
    • Ongoing Engagements: Fighting continues near Hornal and Oleshnia (Kursk), claimed by Russia as the last UA-held points in the oblast. Heavy RU air/arty strikes reported. 8 engagements were ongoing as of 13:00 UTC (UGS).
    • Ukrainian Counter-Actions: Ukrainian SSO previously confirmed repelling a RU raid near Loknya (Kursk) on Apr 6, capturing a PoW, indicating continued UA presence and activity near the border, challenging RU narratives of complete expulsion.
    • Sumy Border: Persistent RU shelling and KAB strikes continue. DeepState assesses an expanding "grey zone" near the Zhuravka-Sudzha KPP area.
  • Capture of Chinese Nationals (Donetsk Oblast):
    • Confirmation: President Zelenskyy and the 81st Airmobile Brigade confirmed capturing two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia near Tarasivka/Bilohorivka. Documents recovered; SBU investigating. Intelligence suggests potentially more present.
    • Diplomatic Significance: Ukrainian MFA summoned the Chinese Chargé d'Affaires. This development potentially impacts international relations and perceptions of foreign involvement. President Zelenskyy suggested it might influence US attendance at the upcoming Ramstein meeting.
  • Russian Ground Robotics Focus: High-level Russian emphasis (MinDef Belousov) on significantly increasing UGV production and deployment in 2025, aiming for integration into a unified unmanned network across domains.
  • Russian Strike Activity: Continued high volume. Major incident remains the Kryvyi Rih strike (Apr 4) using Iskander-M cluster munition (20 KIA, >90 WIA). Ongoing KAB, drone, OTRK, MLRS strikes impact frontline and rear areas. Civilian casualties reported in Vovchansk (1 WIA) and Malinivka (1 WIA) on Apr 8.
  • Ukrainian Strike Activity: Notable successes claimed, including destruction of RU truck with TOS rockets near Pesky-Selydove, heavy losses inflicted repelling RU assaults (Nadiia, Bohdanivka), and shootdown of Merlin-VR UAV (Lyman). Continued focus on degrading Russian energy infrastructure (Kursk NPP line, Novohorivka substation damage claimed by RU; Promsintez plant hit confirmed).
  • Potential Ceasefire Mentions: Statements by UA NatSec Committee Secretary Kostenko and President Zelenskyy regarding potential conditions for a ceasefire in May require careful monitoring, though skepticism about longevity/viability persists.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Updates)

Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (Intensity High)

  • Huyevo (Kursk): Confirmed Russian control. MoD footage shows 22nd MRR/72nd MSD presence, "clearing operations".
  • Hornal / Oleshnia (Kursk): Fighting ongoing. Intense RU strikes. UGS reports 8 ongoing Russian engagements (13:00 UTC).
  • Loknya (Kursk): Ukrainian forces confirmed repelling RU raid (Apr 6), capturing PoW, countering RU control narrative.
  • Sumy Border: Persistent RU shelling/KAB strikes. DeepState assesses expanding "grey zone" near Zhuravka-Sudzha. RU claims consolidating positions after border breach.

Kharkiv Axis

  • No RU Ground Assaults Reported (UGS 13:00 UTC). Situation assessed complex but stable (OTU Kharkiv).
  • Strikes: Ongoing RU air/drone/arty attacks. 1 civilian WIA in Vovchansk (drone). RU claims Iskander strike near Vysokyi.
  • Counter-UAV: UA 154th OMBr actively intercepting RU recon UAVs.

Kupyansk Axis

  • Intensity Moderate: 2 RU assaults near Stepova Novosilivka, Zahryzove repelled; 1 ongoing (UGS 13:00).
  • Defensive Success: UA forces previously confirmed repel of RU "turtle tank" assault.

Lyman Axis

  • Intensity High: 8 RU attacks near Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Kolodiazi; 5 ongoing (UGS 13:00).
  • Katerynivka: Confirmed Russian control.
  • Torske: Persistent RU claim of advance into northern part.
  • Counter-UAV: UA forces claimed shootdown of RU Merlin-VR UAV (Apr 8 video).

Siversk Axis

  • No RU Ground Assaults Reported (UGS 13:00 UTC). Persistent RU claims of advances near Verkhnokamyanske.

Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar)

  • Intensity Low: 3 RU attacks repelled near Vasyukivka, Chasiv Yar, Kurdiumivka (UGS 13:00).
  • Chasiv Yar: Fighting ongoing. RU forces previously advanced near Kanal microdistrict. RU claims persist regarding control, report UA counterattacks/reinforcement attempts.

Toretsk Axis

  • Intensity High: 14 RU attacks near Ozarianivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka; 3 ongoing (UGS 13:00).
  • RU Claims: Advance near Ozaryanivka persists. RU sources previously claimed >1km advance near Dzerzhynsk mine.

Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity)

  • Intensity Very High: 42 RU attempts since morning; 32 repelled, 10 ongoing (UGS 13:00). Attacks span numerous settlements (Kalynove, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Udachne, Uspenivka, etc.).
  • Shevchenko: DeepState analysis (Apr 8) indicates contested status after UA counter-attack partially regained control following RU occupation. Complex positional fighting ("vinaigrette") noted due to drone impact.
  • Key UA Strike: Claimed destruction of RU truck with TOS rockets near Pesky-Selydove ("Ivan Franko Group").
  • Uspenivka: UA 59th Bde claimed successful ambush of RU assault group nearby.

Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis

  • Intensity High: 7 RU attacks near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiya, Burlatske; 5 ongoing (UGS 13:00).
  • RU Claims (Voin DV): Advances near Rozlyv (0.5km) and Vesele (200m). RU targeting Komar.
  • Bohdanivka Area (South of Vuhledar): UA Tactical Group "Vugledar" claimed repelling major RU assault with significant losses (Apr 8).

Huliaipole Axis

  • Intensity Low: 1 RU attack towards Vilne Pole repelled (UGS 13:00). Persistent RU air strikes (KABs).

Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia)

  • Intensity Moderate: 2 RU assaults repelled near Stepove; 1 ongoing (UGS 13:00).
  • Air Raid Alert Active (as of 14:19 UTC). KAB launch towards Zaporizhzhia reported (~14:40 UTC).
  • RU Tactics: Use of fiber-optic FPV drones reported near Mali Shcherbaky. Claims of UA using disguised mines.
  • Civilian Impact: 1 WIA in Malinivka shelling (Apr 8).

Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank)

  • No RU Ground Assaults Reported (UGS 13:00 UTC). Ukrainian bridgehead near Krynky maintained.

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

  • Current Air Threats (As of 14:40 UTC):
    • Air Raid Alert: Active across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (since 14:19 UTC).
    • KAB Threat: Ongoing threat. Recent launch towards Zaporizhzhia (~14:40 UTC), previous towards Sumy (~13:30 UTC).
  • Recent Russian Strikes: Continuous KABs, Geran/Gerbera drones, OTRK, MLRS reported across multiple oblasts. Specific impacts detailed in Section I.
  • Recent Ukrainian Strikes:
    • Energy Targets (RU Claims): Reiterated claims vs Kursk NPP 750kV line & Novohorivka 35kV substation (Apr 7). Apr 5 Promsintez plant (Samara) strike confirmed.
    • Military Targets: Claims include: heavy losses inflicted by 3rd Assault Bde (Nadiia); 6 RU tanks/5 vehicles destroyed (59th Bde, Donetsk); RU truck with TOS rockets destroyed ("Ivan Franko Group"); Merlin-VR UAV shot down (Lyman); significant RU losses repelled near Bohdanivka (TG Vugledar); RU assault group ambushed near Uspenivka (59th Bde); Airstrike on RU-occupied building in Hoptarivka (Kursk Oblast) (Apr 8).
  • Drone Warfare & Robotics:
    • Russian: Emphasis on increasing UGV production/deployment. Claims use of fiber-optic FPV drone (Orikhiv). MoD claims 102 UA UAVs downed, 3 JDAMs, 7 HIMARS intercepted in 24h (Apr 8).
    • Ukrainian: Successful claimed strike on TOS rockets. Shootdown of Merlin-VR UAV. High claimed kills/destruction via drones. 154th OMBr using modified FPV drones to intercept RU recon UAVs. Drone operator training highlighted.

IV. Naval Situation

  • No significant changes. Black Sea/Azov Sea remain largely clear of active Russian warship patrols. Kalibr missile carriers (3 ships, up to 26 missiles) remain in the Mediterranean.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Personnel

  • Ukrainian:
    • Aid/Production: Belgium pledges €1 billion annual defense aid, confirmed F-16 delivery schedule (parts 2025, planes 2026), joint production agreements. Domestic drone production remains key focus.
    • Personnel: Recruitment appeals ongoing ("Khartia," Berdyansk Border Guard). Updated AWOL/Deserter return policy disseminated. Capture of Chinese nationals confirmed. Concerns raised about potential budget deficit impacting future soldier salaries (Ekonomichna Pravda - Note: MoF previously refuted similar claims).
  • Russian:
    • Robotics: High-level focus on increasing UGV deployment/integration.
    • Logistics: Continued reliance on volunteer support, fundraising appeals for EW/drones/vehicles.
    • Personnel: Mobilization policy changes (1-year draft validity). Reports of alleged mistreatment of wounded soldier. RU MoD establishing mobile medical commissions for WIA evaluation.

VI. International & Diplomatic Context

  • Ukraine-China: Capture of Chinese nationals adds significant diplomatic complexity. UA MFA summons diplomat. Zelenskyy links incident to potential US Ramstein stance.
  • Ukraine Allies: Belgian PM visit yields major aid package. Upcoming "Coalition of the Resolute" (Apr 10) and Ramstein (Apr 11) meetings confirmed, with US presence uncertain. Lithuania/Estonia reaffirm support.
  • Russia-US: Embassy normalization talks planned (Istanbul). Tensions over expiring START treaty persist.
  • Russia-Iran: Strategic partnership treaty ratified (no mandatory military aid clause).

(End Summary)

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