Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 21, 2025, 19:59 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (19:31 UTC - 19:59 UTC)

1. CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS, KYIV REPEATEDLY TARGETED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:33, 19:39, 19:46, 19:50, 19:51, 19:53 UTC): Reports REPEATED DRONE THREATS to KYIV, including from the NORTH and SOUTH. AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY is CONFIRMED. Reports DRONE ACTIVITY in ZHITOMYR OBLAST. Also warns of ENEMY DRONES near DNIPRO and POLTAVA OBLASTS.

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (19:32, 19:40, 19:41 UTC): Provides DETAILED DRONE TRACKING INFORMATION:

     • 3 drones heading WEST from KROPYVNYTSKYI.
     • 1 drone SOUTH of KREMENCHUK, heading NORTHWEST.
     • 2 drones from DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST heading NORTHWEST.
     • 2 drones WEST of PAVLOHRAD, heading NORTH.
     • 2 drones heading towards/THROUGH ZLATOPIL, KHARKIV OBLAST.
     • 8 drones from SUMY OBLAST heading WEST.
     • 1 drone heading towards/THROUGH CHERNIHIV.
     • 8 drones near NIZHYN, heading SOUTH.
     • 2 drones approaching KYIV.
     • 4 drones towards CHERKASY.
     • 2 drones near POLTAVA (one flying SOUTH, one NORTH).

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:52 UTC): Reports EXPLOSIONS IN KYIV.

   • Assessment: The DRONE ATTACK on UKRAINE is ONGOING, WIDESPREAD, and INTENSIFYING. KYIV is UNDER REPEATED ATTACK and is a PRIMARY TARGET. MULTIPLE WAVES and VECTORS OF APPROACH are being used. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS are ACTIVE, but the SCALE and COMPLEXITY of the ATTACK are CHALLENGING.

2. CONFIRMED AIRSTRIKE ON ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Multiple Ukrainian sources (ASTRA, Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration) confirm a RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, using GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS (KABs).
   • AT LEAST SIX INJURED, including a 4-YEAR-OLD BOY.
   • DAMAGE to RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS, CARS, and a DACHA COOPERATIVE.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN TARGETING of CIVILIAN AREAS with PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS. The CASUALTIES, particularly the INJURED CHILD, are DEEPLY CONCERNING.

3. REPORTED DAMAGE AT ENGELS AIRBASE (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • KiberBoroshno (Telegram channel) claims analysis of satellite imagery shows damage to a storage base for air-launched cruise missiles and their warheads at the Engels Airbase, with damage to nearby areas.

   • Assessment: REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The CLAIM needs CORROBORATION from OTHER SOURCES. IF CONFIRMED, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to RUSSIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITIES.

4. CONTINUED FIGHTING ON BELGOROD BORDER (HIGH PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Russian sources report CONTINUED FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER, with UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS TO BREACH the BORDER and RUSSIAN FORCES REPELLING the ATTACKS.
   • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN FOCUS on INFANTRY AND LIGHT VEHICLES, potentially to DRAW RUSSIAN FORCES AWAY from OTHER AREAS.
   • Video evidence provided by Russian sources shows COMBAT ACTIVITY.
   • Assessment: The BELGOROD BORDER REGION remains a ZONE OF INTENSE FIGHTING. CONFLICTING REPORTS and PROPAGANDA from BOTH SIDES make it DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE EXACT SITUATION. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is CRITICAL.

5. UKRAINIAN MILITARY REORGANIZATION (LOW PRIORITY, OFFICIAL SOURCE):

   • Ukrainian General Staff reports ONGOING EFFORTS to REORGANIZE MILITARY COMMAND and FORM A CORPS SYSTEM.
   • Assessment: This indicates UKRAINE is ADAPTING ITS MILITARY STRUCTURE to IMPROVE EFFICIENCY and COORDINATION. This is a LONG-TERM EFFORT.

6. UKRAINIAN F-16S REPORTEDLY OPERATIONAL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:49 UTC) claims Ukrainian F-16s are already operating, covering ground forces. Provides Video.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IF CONFIRMED. OPERATIONAL DEPLOYMENT of F-16s would SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE UKRAINIAN AIR CAPABILITIES. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.

7. OTHER REPORTS:

   • Multiple reports of drone attacks in Belgorod, with varied claims of casualties and damage.
   • Reports from various channels regarding military equipment, training exercises, and personnel movements.
   • Reports about US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with conflicting accounts of the topics discussed and potential outcomes.
   • Claims of atrocities by Russian forces.
   • Reports of sanctions enforcement.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • MASSIVE, ONGOING DRONE ATTACK on UKRAINE. MULTIPLE REGIONS are UNDER THREAT, including KYIV.
  • CONFIRMED AIRSTRIKE on ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION with CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
  • REPORTED DAMAGE TO ENGELS AIRBASE, potentially affecting RUSSIAN CRUISE MISSILE CAPABILITIES. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED FIGHTING on BELGOROD BORDER.
  • REPORTED UKRAINIAN F-16S OPERATIONAL. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES with GUIDED BOMBS on SUMY and DONETSK.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AND AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • PRIORITIZE DEFENSE OF KYIV and OTHER MAJOR CITIES.
   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS.
   • CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENTS and ADJUST DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS accordingly.
   • ISSUE AND MAINTAIN WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to SEEK SHELTER.

2. URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTED DAMAGE AT ENGELS AIRBASE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED DAMAGE to ENGELS AIRBASE, SPECIFICALLY the CLAIM OF DESTROYED CRUISE MISSILE STORAGE.
     • PRIORITIZE IMAGERY ANALYSIS to IDENTIFY ANY VISIBLE SIGNS OF DAMAGE.
     • USE HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, AND OTHER SOURCES to CORROBORATE the REPORT.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT of any CONFIRMED DAMAGE on RUSSIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITIES. This is CRITICALLY IMPORTANT for STRATEGIC PLANNING.

3. VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN F-16 DEPLOYMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY ATTEMPT TO CONFIRM the REPORTED OPERATIONAL DEPLOYMENT of UKRAINIAN F-16S.
     • USE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, including IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE, SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.
     • COORDINATE WITH ALLIED COUNTRIES to SHARE INFORMATION and VERIFY THE CLAIM.
   • IF CONFIRMED:
     • ASSESS THE TACTICAL IMPLICATIONS of F-16 OPERATIONS, including their ROLE IN AIR COVER and ENGAGEMENT OF RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT.
     • DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES to MITIGATE THE THREAT POSED BY F-16s.
     • BEGIN PLANNING for how F-16S can be INTEGRATED into EXISTING AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.

4. ADDRESS THE BELGOROD BORDER SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • CONTINUE MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
   • VERIFY REPORTS of FIGHTING, UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH, and CASUALTIES.
   • MAINTAIN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and REPEL ANY UKRAINIAN ADVANCES.
   • PROTECT CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in AFFECTED AREAS.

5. INVESTIGATE ALL REPORTS OF POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • GATHER EVIDENCE and DOCUMENT ALL INCIDENTS involving CIVILIAN CASUALTIES or DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.

6. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL due to the ONGOING, LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK, particularly the DIRECT THREAT TO KYIV. The REPORTED DAMAGE AT ENGELS AIRBASE and the POTENTIAL OPERATIONAL DEPLOYMENT OF UKRAINIAN F-16S are MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS that require URGENT ATTENTION and VERIFICATION. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INFORMATION, and EFFECTIVE COORDINATION are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• Ukrainian Air Force successfully intercepted and destroyed 114 enemy UAVs.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The image is part of a psychological operation to boost morale and deter enemy drone operations.: 0.5
• The claimed number of destroyed drones is an exaggeration or fabrication for propaganda purposes.: 0.01
• France is providing significant military aid to Ukraine.: 0.59
• France is playing a key diplomatic role in the conflict.: 0.5
• Ukraine and France are coordinating their strategies closely.: 0.42
• Zelenskyy is attempting to publicly reinforce the image of strong international support.: 0.47
• : 0.29
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
• Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
• Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
• Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
• Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
• Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
• Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
• A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
• Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
• An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
• Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
• Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
• The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
• The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
• The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
• The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
• Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
• Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
• 800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
• Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
• Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an

2025-03-21 20:00:44:

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 21, 2025, 19:59 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (19:31 UTC - 19:59 UTC)

1. CONTINUED, INTENSE DRONE ATTACK NEAR ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (19:01 UTC): Reports TEN drones near Zaporizhzhia, with ANTI-DRONE DEFENSES ACTIVE.

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:12 UTC): Reports a SERIES OF EXPLOSIONS in ZAPORIZHZHIA, confirming the city is UNDER DRONE ATTACK.

   • STERNENKO (19:13 UTC): Reports explosions in Zaporizhzhia.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:05): Reports that Zaporizhzhia is under threat of a drone attack.

   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a CONTINUED, INTENSE DRONE ATTACK near and *IN ZAPORIZHZHIA