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Daily Report: 2025-03-31 17:07:23

Okay, here is a comprehensive daily intelligence summary based on the provided reports, formatted using Markdown and presented from a professional Ukrainian perspective.

(CONFIDENTIAL // FOR UKRAINIAN HIGH COMMAND USE ONLY)

Military Intelligence Daily Summary: Ukrainian Perspective

Date: March 31, 2025 Time: 16:45 UTC Reporting Period: March 30, 17:00 UTC - March 31, 16:45 UTC

I. Executive Summary

The operational environment remains characterized by HIGH combat intensity across the front. Over the past 24 hours (as of 06:00 UTC Mar 31), 171 combat engagements were recorded, with the Pokrovsk Direction experiencing the heaviest fighting (73 attacks stopped). Significant Russian pressure persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border directions.

Russia continues its large-scale air campaign, launching 2 Iskander-M missiles and 131 Shahed-type UAVs (plus decoys) overnight (Mar 30/31). While Ukrainian Air Defenses intercepted 57 Shaheds, impacts caused civilian casualties (3 WIA in Kharkiv) and infrastructure damage. KAB usage remains extremely high (223 KABs used against Ukraine proper in 24h).

Russian forces claim territorial gains, notably the capture of Hoholivka (Kursk Oblast) and the liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk Oblast). They also claim advances near Novooleksandrivka (Pokrovsk), within Rozlyv (Novopavlivsk), and near Chasiv Yar. Fighting is intense along the Kursk/Belgorod border, with Russian forces attempting consolidation while Ukrainian forces conduct active defense and cross-border actions, including capturing POWs.

Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi noted stabilization efforts and a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March, attributed to improved training. However, the need for EW-resistant drones and enhanced brigade capabilities remains critical. Key Ukrainian successes include the destruction of a Russian pontoon bridge attempt near Dvorichna (Kupyansk) and a TOS-1A system 25km behind the lines.

The Russian Spring 2025 conscription campaign (targeting 160,000) commences April 1st, officially stated as unrelated to the SVO zone deployment. Reports of Russian morale issues persist. International support continues with significant aid packages announced by the Netherlands and Sweden, and an IMF tranche disbursed.

Key Priorities for Ukrainian Forces:

  1. Maintain Defensive Stability: Continue repelling Russian assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. Reinforce threatened sectors (Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Lyman, Novopavlivsk).
  2. Counter Air Threats: Sustain high readiness against KABs, missiles, and drones. Adapt AD/EW tactics to counter evolving Russian approaches (e.g., drone swarms).
  3. Degrade Russian Capabilities: Continue precision strikes on high-value targets (C2, logistics, EW, artillery). Exploit reported Russian morale/logistics weaknesses.
  4. Border Operations: Maintain pressure in Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts to disrupt Russian operations and tie down resources. Verify Russian claims of territorial control and mining activities.
  5. Resource Management: Optimize use of ammunition and drones. Address highlighted needs for EW-resistant systems and vehicle protection.

II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

  • Russian Strike Campaign (Past ~24-72h & Ongoing):
    • Missiles: 2 Iskander-M launched towards Sumy (reportedly NOT intercepted, Mar 31). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) (Mar 30 night). RU MoD claims Iskander strike on NGU positions in Ivot (Sumy) destroying vehicles/personnel. RU claims strikes hit military airfield, UAV production/sites, ammo depots.
    • UAVs: 131 Shahed UAVs + 45 decoy drones launched overnight Mar 30/31; 57 Shaheds destroyed. Impacts in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts, 3 civilians injured, significant fires/damage to civilian enterprise and residential buildings. Russia employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
    • Aviation/KABs: ALERT (Ongoing Mar 31 ~16:00 UTC): Threat of KAB launches persists for frontline areas. Earlier alerts active for Southern, Eastern, NE axes (Mar 31). Since start of day (UGS 16:00 UTC), Russia conducted 14 air strikes (24 KABs) in the Kursk operational zone. Previous 24h (UGS 06:00 UTC Mar 31): 116 aviation strikes (223 KABs) on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in Kursk zone. Persistent heavy KAB use continues. Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed in Kursk/Belgorod border area.
      • Kupyansk Attack (Mar 31 afternoon): Kharkiv OVA reports massive KAB attack on Kupyansk city (7 KABs). 1 private house destroyed, 1 damaged. 3 civilians wounded.
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attack (Mar 31 afternoon): 5 KAB strikes reported targeting one community. Search and rescue operation ongoing for 1 civilian woman potentially trapped under rubble; damage to residential/social facilities.
    • Artillery/MLRS: 145 artillery attacks (5 MLRS) reported in the Kursk operational zone since start of day (UGS 16:00 UTC). Previous 24h (UGS 06:00 UTC Mar 31): Over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS) across front. MLRS strike on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), 2 civilians wounded (Mar 31 morning). Heavy shelling on Nikopol District (2 WIA, infrastructure damage). Shelling of border settlements in Chernihiv/Sumy Oblasts continues.
  • Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
    • 57/131 Shaheds destroyed (Night Mar 30/31); 94/172 Shahed/imitators destroyed (Night Mar 28/29).
    • Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD/EW in Zaporizhzhia direction.
    • GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: Confirmed successful test interception of two Shaheds (Mar 29 night).
    • Ukrainian Claims (Mar 31): Destruction of 3 RU recon UAVs (Supercam, 2x Zala) via FPV interceptors; destruction of RU Zala over Sumy; destruction of 51 RU UAVs over Belgorod Oblast (past 13 days).
  • Ukrainian Air/Drone Strikes:
    • Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 14 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment) and 1 command post (UGS, past 24h).
    • Confirmed Strikes: UA Air Force strikes in Belgorod Oblast (Demidovka, Kondrativka area) reported (DeepState, Mar 31). UA forces destroyed RU TMM pontoon bridge attempt near Dvorichna (Kupyansk, Mar 31).
    • UA CLAIM (Air Strike - Kherson): Ukrainian Air Force (PS ZSU / DeepState / Butusov Plus, Mar 31) claim a MiG-29 crew successfully used GBU-62 guided bombs to destroy a Russian command post with equipment south of Nechaeve (near Oleshky, Kherson Oblast).
    • TOS-1A Destruction: Reported destruction of RU TOS-1A system 25km behind LOC (413th Sep Bn "Raid", Mar 31 video).
    • GBU/JDAM Use: Video released allegedly showing use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER (Mar 31).
    • Strikes on RU Territory: Continued reports/claims of UA drone/artillery strikes on Belgorod/Kursk/Bryansk Oblasts. Russian MoD claims ongoing UA attacks on energy infrastructure.
    • Tactical Drone Strikes: UA Signum unit (53rd OMBr) destroyed RU BMP (Luhansk, Mar 31). UA 63rd Brigade drones destroyed up to two RU squads in Serebryansky Forest (Lyman dir, Mar 31).
  • NATO/Allied ISR Activity: UK RC-135W SIGINT aircraft patrolled over Black Sea near Romania (Mar 31). USAF ISR aircraft (Challenger 650 ARTEMIS) and US Navy P-8A Poseidon observed near Kaliningrad (Mar 31).

III. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (UGS 16:00 UTC & Other Sources)

  • Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border:
    • Ukrainian forces repelled 9 RU attacks in Kursk Oblast since morning; 5 clashes ongoing. Intense fighting reported, especially near Oleshnia, Huyevo.
    • RU forces conducted 14 air strikes (24 KABs) and 145 artillery attacks (5 MLRS) in the Kursk operational zone since morning.
    • RU Claims: Capture of Hoholivka confirmed. Control of half of Huyevo, fighting ongoing. "Liberation" of Sudzha claimed (unverified). UA holds Oleshnia/Gornal (RU claim). UA reinforcing with multiple brigades. UA mining territory near Sudzha (NATO munitions alleged). Ongoing clearing operations. Repelled UA counter-attack near Sudzha MAPP.
    • UA Actions: SSO captured POWs, destroyed RU group. Air Force strikes conducted in Belgorod Oblast.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: HIGHEST INTENSITY. 36 RU attempts since morning (28 repelled, 8 ongoing). Attacks near multiple settlements including Oleksandropil, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyne. RU confirmed capture Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk). RU claims approaching Novooleksandrivka and advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk border.
  • Lyman Direction: High Intensity. 14 RU attacks since morning (8 repelled, 6 ongoing) near Nadiia, Dibrova, Kolodyazi, Nove, Serebryanka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhailivka. UA confirmed RU advance near Novoie.
  • Toretsk Direction: High Intensity. 10 RU attacks since morning (6 repelled, 4 ongoing) near Toretsk. UA confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU claims reaching Valentynivka outskirts, fighting for Tarasivka.
  • Huliaipole Direction: High Intensity. 8 RU attacks since morning (4 repelled, 4 ongoing) near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Malynivka. RU claimed advances near Volnoye Pole.
  • Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): High Intensity. 7 RU attacks since morning (5 repelled, 2 ongoing) near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove. RU claims significant offensive gains, including capturing most of Lobkove.
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction: Significant Activity. 6 RU attacks since morning (2 repelled, 4 ongoing) near Kostyantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya, Rozlyv. UA confirmed RU advance in Rozlyv. RU claims controlling >50% of Rozlyv, establishing fire control over Bogatyr-Konstantinopol logistics node, and inflicting heavy losses.
  • Kupyansk Direction: 4 RU assaults since morning (3 repelled, 1 ongoing) towards Pishchane and near Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka. Massive RU KAB attack on Kupyansk city (7 KABs, 3 civilians WIA). UA destroyed RU pontoon bridge attempt near Dvorichna.
  • Siversk Direction: 2 RU attacks ongoing near Bilohorivka and Ivano-Darivka.
  • Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar): 4 RU attempts since morning (2 repelled, 2 ongoing) near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne. RU claims repelling UA mechanized counter-attack. Intense fighting continues.
  • Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 RU attack repelled near Sadove. Positional fighting. UA conducted air strike near Nechaeve.

IV. Capabilities, Technology & Logistics

  • Russian: Continued heavy reliance on KABs, Shaheds, FPV drones. Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed. UGVs ("Krot") claimed used near Yampil. Fiber-optic guided FPVs ("Gortenzia", VT-40) claimed used. Reports of captured/repaired UA drones being employed. Development of personal anti-drone cages and use of nets against FPVs noted. Adaptation of artillery tactics (fire-and-move). Establishment of specialized drone modification labs. Reports of friendly fire/misidentification issues with FPV drones ("Sudoplatov" type mentioned). Volunteer groups providing add-on armor. Structured contract soldier training pipeline outlined by Dep Def Min Yevkurov (1 week-1 month). Conscription drive (160k target) starts Apr 1.
  • Ukrainian: Demonstrated use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER alleged/shown. Effective FPV drone use continues (interceptors, high-value targets like TOS-1A). Counter-drone capabilities being adapted locally (e.g., modifying anti-drone rifles). Significant training improvements reported (longer basic training, adaptation periods) leading to claimed reduction in March losses (Syrskyi). High operational tempo of artillery and drones reported (Syrskyi). Increased need for fiber-optic drones resistant to RU EW highlighted (Syrskyi). Increasing use of anti-drone logistical tunnels reported.

V. Other Developments

  • War Crimes Allegations: SBU issued notices of suspicion to two Russian generals for ordering the Aug 19, 2023 Iskander-M strike on the Chernihiv Drama Theater. Alleged vandalism/arson at Russian soldiers' graves in Crimea reported by RU sources.
  • Sanctions Evasion Scheme Alleged: InformNapalm/256 Cyber Assault Division allege Indian company facilitated sanctioned French electro-optics transfer to Russia.
  • POW/MIA Support (Ukraine): Coordination Headquarters restructuring regional centers, held meeting for families of 4th NSU Brigade personnel.
  • Internal Russian Issues: Anecdotal report of coercive conscription practices in Moscow. RU sources raise concerns about potential formation of closed migrant enclaves promoting radicalism. Challenges reported for independent Russian media outlets. RU General Prosecutor's Office requests suspension of Taliban ban.
  • Economic: Ukrainian bond prices fall. IMF disbursed ~$400M tranche to Ukraine.

(End Summary)

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