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Daily Report: 2025-04-03 17:07:14

(CONFIDENTIAL // FOR UKRAINIAN HIGH COMMAND USE ONLY)

Military Intelligence Daily Summary: Ukrainian Perspective

Date: April 3, 2025 Time: 17:05 UTC Reporting Period: April 2, 16:00 UTC - April 3, 17:00 UTC (incorporating key updates and context from the preceding 24-48 hours)

I. Executive Summary

  • Operational Intensity: Combat intensity remains HIGH across the front, with 62 engagements reported since the start of the day (UGS 16:00 UTC), following 216 over the previous 24 hours.
  • Primary Russian Offensive Axes: Russian forces continue to concentrate their main ground assault efforts on the Pokrovsk (highest intensity) and Toretsk directions in Donetsk Oblast.
  • Key Territorial Changes:
    • Russian Gains Confirmed: RU forces captured Oleksandropil (Toretsk axis), Vesele (Novopavlivsk axis), and Lobkove (Orikhiv axis) within the reporting period. Geolocated RU advances also confirmed near Vesele along the Mokri Yaly river.
    • Russian Gains Claimed: Ongoing advances claimed W of Andriivka (S of Kurakhove), near Fedorivka (Novopavlivsk), towards Kamyanske (Orikhiv), W of Zherebets River (Lyman), within Chasiv Yar urban area, and in Kursk/Sumy border areas (Huyevo).
    • Ukrainian Advances/Successes: UA forces confirmed advance near Pokrovsk (ISW). Major RU mechanized assaults repelled near Andriivka (Kramatorsk axis), inflicting heavy losses (13+ AFVs destroyed/damaged, 50+ casualties claimed). Successful defense and counter-actions continue in the Kursk border area.
  • Air & Missile Threats: Persistent threat from Russian KABs targeting frontline oblasts (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy). Ongoing reconnaissance UAV activity observed. Overnight (Apr 2-3), Russia launched 39 Shahed-type UAVs (28 destroyed by UA AD) impacting Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. A devastating ballistic missile strike hit Kryvyi Rih (Apr 2), causing 4 KIA, 17 WIA. NATO assesses Russia is accumulating missiles for potential large-scale strikes.
  • Ukrainian Defensive Actions: Ukrainian forces maintain robust defensive lines, actively repelling numerous assaults daily. Drone operations remain highly effective for reconnaissance, strike (against personnel, armor, artillery), and interdiction. Counter-intelligence operations continue (e.g., collaborator detained in Sumy).
  • Russian Capabilities & Morale: NATO assesses Russia is increasing force generation and equipment replacement rates faster than previously estimated. However, reports of severe morale issues, high losses, poor command, logistical problems, and reliance on volunteer support persist within RU units (e.g., 27th MRB, 124th Tank Bn, 90th Tank Div). Spring conscription drive (160k target) continues.
  • International Context: Discussions on potential European troop deployment using NATO structures reported. Significant allied aid continues (Denmark €900M package). High-level US-Russia contact confirmed (Witkoff-Dmitriev), possibly linked to ceasefire discussions. New US tariffs announced, potential global economic impact noted.
  • Logistics: High demand for FPV drones remains a critical factor for UA forces. RU forces demonstrate reliance on volunteer logistics and improvised equipment modifications (anti-drone cages, vehicle conversions).

II. Ground Combat Operations & Territorial Changes (Highlights)

  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 22 RU attacks initiated since start of Apr 3; 10 ongoing (UGS 16:00). Heavy fighting persists. UA forces claimed halting RU armored assault, destroying 2 RU tanks with FPVs (Apr 3). Flying Skull unit claimed 8 RU personnel eliminated via FPV drone during assaults (Apr 3). Khartia Brigade claimed 41 RU KIA via drones (Apr 3). Russian claims of advances W of Andriivka, near Preobrazhenka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske persist. Captured RU soldier (90th Tank Div) alleged extremely high battalion turnover (6x in a year) and poor conditions.
  • Toretsk Axis (Significant RU Focus): 13 RU attacks since start of Apr 3; 4 ongoing (UGS 16:00). Oleksandropil captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU forces occupied Panteleimonivka (Confirmed Mar 31/Apr 3). RU claims advances W of Oleksandropil, towards Valentynivka, and expanded control in Toretsk urban area.
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: 4 RU attacks initiated near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil; fighting ongoing (UGS 16:00). Vesele captured by RU forces (RU MoD Confirmed Apr 3). Razliv captured by RU forces (RU claim confirmed Apr 3). Geolocated RU advance >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river (Apr 3). RU claims entry into S. outskirts Fedorivka, advancing towards Bohatyr. RU claims advance of 700m North of Burlatske. Continued fierce fighting on eastern edge of Vilne Pole. RU MoD claims Tor SAM systems actively defending units here.
  • Lyman Axis: 5 RU attacks near Hrekivka, Nove, towards Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna; 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 16:00). UA Sniper activity reported in Kreminna forest area (Apr 3). RU claims expanded bridgehead W of Zherebets River by 2.5 km near Novoliubivka (Geolocated Apr 3). RU claim capture of 2 UA POWs (3rd Aslt Bde) near Nadiia.
  • Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast: 4 RU attacks repelled by UA forces in Kursk Oblast (UGS 16:00). Russia conducted 5 airstrikes (8 KABs). Intense fighting reported ongoing. RU claims control of central Huyevo (Kursk), advancing in Sumy border area. RU MoD claims high UA losses (>180 personnel). Evidence of abandoned UA BTR-60PB found. Zelenskyy acknowledged UA operations in Kursk Oblast (Apr 3).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 6 RU attacks near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske; fighting ongoing (UGS 16:00). Lobkove captured by RU forces (RU MoD Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove towards Kamyanske.
  • Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis: 1 RU assault repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS 16:00). Major RU mechanized assaults (17+ AFVs) repelled near Andriivka (morning Apr 3), UA forces (46th OAMBr, 33rd OMBr, 148th Art Bde) claim destroying/damaging at least 13 RU AFVs (incl. 3 tanks, 11 BMPs) and inflicting approx. 58 RU KIA/WIA. RU sources report gradual advances in urban Chasiv Yar.
  • Kharkiv Axis/Border: 1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanka (UGS 16:00). RU units requesting EW/drone detectors. RU forces claimed destruction of UA PZM-2 engineering vehicle and T-72 near Lyptsi.
  • Other Axes (UGS 16:00 Apr 3): Kupyansk (2 RU attacks repelled); Siversk (5 RU assaults repelled); Huliaipole (RU NAR airstrike on Novopil); Prydniprovsky (1 RU attempt repelled).

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

  • Active Threats (as of 17:05 UTC):
    • Ballistic Missile Threat: Alert ACTIVE for Sumy Oblast (UA AF, 17:00 UTC). Previous alert resolved for E/S oblasts (~15:16 - 16:27 UTC).
    • Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: Persists for frontline oblasts. Recent launches towards Sumy Oblast (17:01 UTC), Kharkiv/Donetsk border, Donetsk city area (16:54 UTC).
    • Reconnaissance/Attack UAVs: RU UAVs active over N. Kharkiv Oblast (16:13 UTC). Threat cleared for Chernihiv (16:37 UTC).
  • Recent Ukrainian Air Defense / Strike Activity:
    • Air Defense: Downed 10 RU UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (Apr 2-3). Intercepted 2x RU Kh-59/69 missiles over Zaporizhzhia (Apr 2). Active against RU recon/attack UAVs.
    • Drone Strikes: Active FPV operations claimed by multiple units (Flying Skull: 8 RU KIA Pokrovsk; Hard Skills Group: Snipers Lyman; Shadow unit: Night strikes; Khartia Bde: 41 RU KIA Kharkiv; Border Guards "Sapsan"). Significant RU equipment losses claimed in Andriivka engagements.
    • Precision Strikes: Claimed use of GBU-63 JDAM-ER against RU command post (Kherson Oblast, Apr 1).
    • Air Force/Rocket Forces/Artillery (UGS, Past 24h): Hit 8 RU concentration areas, 1 UAV control point, 1 artillery system.
  • Recent Russian Air/Missile/Drone Activity:
    • Drone Strike on Kharkiv City (Apr 3, ~15:44 UTC): RU UAV struck Saltivskyi district. 1 civilian WIA reported.
    • Strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 3): Attacks on Nikopol district (damage, no casualties) and Synelnykove district (damage, 3 WIA).
    • Overnight UAV Attacks (Apr 2-3): Mass attacks targeted Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Impacts caused damage, casualties. RU Claims: Targeted industrial zones (KhAZ, FED, Kommunar plants) and military facilities. Needs verification.
    • Missile Strike (Apr 2, Kryvyi Rih): Resulted in 4 KIA, 17 WIA. Day of mourning declared for Apr 4.
    • KAB Strikes: Ongoing daily impacts on frontline oblasts. UGS reported 85 aviation strikes (123 KABs) in 24 hours preceding 05:00 UTC Apr 3.
    • Claimed Strikes (RU MoD/Sources, Apr 3): Destruction of UA ground-based EW station (Sumy Oblast). Hits on UA missile/space industry, UAV workshops, ammo depots. Specific claims include Geran-2 strikes in Kharkiv, destruction of UA PZM-2 near Lyptsi, strikes aiding infantry, neutralization of 5 foreign fighters. RU MoD claimed downing 1 JDAM, 3 HIMARS projectiles, 138 UA UAVs (Apr 3). Video released of Mi-28 helicopter operations (Belgorod border), Tor SAM systems (South Donetsk).

IV. Force Generation, Logistics & Technology

  • Ukrainian: Received 5,000 Starlink terminals (Poland). Demonstrated precision strike (JDAM-ER), FPV capabilities. High FPV drone demand persists. Modern Western MRAPs (MaxxPro) shown in use by DShV units.
  • Russian: NATO assesses faster-than-expected force generation/equipment replacement. Spring conscription drive (160k target) ongoing. Reported morale issues/complaints from multiple units (27th MRB, 124th Tank Bn, 90th Tank Div, POW testimony). Continued reliance on volunteer logistics/equipment modification (vehicles, armor, EW, drones, comms). Development/deployment of EW systems ("Ivan"-2 jammer) and counter-drone tactics ("interceptor drones," nets). Use of fiber-optic FPVs claimed to overcome EW. Law grants combat veteran status for Kursk fighting.

V. Information Operations & Narratives

  • Russia: Continues narratives alleging UA atrocities (Kursk, Kurakhove), blaming Kyiv for hindering dialogue, promoting claimed successes (Vesele, Lobkove, Oleksandropil captures), amplifying potential Trump benefits. Disseminates POW videos/confessions (Bucha crime claim). Frames Western support as escalatory. Promotes domestic resilience/patriotic events. Downplays Tu-22M3 crash as technical fault.
  • Ukraine: Highlights RU civilian targeting (Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv), defensive successes (Andriivka assault repelled), RU morale/logistics issues (POW testimonies, desertion reports). Emphasizes drone effectiveness. Publicizes international support. Counters RU disinformation (energy truce, chemical weapons claims). Acknowledges operations within Russia (Kursk Oblast).

(End Summary)

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