(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Situation in Ukraine

Date: April 16, 2025 Reporting Period: April 15, 00:00 UTC – April 16, 08:00 UTC (Analysis based on consolidated reports up to Apr 16, 08:30 UTC)

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I. Executive Summary

• High-Intensity Combat: Hostilities remained intense across the front on April 15, with 111 combat clashes reported (GSh ZSU). The Pokrovsk (32 attacks) and Toretsk (19 attacks) axes witnessed the highest Russian offensive activity. Significant pressure also persisted on the Kursk Border (17 attacks), Lyman (14), and Novopavlivsk (12) axes.
• Key Frontline Developments:
  • Toretsk Axis: Russia confirmed capture of Kalynove and claims significant tactical advances, including occupying Valentynivka and initiating assaults on Sukha Balka. Ukrainian forces report repelling numerous attacks.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the primary Russian focus. Heavy fighting ongoing, with Ukrainian forces repelling 32 attacks. UA drone superiority noted by RU sources, impacting RU operations.
  • Kursk Border: Intense clashes continue. Ukraine executed successful retaliatory strikes against the RU 448th Missile Brigade PPD and alleged ammo storage in Rylsk. Russia maintains offensive pressure near Hornal/Oleshnia.
  • Kherson City: Subjected to intense Russian KAB and artillery strikes (Apr 16 morning), resulting in 1 civilian KIA, 9 WIA, and destruction of the Kherson Ice Arena.
• Significant Air & Drone Warfare:
  • Russian Chemical Weapons Use (Confirmed): Ukrainian CPD/DSNS confirm Russia equipping Shahed UAVs with CS gas capsules ("tear gas"), a violation of the CWC when used as a method of warfare.
  • Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Successful UAV strike confirmed against the barracks of the RU 112th Missile Brigade in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast (Russia), identified as involved in the Sumy strike. Fire reported at APZ-20 Bearing Plant in Kursk city, potential UA strike.
  • Large-Scale Russian Drone Attack (Night Apr 15-16): 97 Shahed/decoy UAVs launched. UA AD downed 57 attack UAVs. Impacts caused civilian injuries (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk) and infrastructure damage.
• Strategic & Political Landscape:
  • Ukrainian Parliament extended mobilization and martial law until August 6, 2025.
  • US-Ukraine negotiations on aid repayment ($100B target) and mineral resource access reported as "very close".
  • US diplomatic efforts continue, with envoy Witkoff and SecState Rubio visiting Paris for talks on Trump's plan to "end the war". White House maintains ceasefire prerequisite for deals/sanctions relief.
  • Critical North Korean ammunition supply (4.2-5.8M rounds) continues to underpin Russian artillery capacity.
• Capabilities & Concerns: Russia introduces FiberWire-guided drones (Kostyantynivka claim) and new "Chekan" MRAP. Persistent RU accidental bomb drops (8 FABs on Belgorod Apr 11-14). Ukraine codifies V-1 bomber drone complex. Corruption probe into Kursk border fortifications raises questions about Russian defense integrity.

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II. Frontline Operations

A. Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (Intensity: High)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 17 RU attacks repelled Apr 15. Fighting ongoing near Hornal, Oleshnia, Lokni (Sumy Obl.). RU claims fire control over UA withdrawal routes near Hornal. RU MoD claims engaging 8 UA brigades, inflicting up to 160 KIA (Kursk dir.). Intense RU air (72 KABs) & artillery fire reported Apr 15.
• Ukrainian Strikes: Confirmed strike on RU 448th Missile Bde PPD (Kursk). Drone drops caused secondary detonations at alleged ammo storage in Rylsk (Kursk). FPV drone strikes ("REQUIEM GROUP") target RU logistics in Belgorod Oblast.
• Russian Border Forces: BARS detachments formed in Bryansk/Belgorod/Kursk for border protection. Bryansk detachment >2000 personnel, actively recruiting. Volunteer appeals highlight drone/thermal needs.

B. Kharkiv Axis (Intensity: Moderate)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 1 RU attack repelled near Vovchansk Apr 15. OTU "Kharkiv" reports 3 RU air strikes (9 KABs), 152 kamikaze drones, 705 shelling attacks in past 24h (as of Apr 16 09:00), claiming 66 RU KIA/WIA.
• Russian Claims: RU MoD claims destruction of UA strongpoint using "Molniya" UAV and surface drone carrying TM-62 mine.
• Ukrainian Activity: 3rd Assault Brigade active with FPV strikes (Kharkiv/Luhansk border). 57th Brigade using "Baba Yaga" drones for resupply.

C. Kupyansk Axis (Intensity: Moderate)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 3 RU attacks repelled near Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove (Apr 15). RU MoD claims improved positions.
• Russian Claims: Cleared UA strongpoint near Manuylivka. Lancet drone destroyed UA Krab SPG near Stetskivka. Ongoing need for advanced drones (Mavic 3T, Matrice 30T) noted for RU 352nd MSR.

D. Lyman Axis (Intensity: High)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 14 RU attacks repelled Apr 15 near Novomykhailivka, Tverdokhlibove, Nadiia, towards Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Hryhorivka. RU claims heavy fighting for Nove, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka. RU 144th MSD drone strikes reported.
• Confirmed Advances: RU forces advanced near Nadiivka (DeepState, Apr 15) and previously near Yampolivka (DeepState, Apr 13).

E. Siversk Axis (Intensity: Moderate)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 5 RU attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske, Bilohorivka (Apr 15). RU claims capture of ~3 sq km near Bilohorivka (LNR) and advances towards Hryhorivka.

F. Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar) (Intensity: Moderate)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 3 RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Stupochky (Apr 15). UA forces (5th Aslt/93rd Mech/Feniks DPSU) documented repelling large RU mechanized assault (Apr 12), inflicting heavy armor losses.
• Russian Claims/Activity: Claimed first use of FiberWire guided kamikaze drones targeting UA pickup in Kostyantynivka (>10km range). RU FPV drones targeting UA "Baba Yaga" heavy drones (air-to-air claims).

G. Toretsk Axis (Intensity: High)

• Russian Claims: RU MoD confirms capture of Kalynove. RU sources claim capture of Valentynivka and initiated assault on Sukha Balka. Claims significant advances W of Aleksandropol/Panteleimonivka, control of H-20 section, entry into Sukha Balka. Fighting reported on western outskirts of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Claimed capture of UA POWs (109th TDF Bde).
• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 19 RU attacks repelled near Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Kurdyumivka (Apr 15).

H. Pokrovsk Axis (Intensity: Highest)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 32 RU attacks repelled Apr 15 across numerous settlements. Very high UA drone activity noted by RU sources ("catastrophically large number"). UA 425th OShP "SKALA" active near Pishchane (mine facility CQC).
• Russian Claims: Claims capture of Yelyzavetivka. Advances claimed near Kotlyne, Uspenivka, Lysovka, along highway towards Kostyantynivka. Use of "Zemledeliye" confirmed. RU 33rd MSR active with FPVs near Tarasivka.
• Ukrainian Successes: UA SSO raid killed 8 RU, captured 2 POWs.

I. Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (Intensity: High)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 12 RU attacks repelled Apr 15 near Kostyantynopil, Pryvilne, Rozlyv, Vilne Pole towards Odradne.
• Russian Claims: Substantial advances claimed by RU "Vostok" Group near Bohatyr (1km x 2.5km), SE of Otradne (0.5km x 2km), N of Bohate (1km x 1.5km), threatening encirclement. Claimed repelling 4 UA counter-attacks. Claimed destruction of UA reinforcements/equipment (IMR-2M, BREM, M113). Fighting ongoing near Dniproenerhiya (control contested). Heavy fighting near Vesele, Shevchenko.
• Ukrainian Activity: UA 47th Mech Bde ("Striks" BBS) and Presidential Bde (3rd Mech Bn) drone strikes reported.
• Alleged War Crime: UA investigating alleged execution of unarmed UA POW near Rozdolne (Apr 11).

J. Orikhiv Axis / Zaporizhzhia Front (Intensity: Moderate)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanske (Apr 15). Intense fighting near Kamyanske. High RU drone saturation impacting operations. RU claim capture of Mali Shcherbaky persists. RU FPV injured civilian in Orikhiv (Apr 16). RU FAB strikes near Lobkove.
• Ukrainian Activity: Reported building "kill zones" / mined traps using 3D printed components.

K. Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson) (Intensity: Low)

• Combat: GSh ZSU reported 1 unsuccessful RU attack repelled Apr 15. UA maintains bridgehead.
• Russian Strikes: Intense KAB/Artillery strikes on Kherson city center (Apr 16 morning, 1 KIA, 9 WIA). RU claim targeting personnel concentration (incl. Ice Palace). Video shows updated FAB-500 UMPK striking urban areas.
• Ukrainian Strikes: Navy heavy bomber drones destroyed RU boat.
• Alleged UA Strike (RU Claim): Strike allegedly hit substation (Chaplynskyi), followed by drone attack injuring 6 RU MCHS first responders.

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IV. Air, Missile & Drone Warfare Summary

• Major Events:
  • Confirmed Russian use of CS gas capsules on Shahed drones.
  • Successful Ukrainian strike on RU 112th Missile Brigade base (Iskander-M unit) in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast (Russia), causing damage to barracks (confirmed by FIRMS data, photos).
  • Large Russian Shahed attack overnight (Apr 15-16) caused civilian casualties (3 WIA Odesa, 2 WIA Kamenskoye) and damage in multiple oblasts. UA downed 57/97 attack UAVs (+34 decoys).
  • Intense Russian KAB strikes continue, devastating Kherson city center (1 KIA, 9 WIA).
• Technological Developments: Reports of RU FiberWire-guided drones (Kostyantynivka) and testing of drone-mounted shotguns. UA development of "Bars" rocket-drone reported.
• EW/Counter-Drone: Critical battlefield element. Ukraine confirms destruction of two RU Borisoglebsk-2 EW stations. High UA drone activity noted on Pokrovsk axis. RU claims downing large numbers of UA UAVs, JDAMs, HIMARS rockets. UA downed 10 Shaheds overnight (Mykolaiv/Dnipropetrovsk).

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V. Capabilities & Logistics

• Ukraine:
  • Force Structure: NGU reforms create two new Corps (1st "Azov", 2nd).
  • Capabilities: Growing domestic drone production (V-1 bomber codified, "Bars" reported), 3D printing for mine components. Need for advanced Western systems (Patriots, IFVs) remains.
  • Training: 46th Airmobile Bde intensive training. Updated basic training program.
• Russia:
  • Ammunition: Critical reliance on North Korean supplies (4.2-5.8M rounds).
  • Capabilities: New "Chekan" MRAP publicized. UGVs tested (casualty evac, "Krot" mine-layer). FAB-3000 UMPK use claimed.
  • Logistics/Issues: 8 accidental FAB drops on Belgorod Oblast (Apr 11-14). Kursk corruption probe into border fortification funds. Helicopter transport issues in Arctic. Persistent crowdfunding appeals for drones/equipment. Railway disruptions claimed by GUR (March).

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VI. Humanitarian & Ethical Concerns

• Chemical Weapons: Confirmed RU use of CS gas capsules on Shaheds. Potential booby-trapping of wreckage alleged.
• Civilian Impact: High casualties from RU strikes (Kherson, Odesa, Kamenskoye, Orikhiv, Kharkiv Oblast). Significant damage to civilian infrastructure (Kherson Ice Arena, Odesa buildings/church, Kamenskoye enterprise, Poltava power lines). Death toll from Apr 4 Kryvyi Rih strike reaches 21.
• War Crimes Allegations: UA investigating alleged execution of unarmed POW near Rozdolne (Apr 11). RU alleges UA shelling civilians at funeral (Kursk) and mining evacuation routes (Kursk).
• POW/MIA: Ukrainian coordination efforts intensify, regional centers planned. Total 4306 returned. RU info op claims UA torture of POWs.

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VII. Outlook

• Expect continued heavy fighting on the Eastern Front, particularly Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, with Russia likely attempting to exploit claimed gains near Kalynove. The situation near Bohatyr (South Donetsk) requires close monitoring due to significant RU advance claims.
• The confirmation of CS gas use on Shaheds represents a concerning escalation, requiring adaptation of handling protocols for downed drones.
• Ukrainian deep strikes (Shuya, Rylsk, Kursk PPD) demonstrate growing capability and willingness to target strategic military assets within Russia in retaliation for attacks like Sumy. Expect further such actions.
• The Kursk border zone remains volatile, with ongoing RU offensive actions and UA counter-strikes.
• Heavy Russian KAB and drone usage will continue to pose a major threat, straining Ukrainian air defenses and impacting civilian areas. The alleged end of the "energy strike moratorium" warrants observation.

(End Summary)