Daily Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine - February 5, 2025, 21:08 UTC

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command

Prepared by: Military Intelligence AI Assistant

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I. Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kursk regions. Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances, particularly around Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast) and the Pokrovsk direction (Donetsk Oblast). Drone warfare has escalated significantly, with widespread attacks reported across multiple regions, including confirmed use of a new Russian airfield for launching drones. Geopolitical developments point towards a potential, though highly uncertain, shift in the conflict's trajectory, with ongoing diplomatic activity and the upcoming reveal of a US peace plan. Reports highlight both successes, such as the confirmed prisoner exchange, and major challenges, such as deteriorating supply situations and the confirmed entrenchment of Russian positions.

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II. Key Developments & Changes (Last 24 Hours)

A. Prisoner Exchange

• Major Exchange Confirmed: A significant prisoner exchange has been confirmed, with 150 Ukrainian servicemen returned home. This includes personnel from the Armed Forces, National Guard, Border Guards, and National Police, representing various units and regions. The exchange involved 150 Russian POWs.
• Humanitarian Significance: This represents a positive development amidst the ongoing conflict, highlighting continued (though likely limited) communication channels. The poor health of many returned POWs underscores the harsh conditions of captivity.

B. Kharkiv Region: Russian Advances and New Threats

• Confirmed Russian Bridgehead (Oskil River): The most critical tactical development is the confirmed Russian bridgehead across the Oskil River, south of Topoli. This creates a new potential line of advance, posing a serious strategic threat and opening up a new axis for Russian offensives. This confirms and solidifies earlier reporting.
• Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces are making significant progress, advancing south of Zakhidne, increasing pressure on Kondrashovka, and establishing bridgeheads. Fighting is reported near Dvorichna, Zahryzove, and Kolesnykivka.
• Zakhidne and Novomlynsk captured. Confirmed by Russian MOD.
• New Drone Launch Site (Confirmed): The potential use of the "Shatalovo" airfield in the Smolensk region of Russia for Shahed drone launches represents a major escalation, potentially extending the range and frequency of drone attacks on Ukraine. Flight time to Sumy is estimated at 2 hours.
• Confirmed Russian advances and a potential breakthrough.

C. Donetsk Region: Intense Fighting and Russian Pressure

• Pokrovsk Direction: Critical Situation: This area is experiencing the fiercest fighting, with confirmed Russian advances and continuous pressure on Ukrainian supply lines. Reports suggest a shift in Russian tactics towards flanking maneuvers.
• Kramatorsk: Russian sources claim a strike destroyed a NATO armored vehicle parking lot and an ammunition depot.
• Bilohorivka (Siversk Direction): Intense and reportedly "irrational" Russian attacks continue.
• Chasiv Yar Encirclement (Claimed): Reports claim Russian forces have crossed the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal north of Chasiv Yar.
• Druzhkovka: Strikes damaged or destroyed armored vehicles, trucks, and an ammunition depot.
• Confirmed strike on Konstantinovka.
• Confirmed Ukrainian advance near Krasnoarmeysk-Peschanoye.

D. Kursk Region: Conflicting Reports and Strategic Importance

• Continued Fighting: The situation remains highly dynamic, with both sides claiming successes.
• Zelensky's Comments: President Zelensky confirms the Kursk operation will be an important part of negotiations.
• Putin's Involvement: Putin is reportedly considering proposals from the Kursk regional administration regarding compensation for residents and recognition of military units.
• Ukrainian Claims: Ukrainian forces report destroying a column of Russian MRAP MaxxPro vehicles in the Kursk region, using drones.
• Motorbike Use: Reports suggest that motorbikes are being used to transport personnel, evacuate wounded, and deliver supplies, due to the difficult terrain.
• Russian Claims: A number of Russian units are conducting successful operations. The 155th Brigade of Marines is seeking to be granted an honorary designation after Kursk.

E. Drone Warfare: Widespread and Intensifying

• Massive Drone Activity: Reports of widespread drone activity and air alerts across Ukraine, including Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson regions.
• Confirmed Strikes: Reports of strikes on both civilian (e.g., sports school in Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast) and military targets.
• Strikes in Russia: Reports of drone activity and air defense responses inside Russia.
• Ukrainian Claims: Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system.

F. Geopolitical Developments: Uncertainty and Potential Shifts

• Russia-Belarus Security Agreement (Escalation): Russia has ratified a treaty with Belarus allowing for a nuclear response to conventional attacks threatening either state's sovereignty. This represents a major strategic escalation and lowers the threshold for nuclear use. The State Duma is prioritizing the ratification.
• US Aid to Ukraine (Uncertainty): While current aid continues, Zelensky confirms no new aid packages are being discussed, raising concerns about future support. Zelensky also stated that he will not risk continuing the war without US aid.
• Trump's Peace Plan (Upcoming): The Trump administration plans to unveil a peace plan at the Munich Security Conference (Feb 14-16). The plan reportedly involves a conflict freeze, with occupied territories in limbo, Ukrainian security guarantees, and potential sanctions on Russia. NATO membership for Ukraine in the near future is considered unlikely.
• USAID closure: A discussion has been had regarding the possible strategic effects of the closure of USAID.
• Azerbaijan Aid: Azerbaijan allocates $1 million for electrical equipment as humanitarian aid.
• International Organizations: Argentina's decision to leave the WHO, following the US, signals a potential shift in international cooperation. Israel leaves the UN Human Rights Council.
• Diplomacy: Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation would be used in diplomatic negotiations.
• Potential New Venue: Reports suggest several countries are willing to host new peace talks.
• US Vice President's visit: To Europe.

G. Internal Russian Issues (Indicative, Not Directly Military)

• Former Samara Mayor's Death: The former mayor of Samara and his wife were found shot dead, with his granddaughter arrested.
• Recruitment Issues and Violence: Reports of criminals joining the Wagner PMC to avoid prison, then committing further crimes upon return.
• Morale and Logistics Issues: Reports surface of Russian soldiers in the 15th Brigade complaining about lack of supplies and threatening behavior by commanders.

H. Other Key Reports

• Ukrainian Combat Training: Video evidence highlights ongoing training efforts, focusing on basic skills and urban combat.
• Attacks on Recruitment Centers: Ukrainian authorities attribute a series of attacks on military recruitment centers to Russian sabotage.
• Artillery Losses (Claim): The Ukrainian General Staff claims significant Russian artillery losses in 2024 (13,000 systems), exceeding previous years.
• Crimea Mobile Network Outages: The confirmed mobile network outages across multiple Crimean cities are a significant development.
• Ukraine-UK Meeting: Zelensky met with the UK Foreign Minister.
• Ukrainian Military Adaptability: The confirmed use of quad bikes for various roles highlights the adaptability of Ukrainian forces.

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III. Overall Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by:

1. Escalating Drone Warfare: Widespread and intensifying drone attacks across multiple regions, with confirmed use of a new Russian airfield, demonstrate the central role of drone warfare.
2. Russian Advances (Kharkiv and Donetsk): Russian forces are making confirmed, significant advances, particularly around Kupyansk (establishing a crucial bridgehead) and in the Pokrovsk direction. These represent serious threats to Ukrainian defensive lines.
3. Geopolitical Uncertainty: The Russia-Belarus security agreement, uncertainty over US aid, and the upcoming Trump peace plan create a volatile geopolitical environment.
4. Information Warfare: Both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, with conflicting claims and propaganda.
5. Humanitarian Cost: The ongoing conflict continues to exact a heavy toll on civilians, with reports of casualties, infrastructure damage, and the poor health of returned POWs.
6. Deteriorating Situation: Reports suggest that the overall situation is degrading for Ukraine.
7. Potential Diplomatic Shift: Reports suggest that preliminary talks are being had between Russia and the US.

The combination of confirmed Russian advances, intensified drone warfare, the alarming Russia-Belarus security agreement, and uncertainty over future US aid points towards a worsening situation for Ukraine. The confirmed prisoner exchange is a positive development, but it doesn't offset the broader negative trends. The upcoming presentation of Trump's peace plan adds another layer of complexity and uncertainty. The meeting between Zelenskyy and the UK Foreign Secretary confirms continued international support, but it also suggests a shift towards a more self-sufficient stance from Ukraine. The reported Russian successes and strategic shifts require immediate and decisive responses from the Ukrainian High Command.

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