Daily Report from 2025-02-20 18:01:08:

Military Intelligence Daily Summary - Ukrainian Perspective (February 20, 2025)

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: AI Military Intelligence Assistant Date: February 20, 2025 (18:00 UTC - Covering reports from February 20, 2025, 00:00 UTC to February 20, 2025, 18:00 UTC)

---

I. Executive Summary

The period from February 20, 00:00 UTC, to February 20, 18:00 UTC, saw a major escalation of the conflict, marked by:

1. Confirmed Major Russian Advances: Russian forces made significant, confirmed gains:
   • Novoocheretuvate (Donetsk Oblast): Fully captured by Russian forces, with geolocated video evidence. This is a major strategic loss for Ukraine.
   • Multiple Locations: Russian forces are also claiming significant advances near Kupyansk and Kurakhovo.
   • Sumy Oblast: Reports of a failed Russian incursion attempt with BMD-2s, contradicting previous Russian claims. This requires urgent verification.
   • Reported Advances: Near Andriivka, Ulakly, Kostyantynopil', Zapadne, Dvorichna, Belohorivka, Chasiv Yar, Vasyukivka, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Novopil, Novoselka, Orikhiv, Huliaipilske, and Prydniprovskyi.
2. Intensified Russian Air Campaign: Russia continued its relentless bombardment of Ukraine, using a combination of:
   • Massive Drone Swarms: Including "Shahed" type and others, targeting multiple regions.
   • Cruise Missiles: Including Kh-101/Kh-55 (air-launched) and Kalibr/Iskander-K (sea/ground-launched).
   • Ballistic Missiles: Including Iskander-M/KN-23.
   • Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Extensively used, including against civilian infrastructure.
   • Targeting: Primarily critical infrastructure (energy, gas) and military targets. Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Kyiv regions were heavily targeted.

• Ukrainian Claims: Ukrainian Air Force claims to have shot down 80 Shahed drones and 78 decoy drones.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: There was a Ballistic Missile Threat, which was later lifted.

3. US-Ukraine Relations in Crisis:
   • Weapon Sales Halt: Reports that the US has halted weapon sales to Ukraine (pending clarification of "free aid" status). This is a potentially catastrophic development.
   • Escalating Rhetoric: Direct criticism of Zelensky by US officials (Vance) and increasingly negative rhetoric from Trump and his allies.
   • Rare Earth Metals Deal: A failed deal over Ukrainian rare earth metals is reportedly a key factor in the deteriorating relationship. Conflicting reports exist, with some suggesting Ukraine thwarted a deal unfavorable to its interests, and others claiming Zelensky missed a meeting with a US official. Reports also suggest Trump is seeking significant control over Ukrainian resources.
   • US-Russia Negotiations: Ongoing talks, with the US reportedly no longer co-authoring a UN resolution demanding Russian withdrawal. Reports also suggest the US is now opposed to using the term "aggressor" to describe Russia in a G7 statement.
   • White House Statement: A statement from the White House notes a "coincidence of interests" with Russia on the Ukraine crisis, suggesting a major shift in US policy.
   • Ukrainian Response: Ukrainian officials are actively refuting the claims made.

• Trump: Trump has publicly criticized Zelensky and the Ukrainian Government. He is actively spreading propaganda.

4. Potential European Troop Deployment (Post-Ceasefire):

   • Reports suggest a potential deployment of British and other European troops to Ukrainian cities, ports, and nuclear power plants after a ceasefire agreement. This is contingent on a ceasefire and would not involve a peacekeeping role.
   • Polish Position: Polish Prime Minister has proposed a three step plan.

5. Confirmed Ukrainian Sabotage of Russian Drone Goggles:

   • Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) confirmed responsibility for sabotaging Russian FPV drone goggles with explosives, distributed through volunteer organizations. This is a major intelligence and psychological warfare success.

6. Hungarian Obstruction:

   • Hungary continues to block EU aid and sanctions extensions, further undermining European unity.

7. Intensified Fighting in Multiple Locations:

   • Kharkiv: Fighting is occurring in multiple directions.
   • Kursk/Sumy Region: Extremely volatile and unclear situation. Conflicting reports of incursions, intense fighting, and significant casualties. Putin's direct involvement highlights the importance of this area. Russian forces are reportedly using TOS-1A thermobaric weapons.
   • Donetsk: Fighting is occurring in multiple directions.
   • Zaporizhzhia: Fighting is occurring in multiple directions.
   • Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces reported advances.
   • Dnipropetrovsk: Russian forces reportedly advancing.
   • Odessa: Explosions reported.

8. Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensive Preparations: Russian sources are claiming that Ukraine is building up forces for a potential incursion.

9. Claimed Atrocities:

   • Kursk Region: Russian sources continue to make unverified claims of Ukrainian atrocities against civilians.
   • Russian Executions: Reports of Russian commanders executing their own soldiers.

---

II. Detailed Assessments and Recommendations by Key Area

A. Military Operations

1. Russian Advances (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Russian forces have made confirmed, significant gains in NOVOOCHERETUVATE, and are claiming further advances on multiple fronts. The situation around CHASIV YAR is particularly critical. The reported Russian preparations for a DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING represent a POTENTIAL MAJOR ESCALATION. The KURSK/SUMY REGION is a NEW HOTSPOT, with CONFLICTING REPORTS of incursions and INTENSE FIGHTING.
   • Recommendations:
     • Urgently verify all reported Russian advances, prioritizing the areas around CHASIV YAR, KURAKHOVO, ANDRIIVKA, ZELENE POLE, NOVOSELKA, NOVOOCHERETUVATOE, BURLATSKOYE, KUPYANSK, LYMAN, and the KURSK/SUMY BORDER.
     • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence, signals intelligence).
     • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in threatened areas, deploying additional troops, equipment, and fortifications.
     • Prepare for potential counter-offensives to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian momentum.
     • Address logistical challenges and ensure adequate supplies reach frontline units.
     • Prepare for a potential Russian offensive across the Dnieper River, including increased surveillance, deployment of air defenses, reinforcement of eastern bank positions, and development of contingency plans.

2. Air and Drone Warfare (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Russia continues its intense air campaign, using drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and guided aerial bombs. Critical infrastructure (energy, gas) is a primary target. Ukrainian air defenses are under extreme pressure, but continue to claim successes. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and military assets are confirmed.
   • Recommendations:
     • Maintain maximum air defense readiness across all of Ukraine, prioritizing areas under immediate threat and critical infrastructure.
     • Deploy all available resources to counter drone and missile attacks, including electronic warfare systems.
     • Continue to develop and deploy countermeasures against fiber-optic guided drones.
     • Enhance Ukrainian drone capabilities for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack, focusing on disrupting Russian logistics, command and control, and artillery positions.
     • Seek additional air defense systems and munitions from Western allies.

•    *Respond to and report Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks*.
  

3. Confirmed Ukrainian Sabotage of Russian Drone Goggles (High Priority):
   • Assessment: This represents a major Ukrainian success in counter-drone warfare and psychological operations. It has significantly damaged Russian drone capabilities and sown distrust within Russian ranks.
   • Recommendations:
     • Exploit this success for propaganda purposes, highlighting Ukrainian ingenuity and Russian vulnerability.
     • Analyze the operation's success to identify replicable tactics for future counter-drone and psychological operations.
     • Explore further opportunities to disrupt Russian drone operations through sabotage, electronic warfare, or other means.

B. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Situation

1. US-Ukraine Relations Crisis (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: The reported halt of US weapon sales, combined with increasingly hostile rhetoric from Trump and his allies and demands for control over Ukrainian resources, represents a MAJOR CRISIS in US-Ukraine relations. This THREATENS UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO CONTINUE THE WAR and INCREASES PRESSURE to negotiate on unfavorable terms.
   • Recommendations:
     • Urgently seek clarification from the US government regarding the reported halt of weapon sales, the status of the rare earth metals deal, and the overall US policy towards Ukraine.
     • Engage in high-level diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation and reassert Ukrainian interests.
     • Coordinate with European allies to develop a unified response to the potential shift in US policy.
     • Prepare contingency plans for a potential reduction or withdrawal of US support, including exploring alternative sources of aid and security guarantees.
     • Develop a clear and consistent communications strategy to address the situation and maintain public morale.

2. US-Russia Negotiations (High Priority):

   • Assessment: Ongoing talks, excluding Ukraine, raise serious concerns about potential agreements that could undermine Ukrainian interests. The reported US shift towards recognizing Russian "advantages" on the ground is highly concerning.
   • Recommendations:
     • Monitor the talks closely, gathering intelligence on the topics discussed and any potential agreements reached.
     • Demand transparency from the US and Russia regarding the negotiations.
     • Insist on direct Ukrainian participation in any talks that affect its future.
     • Coordinate with European allies to present a unified front and resist pressure to make unacceptable concessions.

3. European Division (High Priority):

   • Assessment: The lack of agreement on deploying peacekeeping troops and Hungary's continued obstructionism on aid and sanctions highlight divisions within the EU that weaken Ukraine's position.
   • Recommendations:
     • Intensify diplomatic efforts to bridge the gap between European countries.
     • Emphasize the need for a unified European response to Russian aggression.
     • Seek concrete commitments from individual European countries on military and financial support.
     • Explore alternative mechanisms for providing support to Ukraine if EU unity cannot be maintained.

4. Potential European Troop Deployment (High Priority):

   • Assessment: The proposal for a post-conflict deployment of European troops is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. While CONTINGENT ON A CEASEFIRE, it suggests a potential WESTERN SECURITY GUARANTEE for Ukraine.
   • Recommendations:
     • Seek further clarification on the details of the proposal, including the size, composition, and mandate of the potential force.
     • Assess the feasibility of such a deployment and its potential impact on the security situation.
     • Engage in discussions with European partners to refine the proposal and ensure it meets Ukraine's needs.

5. Polish Three-Step Plan (Medium Priority):

   • Assessment: Poland's proposal to use frozen Russian assets to finance aid for Ukraine, strengthen air defenses, and adjust EU fiscal rules to support defense spending is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   • Recommendations:
     • Support Poland's initiative and work with other EU members to gain support for it.
     • Explore the legal and practical challenges of using frozen Russian assets.

C. Information Warfare

1. Countering Disinformation (High Priority):
   • Assessment: The information environment remains highly contested, with both sides engaging in extensive propaganda and disinformation efforts.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue to proactively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly claims of Ukrainian atrocities, inflated casualty figures, and narratives undermining Zelensky's legitimacy.
     • Promote accurate information through reliable media channels and international platforms.
     • Highlight Russian war crimes and violations of international law.
     • Address the hacking of the Ukrainian internet provider and strengthen cybersecurity measures to prevent future breaches.

• Specifically counter claims about Zelensky's alleged misrepresentation of rare earth metal reserves.

D. Internal Security

1. Espionage and Sabotage (High Priority):
   • Assessment: The confirmed sabotage attempt in Sochi, reports of a prevented attack in Moscow, and the SBU operations against alleged Russian agents highlight the ongoing threat of espionage and sabotage. The reported EXPLOSION IN ODESA requires URGENT INVESTIGATION.
   • Recommendations:
     • Maintain vigilance and enhance counterintelligence efforts.
     • Thoroughly vet personnel with access to sensitive information or critical infrastructure.
     • Increase security measures at military installations, key facilities, and potential targets within Ukraine. Extend this to Russian territory where possible.
     • Investigate the Odesa explosion to determine the cause and prevent future incidents.

E. Other

1. Chernobyl (Medium Priority):

   • Assessment: The damage to the sarcophagus is concerning, though no immediate radiation leak is reported.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue monitoring the situation closely.
     • Cooperate with international organizations (IAEA) to assess the damage and ensure long-term safety.

2. Claimed Improvement of North Korean Missiles (High Priority, Verification Needed):

   • Assessment: If true, this would be a major threat.
   • Recommendation: Verify this claim.

---

III. Overall Assessment

The situation in Ukraine has DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY over the past 24 hours. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, the INTENSIFIED AIR CAMPAIGN, the ESCALATING US-UKRAINE TENSIONS, and the POTENTIAL HALT OF US WEAPON SALES represent a CONVERGENCE OF NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENTS that THREATEN UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO CONTINUE THE WAR. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS THE DNIEPER RIVER adds another layer of EXTREME DANGER. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS to address these threats and MITIGATE THE DAMAGE. The NEED FOR ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, RAPID VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS, AND EFFECTIVE COORDINATION across military, diplomatic, and informational domains is PARAMOUNT. The POTENTIAL FOR A COLLAPSE OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in key areas is HIGH. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY, potentially FORCING UKRAINE INTO UNFAVORABLE NEGOTIATIONS, is also HIGH.