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Daily Report: 2025-04-05 17:05:46

(CONFIDENTIAL // FOR UKRAINIAN HIGH COMMAND USE ONLY)

Military Intelligence Daily Summary: Ukrainian Perspective

Date: April 5, 2025 Time: 08:00 UTC (Covering events up to April 5, 07:30 UTC) Reporting Period: April 4, 17:00 UTC - April 5, 07:30 UTC

I. Executive Summary

  • Kryvyi Rih Mass Casualty Event: The reporting period was dominated by the aftermath of a devastating Russian combined attack on Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4). An initial Iskander-M ballistic missile strike (confirmed with cluster munition) targeting a residential area/playground was followed by a mass Shahed drone attack. Confirmed casualties reached 19 civilians KIA (incl. 9 children) and 68 WIA. Russia engaged in intense information warfare, falsely claiming a strike on a military meeting.
  • Overall Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across the front. 145 combat engagements were reported in the 24 hours preceding 08:00 UTC Apr 5.
  • Primary Russian Offensive Axes: Intense Russian pressure continues, particularly on the Lyman, Pokrovsk, South Donetsk, and Toretsk directions. Significant activity also persists on the Kursk/Sumy border.
  • Ukrainian Operations: Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous assaults. Confirmed successful deep strikes using UAVs targeted strategic industrial sites within Russia (Saransk optical fiber plant, Chapayevsk explosives plant). Operations continue within Kursk Oblast, tying down significant Russian forces. Drone warfare remains critical, with over 77,000 RU targets hit in March 2025.
  • Russian Air & Missile Activity: Russia launched 92 Shahed-type UAVs overnight (Apr 4-5), with 51 confirmed destroyed by Ukrainian Air Defence. KAB strikes remain a major threat along frontlines.
  • Key Territorial Updates: Russian advances confirmed within Toretsk city and in Mali Shcherbaky (Orikhiv axis). RU MoD reiterated claims of capturing Uspenivka (Pokrovsk) and Rozovka (Novopavlivsk).

II. Major Incident: Kryvyi Rih Combined Attack (Apr 4)

  • Overview: A coordinated Russian attack involving a ballistic missile followed by mass Shahed drones targeted Kryvyi Rih, resulting in a major civilian casualty event.
  • Casualties (Final - Rescue Ops Concluded):
    • Killed: 19 civilians (including 9 children).
    • Wounded: 68 civilians (40 hospitalized, incl. children in critical condition).
  • Attack Details:
    • Missile Strike (Afternoon): Confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition (UGS/Vilkul) launched from Taganrog, Russia, struck a residential area near buildings, a restaurant, and a children's playground. No military targets were present (Vilkul).
    • Shahed Drone Attack (Night): Mass attack followed, causing further casualties (1 KIA, 7 WIA) and damage, including during rescue operations.
  • Damage: Extensive damage reported to ~34 multi-story residential buildings, 6 educational facilities, private houses (1 destroyed), playgrounds, businesses, tram infrastructure, vehicles.
  • Russian Information Warfare: Russia falsely claimed the strike targeted a military meeting with Western instructors (claiming 85 KIA). Persistent efforts to deny civilian casualties and dispute the use of cluster munitions, despite confirmation by UGS and visual evidence.

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Past 24-48 Hours)

  • Russian Strikes on Ukraine:
    • Shahed UAV Attack (Night Apr 4-5): 92 Shaheds launched. UA Air Force confirmed 51 destroyed. Impacts confirmed in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk (Kryvyi Rih: 1 KIA, 7 WIA; Nikopol district: 1 WIA; Synelnykove district: 3 WIA from KAB), Kyiv (debris fire, no casualties), Zhytomyr Oblasts.
    • Aviation Strikes: 107 strikes using 171 KABs reported (UGS, 24h to 08:00 UTC Apr 5). KABs remain a primary tool along frontlines.
    • Other Strikes: High volume of artillery/MLRS fire (6353 shelling attacks, 105 MLRS - UGS). FPV drone attacks on civilian infrastructure continue (e.g., Ivashky, Kharkiv Oblast). Targeted strike on Kherson TPP (Apr 4).
  • Ukrainian Deep Strikes into Russia (Night Apr 4-5):
    • Saransk, Mordovia: Confirmed UAV strike caused a large fire at the "Optical Fiber Systems" plant, reportedly Russia's sole producer of critical fiber optics. Follow-up UAV attempt reported Apr 5 morning (impacted, failed to detonate).
    • Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast: Confirmed UAV strike caused a fire at the "Promsintez" explosives plant (a major producer, previously targeted). SBU claimed responsibility, reporting multiple explosions and production halt.
  • Russian Air Defence Claims: Claimed interception of 77 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across 11 regions and occupied territories.
  • Current Threats (as of 09:30 UTC Apr 5): Ongoing threat of KAB launches and tactical aviation activity along frontlines. Previous ballistic missile threat ended.

IV. Key Frontline Developments (UGS 08:00 UTC Apr 5 & Recent Intel)

  • Lyman Axis: Highest Intensity. 39 Russian attacks reported past 24h. Focus towards Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, Nadiia. RU sources claim advances near Makiivka and Ivanivka.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity. 40 Russian attacks repelled past 24h. RU pressure continues near Andriivka, Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka, Uspenivka (claimed captured by RU MoD). Significant RU losses reported Apr 4 (148 personnel neutralized, equipment). RU forces reportedly using armed UGVs.
  • Toretsk Axis: Very High Intensity. 20 Russian attacks past 24h. Russian advance within Toretsk city limits confirmed (DeepState, Apr 4). Oleksandropil previously confirmed captured by RU.
  • Kursk Border / Sumy Oblast: 18 Russian attacks repelled by UA forces operating in Kursk Oblast (past 24h). Operations assessed to tie down ~64,000 RU troops. Intense RU shelling/air strikes continue. Confirmed UA MiG-29 strike using AASM Hammer near Huyevo (Russia). Reports of UA deep strikes with Helsing HF-1 AI drones. RU sources claim capture of Basovka (Sumy) and ongoing fighting near Oleshnia/Huyevo (Kursk).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: 6 Russian attacks repelled past 24h. RU forces claim advances near Bohatyr (>1.5km depth). UA 46th Airmobile Bde confirmed defending near Kurakhove. Active RU drone/artillery operations reported.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 4 Russian attacks repelled past 24h. Russian advance confirmed in Mali Shcherbaky (DeepState, Apr 4). Intense RU drone/shelling activity reported across the region (560 kamikaze strikes - SDF).
  • Kupyansk Axis: 4 Russian attacks repelled past 24h. RU sources claim advancing within Kondrashovka.
  • Kramatorsk / Chasiv Yar Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled past 24h near Kurdyumivka. RU claims drone strike on UA personnel concentration near Chasiv Yar.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson Left Bank): No RU offensive actions reported past 24h. Ukrainian drone strikes targeting RU positions continue.

V. Ukrainian Operations & Capabilities

  • Defensive Successes: Repelled 145 attacks over 24h. Continued effective defense in Kursk border region. Repelled RU mechanized assault (Pokrovsk) and motorcycle assault (Novopavlivsk) in recent days.
  • Offensive Actions: Ongoing operations in Kursk Oblast. Deep strikes against strategic targets in Russia (Saransk, Chapayevsk). Confirmed cross-border air strike (MiG-29 w/ AASM Hammer).
  • Drone Warfare: Critical capability nearing parity with artillery (Syrskyi). 77,000+ RU targets hit in March. Significant successes in countering RU recon UAVs (~1000 in month). Operational use of 20km range fiber-optic drones. Active FPV/tactical drone strikes by numerous units targeting personnel, armor, SPGs, logistics. Significant influx of drones via crowdfunding/regional support confirmed.
  • Targeting Successes: Previous confirmed destruction of RU Tirada-2 EW and Strela-10 SAM systems.

VI. Russian Tactics, Capabilities & Issues

  • Tactics: Heavy reliance on KABs. Mass Shahed attacks. High volume artillery/MLRS. Ground assaults accepting high losses. Use of cluster munitions against civilian areas (Kryvyi Rih). Use of motorcycles/buggies for assaults. Deployment of fiber-optic FPVs. Use of armed UGVs reported (Pokrovsk).
  • Personnel & Logistics: NATO assessment suggests faster-than-expected force generation/replacement. Spring conscription (160k target) ongoing. Persistent reports of poor morale, high losses, inadequate casualty evacuation, potential command corruption/abuse (ASTRA/MOBILIZATSIA reports). Continued reliance on volunteer crowdfunding for basic equipment (drones, batteries, vehicles).
  • Information Warfare: Intense campaign surrounding Kryvyi Rih (denial, blame-shifting). Promotion of alleged POW testimonies (torture claims, commander abuses). Claims of UA looting/atrocities in Kursk. Dissemination of high UA loss figures. Framing UA deep strikes as attacks on civilian infrastructure. Narratives of Western division/fatigue.

VII. Naval Situation (Apr 5 AM)

  • Black Sea: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier deployed (potential salvo: 4 missiles).
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 Kalibr carriers remain (potential salvo: 26 missiles).
  • Azov Sea: No Russian warships reported.

VIII. Political & Diplomatic Context

  • International Support: UK/French Chiefs of Defence Staff met UA leadership in Kyiv (Apr 4) discussing potential partner security personnel deployment. Ongoing aid deliveries (Starlink, Danish/German packages).
  • Peace Negotiations: No progress. Zelenskyy maintains RU shows no desire for ceasefire. Reports of potential French role in future talks (Macron). Continued focus on alleged US-Russia backchannel talks (Dmitriev).
  • Hybrid Warfare: Allegations of RU GRU sabotage plot using parcel bombs in Europe persist.

(End Summary)

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