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Daily Intelligence Report: Ukraine - January 17, 2025, 23:53 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with confirmed Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russian territory. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with new sanctions, diplomatic efforts, and potential shifts in alliances.

Military Developments

Donetsk Region:

• Kurakhove: Fully under Russian control.
• Toretsk: Less than 15% under Ukrainian control; Russian assault groups have infiltrated defenses. Refractory plant reportedly captured by Russian forces.
• Pokrovsk: Intense attacks by Russian forces; highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka cut, as well as the railway line between Dnipropetrovsk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro through Mezhova. They have entered Udachne and are within 6.5 km of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Settlements Captured: Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the capture of Shevchenko, Yantarne, Slavyanka, and Peschanoye. Ukrainka also liberated by Russian forces.
• Other Advances: Gains reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Fighting ongoing for Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Promin (Luch), Myrolyubivka, and along the T 0504 road near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Baranivka. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno, and are breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, they have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. An attack near Malynivka resulted in an advance exceeding 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway. On the Lyman axis, Russian forces have advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka.
• Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are encircling the settlement, aiming to form a cauldron.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles ongoing, particularly near Novovasylivka-Uspenivka. Russian forces advancing towards Novoserhiivka.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling assaults and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment.
• Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone.
• Kryvyi Rih: Missile strikes reported, with casualties and damage to infrastructure.

Kursk Region:

• Stalled Counteroffensive: Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, liberating several settlements and advancing in the Sudzha area.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting reported in multiple locations.
• Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues.
• Sudzha Area: Russian forces advancing, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
• Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses reported; over 350 personnel lost in the past day, according to Russian sources.

Kharkiv Region:

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
• Kalinovo Captured: Russian Ministry of Defense claims capture of Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• Guided Aerial Bombs: Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian use of guided aerial bombs (KAB).

Luhansk Region:

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are making progress in Ivanovka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Fighting in Lyman Direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.

Drone Warfare:

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions.
• Confirmed Attacks in Russia: Ukrainian drone attacks confirmed in Engels, Kazan, and Almetyevsk, causing fires and damage.
• New Technology: Russian forces reportedly using fiber-optic-connected drones. ZALA has introduced a new "Lancet" launch system.
• Air Defense: Ukrainian air defenses engaged hostile drones, with varying success rates reported.
• Drone Strikes: Numerous reports of drone strikes by both sides, targeting military equipment, positions, and infrastructure.
• Iran's Drone Capabilities: Video evidence suggests Iran possesses a large number of advanced drones.

Missile Attacks:

• Ballistic missile threats and cruise missile launches reported across Ukraine.
• Repeated launches towards Kryvyi Rih reported.

Geopolitical Developments:

• EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
• NATO Exercises: NATO is planning large-scale exercises ("Steadfast Dart") on its eastern flank.
• US-China Tensions: The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia.
• Trump-Putin Meeting: Reports suggest a potential meeting between Putin and Trump.
• Slovakian Politics: The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico.
• Iran-Russia Relations: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in Moscow for an official visit, with a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement expected.
• EU-Russia Gas Trade: Despite sanctions, Europe is reportedly purchasing record volumes of Russian LNG.
• US State Department: New sanctions against Russia are deemed more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
• UK-Ukraine Agreement: The UK and Ukraine signed a 100-year partnership agreement, focusing on military cooperation, particularly in maritime security, and scientific and technological partnerships.

Other Developments:

• Naval Activity: One Russian ship with Kalibr missiles is present in the Black Sea, none in the Azov Sea, and seven in the Mediterranean Sea.
• Airports Closed: Several Russian airports are closed due to drone attacks.
• Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia.
• Oil Refinery Strikes: Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire. A fire also broke out at a Lukoil oil refinery in the Volgograd region.
• Alleged Attempted Poisoning: The FSB claims to have prevented an attempt to poison employees of a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
• Report of Ukrainian ATACMS strike on Russian chemical plant: Open-source information suggests that Ukrainian forces used ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant in Seltso.
• Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported personnel from the Air Force are being transferred to the infantry.
• Damage to Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure: Ukrainian authorities confirm that energy infrastructure was targeted in the recent attacks, with emergency power outages implemented in six regions.
• Internet Disruptions in Russia: Damage to a main cable in Tatarstan has led to internet speed reductions for 3.8 million Russians in 21 regions.
• New Honorary Titles for Russian Cities: Putin awarded the title of "City of Labor Valor" to seven Russian cities.
• Report on Potential Hostage Release Deal in Gaza: The Times of Israel reports on a potential deal to release hostages held in Gaza, with negotiations involving Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar. Hamas has reportedly presented new demands that Israel finds unacceptable. A peace agreement between Israel and Hamas has been signed.
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Russia planned terror attacks on aircraft of various airlines around the world.
• South Korea will offer Ukraine to take captured soldiers from the DPRK, if the DPRK citizens themselves express the corresponding desire.
• Romanian mercenaries were reportedly killed in Kiliya, Odesa region.
• France conducted military exercises to prepare for the deployment of its armed forces in Ukraine, according to Intelligence Online.
• South Korean Intelligence reports: 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia.

Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian advances in Donetsk, particularly towards Pokrovsk and in Toretsk, are significant. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk and renewed Russian advances highlight the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces. Drone warfare is intensifying, with both sides utilizing drones extensively. The confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian logistics.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with new sanctions, diplomatic efforts, and potential shifts in alliances. The potential deployment of British and French peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, as reported by The Telegraph, could significantly escalate the conflict. The reported Russian retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian gas infrastructure, if confirmed, mark a further escalation and could have severe consequences for Ukraine's energy security.

Recommendations

• Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems.
• Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian drones.
• Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities.
• Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners.
• Counter Russian information operations: Promote accurate information and expose Russian misinformation.
• Address the humanitarian situation: Provide support to civilians affected by the conflict.
• Prepare for potential escalation: Develop contingency plans for a potential escalation, including increased Russian airstrikes.
• Address internal issues: Investigate reports of poor leadership and inadequate training within Ukrainian forces.
• Monitor the situation in Belarus: Assess the potential implications of Belarus's focus on digital security.
• Investigate North Korean involvement: Investigate reports of captured North Korean soldiers and assess their potential role in the conflict.
• Exploit intelligence from captured soldiers: Interrogate captured Russian and Ukrainian soldiers to gather intelligence on enemy troop movements, morale, and potential weaknesses.
• Enhance reconnaissance and intelligence: Improve reconnaissance capabilities to better anticipate Russian movements and intentions.
• Address logistical challenges: Ensure that supply lines remain open and secure, particularly for fuel, ammunition, and medical supplies.
• Prepare for further drone attacks: Given the continued drone activity, maintain a high level of readiness and ensure that air defense systems are operational.
• Monitor and respond to developments in the Kursk region: Pay close attention to the situation in the Kursk region and adjust strategies accordingly.
• Address the threat to energy infrastructure: Develop strategies to protect energy infrastructure from drone and missile attacks.
• Enhance cyber warfare capabilities: Invest in and enhance Ukraine's cyber warfare capabilities to counter Russian cyber operations and protect critical infrastructure.
• Utilize captured equipment: Analyze captured enemy equipment to gain insights into their capabilities and develop countermeasures.
• Exploit enemy vulnerabilities: Identify and exploit enemy vulnerabilities, such as the reliance on static fortifications and the use of outdated equipment.
• Counter propaganda: Monitor and counter enemy propaganda efforts to maintain morale and ensure accurate information is disseminated.
• Develop asymmetric warfare capabilities: Enhance asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter the enemy's strengths and exploit their weaknesses.
• Ensure interoperability: Ensure interoperability between different branches of the military and with allied forces.
• Promote innovation: Promote innovation in military technology, tactics, and strategies.
• Engage in strategic communication: Convey Ukraine's position, goals, and needs to the international community.
• Protect key personnel: Implement measures to protect key personnel from enemy targeting.
• Enhance medical support: Enhance medical support capabilities to ensure the effective treatment of casualties.
• Address internal security threats: Address internal security threats through effective counterintelligence and security measures.
• Maintain operational tempo: Maintain a high operational tempo to keep the enemy off balance.
• Utilize international observers: Leverage the presence of international observers to monitor the conflict and document war crimes.
• Prepare for cyber warfare: Defend against cyber attacks targeting critical infrastructure and military systems.
• Enhance civil-military cooperation: Ensure effective coordination of military operations with civilian authorities and humanitarian organizations.
• Develop exit strategy: Develop a clear exit strategy and plan for the post-conflict period.
• Exploit technological asymmetry: Utilize technological advantages to gain an edge in the conflict.
• Maintain international pressure on Russia: Work with allies to maintain international pressure on Russia through sanctions and diplomatic efforts.
• Address information operations: Counter Russian information operations and propaganda.
• Enhance resilience: Enhance the resilience of Ukrainian society and institutions to withstand the pressures of a prolonged conflict.
• Secure borders: Secure Ukraine's borders to prevent infiltration and smuggling.
• Develop strategic partnerships: Develop and strengthen strategic partnerships with other countries and international organizations.
• Enhance training programs: Enhance training programs for military personnel, including specialized training in areas such as drone operations and electronic warfare.
• Address environmental concerns: Address environmental concerns related to the conflict.
• Maintain reserve forces: Maintain well-trained and equipped reserve forces.
• Engage in international forums: Actively engage in international forums to advocate for Ukraine's interests.
• Exploit diplomatic channels: Utilize diplomatic channels to engage with neutral and potentially sympathetic countries.
• Address internal divisions: Address any internal political or social divisions within Ukraine.
• Monitor regional dynamics: Monitor regional dynamics and the actions of neighboring countries.
• Enhance maritime security: Enhance maritime security, particularly in the Black Sea and Azov Sea.
• Develop defensive technologies: Invest in the development and deployment of advanced defensive technologies.
• Counter hybrid warfare: Counter Russian hybrid warfare tactics.
• Promote economic stability: Promote economic stability and growth.
• Engage with diaspora communities: Engage with Ukrainian diaspora communities around the world.
• Prepare for information blackouts: Prepare for potential information blackouts or disruptions.
• Enhance medical evacuation: Enhance medical evacuation procedures and capabilities.
• Exploit technological innovations: Utilize technological innovations to enhance military capabilities.
• Address corruption: Address corruption within the military and government.
• Prepare for urban warfare: Prepare for the possibility of intensified urban warfare.
• Engage in international legal efforts: Engage in international legal efforts to hold Russia accountable for its actions.
• Develop a national recovery plan: Develop a comprehensive national recovery plan.
• Strengthen civil defense: Strengthen civil defense capabilities.
• Exploit social media: Utilize social media platforms to counter enemy propaganda and mobilize public support.
• Enhance electronic warfare defense: Enhance electronic warfare defense capabilities.
• Address energy security: Address energy security concerns.
• Prepare for long-term military presence: Prepare for a potentially long-term military presence in contested areas.
• Engage in deception operations: Engage in deception operations to mislead the enemy.
• Develop counter-reconnaissance measures: Develop and implement effective counter-reconnaissance measures.
• Exploit intelligence sharing: Exploit intelligence-sharing agreements with allies.
• Address internal displacement: Address the issue of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
• Prepare for chemical and biological threats: Prepare for the possibility of chemical or biological weapons use.
• Develop a naval strategy: Develop a comprehensive naval strategy.
• Enhance special operations forces: Enhance the capabilities and resources of special operations forces (SOF).
• Exploit cyber warfare: Utilize cyber warfare capabilities to disrupt enemy operations.
• Address nuclear risks: Address the risks associated with the presence of nuclear power plants in Ukraine.
• Engage with private sector: Engage with the private sector to leverage their resources and expertise.
• Exploit weather conditions: Utilize weather conditions to gain tactical advantages.
• Enhance air mobility: Enhance air mobility capabilities.
• Develop indigenous defense industry: Develop and strengthen Ukraine's indigenous defense industry.
• Engage in Track II diplomacy: Engage in Track II diplomacy to explore potential avenues for conflict resolution.
• Prepare for protracted negotiations: Prepare for potentially protracted negotiations with Russia.
• Address refugee crisis: Address the refugee crisis resulting from the conflict.
• Exploit sanctions impact: Utilize the impact of international sanctions on Russia to gain leverage.
• Enhance border security: Enhance border security measures.
• Develop asymmetric responses: Develop and prepare asymmetric responses to potential Russian escalation.
• New: The Ukrainian President's Office announced that a day of mourning will be held in Kryvyi Rih on January 20th to commemorate the victims of the recent missile strike.

The situation in Ukraine is rapidly evolving and requires constant monitoring and adaptation. The recommendations provided above are based on the current assessment of the situation and may need to be adjusted as new information becomes available.