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Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 1, 2025, 15:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely dynamic and volatile. Russian forces are maintaining their offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they control approximately 80% of Kurakhove and captured the strategically important Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. They are pushing towards Pokrovsk and making gains in the Vremivka direction. Intense fighting is ongoing in Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), with some Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk reportedly destroyed, potentially using a combination of fog and smoke grenades for cover.

Ukrainian forces are in a difficult position, conducting a fighting withdrawal from Kurakhove to avoid encirclement and trying to establish a new defensive line near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. They are reporting limited counteroffensives in the Kursk region and near Kreminna, but these appear to be localized and have not significantly altered the overall strategic picture.

Drone warfare remains a defining characteristic of the conflict, with heavy activity reported across numerous oblasts. Overnight, a massive Russian drone attack involving 111 drones targeted Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses claim to have shot down 63, with 46 "locationally lost" due to countermeasures, and two drones allegedly flying into Russia and Belarus. The Kyiv drone attack resulted in at least seven casualties, infrastructure damage, and fires, with at least four "Shahed" drones reportedly striking residential areas. This incident raises serious concerns about the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses around the capital.

The gas transit issue has escalated, with Ukraine officially halting the flow of Russian gas through its territory on January 1, 2025. This action has significant implications for European energy markets, particularly for countries reliant on Russian gas. While the EU claims readiness, the immediate impact is evident in rising gas prices and the disruption of heating and hot water supplies in Pridnestrovie.

The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to report significant Ukrainian losses and claims to have struck a Ukrainian energy facility supplying the military-industrial complex. They also highlight the destruction of Ukrainian naval drones and the downing of HIMARS rockets.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex. The Financial Times suggests a potential peace agreement in 2025, while Sky News reports Kremlin hopes for negotiations concluding by May 9th. However, Russia has stated it will not participate in the "peace summit" organized by Ukraine, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has declared that there are currently no preconditions for ending the conflict. Meanwhile, Slovakian Prime Minister Fico's statements regarding the gas transit issue highlight potential divisions within the EU.

Key Developments

Drone Warfare

• Kyiv: Suffered a severe drone attack, with multiple drones approaching from different directions. Air defenses were active, but falling debris caused fires, damage, and casualties. Reports suggest drones may have bypassed defenses, striking near the President's Office.
• Sevastopol: Another drone attack was repelled, with multiple drones and at least one naval drone shot down.
• Mykolaiv Region: Ukrainian air defenses engaged multiple drones. Explosions were reported, and new Shahed drones were observed heading towards the area.
• Donetsk Oblast: Both sides continue to use drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia Oblasts: Widespread drone activity reported, with numerous air raid alerts, drone movements, and engagements.
• Russia: Over 10 drones were destroyed near Voronezh. 13 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed over Russian territory overnight, with more shot down during the day.

Ground Operations

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city and captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Intense fighting continues.
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces captured Storozheve and are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
  • Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces have effectively cut off the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Heavy fighting is ongoing.
  • Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with some Ukrainian positions reportedly destroyed.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Clashes reported near Vovchansk, Lyptsi, and Kupyansk.
• Kursk Region: Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts, with active combat near Sudzha.
• Kupiansk, Siversk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv, Kherson Directions: Clashes reported across multiple locations along these axes.

Strategic and Political Developments

• Gas Transit: Ukraine officially halted Russian gas transit. The EU claims readiness, but the impact on European energy markets is expected to be significant.
• Russian MoD Claims: Russian forces struck a Ukrainian energy facility and claim significant Ukrainian casualties.
• Ukrainian Military Ombudsman: President Zelensky appointed a new military ombudsman.
• SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine.
• Financial Times Prediction: Predicts a potential peace agreement in 2025.
• Sky News Report: Suggests the Kremlin aims to conclude negotiations by May 9th.
• Putin-Sberbank Cooperation: Putin instructed further cooperation between Russia and China in AI.
• Transnistria: Gas supplies cut off, impacting heating and hot water.
• Yemeni Houthis: Claimed to have shot down 14 American MQ-9 drones.
• Hungary: Lost 1 billion euros due to EU non-compliance.
• Czech Republic: Foreign Minister emphasizes accountability for Russia as the starting point for peace.

Casualties and Losses

• Russian Losses: 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment over the past day.
• Ukrainian Losses: Over 160 Russian troops reportedly eliminated in the Donetsk direction in December. At least three battalions lost in the Kurakhove direction recently. Significant casualties reported in the Kursk region.

Other Developments

• Game Advertisement: "Drone Battle: Ukraine" game advertised, highlighting the gamification of warfare.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: Plans announced to obtain Russian licenses for all six power units by 2028.
• Criticism of Zelensky: Negative reactions to Zelensky's New Year's address on social media.
• Casualty Reports: Conflicting reports on casualties from both sides.
• Territorial Control Statistics: Russian forces reportedly expanded their control zone by 3680 sq. km in 2024.
• Humanitarian Situation: "Point of Invincibility" shelter operating in Zaporizhzhia.
• Economic Measures: Minimum price of vodka increased in Russia.
• Military Equipment: Criticism of the deployment of the 155th Mechanized Brigade; reports of Western-supplied equipment (French AASM-250 guided bombs, US-made M119 howitzer) being used.
• Alleged Execution of Finnish Mercenary: Unconfirmed reports of a Finnish mercenary being killed by Russian forces.
• Missile Attacks: Missile attacks reported in Sumy Oblast, with increased air activity.
• Rocket Threat: Rocket threat issued for Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Guided Aerial Bombs: Ukrainian Air Force reported the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk.
• Fighterbomber Video: Nighttime flight operation video, possibly a training exercise, showing the deployment of flares/chaff.
• Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Next round scheduled for January 13 in Geneva.
• Ukrainian Military Aid: Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate received a new "Hazard" drone and a HMMWV vehicle from a US charitable organization.
• Alleged Air Defense Failure: Reports of "Shahed" drones bypassing air defenses and nearly hitting the Office of the President of Ukraine.
• Video of Drone Strike: "Geran-2" drone reportedly striking Kyiv.
• New Year's Greetings: 137th Guards Airborne Regiment sent holiday greetings. Video from 412th and 14th battalions showed drone operations.
• Su-25 Aircraft Video: Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft dropping French AASM-250 guided bombs on Russian positions.
• Search and Clear, Detainment Operations: Videos show soldiers conducting search and clear operations in rural areas and detaining civilians in urban areas.
• Targeted Tank Image: An image shows a tank targeted by a drone.
• Soldier with Drone Equipment Image: An image shows a soldier with drone equipment.
• Russian Lancet Drone Strike: A video shows a Russian Lancet drone destroying a US-made M119 howitzer.
• Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Tank: A video shows a Ukrainian drone striking a camouflaged Russian tank.
• Drone Strike Aftermath in Kyiv: Reports of 6 injuries and 2 deaths, with damage to residential buildings.
• Destruction of Ukrainian Military Equipment: A video shows a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian armored vehicle in Kharkiv region.
• Air Activity: Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers were reported to be in the air.
• Public Opinion: A survey suggests that 46% of Russians believe that 2024 will be better for them than 2023.

Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The capture of the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant and advances in Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka direction are strategically important. Ukrainian forces are facing a difficult situation, conducting a fighting withdrawal while attempting to hold their ground where possible.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict. The massive drone attack on Kyiv demonstrates Russia's continued ability to strike deep into Ukrainian territory, while the reported failure of air defenses to intercept all drones raises concerns. The integration of AI into Shahed drones and the development of new drone models like the "Hortenzia" highlight the ongoing technological arms race.

The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine is a major development with significant geopolitical and economic implications. It will likely exacerbate existing energy security concerns in Europe and could lead to further tensions between Russia and the West.

The reported casualties and losses on both sides underscore the intensity of the fighting. The claims and counterclaims regarding territorial control and equipment losses are difficult to verify independently but point to a fluid and contested battlefield.

The new information about the drone attack on Kyiv, including the casualties and damage to infrastructure, highlights the ongoing threat to civilians and the challenges faced by Ukrainian air defenses. The reports of Russian forces using fog and smoke grenades to cover their attacks suggest a tactical adaptation to mitigate the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones.

The involvement of external actors, such as North Korea and the Yemeni Houthis, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The reported use of French AASM-250 guided bombs by Ukrainian aircraft and the continued supply of Western military aid, including drones from Latvia and a new agreement with SpaceX for Starlink services, demonstrate the international dimension of the war.

The situation is highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The ongoing drone warfare, the ground offensives, the gas transit halt, and the broader geopolitical context all contribute to a complex and unpredictable situation. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict.

Key Concerns

• Drone Warfare Escalation: The increasing sophistication and widespread use of drones by both sides pose a significant threat to military forces and civilian populations. The integration of AI into Russian drones is particularly concerning.
• Kyiv's Vulnerability: The drone attack on Kyiv highlights the capital's vulnerability and the potential for further attacks on critical infrastructure and civilian areas.
• Energy Security: The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine will have significant ramifications for European energy security, potentially leading to higher prices and supply disruptions.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The ongoing fighting and the targeting of civilian infrastructure are exacerbating the humanitarian crisis, with increasing casualties and displacement.
• Geopolitical Instability: The conflict continues to destabilize the region and has broader implications for international relations, particularly between Russia and the West.
• Potential for Escalation: The use of guided aerial bombs, increased air activity, and the ongoing ground offensives suggest a high risk of further escalation.

Recommendations

• Strengthen Air Defenses: Ukraine needs to prioritize strengthening its air defense capabilities, particularly against drones. This includes acquiring and deploying advanced anti-drone systems, improving early warning and detection capabilities, and enhancing the integration of air defense assets.
• Secure Critical Infrastructure: Protecting critical infrastructure, such as energy facilities and government buildings, from drone and missile attacks is paramount. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, implementing physical security measures, and developing contingency plans for damage control and repair.
• Enhance Drone Capabilities: Ukraine should continue to invest in its own drone capabilities, focusing on both offensive and defensive operations. This includes developing and deploying advanced drones, training personnel in drone warfare, and integrating drones into overall military strategy.
• International Support: Continued international support, particularly in the form of military aid, financial assistance, and intelligence sharing, is crucial for Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
• Diplomatic Efforts: While the prospects for a negotiated settlement appear dim at the moment, diplomatic efforts should continue to explore potential avenues for de-escalation and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
• Humanitarian Assistance: The international community must increase humanitarian assistance to address the growing needs of the civilian population affected by the conflict.
• Information Warfare: Both sides need to counter the spread of disinformation and propaganda, while ensuring the accurate and timely dissemination of information to the public.
• Cybersecurity: Enhancing cybersecurity measures is crucial to protect critical infrastructure and government institutions from cyberattacks.
• Energy Security: European countries need to accelerate efforts to diversify their energy sources and reduce their reliance on Russian gas.

The situation in Ukraine is highly complex and rapidly evolving. Continuous monitoring and analysis are essential to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to develop effective strategies to mitigate its impact.