Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 2, 2025, 15:33 UTC)
Key Operational Updates:
Increased Russian Military Spending Intent: The US reportedly intends to significantly increase its military spending to $1.01 trillion in 2026, a 13% increase from 2025. This indicates a continued high level of investment in defense by a key international actor with significant influence on the conflict. (ТАСС)
Continued High Intensity Ground Combat: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 109 combat engagements since the beginning of the day, indicating high activity across the front. The Pokrovsk direction remains the most active with 39 attempted Russian assaults reported today, with seven ongoing. Russian aviation is reportedly using KABs extensively. Russian military bloggers report units of GrV "Center" attacking along the entire Pokrovsk direction, claiming Ukrainian defense is cracking and a Russian DRG engaged the enemy in Pokrovsk itself. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "🅾️тважные" (Russian forces) are destroying NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery near Pokrovsk.Воин DV reports Russian artillery, using "Краснополь," destroyed a dugout and a group of Ukrainian infantry near Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction.
Significant ground combat is also reported on the Lyman (14 attacks), Novopavlivka (15 attempts), and Kursk (13 attacks) directions.
Russian sources claim to have advanced near Grygorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
Colonelcassad shares a video claiming artillery strikes north of Chasiv Yar on a concentration of Ukrainian forces.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video claiming the repulsion of a massive Russian assault on the Lyman direction on January 28, resulting in 24 enemy KIA, 1 BMP destroyed, and 1 motorcycle destroyed.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video claiming Russian assault units destroyed a Ukrainian group holding a "strategically important tree line." Colonelcassad shares the same video, attributing it to @rusich_army.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from Ukrainian air assault forces claiming "perfect work" resulting in the elimination of a group of 7 Russian infantrymen.
Kotsnews reports that soldiers of the 77th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are massively surrendering near Novoye, Lipovoye, and Redkodub on the Krasnolimanskoye (Krasnyi Lyman) direction, claiming they were abandoned by their command.
Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares a video of drone operators from the 4th Mech Battalion targeting Russian infantry on the Svatove direction.
Z комитет + карта СВО reports Russian advances on the Konstantinovka direction near Tarasovka, Berezivka, Elizavetovka, and Novooleksandrivka, providing map imagery.Z комитет + карта СВО also reports Russian advances near Dzerzhinsk, Dyleyevka, and Toretsk on the Konstantinovka direction, providing map imagery.
Claimed Russian Advances and Intensified Combat in Sumy Oblast: A Russian military blogger ([АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА]) claims Russian forces have activated in Sumy Oblast from the Kursk direction, attacking from Zhuravka towards Vodolagi and Belovody and liberating these villages after several days of fighting. They also claim units breached the border near Oleshnya and consolidated positions on Ukrainian territory, despite Ukrainian resistance. The settlement of Gornal is reported under full Russian control after clearing operations, suggesting the "buffer zone" operation in the Kursk area is effectively completed according to this source. Ukrainian brigades are reportedly being urgently transferred to the Sumy direction for counterattacks. The primary target for assault is again reported to be Basovka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that combatants from the area state that in Gornal and partially in Gornal Monastery, the enemy still controls some areas and clearing operations are underway. This intelligence suggests a significant shift in Russian activity and claimed territorial gains in Sumy Oblast, potentially forcing Ukraine to divert reserves, although there are conflicting reports on the full control of Gornal.
Heightened Drone and Aerial Activity:
Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern and northeastern directions, with a threat of aerial weapons use for frontline oblasts.
KABs are reported directed at Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, and now also Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБи on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports that in Synelnykivskyi district, the aggressor struck with KABs on Novopavlivka community, destroying an unused educational institution building with no casualties.
Colonelcassad shares a video reportedly showing a massive raid of "Geran-2" drones on targets in Zaporizhzhia yesterday evening.
Два майора shares a video claiming a Ukrainian UAV attempted to attack a Russian object near Moskovskoye, Stavropol Krai.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims three Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed by air defense systems: two over Kursk Oblast and one over the Republic of Crimea.
STERNENKO shares a video claiming the downing of a "centenary wing" by the Samurai combat group, listing specific types and quantities of downed Russian UAVs: 11 Orlan, 52 Supercam, 25 Zala, 5 Molniya, 3 Lancet, 1 KUB2, 1 Sarych2, and 2 Zala Z20.
Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian air strike with a FAB-3000 on a Ukrainian UAV assembly workshop near Primorskoye, Kherson Oblast, claiming the destruction of up to 45 Ukrainian military personnel and around 60 UAVs.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV southwest of Sumy Oblast.
Continued Ukrainian Naval Drone Activity and Russian Countermeasures:
Два майора and Colonelcassad discuss the Ukrainian attack on Black Sea gas production platforms with unmanned boats (BECs) equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.
Russian sources are discussing and proposing various countermeasures against Ukrainian BECs.
Colonelcassad, citing Rybar, provides details on the combined Ukrainian drone and BEC attack on Crimea last night.
Два майора shares a video from the Kherson direction showing the 8th Guards Artillery Regiment targeting and destroying small Ukrainian landing groups attempting to land on Russian-controlled shores in the Dnipro River estuary.
Diplomatic and Political Developments:
TASS reports the US has stated it will cease its mediation efforts in the Ukrainian settlement.
Zelenskiy/Official reports on a conversation with the Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, discussing further assistance and the path to peace. Zelenskyy states Ukraine immediately supported the US proposal for a full, unconditional ceasefire.
РБК-Україна reports that Trump's team has prepared options to increase economic pressure on Russia.
Басурин о главном reports that the head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, stated that Russia is ready to discuss American presence at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant within a settlement framework.
TASS reports that Maria Zakharova responded to Trump's claim about the US contribution to WWII victory by highlighting the Red Army's role.
TASS reports the US intends to increase military spending to $1.01 trillion in 2026, a 13% increase from 2025.
РБК-Україна reports that Shmyhal stated the minerals agreement will allow for better protection of Ukraine's sky with American air defense systems.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report US Secretary of State Rubio stating that Ukraine will not be able to push Russia back to the 2014 borders, and Russia will not be able to occupy all of Ukraine, concluding there is no military solution to the war.
TASS reports Sergey Kravtsov, Russian Minister of Education, stated that Moldovan history textbooks distort the truth about WWII by calling the Battle of Stalingrad a catastrophe.Kotsnews advocates against using the abbreviation "ВОВ" (WWII) and encourages using the full phrase "Great Patriotic War" in remembrance of the sacrifices made.
РБК-Україна, citing an Israeli military observer, discusses the signs to watch for indicating potential Russian preparations for a new offensive from Belarus.
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports that the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany has classified the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) party as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization.
РБК-Україна reports on a statement by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán claiming Ukraine's entry into the EU threatens Hungary's economy and that money is being "taken by the cartload" to Ukraine.
Басурин о главном announces an upcoming episode of their project "ЧВК" (Honest, Important, Briefly) featuring a professor and writer, discussing current and important topics.
Оперативний ЗСУ reports that according to Axios and "Reporters Without Borders," press freedom in the US has fallen to a historical low, classifying it as "problematic."
General SVR claims that hawks in the Russian Politburo are developing a new virus to potentially trigger another pandemic, intended as a counterbalance to internal political crises in Russia.
Alex Parker Returns shares a post suggesting the US-Ukraine minerals deal is perpetual, that Ukrainian deputies weren't shown the text before voting, and that the fund will be registered in the US with no security guarantees for Ukraine, framing it as a questionable success.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing the NYT, reports that life in Ukraine has become more dangerous since the start of cease-fire talks, with increased civilian casualties and displacement, and a significant increase in Russian missile and drone launches after Trump's initial calls to Putin and Zelenskyy.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that a court in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast sentenced a man to a year of probation for attacking a TCC bus with a bat labeled "Amulet against evil forces" and helping four mobilized individuals escape.
Alex Parker Returns shares a video claiming "Russian fascism has happened."
Internal Russian and Ukrainian Issues:
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a Russian military serviceman killed three comrades in July 2024.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the mobilization of the father of a girl hit by police.
Colonelcassad shares a video comparing the living conditions of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers.
Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming a Russian "loaf" driver transporting a "cargo 200" lost control, resulting in two "cargo 200" from one.
Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the return of a historical architectural monument, the "Panskyi Manor" in Vasylivka, Odesa Oblast, to state ownership.
Старше Эдды reports on a conversation with a Russian military representative highlighting a perceived lack of appreciation for radio-electronic intelligence data. Старше Эдды also shares a video reportedly showing difficult conditions for UAV operators on the front line.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo of a captured pair of Ukrainian military-issue winter gloves, identified by markings and NSN. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is also advertising VDV (Russian Airborne Forces) themed t-shirts for sale and asking for suggestions on other VDV merchandise.
Два майора share a video showing a UAZ Hunter vehicle, acquired through public donations, being used by Russian soldiers on the Zaporizhzhia front.
ASTRA reports that the head of the "representation of Kherson Oblast" in Russia, Vladimir Bodelan, threatened to "return" to Odesa and "punish" those responsible for the May 2, 2014 fire. ASTRA is advertising merchandise for sale with slogans related to their work, available for delivery in Russia, Europe, and the US.
Два майора, citing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, report that the Security Service and Prosecutor's Office of Uzbekistan have begun checking information on 1110 citizens who signed contracts with the Russian Armed Forces.
ТАСС reports the UN is concerned about reports of torture of Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine.
Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo with a sarcastic caption about "non-statutory relations" in the Russian armed forces.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the head of the Cherkasy city TCC faces up to 12 years in prison for disrupting the mobilization plan.
Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video detailing the alleged actions of a servicemember from the Sevastopol 810th brigade sending gifts to minors for intimate photos.
Colonelcassad shares a video reportedly showing Ukrainian TCC officers attempting to detain a man on a scooter in Lutsk.
‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» shares a report on funds transferred from a collaboration with Staff.
ТАСС reports the opening of a reconstruction of the raising of the Victory Banner over the Reichstag at Moschino Park.
РБК-Україна reports that all educational documents, from school certificates to diplomas, will be available in the "Diia" app in Ukraine.
Colonelcassad shares a video comparing prices in an ATB store in Ukraine in 2021 and 2025, implying the current situation is a negative consequence of the "Maidan."
Other Information:
TASS reports an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 off the coast of Argentina.
Север.Реалии reports that the band R.E.M. released a remix to support Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos and text about agricultural work continuing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and a project called "Healthy Food Zaporizhzhia" launched to improve schoolchildren's knowledge about healthy nutrition.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos and text about the transfer of 100 "Mriya 4.5.0" modern unmanned aerial systems to a military unit.
РБК-Україна shares a video claiming Russians are implementing a new, unsuccessful tactic of assaults in Donetsk Oblast using motorcycle columns and ground drones.
Alex Parker Returns shares a satirical post citing Forbes estimating that at the current pace, Russian forces could occupy Ukraine by 2256.
Два майора share a satirical video about a robot attacking engineers in China, linking it humorously to joining the "special military operation."
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated):
Sumy Oblast:Russian military blogger claims activation of Russian forces from the Kursk direction, liberation of Vodolagi and Belovody, breach of the border near Oleshnya, and consolidation on Ukrainian territory. Gornal is reported under full Russian control by this source, though another Russian source reports ongoing clearing operations and Ukrainian control of some areas. Ukrainian brigades are reportedly being urgently transferred for counterattacks. Basovka is reported as a primary assault target. KABs reported directed at the oblast. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Pokrovsk Direction: Continues to be the most active ground combat area, with 39 reported Russian assaults today and seven ongoing. Significant use of KABs by Russian aviation. Russian military bloggers claim advances and fighting within the city limits. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming destruction of NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery near Pokrovsk.(Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Lyman Direction: High intensity ground combat with 14 reported Russian attacks and three ongoing. Ukrainian sources report repelling a massive assault on January 28. Kotsnews reports Ukrainian soldiers are massively surrendering near Novoye, Lipovoye, and Redkodub on the Krasnolimanskoye direction.(Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Kotsnews)
Novopavlivka Direction: High intensity ground combat with 15 reported Russian attempts to break through and three ongoing engagements. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kursk Direction: Active combat with 13 Russian attacks repelled and three ongoing. Significant Russian artillery and aerial bombardment. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing two Ukrainian UAVs. Uzbekistan is investigating citizens who signed contracts with the Russian Armed Forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports that the operation in the area is de-facto completed with Gornal under Russian control, though Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports ongoing clearing and some Ukrainian control.(Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Kramatorsk Direction: Six Russian attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar. Artillery strikes north of Chasiv Yar on Ukrainian forces claimed by Russian sources. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad)
Toretsk Direction: Three Russian attacks reported, with one ongoing engagement. Z комитет + карта СВО reports Russian advances near Dzerzhinsk, Dyleyevka, and Toretsk on the Konstantinovka direction.(Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Z комитет + карта СВО)
Kupiansk Direction: Three Russian attempts to advance repelled. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Huliaipole Direction: Two Russian attacks repelled, with two ongoing. Use of unguided aerial missiles. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Mala Tokmachka and Stepove: Three Russian attacks repelled near these settlements, with one ongoing. KAB strike on Novoandriivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Siversk Direction: A Russian assault near Bilohorivka was repelled. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russia has not conducted offensive actions today. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Stavropol Krai (RU): Claimed Ukrainian UAV attack attempt near Moskovskoye. (Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Reports of a massive "Geran-2" drone raid yesterday evening. Agricultural work is continuing. 100 "Mriya 4.5.0" modern UAVs transferred to a military unit. Russian soldiers on the front are using a UAZ Hunter acquired through public donations. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a project called "Healthy Food Zaporizhzhia" has started for schoolchildren.(Colonelcassad, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Два майора)
Kharkiv Oblast:KABs reported directed at the oblast. Three Russian attack attempts in the Vovchansk area on the Kharkiv direction. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Donetsk Oblast:KABs reported directed at the oblast. Russian FPV drone activity claimed near Dyleyevka and Bogatyr. Russian forces claimed implementing new, unsuccessful assault tactics using motorcycles and ground drones. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia, ASTRA, РБК-Україна)
Crimea: Continued discussion and Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian unmanned boats (BECs). Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing one Ukrainian UAV. Combined Ukrainian drone and BEC attack on Crimea last night reported. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Colonelcassad)
Odesa Oblast: Return of a historical architectural monument to state ownership. Head of the "representation of Kherson Oblast" in Russia threatens to return and punish those responsible for the May 2, 2014 fire. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, ASTRA)
Primorskoye, Kherson Oblast: Colonelcassad claims Russian air strike with FAB-3000 on a Ukrainian UAV assembly workshop. (Colonelcassad)
Grygorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka: Russian forces reported to have advanced in these areas. (Unspecified source)
Kherson Direction (Dnipro River estuary):Два майора reports Russian artillery targeting and destroying small Ukrainian landing groups in the island zone.(Два майора)
Cherkasy Oblast:ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the head of the city TCC faces prison for disrupting mobilization.(ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Svatove Direction:Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian drone operators targeting Russian infantry.(Президентська бригада ЗСУ)
Krasnolimanskoye Direction:Kotsnews reports Ukrainian soldiers are massively surrendering near Novoye, Lipovoye, and Redkodub.MoD Russia shares video claiming FPV drones of the 20th Combined Arms Army neutralized Ukrainian radio relay stations and aerials in this direction.(Kotsnews, MoD Russia)
Konstantinovka Direction:Z комитет + карта СВО reports Russian advances near Tarasovka, Berezivka, Elizavetovka, and Novooleksandrivka, providing map imagery.Z комитет + карта СВО also reports Russian advances near Dzerzhinsk, Dyleyevka, and Toretsk, providing map imagery.(Z комитет + карта СВО)
Southern Donetsk Direction:Воин DV reports Russian artillery, using "Краснополь," destroyed a dugout and a group of Ukrainian infantry near Bogatyr.(Воин DV)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБи on Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports that in Synelnykivskyi district, the aggressor struck with KABs on Novopavlivka community, destroying an unused educational institution building with no casualties. He also reports four people were injured in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Chervonohryhorivka communities due to drone-kamikaze and artillery attacks, with damage to homes, an administrative building, infrastructure, and power lines.(Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Lutsk:Colonelcassad shares a video reportedly showing Ukrainian TCC officers attempting to detain a man on a scooter.(Colonelcassad)
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that a court sentenced a man to a year of probation for attacking a TCC bus and helping mobilized individuals escape.(Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Warfare: Continued widespread use by both sides for attack and reconnaissance. Russian MoD highlights FPV drone operations. Russian sources are discussing and planning countermeasures against Ukrainian unmanned boats (BECs). Reports of a massive "Geran-2" drone raid on Zaporizhzhia yesterday evening. 100 "Mriya 4.5.0" modern UAVs transferred to a military unit. Claimed Ukrainian UAV attack attempt near Moskovskoye, Stavropol Krai. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing two Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk Oblast and one over Crimea. Ukrainian combat group claims downing 100 Russian UAVs of various types. Colonelcassad claims a Russian air strike with FAB-3000 on a Ukrainian UAV assembly workshop near Primorskoye, Kherson Oblast, claiming destruction of Ukrainian UAVs. MoD Russia shares video claiming FPV drones of the 20th Combined Arms Army neutralized Ukrainian radio relay stations and aerials in the Krasny Liman direction.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV southwest of Sumy Oblast.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports drone-kamikaze attacks in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Chervonohryhorivka communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.(MoD Russia, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Два майора, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, STERNENKO, Президентська бригада ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Reported directed at Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, and now also Sumy Oblast. Used by Russian aviation on multiple settlements on the Pokrovsk direction and on Novoandriivka. Nine guided bombs used in five aerial strikes on the Kursk direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports КАБи on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports that in Synelnykivskyi district, the aggressor struck with KABs on Novopavlivka community.(Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Unguided Aerial Missiles: Used by Russia on Malynivka on the Huliaipole direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Tactical Aviation: Activity reported on the southeastern and northeastern directions with a threat of aerial weapons use for frontline oblasts. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Unmanned Boats (BECs): Ukrainian use of BECs targeting Black Sea gas platforms is being discussed by Russian sources. Combined Ukrainian drone and BEC attack on Crimea last night reported. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Colonelcassad)
MLRS: Used by Russia in eight shellings on the Kursk direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Naval Activity: Combined Ukrainian drone and BEC attack on Crimea last night reported. Два майора reports Russian artillery targeting and destroying small Ukrainian landing groups in the Dnipro River estuary.(Два майора, Colonelcassad)
Artillery:Воин DV reports Russian artillery, using "Краснополь," destroyed a dugout and a group of Ukrainian infantry near Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction.🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports artillery attacks in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Chervonohryhorivka communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.(Воин DV, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
US Mediation: TASS reports the US has stated it will cease its mediation efforts in the Ukrainian settlement. (ТАСС)
Ceasefire Proposals: Zelenskyy states Ukraine immediately supported the US proposal for a full, unconditional ceasefire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing the NYT, reports that life in Ukraine has become more dangerous since the start of cease-fire talks, with increased civilian casualties and displacement, and a significant increase in Russian missile and drone launches after Trump's initial calls to Putin and Zelenskyy.(Zelenskiy / Official, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
US Pressure on Russia: Bloomberg reports that Trump's team has prepared options to increase economic pressure on Russia. (РБК-Україна)
Russian Statements on Settlement: Rosatom head stated Russia is ready to discuss American presence at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant within a settlement framework. (Басурин о главном)
Historical Narratives: TASS reports Maria Zakharova responded to Trump's claim about the US contribution to WWII victory by highlighting the Red Army's role. TASS reports Sergey Kravtsov stated Moldovan history textbooks distort the truth about WWII by calling the Battle of Stalingrad a catastrophe.Kotsnews advocates against using the abbreviation "ВОВ" (WWII) and encourages using the full phrase "Great Patriotic War" in remembrance of the sacrifices made.(ТАСС, Kotsnews)
US Military Spending:TASS reports the US intends to increase military spending to $1.01 trillion in 2026, a 13% increase from 2025.(ТАСС)
US Stance on Territorial Control:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report US Secretary of State Rubio stating Ukraine cannot regain 2014 borders and Russia cannot occupy all of Ukraine, concluding there is no military solution exists.(Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Minerals Agreement:РБК-Україна reports that Shmyhal stated the minerals agreement will allow for better protection of Ukraine's sky with American air defense systems.Alex Parker Returns shares a post suggesting the US-Ukraine minerals deal is perpetual, that Ukrainian deputies weren't shown the text before voting, and that the fund will be registered in the US with no security guarantees for Ukraine, framing it as a questionable success.(РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns)
Potential Offensive from Belarus:РБК-Україна, citing an Israeli military observer, discusses the signs to watch for indicating potential Russian preparations for a new offensive from Belarus.(РБК-Україна)
Political Developments in Germany:✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports that the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) party as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization.(✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Statements from Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán:РБК-Україна reports on a statement by Viktor Orbán claiming Ukraine's entry into the EU threatens Hungary's economy and that money is being "taken by the cartload" to Ukraine.(РБК-Україна)
Russian Propaganda Project:Басурин о главном announces an upcoming episode of their project "ЧВК" (Honest, Important, Briefly).(Басурин о главном)
Press Freedom in the US:Оперативний ЗСУ reports that according to Axios and "Reporters Without Borders," press freedom in the US has fallen to a historical low, classifying it as "problematic."(Оперативний ЗСУ)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Military Discipline and Personnel: A Russian military serviceman killed three comrades for refusing an order. Uzbekistan is investigating 1110 citizens who signed contracts with the Russian Armed Forces. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo with a sarcastic caption about "non-statutory relations" in the Russian armed forces.Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video detailing the alleged actions of a servicemember from the Sevastopol 810th brigade sending gifts to minors for intimate photos.(МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Recruitment and Mobilization: Reports on the mobilization of the father of a girl hit by police. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the head of the Cherkasy city TCC faces up to 12 years in prison for disrupting the mobilization plan.Colonelcassad shares a video reportedly showing Ukrainian TCC officers attempting to detain a man on a scooter in Lutsk.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that a court in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast sentenced a man to a year of probation for attacking a TCC bus and helping mobilized individuals escape.(Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Military Blogger Activity: Military bloggers are active in discussing operational details, promoting fundraising, and sharing propaganda. Старше Эдды shares a video reportedly showing difficult conditions for UAV operators on the front line.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is advertising VDV (Russian Airborne Forces) themed t-shirts for sale and asking for suggestions on other VDV merchandise.ASTRA is advertising merchandise for sale with slogans related to their work, available for delivery in Russia, Europe, and the US.(Colonelcassad, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Старше Эдды, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Kotsnews, ASTRA)
Internal Security: Discussion among military bloggers on the importance of radio-electronic intelligence. (Старше Эдды)
Propaganda: Russian sources are actively disseminating propaganda narratives, including portraying issues within the Ukrainian military and leveraging historical events and political statements. ТАСС reports the opening of a reconstruction of the raising of the Victory Banner over the Reichstag at Moschino Park.Colonelcassad shares a video comparing prices in an ATB store in Ukraine in 2021 and 2025, implying the current situation is a negative consequence of the "Maidan."Alex Parker Returns shares a video claiming "Russian fascism has happened."(Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, Басурин о главном, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, TASS, Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns)
Military Merchandise:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is advertising VDV (Russian Airborne Forces) themed t-shirts for sale and asking for suggestions on other VDV merchandise.‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» shares a report on funds transferred from a collaboration with Staff.ASTRA is advertising merchandise for sale with slogans related to their work, available for delivery in Russia, Europe, and the US.(Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», ASTRA)
Educational Developments in Ukraine:РБК-Україна reports that all educational documents, from school certificates to diplomas, will be available in the "Diia" app in Ukraine.(РБК-Україна)
Alleged Virus Development in Russia:General SVR claims that hawks in the Russian Politburo are developing a new virus to potentially trigger another pandemic, intended as a counterbalance to internal political crises in Russia.(General SVR)
Potential Future Developments:
Intensified Urban Combat and Russian Advances: Expect Russian forces to continue pushing on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka, and potentially attempt to consolidate gains in the Chasiv Yar area and around Grygorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka. The reported fighting within Pokrovsk city limits suggests a potential shift to urban warfare in this area. Russian claims of advances on the Krasnolimanskoye direction and Ukrainian reports of targeting on the Svatove direction indicate continued efforts on the eastern front. The significant claimed Russian advances and consolidation of territory in Sumy Oblast from the Kursk direction, if confirmed, would represent a major new development and a potential shift in the operational landscape, potentially requiring Ukraine to divert substantial resources to counter this threat, although conflicting reports on the full control of Gornal create uncertainty. Continued Russian advances on the Konstantinovka direction, as reported by Z комитет + карта СВО, could further pressure Ukrainian defenses in that area.
Persistent and Evolving Aerial and Naval Threats: Russia will likely continue widespread drone and guided aerial bomb attacks across Ukraine, now including potential for KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Continued Ukrainian unmanned attacks on Crimea and Russian efforts to develop and implement countermeasures are probable. The composition and tactics of Ukrainian BEC formations are a key factor to monitor. The claimed Russian strike on a Ukrainian UAV assembly workshop highlights efforts to disrupt Ukrainian drone capabilities. Russian artillery targeting small Ukrainian landing groups in the Dnipro River estuary indicates a continued effort to deny Ukrainian forces access to the Russian-controlled bank. The reported reconnaissance UAV southwest of Sumy Oblast indicates ongoing Russian intelligence gathering in that area. Continued drone and artillery attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including civilian casualties and damage, highlight the ongoing threat to civilian areas. Russian efforts to neutralize Ukrainian UAV systems in the Krasny Liman direction indicate continued focus on counter-drone operations.
Uncertainty in Diplomatic Landscape: The US withdrawal from mediation efforts creates uncertainty regarding the path to potential peace negotiations. Future discussions will likely be more directly between Russia and Ukraine, with the US awaiting concrete proposals. The statements from US Secretary of State Rubio suggesting a military stalemate could influence future negotiations. Trump's team preparing options for economic pressure suggests a potential alternative approach if diplomatic efforts stall. The statement from Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán highlights potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. The reported decline in press freedom in the US could be a point of discussion in international relations. The alleged development of a new virus in Russia, if true, could have significant global political and social implications.
Increased Focus on Internal Military Issues and Propaganda: Both sides will likely continue to highlight issues within the opposing military forces for propaganda purposes. Russia's investigation into Uzbekistan citizens serving in its armed forces and reports on military discipline issues reflect internal challenges. Russian efforts to control narratives and promote specific interpretations of events will continue, including leveraging historical narratives and events, and promoting military-themed merchandise and media related to their military actions. Ukrainian reports on disruptions to the mobilization plan and alleged misconduct within the Russian military also contribute to this. Russian military bloggers advocating for using the full term "Great Patriotic War" indicates an effort to shape historical narratives. The report of a court sentencing a man for attacking a TCC bus in Ukraine highlights internal resistance to mobilization efforts. Reports of alleged misconduct within the Russian military's 810th brigade raise concerns about personnel behavior. The classification of the AfD party in Germany could have implications for political dynamics within the EU and potentially influence narratives about political extremism.
Continued International Support for Ukraine: Despite the US shift in mediation, Ukraine will likely continue to seek international support and aid, as evidenced by the conversation with the Danish Prime Minister and the reported US discussions on increasing economic pressure on Russia. The US intention to increase military spending suggests continued significant investment in defense capabilities. Ukraine's implementation of the minerals agreement and its potential for air defense systems, despite critical views from some sources, indicates continued efforts to leverage international partnerships for strategic gain. The report on funds transferred to the 47th Mechanized Brigade from a collaboration indicates continued public and private support for Ukrainian military units.
Escalation in Information Warfare: Expect continued and potentially intensified information warfare efforts, with both sides leveraging events on the battlefield, political statements, and historical narratives to shape perceptions. The Russian focus on highlighting alleged Ukrainian sabotage and internal issues, and promoting historical events and military merchandise, indicates active information operations. Ukrainian reporting on internal Russian issues and alleged misconduct also contributes to this. ASTRA's offering of merchandise with protest-related slogans suggests an effort to utilize merchandise as a form of information dissemination and potential dissent. The narrative around the US-Ukraine minerals deal from Alex Parker Returns is an example of alternative interpretations being disseminated. The report from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing the NYT, linking increased danger in Ukraine to cease-fire talks is a strong narrative intended to influence perceptions of diplomatic efforts. The announcement of a new Russian propaganda project ("ЧВК") indicates a continued investment in information operations.
Naval Dynamics in the Black Sea: Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian unmanned naval activity, as seen in the discussion of countermeasures, will continue. Russian artillery targeting Ukrainian landing groups in the Dnipro River estuary indicates a continued focus on preventing Ukrainian crossings.
Focus on Civilian Impact and Humanitarian Concerns: Reports of civilian casualties and damage from shelling, drone, and KAB attacks, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, highlight the ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict. Efforts to address these impacts, such as providing medical assistance, will continue. The return of the historical architectural monument in Odesa Oblast is a positive development amidst the conflict.
Potential Indicators:
Observable changes in the intensity or direction of ground assaults on key fronts, particularly in and around Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Toretsk, and the Sumy border region. Independent verification of claimed Russian advances, especially in Sumy Oblast, including confirmation of the liberation of Vodolagi and Belovody, the breach of the border near Oleshnya, and the full control of Gornal. Reports of Ukrainian forces engaging in counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. Independent verification of Russian advances on the Konstantinovka direction.
Increased or decreased reports of drone and aerial bombardment in specific areas, including confirmation of KAB use in Sumy, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and the operational use of the reconnaissance UAV southwest of Sumy. Reports of successful interceptions or strikes on key targets. Reports on the effectiveness of Russian counter-drone efforts in the Krasny Liman direction.
Observable evidence of new Russian countermeasures against Ukrainian BECs or changes in Ukrainian BEC tactics. Reports of successful Russian artillery engagements against Ukrainian landing groups in the Dnipro River estuary.
Concrete proposals or actions from either Russia or Ukraine regarding peace negotiations in the absence of US mediation. Statements from other international actors regarding potential mediation. Further details on Trump's team's options for economic pressure on Russia. Reactions from other EU members to Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán's statements. Developments regarding the classification of the AfD party in Germany.
Further reports or investigations into military discipline issues or recruitment challenges in Russia and Ukraine. Any actions taken by Uzbekistan against its citizens who signed contracts with the Russian Armed Forces. Any observable impact of the reported investigation and potential sentencing of the Cherkasy city TCC head. Further details on the incident involving alleged misconduct in the Russian 810th brigade.
Changes in the volume or tone of propaganda disseminated by either side, particularly regarding military effectiveness, internal issues, or diplomatic efforts. Increased promotion of historical narratives or military-themed merchandise. Evidence of the reach and impact of ASTRA's merchandise sales as a form of information dissemination or dissent. The content and impact of the new "ЧВК" project.
Announcements or actions by the US regarding increased economic pressure on Russia or changes in military spending priorities.
Statements or actions from other international actors regarding potential mediation efforts or support for either side.
Observable impacts of the claimed Russian air strike with FAB-3000 on the Ukrainian UAV assembly workshop, such as reduced Ukrainian drone activity in the Kherson direction.
Further details emerging from the investigation into the return of the Panskyi Manor to state ownership in Odesa Oblast.
Reports or discussions within Russian military channels regarding the utilization or effectiveness of radio-electronic intelligence.
Further reports or investigations into alleged misconduct within the Russian military.
Any observable changes in the deployment or activity of Ukrainian brigades in Sumy Oblast in response to claimed Russian advances.
Reports or evidence of fighting in or around Basovka in Sumy Oblast.
Further reports on the development and potential deployment of the alleged new virus in Russia.
Observable impact and public reception of the "Diia" app update including educational documents in Ukraine.
Further details and verification of the reported incident involving the attack on the TCC bus in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
Any observable impact of the reported classified status of the AfD party in Germany.
Further reports of civilian casualties and damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and other affected areas, including the long-term impact on infrastructure and the need for humanitarian assistance.
Any observable impact of the mineral resources agreement on the protection of Ukraine's sky with American air defense systems.
Observable signs of potential Russian preparations for a new offensive from Belarus, as outlined by the Israeli military observer.
Any official response or further reporting on the claim of declining press freedom in the US.
