Daily Intelligence Summary - Ukraine

Date: February 7, 2025 (End of Day)

Prepared by: Military Intelligence AI Assistant

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I. Executive Summary

The military situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with intense fighting concentrated along several key axes. Russian forces have made confirmed, significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, with the claimed capture of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk being the most critical development. However, conflicting reports persist, especially regarding the Kursk region, highlighting the intense information warfare accompanying the physical conflict. Widespread and escalating drone warfare continues to be a defining feature, with both sides deploying UAVs for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the US and its allies, introduce significant uncertainty about the future of international support for Ukraine.

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II. Key Developments & Assessments

A. Donetsk Region: Critical Russian Advances

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Highest Priority): The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially declared the capture of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). Multiple pro-Russian sources corroborate this claim, citing specific units involved. However, Ukrainian sources, including the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic group and "DeepState," strongly contest the claim of complete capture, reporting ongoing fighting within the city, particularly on the outskirts and near Druzhba. "Rybar" offers a more nuanced perspective, suggesting that while Russian forces have taken most residential areas, Ukrainian positions likely remain. The situation is a major information warfare battle, and independent verification of the precise areas of control is paramount. This is the single most important tactical development of the day. The capture, if complete, opens a path towards Konstantinovka.
• Krasnolimansk Direction (High Priority): Russian forces are actively pushing, with confirmed advances near Terny and Yampolovka, and reports that they've pushed the enemy back.
• Kupyansk: Russian forces are making preparations for a battle for Kupyansk.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Intense fighting continues, with confirmed Russian advances, including the capture of the center of Uspenivka. Ukrainian reserves are reportedly being deployed, and the area remains heavily contested. Reports of a destroyed Leopard tank near Pokrovsk are a concern.
• Other Areas: Positional battles and reported Russian advances continue in various locations, including near Chasiv Yar, Dachne, and areas west of Kurakhovo.

B. Kursk Region: Highly Contested and Uncertain

• Conflicting Reports: The situation remains the most contested and uncertain area of operations. Russian sources claim significant Ukrainian losses and a repelled counteroffensive, while Ukrainian and independent sources report ongoing fighting, Ukrainian presence, and even breakthroughs. "Rybar" suggests a lack of Russian preparedness at the start of the Ukrainian offensive, adding to the complexity.
• Continued Fighting: Reports from both sides confirm ongoing fighting, particularly near Ulanok, Fanaseevka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Ukrainian forces are confirmed to be operating in the area, with evidence of destroyed vehicles and ongoing drone strikes.
• Strategic Significance: The Ukrainian side has emphasized the importance of the "Kursk Operation" in negotiations, suggesting a deliberate strategy to pressure Russia.

C. Kharkiv Region: Intensified Air and Drone Activity

• Continued Air Threat: Reports of Russian tactical aviation activity, guided bomb launches, and ballistic missile threats persist, posing a significant risk to frontline areas.
• Chuhuiv Factory Strike: The confirmed fire at the "Sebek" factory, allegedly used for military purposes, is a major development, indicating successful Russian targeting of potentially critical infrastructure.
• Kupyansk Direction: Continued shelling and reports of Russian advances near Topoli.

D. Sumy Region: Emerging Threat

• Drone and Air Attacks: Reports of drone threats and guided bomb launches indicate an emerging threat to the Sumy region, requiring heightened alert and air defense readiness.

E. Zaporizhzhia Region: Intensified Strikes

• Widespread Attacks: A significant escalation of Russian activity, with 339 strikes reported across 14 settlements, using a combination of airstrikes, UAV attacks, MLRS, and artillery.
• Melitopol Substation Attack: Confirmed attack causing power outages, highlighting Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure.
• Reported Ukrainian Success: Claims of a Ukrainian air defense unit shooting down a guided bomb for the first time.

F. Drone Warfare: Dominant and Escalating

• Widespread and Intensifying: Drone activity continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with reports of drone strikes, reconnaissance missions, and counter-drone operations across multiple regions by both sides.
• New Technologies: Reports of fiber-optic guided FPV drones and potential booby-trapped drones highlight the evolving technological arms race.
• Ukrainian Counter-KAB Efforts: Ukrainian forces are reportedly developing tactics to intercept Russian KAB guided bombs, potentially using ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns.
• Iranian Drone Carrier: Multiple sources report Iran has commissioned a new drone carrier, the "Shahid Bahman Bagheri," converted from a container ship. It is reportedly capable of carrying 60 drones and 30 missile launchers.

G. Geopolitical Developments: Uncertainty and Potential Shifts

• US Aid Uncertainty: The confirmation that no new US aid packages will be announced at the upcoming Ramstein meeting is a major concern.
• Baltic States Energy Independence: The confirmed disconnection of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from the Russian energy grid on February 8th is a major geopolitical shift, reducing Russian leverage.
• Trump to Intensify Sanctions: Trump is reported to be planning intensified sanctions.
• Potential US Policy Shifts: Trump's call to shut down USAID, if implemented, would have significant ramifications for US foreign policy.
• EU-Ukraine Relations: Concerns remain about Hungary and Slovakia blocking Ukraine's EU path.
• Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions: Rising tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan are a cause for concern, with potential regional implications.
• Russia-Syria Relations: Ongoing negotiations regarding Russian military bases in Syria.
• Trump to sign decree on ICC sanctions. Reports have been confirmed.

H. Internal Russian Issues: Potential Vulnerabilities

• FSB Arrests: Confirmed arrests of individuals allegedly linked to Ukrainian intelligence, highlighting internal security concerns.
• Reported Corruption and Mismanagement: Reports of embezzled funds intended for fortifications in the Kursk region, along with complaints about lack of recognition for certain units ("Akhmat"), suggest potential internal weaknesses.
• "Belaruski Hayun" Project Suspension: The suspension of this project, which monitored military activity in Belarus, due to a security breach, is a major blow to open-source intelligence gathering.

I. Internal Ukrainian Issues: Morale and Mobilization

• Deaths During Military Medical Exams: Recurring reports of deaths during military medical examinations raise serious concerns about the mobilization process and the treatment of conscripts.
• Forced Mobilization: Reports of mobilized soldiers being forced to leave the hospital and go to war underscore the pressure on Ukrainian manpower.
• Economic Concerns: A Ukrainian survey indicates growing public concern about rising prices and economic crisis.
• TCC Abuses: Reports of forceful mobilization tactics by Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) persist, creating internal dissent and undermining public trust.

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III. Critical Information Gaps

• Precise Control of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: Despite Russian claims of complete capture, the exact areas of control within and around the city remain unclear. This is the most urgent information gap.
• Extent of Ukrainian Losses in Kursk Region: Russian claims of massive Ukrainian losses are highly suspect and require independent verification.
• Confirmation of "Paper Brigades" Claim (Kursk Region): The claim that some Russian brigades near Sudzha existed only on paper needs verification.
• Confirmation of Booby-Trapped Drones: The report of booby-trapped FPV goggles requires immediate and thorough investigation.
• Confirmation of Russian Advance near Kurilovka: The report of the crossing of the Psel and advance.
• Details of Trump's Peace Plan: While some details have leaked, the full contents and implications of Trump's peace plan remain unclear.
• Verification of Azerbaijani Intelligence Activity in Russia: Claims of Azerbaijani intelligence gathering in Russia require verification.
• Nature of US-Ukraine Discussions: While meetings have been confirmed, the specific content and outcomes of discussions between Ukrainian and US officials remain largely unknown.
• Extent of Russian advance in Kupyansk The extent of the preparation and situation needs to be independently verified.

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IV. Recommendations

1. Prioritize Intelligence Collection (Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk & Kursk): [Highest Priority] Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, signals intelligence, human intelligence) to:
   • Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: Determine the precise areas of control by both sides. Assess Ukrainian troop strength, morale, and defensive capabilities. Confirm or refute Russian claims of complete capture.
   • Kursk Region: Verify conflicting reports of Ukrainian advances and Russian counteroffensives. Assess the scale and objectives of Ukrainian operations in the area. Investigate claims of "paper brigades" and Russian command failures.
2. Enhance Air Defense Capabilities (Multiple Regions): Given the continued and widespread threat of Russian air activity (including drones, guided bombs, and potential ballistic missiles), prioritize:
   • Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Regions: Maintain high air defense readiness.
   • Development of Counter-KAB Tactics: Accelerate efforts to develop and deploy effective countermeasures against Russian guided bombs.
   • Counter-Drone Measures: Invest in and deploy additional counter-drone systems and technologies.
3. Address Internal Ukrainian Issues (Urgent):
   • Military Medical Examinations: Immediately investigate and address the recurring issue of deaths during military medical exams. Implement transparent procedures and ensure the health and safety of conscripts.
   • TCC Abuses: Publicly acknowledge and condemn forceful mobilization tactics. Hold perpetrators accountable and implement humane recruitment procedures.
   • Public Communication: Address public concerns about economic hardship and maintain open communication about the military situation.
4. Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities:
   • Internal Russian Issues: Monitor and, where possible, exploit internal Russian challenges, such as corruption, dissent, and potential morale problems.
   • Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda effectively, highlighting Ukrainian successes and exposing Russian weaknesses.
5. Diversify International Support: Given the uncertainty surrounding future US aid, accelerate efforts to:
   • Strengthen ties with European partners.
   • Explore alternative sources of military and financial assistance.
   • Develop domestic military production capabilities.
6. Prepare for Potential Shifts in US Policy: Develop contingency plans for scenarios involving reduced or conditional US support.
7. Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Closely track developments related to:
   • Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: Assess the potential for escalation and regional instability.
   • Russia-Belarus Security Agreement: Analyze the implications of the lowered nuclear threshold.
   • Trump's Peace Plan: Prepare for the unveiling of the plan and assess its potential impact on Ukraine's interests.
8. Maintain Operational Security: Given the reports of Russian espionage and sabotage attempts, maintain strict operational security protocols.
9. Address the confirmed hack of the "Belaruski Hayun" project: This is extremely important as the project was critical for monitoring Russian military operations.
10. Exploit Tactical Successes: Exploit any advantages.
11. Assess Russian Reserve Interdiction Efforts: Analyze any reports.
12. Prepare Counteroffensive Strategies: Evaluate and analyze all battle areas.

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End of Report