Daily Military Intelligence Summary: December 14, 2024

Executive Summary

Today's reports indicate an intensification of hostilities across multiple fronts in Ukraine, with Russian forces making significant advances, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions. The widespread use of drone warfare continues to be a defining characteristic of the conflict, with both sides employing various types of drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Missile strikes remain a constant threat, targeting critical infrastructure and causing civilian casualties. The humanitarian situation is worsening, and there are growing concerns about troop morale and potential atrocities. On the international stage, diplomatic efforts and political maneuvering continue, with implications for the future course of the conflict.

Key Events and Trends

1. Russian Advances

• Pokrovsk and Kurakhove: Russian forces have made substantial gains in these areas, capturing several key locations and pushing closer to major cities. Ukrainian defenses are under immense pressure, with reports of encirclement threats and heavy losses.
• Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are advancing towards Storozheve and Neskuchne, establishing a new "pocket."
• Toretsk and Chasov Yar: Russian troops are consolidating positions and making advances near Toretsk and Chasov Yar.
• Kursk and Sumy Regions: Russian forces have reportedly liberated several villages in the Kursk region and are advancing in Sumy Oblast.

2. Drone Warfare Dominance

• Extensive Drone Operations: Both sides are employing drones on a massive scale, with a particular emphasis on FPV (First-Person View) drones.
• Ukrainian Drone Strikes: Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a Russian electronic warfare station, damaged a command post, and continue to target Russian tanks and troops using FPV drones.
• Russian Drone Innovations: Reports suggest Russia is using new drone technologies, including fiber-optic guided drones.
• Drone Depletion: Russia used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
• Counter-Drone Measures: Both sides are struggling to counter the increasing drone threat, highlighting the need for advanced counter-drone technologies.
• Drone Attacks in Russia: Several Ukrainian drones have targeted locations within Russia, including the Novoshahtinsk oil refinery and an oil depot in Orel.

3. Missile Attacks and Air Strikes

• Massive Russian Missile Attack: Ukraine reports a major Russian missile attack involving 93 missiles and 200 drones. Russia claims this was in retaliation for Ukrainian ATACMS missile strikes.
• Targeted Infrastructure: Russian missiles are targeting critical infrastructure, including energy facilities, transportation networks, and fuel depots.
• Kinzhal and Kalibr Missiles: Reports indicate the use of Kinzhal and Kalibr missiles in the attacks.
• Guided Air Bomb Attacks: Russian forces are employing guided air bombs, particularly in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
• Air Defense Successes: Ukrainian air defense forces have shot down numerous Russian missiles and drones, including some with F-16s and "Stinger" MANPADS.

4. Humanitarian Situation and Allegations

• Civilian Casualties: The conflict continues to result in civilian casualties, with reports of deaths and injuries in various regions.
• Infrastructure Damage: Attacks on energy infrastructure and other key facilities are causing widespread damage and disruptions.
• Allegations of Atrocities: Reports allege Ukrainian forces committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
• Refugee Crisis: The ongoing fighting is likely exacerbating the refugee crisis, with large numbers of people being displaced.

5. International Involvement and Geopolitical Developments

• US Aid and Support: The US continues to provide military and economic aid to Ukraine, with a new $800 million aid package in the works.
• NATO and EU Support: NATO and EU countries are providing support to Ukraine, including training and equipment. A Berlin Declaration affirmed support for Ukraine joining both the EU and NATO.
• Potential Peacekeeping Missions: There are discussions about potential European peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, with France and Italy expressing some interest, while Poland has stated it will not send troops.
• Sanctions: The EU is preparing a 15th sanctions package against Russia. The US is considering stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports.
• Syrian Conflict: Reports suggest the Assad regime has collapsed, creating a power vacuum and further instability in the region. Russia is reportedly withdrawing its forces but maintaining naval assets.
• Alleged North Korean Involvement: Unconfirmed reports claim North Korean special forces are participating in operations on the Russian side.
• Israeli Airstrikes: Israel continues to conduct airstrikes in Syria, targeting military installations.

6. Internal Issues and Morale

• Ukrainian Military Challenges: Reports indicate low morale, desertions, and corruption within the Ukrainian military. There are also reports of inadequate training and equipment shortages.
• Wagner Group Issues: Wagner Group members are reportedly being denied veteran documentation and benefits.
• Russian Internal Security: Russian authorities are conducting raids and arrests related to alleged sabotage and disinformation campaigns.

Strategic Implications

• Escalation Risk: The intensification of fighting, the use of advanced weaponry, and the potential involvement of more actors increase the risk of further escalation.
• Negotiation Challenges: The current military situation and the demands of both sides make a negotiated settlement appear increasingly difficult.
• Technological Warfare: The conflict is showcasing the growing importance of drone warfare and the need for advanced counter-drone capabilities.
• Information Warfare: Both sides are engaged in intense information warfare, making it difficult to discern the true state of affairs on the ground.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The humanitarian situation is likely to worsen as the conflict continues, requiring increased international aid and support.

Recommendations

1. Strengthen Ukrainian Defenses: Prioritize reinforcing defenses in key areas, especially Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
2. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Invest in and deploy advanced counter-drone technologies and strategies.
3. Secure Supply Lines: Ensure the security of supply routes to prevent disruptions.
4. Boost Air Defense: Strengthen air defense systems to counter Russian missile and drone attacks.
5. Improve Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements and anticipate actions.
6. Address Internal Issues: Tackle corruption, improve troop morale, and ensure adequate training and equipment for Ukrainian forces.
7. Seek International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure military, economic, and humanitarian aid.
8. Civilian Protection: Implement measures to protect civilians, including evacuations and safe zones.
9. Strategic Communication: Maintain clear and consistent communication with the public and international community.
10. Investigate Atrocities: Thoroughly investigate all allegations of atrocities and war crimes.
11. Monitor Regional Instability: Keep a close watch on the situation in Syria and its potential impact on the wider region.
12. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Develop contingency plans for potential escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons.
13. Diplomatic Efforts: Explore all possible avenues for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
14. Address Humanitarian Needs: Work with international organizations to provide aid and support to affected populations.
15. Sanctions and Economic Pressure: Continue to exert economic pressure on Russia through sanctions and other measures.
16. Information Warfare Countermeasures: Develop and implement effective strategies to counter disinformation and propaganda.
17. Cybersecurity: Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure and information systems.
18. Long-Term Strategy: Develop a long-term strategy for rebuilding and stabilizing Ukraine after the conflict.

Conclusion

The military situation in Ukraine is complex and rapidly evolving. Russian forces are making significant advances, while Ukrainian forces are facing numerous challenges. The extensive use of drone warfare, coupled with ongoing missile attacks and a worsening humanitarian crisis, demands a comprehensive and adaptive response. International support, strategic communication, and effective military strategies will be crucial in determining the outcome of this conflict. The potential for further escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons, cannot be ignored and requires careful consideration and contingency planning. The situation in Syria adds another layer of complexity to the regional and global security environment.