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Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine - December 28, 2024, 16:00 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical as of December 28, 2024. Russian forces continue their offensive operations, with intense fighting reported across multiple fronts. Drone warfare is a dominant factor, with both sides utilizing UAVs extensively. Ukrainian forces are demonstrating resilience, reporting successes in repelling attacks and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment. However, the situation remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making incremental gains in some areas. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, and the geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex.

Key Events and Trends

1. Drone Warfare Escalation

• Extensive Use: Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are heavily relying on drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. The reported 19-fold increase in Ukrainian drone supplies in 2024 highlights the importance of this technology.
• Russian AI Integration: Russia is reportedly integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance their target recognition, even when offline. This poses a significant threat to Ukrainian infrastructure and complicates air defense efforts.
• Ukrainian Innovations: Ukrainian forces are adapting and innovating, using drones equipped with shotguns to down Russian drones and employing FPV drones for precision strikes. The "Vampir" drone's remote mining of Russian logistics routes demonstrates a creative approach to disrupting enemy operations.
• High Drone Activity: Reports indicate an unprecedented concentration of drones, with Ukrainian forces reportedly using around 100 drones per day near Volchansk in the Kharkiv region.
• Drone Strikes Across Multiple Regions: Drone attacks and engagements are reported across Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Voronezh, Belgorod, Rostov, Donetsk, Kursk, and Kharkiv regions, as well as Crimea. The capital city of Kyiv is under threat of new attack.
• Targeting of Critical Infrastructure: Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted the Makeevsky Machine-Building Plant and a Russian command post at the Lgov sugar factory. Reports also suggest Ukrainian forces may be preparing provocations at nuclear facilities.
• ZALA UAVs: Russian forces are utilizing ZALA UAVs to assist in artillery strikes, highlighting their integration into combined arms operations.
• New Drone Models: The introduction of the "Hortenzia" FPV drone with optical fiber management support signals ongoing advancements in drone technology.

2. Ground Operations: Russian Advances and Ukrainian Resistance

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city, with intense fighting ongoing. Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing towards the main defense line near the Dnipro River.
  • Vremivka: Russian forces have cut off the last paved road supplying the Ukrainian garrison in Velyka Novosilka, captured Storozheve, and are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
  • Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing near Dzerzhinsk.
  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control over half of the city, with Ukrainian units regrouping.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka and storming Novooleenovka. Russian DRGs are reportedly operating in Pokrovsk, which is currently without power.
  • Krasnoarmiisk: Heavy fighting is reported, with Russian forces making gains.
  • Lyman Axis: Clashes are reported near multiple settlements, with Russian forces advancing over 300 meters along the railway line to Seversk.
  • Sieversk Axis: Clashes are reported near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka, and Vyyimka.
  • Kramatorsk Axis: Clashes are reported near Vasukivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky.
  • Orikhiv Axis: Clashes are reported near Novoandriyivka.
• Kharkiv Oblast:
  • Russian forces have cleared Lozova and are advancing towards Bohuslavka.
  • Ukrainian forces have reportedly abandoned Zelenyi Hai, turning it into a "gray zone."
  • Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction.
• Kursk Region:
  • Heavy fighting is reported, with Russian forces claiming significant advances and Ukrainian forces repelling multiple attacks.
  • Reports of North Korean troops involvement and heavy casualties.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and ammunition depot.
• Kherson Axis:
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian assaults.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
  • Ukrainian forces are using drones to attack Russian positions.
  • Clashes are reported near Novodanylivka, Lobkove, and Bilohirya.
  • Airstrikes were reported at Temyrivka and Stepnohirsk.
• Lyman Axis:
  • Clashes are reported near Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Zelenyi Hai, Tverdokhlibove, Nadiya, Novoserhiyivka, Terny, Shyykivka, Serhiyivka, Makiyivka, and Ivanivka.
  • Russian forces advanced over 300 meters along the railway line to Seversk, occupying Vyemka station.
• Sieversk Axis:
  • Clashes are reported near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka, and Vyyimka.
• Kherson Axis:
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian assaults.
• Kramatorsk Axis:
  • Clashes are reported near Vasukivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky.
• Orikhiv Axis:
  • Clashes are reported near Novoandriyivka.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky.
  • Russian forces are storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka.
  • High-intensity battles are ongoing near multiple settlements.
  • Russian forces advanced approximately 2 kilometers near Pushkino, reaching its outskirts and liberating Veselyi Gai.
  • Russian forces are actively attacking Krasnoarmiisk.
  • Russian forces are solidifying positions east of highway M-30, pushing towards Novoukrainka, attacking towards Dachnoye and Zelenoye, and advancing near Novotroitskoye and south of Voznesenka.
  • Russian advance on the southern approach to Krasnoarmeisk has extended over 700 meters, reaching the central part of Lysivka.
  • Russian forces liberated the settlement of Novyi Trud.
  • A video from December 25th shows the results of an attack on Ukrainian positions in the Pokrovsk area by the 414th Separate Brigade "Birds of Magyar," including the destruction of a motorcycle with Russian military personnel on it.
  • Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator, "Dolgiy," reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two during this raid in the Pokrovsk direction. "Birds of Magyar" attacked Ukrainian positions in the Pokrovsk area, including the destruction of a motorcycle with Russian military personnel on it. The "Baltic Group" of the 59th Motorized Brigade used drones to target and destroy a Russian BMP, 5 soldiers, a motorcycle, and a pickup truck.
  • Russian artillerymen of the Tsentr Group of Forces reportedly obliterated a Ukrainian stronghold and manpower cluster in the Krasnoarmeysk direction using indirect fire from a range of about 10 kilometers.
  • Russian forces are attacking from the southwest, liberating Novyi Trud and engaging in fighting in Dachenske. They are advancing west on a broad front south of Pokrovsk, making progress near Novooleenovka and Novoyelizavetivka. The Russian advance on the southern approach to Krasnoarmeisk has reached the central part of Lysivka. Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka, entering Pisky, and storming Novooleenovka while advancing towards Slavyanka.
  • Russian forces advanced near Pushkino, liberating Veselyi Gai, and are actively attacking Krasnoarmiisk. They are solidifying positions east of highway M-30, pushing towards Novoukrainka, attacking towards Dachnoye and Zelenoye, and advancing near Novotroitskoye and south of Voznesenka.
  • Video shows a Russian drone striking a Ukrainian tank near Solone, south of Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces struck a power substation west of Kurakhove near Dachne.
  • Another Canadian "Roshel Senator" armored vehicle was reported destroyed in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Russian forces are developing success from the southwest, attacking from the side of Dachenske. Russian forces, having liberated Novopustynka, repelled multiple enemy attempts to retake the village and captured 10 Ukrainian soldiers.

3. Humanitarian Crisis

• Civilian Casualties: Reports of civilian casualties in Horlivka, Nikopol, and the Belgorod region due to drone and artillery strikes.
• Infrastructure Damage: Damage to energy infrastructure, residential buildings, and a central market in Nikopol is reported.
• Forced Evacuations: Russian forces reportedly evacuated civilians from Toretsk.
• Allegations of War Crimes: Video interview alleges Ukrainian forces killed a civilian in Selydove, presented as part of a "tribunal" for crimes of "Ukrainian Neo-Nazis."

4. Geopolitical Landscape

• US Aid: President Biden directed the Pentagon to continue increasing military aid to Ukraine. Another package, reportedly worth $1.25 billion, is expected soon.
• Russia-Iran Strategic Pact: Reports indicate a potential strategic pact between Russia and Iran is in the works.
• Azerbaijan-Russia Tensions: Public conflict over the Baku-Grozny flight is escalating, with Azerbaijan reportedly changing rules for Russian citizens' stays.
• Slovakia's Position: Slovak Prime Minister Fico criticized Ukraine's leadership and threatened to stop electricity supplies.
• NATO's Response: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced an increase in military presence in the Baltic Sea due to "possible sabotage against underwater cables."
• BRICS Expansion: Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan are set to join BRICS as partner countries starting January 1, 2025.
• Turkey-Kurds Conflict: Reports of a potential Turkish offensive against Kurdish forces in Rojava, with the US allegedly not providing guarantees to the Kurds.
• Israel-Yemen Conflict: The Israeli military reportedly used a US-supplied THAAD system to intercept a ballistic missile launched from Yemen.
• Moldova-Russia Tensions: The Russian Foreign Ministry accused NATO of attempting to turn Moldova into a logistics hub for supplying the Ukrainian army.
• Belarus-Russia Relations: Belarus has joined the Russian state procurement system, gaining access to a market worth $250 billion annually.
• China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan Railway Project: These countries are planning to build a railway that bypasses Russia.

5. Other Developments

• Nuclear Provocation Concerns: Reports suggest Kyiv may be preparing provocations at nuclear facilities in Ukraine or at Russian nuclear power plants.
• Sabotage: Ukrainian sabotage groups are reportedly setting fire to post offices in Ukraine.
• Media Control in Russia: Over 135,000 applications for registration have been received from owners of channels and social media pages with an audience exceeding 10,000 users. Roskomnadzor has already registered over 49,000 such pages.
• Economic Situation in Russia: Almost half (47%) of surveyed Russians were able to save money from their salaries in the past year.
• Military Equipment: Reports indicate that equipment from Japan and Germany is being used in the production of the "Oreshnik" missile.
• Aviation Incidents: Several incidents involving aircraft have been reported, including plane crashes and flight suspensions.
• Alleged War Crimes: A video interview with a resident of Selydove alleges that Ukrainian forces killed a civilian woman.
• Education in Russia: Over 79% of applicants to Russian vocational schools and 84% of their parents believe the prestige of such education has increased in recent years.
• Propaganda: A Russian propaganda video depicting the Russian air defense shooting down Santa Claus over the Kremlin is circulating.
• US Domestic Issues: A report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development indicates a record number of homeless people in the country.
• Fundraising: An urgent fundraising campaign is underway to purchase a vehicle for Ukrainian troops.
• Social Media: A social media post claims that the pro-Russian publication "Khuyevaya Barselona" has registered with Roskomnadzor.
• Cultural References: A video and caption commemorate the lowering of the USSR flag and the execution of Nicolae Ceaușescu, drawing a parallel between the end of dictatorships.
• Transportation: An explosion at a railway station in Voskresensk, Moscow Oblast, destroyed Russian freight cars used for military logistics.
• Public Sentiment: A poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) found that 46% of Russians believe that 2024 will be better for them than 2023.
• Military-Industrial Complex: A Russian military expert claims that all production facilities of the Russian military-industrial complex are operating at full capacity, with some operating in three shifts.
• Military Aid: The Netherlands is preparing to transfer the first batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to the Dutch Minister of Defense.
• Cryptocurrency: A Ukrainian cryptocurrency exchange, Kuna, has reportedly lost the ability to conduct transactions in hryvnia through Ukrainian banks.
• Social Media: The head of the "League of Safe Internet" has called for Telegram to be blocked in Russia.
• International Relations: Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed gratitude to the US for sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili.
• Casualties: The bodies of 42 fallen Ukrainian defenders have been repatriated.
• Education: The Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine has sent a letter to educational institutions, ordering the use of official symbols of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) in the design of educational spaces and events.
• Social Media: A social media user expressed anger at having their comment deleted, claiming they were merely presenting facts and not trying to discredit anyone.
• Military Aid: The Netherlands plans to provide an additional 6 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine.
• Strategic Partnerships: Russia and Iran are reportedly planning to sign a new strategic partnership agreement.
• Diplomacy: Georgy Tikhiy, a representative of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, stated that Kyiv has completed preparations for the next "peace summit."
• Military Training: A group of Ukrainian pilots and ground service personnel completed training on French Mirage 2000-5F aircraft, according to RTL.
• Military Presence: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that NATO will increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea due to "possible sabotage against underwater cables."
• Sanctions: Poland plans to increase sanctions pressure on countries seen buying Russian liquefied gas and nuclear technologies.
• Espionage: A Russian tanker, "Eagle S," detained in the Baltic Sea for allegedly damaging the Estlink-2 cable, was reportedly carrying espionage equipment used to track NATO ships and aircraft.
• Energy: Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that the Ukrainian leadership is leading the country to disaster and that Kyiv will pay for this "adventure" with territorial losses and the presence of foreign troops. Slovakia has also expressed its readiness to host peace talks on Ukraine. The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, threatened to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine in response to Ukraine's refusal to transit Russian gas to Europe after 2024. Moldova's gas supply from Russia will cease on January 1, 2025, due to outstanding debts and contract violations, according to Gazprom. This could significantly impact Moldova's energy security and potentially escalate tensions with Russia. However, the right bank of Moldova is reportedly secured with gas supplies until the end of March 2025.
• Military Recruitment: A Ukrainian fighter from the "Wolves of Da Vinci" battalion called for the preparation of Ukrainian teenagers for war, stating that "18-year-olds and 15-year-olds should realize that they will most likely have to fight." He advocated for changes in the education system to prepare them for "tough and brutal" warfare. However, the Office of the President of Ukraine has so far rejected US proposals to lower the mobilization age to 18.
• Missile Stockpiles: According to the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), Russia has approximately 1,400 long-range missiles in its arsenal, including around 350 "Kalibr" cruise missiles, 500 "Oniks" missiles, over 50 "Kinzhal" missiles, over 130 "Iskander" missiles, and over 400 "Kh-101," "Kh-55," and "Kh-35" missiles. The HUR representative, Andrii Yusov, noted that Russia is now paying more attention to planning and reconnaissance and is not operating as indiscriminately as it did in the early stages of the full-scale invasion. He also stated that Russia is capable of producing 120-150 "Iskander," "Kalibr," and "Kh-101" missiles per month.
• Military Aid: The US will reportedly announce a new $1.25 billion military aid package for Ukraine next week, according to the Associated Press. The package will include munitions, Stinger man-portable air defense systems, and rockets for HAWK and NASAMS air defense systems.
• Aviation Incidents: Reports of increased security at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport. Reports that Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights to several Russian cities for safety reasons. Azerbaijan Airlines states that the preliminary cause of the plane crash near Aktau was "physical and technical external impact." The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for a fair investigation into the plane crash in Kazakhstan, suggesting possible damage from a Russian anti-aircraft system. Flydubai has canceled flights from Sochi and Minvod to Dubai from December 28 to January 5, citing security threats. The Minister of Digital Development and Transport of Azerbaijan, Rashad Nabiyev, commented on the plane crash near Aktau, stating that the preliminary cause was "external interference" and that the debris and witness accounts support this theory.

Military Situation Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and fluid. Russian forces continue to maintain operational tempo, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. The capture of several key settlements and the advancement towards strategic locations like Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove demonstrate Russia's continued offensive push. Ukrainian forces, while facing significant challenges, are demonstrating resilience and adapting their tactics, particularly in the use of drones.

The extensive use of drone warfare by both sides is a defining feature of the current phase of the conflict. The integration of AI into Russian drones and the development of new drone models like the "Hortenzia" highlight the technological arms race that is underway. Ukrainian forces are increasingly reliant on drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack, and have achieved notable successes in destroying Russian equipment and personnel.

The reported increase in Russian missile production capacity and the continued use of long-range missiles underscore the ongoing threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The potential for nuclear provocations, as suggested by some reports, adds another layer of risk and complexity to the situation.

The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage mounting. The deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure by Russian forces is particularly concerning, as it exacerbates the suffering of the civilian population.

The geopolitical landscape is also shifting, with potential realignments and growing tensions between various actors. The involvement of North Korean troops, the potential Russia-Iran pact, and the increasing US military presence in the Pacific all have implications for the conflict in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military's ability to withstand the Russian offensive and conduct successful counterattacks will depend heavily on continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced weaponry, drones, and financial aid. The reported increase in drone supplies to Ukrainian forces is a positive development, but the need for more advanced electronic warfare capabilities remains critical.

The situation is highly volatile, and the coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict. The impact on civilians, the extensive use of drone warfare, and the involvement of international actors underscore the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing hostilities.