Military Intelligence Daily Summary - Ukrainian Perspective (February 19, 2025)

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: AI Military Intelligence Assistant Date: February 20, 2025 (00:01 UTC - Covering reports from February 19, 2025, 19:30 UTC to February 20, 2025, 00:00 UTC)

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I. Executive Summary

The period from February 19, 19:30 UTC, to February 20, 00:00 UTC, saw a continuation and intensification of several critical trends, with a slight shift in focus towards the geopolitical and informational domains. The military situation remains extremely dangerous, but the primary immediate developments relate to:

1. US-Ukraine Tensions Escalate: The growing rift between Ukraine and the potential future US administration under Trump reached a new level, with direct criticism from Vice President Vance and reports of the White House stating Trump would not tolerate Zelensky's rhetoric. This creates a highly precarious situation for Ukraine, potentially jeopardizing future US aid and support.
2. Putin's Major Address: Russian President Putin made a significant address, confirming a major Russian offensive along the entire front line, acknowledging military action inside Russia (Kursk Oblast), and signaling a willingness to negotiate, but with clear preconditions and accusations against the West.
3. Intense Drone and Air Attacks Continue: Russia continued its relentless campaign of drone and air attacks, targeting Odesa, Kharkiv, Sumy, and other regions. Guided aerial bombs (KABs) are being used extensively, and cruise missile threats persist. Ukrainian air defenses remain under extreme pressure.
4. Confirmed and Claimed Russian Advances: Reports of Russian advances continued, particularly near Kupyansk, Lyman, and in the Donetsk region. The situation around Kurakhove and Andriivka remains critical. The most significant claim is of Russian forces capturing heights around Chasiv Yar, which, if true, would give them a major strategic advantage.
5. Intensified Information Warfare: The information war escalated further, with coordinated attacks on Zelensky's legitimacy, conflicting claims about the situation in Kursk Oblast, and a confirmed hacking of a Ukrainian internet provider to spread disinformation.
6. Ukrainian Infrastructure under Constant Attack: Russian strikes damaged a variety of Ukrainian infrastructure.

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II. Key Developments and Assessments by Area/Domain

A. Military Operations

1. Donetsk Oblast:
   • Chasiv Yar (Extreme Priority): Russian sources claim to have captured all heights around Chasiv Yar. Urgent verification needed. This would be a major strategic setback for Ukraine.
   • Kurakhove/Andriivka (Extreme Priority): Confirmed Russian advances, with reports of Ukrainian troops potentially trapped in an "Andreevsky pocket." The situation is highly fluid and dangerous.
   • Konstantinovka: Confirmed Russian airstrikes with guided bombs (FAB-250), causing civilian casualties and significant damage to infrastructure.
   • Dzerzhinsk Direction: Russian forces reportedly making advances near Zelene Pole, with a potential threat of encirclement to Ukrainian forces.
   • Other Areas: Reports of continued fighting and Russian advances near Avdiivka, Makeevka, Nevskoye, and Belohorivka.

• Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces back from the highway.
• Ulakly: Russian forces have taken key positions.
• Krasnolimansk Direction: Russian forces are continuing their offensive.

2. Kharkiv Oblast:

   • Kupyansk Direction: Confirmed and reported Russian advances, including claims of clearing a "pocket" between Zapadnoye and Dvorechnaya, expanding control, and advancing north of Novomlynsk. Ukrainian claims of destroying a British AS-90 SPG (requires verification).
   • Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi: Russian drone strike on the residential sector, causing civilian casualties.
   • Zolochiv, Boriv, Monochinivka: Multiple attacks reported.
   • Vovchansk Direction: Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled an assault, destroying two enemy vehicles and damaging a third.
   • Kharkiv: Confirmed drone strikes on civilian infrastructure.

3. Kursk Oblast (Russia):

   • Confirmed Russian Offensive: Putin confirmed Russian military operations inside Kursk Oblast, acknowledging a Ukrainian incursion. Russian sources claim to have repelled the incursion and inflicted heavy losses, though the scale of these claims is likely exaggerated. Video evidence confirms fighting and Russian drone operations.
   • Sverdlikovo: Russian forces claim full control of Sverdlikovo and the Sudzha-Rylsk road, inside Russian territory. This requires urgent clarification. Reports of Russian advances near Lebedevka persist.
   • Claimed Ukrainian Losses: Russian sources claim extremely high Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, which should be treated with extreme skepticism.

4. Sumy Oblast:

   • Continued Air Attacks: Repeated reports of guided aerial bomb attacks and drone threats.
   • Claimed Russian Iskander Strike: Reports of an Iskander-M missile strike targeting a Ukrainian military hospital and equipment parking area in Boromlya. Requires urgent verification.
   • Russian Special Forces: Confirmed actions.

5. Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

   • Continued Shelling and Drone Attacks: Reports of intense shelling and drone activity, including an attack on a private sector in Kamyanske.
   • Claimed Russian Advances: Reported 800-meter advance near Shcherbaky.
   • ZNPP: Continued shelling reported, raising concerns about nuclear safety.

• Huliaipole: Civilian casualties.

6. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

   • Confirmed Russian Attacks: Airstrikes and drone attacks on multiple districts, causing damage and casualties.
   • Rocket Threat: A rocket alert was issued, indicating the continued risk of missile attacks.

7. Odesa Oblast:

   • Intense Drone Attacks: Odesa was subjected to a massive, multi-wave drone attack throughout the day, likely targeting energy infrastructure.
   • Confirmed Damage: Widespread power outages and damage to civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and clinics.
   • Continued Drone Activity: Reports of drones from the Black Sea continued into the evening.

8. Mykolaiv Oblast:

   • Explosion: Confirmed, likely due to a Russian strike.
   • Rocket Threat: A cruise missile was reported heading north of Ochakiv.

9. Kirovohrad Oblast:

• Drone Activity: A drone threat.

10. Poltava Oblast:

• Drone Activity: A drone threat.

B. Drone Warfare

• Dominant and Escalating: Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with both sides using drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Russian Advantages:
  • Fiber-Optic Guided Drones: Reports of these drones persist and are extremely concerning.
  • Large-Scale Attacks: Russia's ability to launch massive, coordinated drone attacks across Ukraine is a major threat.
  • Targeting: Russian drones are targeting various locations, with a shift to energy infrastructure.
  • Production: Russia is investing in drone production.
• Ukrainian Successes:
  • Reconnaissance Drone Shootdowns: Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down a significant number of Russian reconnaissance drones.
  • Targeted Strikes: Ukrainian drone strikes continue to inflict damage on Russian equipment and personnel.
• New Technology: Reports of a new Russian multi-charge anti-drone system and Ukrainian training on advanced V-BAT vertical UAVs indicate a continuing technological arms race.

C. Air and Missile Threats

• Persistent and Widespread: The threat of air and missile attacks remains extremely high across Ukraine.
• Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Extensive use of KABs by Russian forces, particularly in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: Alerts were issued for various regions, indicating the continued potential for ballistic missile attacks.
• Cruise Missile Threat: A cruise missile was reported heading towards Mykolaiv.

D. Geopolitical Developments

1. US-Ukraine Tensions Escalate (Extreme Priority):

   • Vance's Criticism: U.S. Vice President Vance's direct criticism of Zelensky and suggestions that Ukraine's existence depends solely on the US are a major escalation in the rhetorical conflict.
   • Trump's Statements: Trump's repeated attacks on Zelensky, accusations of corruption, and claims of US overspending on Ukraine are amplified by Russian media.
   • White House Response: Reports of the White House saying Trump "won't tolerate" Zelensky's rhetoric further heighten tensions.
   • Ukrainian Response: Ukrainian officials are actively countering the negative narratives and emphasizing national unity.
   • Implications: This escalating tension threatens future US aid to Ukraine and increases pressure on the Zelensky government.

2. Putin-Trump Meeting (High Priority):

   • Preparations Underway: Both Russia and the US have confirmed that preparations are underway for a potential meeting between Putin and Trump. The timeline remains unclear.
   • Implications: This meeting, even if Trump is not currently in office, could have profound consequences for the conflict, potentially leading to a negotiated settlement on terms unfavorable to Ukraine.

3. US-Russia Negotiations (High Priority):

   • Ongoing Talks: The talks in Riyadh are confirmed and considered "positive" by both sides.
   • Agreements: The establishment of formal negotiating teams, the resumption of embassy staffing, and potential cooperation on other issues (Middle East) suggest a degree of progress.
   • Ukrainian Exclusion: The lack of direct Ukrainian involvement in these talks is a major concern.

4. European Division and Support:

   • Troop Deployment: European leaders failed to agree on deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, highlighting divisions within the alliance.
   • Lithuanian Support: Lithuania continues to provide strong military and political support for Ukraine, including a new aid package and a five-point plan.
   • Polish Position: Clarified by the Polish Defense Minister.
   • German Elections: Ukrainian officials acknowledge that major decisions on EU aid may be delayed until after German elections.
   • Hungary: Hungary is blocking EU aid.
   • EU Sanctions: A 16th package of sanctions against Russia was agreed upon.
   • Macron and Starmer to Meet with Trump: Reportedly to discuss peacekeepers.
   • Scholz Scholz has publicly opposed Trump's statements.

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III. Information Warfare

• Intense and Escalating: Both sides continue to engage in intense information warfare, with propaganda, disinformation, and conflicting claims.
• Key Themes:
  • Russian Sources: Emphasize Russian military successes, Ukrainian losses, Zelensky's alleged unpopularity and corruption, Western disunity, and a narrative of Ukrainian aggression (e.g., alleged attacks on civilians in Kursk and Belgorod).
  • Ukrainian Sources: Highlight Ukrainian resistance, Russian losses, Western support, and the need for national unity. They also actively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda.
• Hacked Internet Provider: The confirmed hacking of the Ukrainian internet provider "Lanet" to spread disinformation about Odesa is a serious incident.

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IV. Critical Information Gaps

• Extent of Russian Advances: The precise extent and impact of reported Russian advances in multiple locations (Kursk, Sumy, Kupyansk, Lyman, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) require urgent and continuous verification.
• Details of US-Russia Negotiations: The specific agreements reached in Riyadh, the content of ongoing discussions, and the degree of Ukrainian involvement (or exclusion) remain largely unclear.
• Trump's Plans: The specifics of any peace plan being developed by Trump advisors and the likelihood of Trump meeting with Putin need further investigation.
• Ukrainian Air Defense Capabilities: The exact status of Ukrainian air defense systems, particularly Patriot missiles, and the impact of reported shortages require accurate assessment.
• Zelensky's future: Uncertainty surrounds his role moving forward.
• Claims of Atrocities and War Crimes: All claims, particularly those related to civilian casualties and alleged atrocities, require independent verification.
• Claimed Ukrainian Strikes: Verify claims, particularly in Kursk.

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V. Recommendations (Prioritized)

1. EXTREME PRIORITY: Respond to Confirmed and Claimed Russian Advances (Immediate Action):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence, signals intelligence) to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances across all fronts, with particular focus on:
     • Kursk Oblast (Sverdlikovo, Sudzha, and surrounding areas)
     • Sumy Oblast (border areas)
     • Kupyansk Direction (various locations)
     • Lyman Direction (Yampolivka, Terny, Makeevka, Nevskoye, Belohorivka)
     • Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove/Andriivka, Zelene Pole, Avdiivka)
     • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Shcherbaky, Orikhiv)
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in threatened areas, deploying additional troops, equipment, and fortifications.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensives to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian momentum.
   • Address logistical challenges and ensure adequate supplies reach frontline units.
   • Urgently address the situation near ANDRIIVKA, and ZELENE POLE to prevent encirclement.

2. EXTREME PRIORITY: Maintain Maximum Air Defense Readiness and Counter Drone Attacks (Nationwide, Continuous):

   • Maintain the highest level of alert for all air defense systems across Ukraine, particularly in areas facing immediate threats (Odesa, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Ternopil, Zhytomyr).
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure, population centers, and military assets.
   • Deploy all available resources, including electronic warfare systems, to counter drone attacks.
   • Improve early warning systems and response times for ballistic missile and guided aerial bomb threats.
   • Continue efforts to develop and deploy countermeasures against fiber-optic guided drones.

3. EXTREME PRIORITY: Address US-Ukraine Tensions and Prepare for Potential Shifts in US Policy (Diplomatic Action):

   • Seek immediate clarification from the US administration regarding Vice President Vance's statements and the reported White House position.
   • Initiate high-level diplomatic engagement with the US to reassert the importance of continued support and counter the negative rhetoric.
   • Emphasize Ukraine's commitment to transparency and accountability in the use of US aid.
   • Prepare for potential reductions in US aid and explore alternative sources of support, particularly from European allies.
   • Develop contingency plans for various scenarios, including a potential shift in US policy towards a negotiated settlement on terms unfavorable to Ukraine.

4. EXTREME PRIORITY: Monitor and Prepare for Putin-Trump Meeting (Diplomatic and Intelligence Action):

   • Gather all available intelligence on the potential meeting, including the agenda, timing, and location.
   • Assess the potential implications for the conflict and Ukraine's future.
   • Develop a coordinated strategy with European allies to ensure Ukrainian interests are represented and protected.
   • Prepare for potential pressure to make concessions.

5. EXTREME PRIORITY: Counter Russian Information Warfare (Ongoing):

   • Continue to actively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly claims of Ukrainian atrocities, inflated casualty figures, and narratives undermining Zelensky's legitimacy.
   • Proactively disseminate accurate information about the situation on the ground, Ukrainian military successes, and Russian war crimes.
   • Coordinate messaging with international partners to amplify truthful narratives and counter Russian propaganda.
   • Address the hacking of the Ukrainian internet provider and strengthen cybersecurity measures to prevent future breaches.

6. HIGH PRIORITY: Address Humanitarian Crisis (Ongoing):

   • Provide immediate assistance to civilians affected by Russian attacks, particularly in Kupyansk, Konstantinivka, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
   • Ensure access to essential services (food, water, shelter, medical care, heat).
   • Document all attacks on civilian targets as evidence of war crimes.
   • Prepare for potential mass casualty events.

7. HIGH PRIORITY: Address Internal Ukrainian Issues (Ongoing):

   • Address concerns about forceful mobilization practices and potential tensions within the military.
   • Monitor morale and take steps to improve it where necessary.
   • Investigate and address any reports of abuse or misconduct within Ukrainian forces.

8. HIGH PRIORITY: Monitor and Exploit Russian Weaknesses (Ongoing):

   • Gather intelligence on Russian troop morale, discipline, supply situation, and training deficiencies.
   • Analyze reports of suicides, desertions, and complaints about leadership.
   • Develop strategies to exploit potential vulnerabilities in Russian forces through information operations and targeted military actions.

9. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Continue Diplomatic Engagement with Europe (Ongoing):

   • Capitalize on growing concerns within Europe about reliance on the US and the need for greater European strategic autonomy.
   • Push for increased European military and financial support for Ukraine.
   • Explore the potential for European troop deployments post-conflict.
   • Work with Germany on the "Unity Hub" initiative and other forms of support.
   • Address Hungary's opposition to EU aid.

10. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Monitor Global Arms Developments (Ongoing):

    • Gather intelligence on new weapons systems being developed or deployed, such as the UAE's multi-caliber rocket system and the new Russian anti-tank missile.
    • Assess the potential impact of these developments on the conflict.

11. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Continue to Monitor and Address the Chernobyl Situation (Ongoing):

12. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

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The overall situation in Ukraine is EXTREMELY CRITICAL and RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The CONFIRMED MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE, the INTENSIFIED DRONE AND AIR ATTACKS, the ESCALATING TENSIONS WITH THE US, and the PREPARATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING create a HIGHLY DANGEROUS AND UNCERTAIN environment. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to protect civilians, counter threats, maintain international support, and prepare for potential shifts in the conflict's trajectory. The NEED FOR ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, RAPID VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS, AND EFFECTIVE COORDINATION across military, diplomatic, and informational domains is PARAMOUNT.