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Daily Report: 2025-04-09 15:03:22

(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine

Date: April 9, 2025 As of: 14:59 UTC Reporting Period: April 8, 13:00 UTC - April 9, 14:59 UTC

I. Executive Summary

  • Overall Intensity: Combat intensity remains High to Very High across multiple fronts, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Kursk/Sumy Border Zone, and Novopavlivsk. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 161 combat clashes on April 8.
  • Strategic Assessment: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi assessed Russia has begun an offensive operation targeting Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (clarified as increased activity, not an imminent assault on the cities) as part of a broader strategic offensive. Estimated Russian force grouping in Ukraine: 623,000.
  • Major Events:
    • Massive Russian Shahed Attack (Apr 8-9): 55 Shaheds (+ imitators) launched; 32 intercepted. Significant civilian impact confirmed: Kharkiv (4 WIA), Dnipro (14 WIA), Kramatorsk (3 WIA, incl. child). Extensive damage to residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.
    • Large-Scale Ukrainian UAV Operations (Russia, Apr 8-9): Extensive, coordinated deep strikes (up to 1700km+ range) targeting Mozdok & Orenburg-2 airbases, Penza ammo depot, and other sites across 14+ regions. RU claimed 164 UAVs downed. Localized disruption/damage confirmed (Rostov, Krasnodar).
    • Confirmed UA Strike on RU CP: Successful AFU strike (Apr 7) destroyed 81st Arty Regt CP in occupied Kherson, 20-30 RU KIA claimed.
    • Ground Combat: Fierce fighting continues. Lyman axis remains critical. UA recovered positions near Kotlyne (Pokrovsk). RU claims capture of Dniproenergiya (Novopavlivsk), advances near Kalynove (Toretsk), and cutting the Konstantynopil highway. Fighting ongoing inside Oleshnia/Hornal (Kursk) and Loknya (Sumy).
  • Key Concerns: Critical situation on the Lyman front requires urgent attention. Persistent Russian KAB/drone strikes continue to inflict civilian casualties and damage infrastructure. Russian forces demonstrate tactical adaptation and maintain offensive pressure despite reported high losses and morale issues.

II. Overall Strategic Assessment

  • Russian Objectives & Posture: Russia persists with its strategic offensive, prioritizing the capture of Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts while simultaneously increasing pressure towards Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts, likely aiming to establish a "buffer zone" and stretch Ukrainian defenses (Syrskyi assessment). The estimated force grouping of 623,000 indicates significant manpower commitment. Russian defensive posture along the Belgorod border has been notably strengthened.
  • Ukrainian Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain active defense across the front, repelling numerous attacks daily (161 on Apr 8). Localized counterattacks are occurring (e.g., Kotlyne recovery). A major focus remains on enhancing domestic drone production and leveraging drone capabilities for both tactical strikes and deep strategic operations into Russia. The critical situation on the Lyman axis highlights the intense pressure on specific sectors and the need for reserve allocation. SBU counter-sabotage operations are actively disrupting Russian internal destabilization efforts.
  • Drone Warfare Dominance: Both sides demonstrate heavy reliance on drones. Russia uses Shaheds for strategic saturation attacks and numerous FPV/Kamikaze drones tactically (2180 reported Apr 8). Ukraine employs FPVs effectively against personnel/equipment and conducts large-scale, deep strategic UAV strikes, forcing significant Russian air defense engagement and resource allocation.
  • Casualties & Morale (Indicative): Ukrainian MIA tracking project data (record 10,027 RU MIA requests in March) suggests extremely high Russian losses, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Bakhmut axes and among specific units (74, 15, 30 MRBs; 810 Naval Inf). This, coupled with POW testimonies and reports of poor training/treatment, likely impacts Russian morale and unit cohesion, although offensive capability persists.

III. Major Events (Detailed)

A. Aftermath of Massive Russian Shahed Drone Attack (Apr 8-9)

  • Scale: 55 Shahed-type UAVs + imitator drones launched. 32 Shaheds confirmed intercepted.
  • Impacts:
    • Dnipro: 14 civilians injured (7 hospitalized, 1 serious). Damage to at least 5 multi-story residential buildings (>200 windows broken), 15 private houses, ~20 vehicles, enterprises, admin building.
    • Kharkiv: 4 civilians injured. Approx. 20 Shahed impacts across 4 districts. Extensive damage/fires (>1200 sq m) at civilian enterprises, warehouses, service station (destroyed), private houses (>5 damaged), vehicles (>20 damaged).
    • Kramatorsk: 3 civilians injured (11yo girl, 34yo woman, 55yo woman) after Shahed hit multi-story residential building.
    • Damage also reported in Apostolove (aviation club hit) and Nikopol District (sports facility).
  • Russian Claims: Strikes targeted medical/logistics warehouses, confectionery factory (used for storage), Yuzhnoye enterprise, Dnepropresstal plant (armor repair), Apostolove aviation club (drone/vehicle modification).

B. Large-Scale Ukrainian UAV Operations (Russia, Apr 8-9)

  • Scale: Coordinated attacks across Southern Russia, North Caucasus, Central Russia, Urals. Syrskyi claims max range >1700 km. RU MoD claims 164 UAVs intercepted.
  • Key Targets: Attempted strikes on Mozdok military airbase (N. Ossetia), Orenburg-2 military airfield (Orenburg), Penza ammo arsenal. Claimed attacks on Korenovskaya compressor station (TurkStream feed) and Temryuk gas distribution station (RU claims downed). Industrial area targeted in Nizhny Novgorod.
  • Impacts: Active RU AD response. Confirmed debris damage in Rostov Oblast (Zernograd, Donetsk RU), Krasnodar Krai (4 districts). Evacuation required in Aksay (Rostov) due to unexploded UAV. Flight restrictions at Vladikavkaz, Volgograd, Grozny airports.

C. Confirmed Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post (Occupied Kherson)

  • Target: Command post of RU 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment.
  • Date: April 7, 2025. Location: SE of Oleshky/Nechaeve (46.5725457, 32.752982).
  • Result: Claimed destruction of concrete structure, 20-30 RU personnel killed. Corroborated by UA video.

IV. Air, Missile & Drone Activity Summary (Ongoing Threats & Recent Claims)

  • Current Air Threats (as of 14:59 UTC): Nationwide alert due to MiG-31K takeoff (potential Kinzhal launch). Persistent KAB/KAR threats (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk). Tactical aviation active (NE, E, SE). Recon UAVs active (Sumy, Dnipro, Kharkiv).
  • Russian Strike Volume (Apr 8): High levels reported - 1 missile, 91 air strikes (162 KABs), 2180 kamikaze drones, ~4900 shelling attacks.
  • Key Strike Claims (Past 24h):
    • UA Claims: Destruction of RU Tu-22M3 bomber (Syrskyi - Verify), 2x Pantsir-S1 SAMs, RU CP (Kherson), successful GBU-62 JDAM-ER strike (Soledar).
    • RU Claims: Missile strike on UA Bde concentrations (Kursk, ~50 KIA alleged - Verify), Tornado-S deep strike (Kharkiv), strikes on UA missile/UAV production sites, logistics hubs, repair bases (Dnipro, Apostolove, Kharkiv), UA UAV CP (Pokrovske), AHS Krab SPG (Oleksandro-Shultyne), artillery piece (Sumy).
  • Ukrainian Air Defence: Intercepted 32/55 Shaheds overnight. Active against ongoing threats.
  • Russian Air Defence: Claimed intercepting 333 UA UAVs (158 outside SVO zone) and 6 JDAMs in 24h. Active engagement reported across southern Russia.

V. Key Frontline Developments (UGS 13:00 UTC & Other Sources)

  • Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border: High Intensity.
    • UA Ops: 25 RU attacks repelled (Apr 8). UA Air Assault ambush confirmed (Kursk). UA 225th Assault Regiment tanks confirmed breaching "Dragon's Teeth" near Demidovka (Belgorod).
    • RU Ops/Claims: Control Huyevo (Kursk). Fighting ongoing Oleshnia/Hornal (Kursk), Loknya (Sumy) center towards Yunakivka. Missile strike near Oleshnia claimed. Claims capture/destruction of Marder IFV near Huyevo. Continued dissemination of Guevo atrocity allegations (Verify). RU claim drone strike killed UA engineer near Demidovka.
    • Civilian Impact (Belgorod): 1 civilian KIA, 2 WIA by alleged UA drone (Krasnaya Yaruga).
  • Kharkiv Axis: 1 ongoing RU offensive action near Vovchansk (UGS 13:00 UTC). Persistent KAB/aviation threats. Hostile UAVs engaged. Civilian killed/injured by RU FPV drones (Apr 8).
  • Kupyansk Axis: 1 RU assault near Zahryzove (UGS 13:00 UTC).
  • Lyman Axis (Critical): 10 RU attacks reported, 2 ongoing (UGS 13:00 UTC). Heavy pressure persists near Serhiivka, Nove, Kolodiazi, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka. RU controls Katerynivka. RU claims significant advances (>2km near Torske, into N Torske, towards Nove, near Novoliubivka - Verify). UA 63rd Bde reports difficulty, claims 17 RU KIA via drones. Urgent need for reserves/stabilization identified.
  • Siversk Axis: 4 RU attacks repelled, 1 ongoing near Bilohorivka/Verkhnokamyanske (UGS 13:00 UTC).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): No active RU offensive reported (UGS 13:00 UTC). Fighting continues. Kramatorsk city hit by Shahed.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 12 RU attempts reported since morning, 3 ongoing near Kalynove, Shevchenko, Zelene Pole, Yelyzavetivka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka (UGS 13:00 UTC). UA recovered positions near Kotlyne (DeepState). RU claim repelled UA attack near Tarasivka. Highest RU MIA requests (March) confirm extreme losses.
  • Toretsk Axis: 6 RU attacks near Toretsk/Shcherbynivka repelled (UGS 13:00 UTC). DeepState reports RU advances near Kalynove/Nadiivka. RU claims breakthrough near Kalynove, entering the settlement (Verify).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk: 1 RU attack near Kostiantynopil (UGS 13:00 UTC). RU Claims: Capture of Dniproenergiya, cutting Konstantynopil highway, breakthrough near Otradnoye (1.2km deep/2.2km wide), further advance towards Komar/Otradne (1.2km deep/2.5km wide). Claims ~20 UA KIA near Otradnoye, >35 total axis losses. UA claims decimation of RU 155th Naval Inf platoon (Apr 8).
  • Huliaipole Axis: 5 RU attacks near Novosilka / towards Shevchenko, 2 ongoing (UGS 13:00 UTC). RU rocket strike on Huliaipole city. RU claims clearing woodlines near Mirne.
  • Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv): 4 RU assaults near Stepove/Shcherbaky, 2 ongoing (UGS 13:00 UTC). RU activation reported near Myrne. FPV drone attacks damaged civilian property in Malokaterynivka/Prymorske (Apr 9).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson): No RU ground assaults (UGS 13:00 UTC). Bridgeheads maintained. Confirmed UA strike on RU 81st Arty Regt CP. RU claims UA attempted river crossing near Antonivsky Bridge (prevented).

VI. Naval Situation

  • Black Sea/Azov Sea: No Russian missile carriers detected (Apr 9 morning).
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 Kalibr carriers remain (26 missile potential).

VII. Noteworthy Capabilities & Tactics

  • Russian: Heavy reliance on KABs, Shaheds, FPVs. Claimed missile strikes on concentrations. Claimed Tornado-S deep strikes. Use of fiber-optic FPVs. New BMP-3s with enhanced protection. Reported development of advanced smoke grenades. Tactical innovation lab reported (Belgorod). Need for infantry EW noted (Kursk). General Popov assigned to command Storm-Z unit. Accidental FAB drops continue.
  • Ukrainian: Active AD engagement. Massive deep UAV strikes (range >1700km) targeting airbases/ammo depots/gas infrastructure. Successful Air Force strike on RU CP. Claimed destruction of Tu-22M3 bomber. Claimed GBU-62 JDAM-ER strike. Heavy bomber drone use (63rd Bde). Sustained ground ops in Kursk Oblast, including breaching fortifications. Recovered positions (Kotlyne). Active use of FPVs (incl. interceptors, attack). Plans to increase fiber-optic FPV production. PSYOP via leaflets/MIA project. Received 40,000 CRV7 rockets. Counter-sabotage ops ongoing. Facing critical situation on Lyman front.

VIII. Civilian Impact

  • Ukraine (from Russian Attacks): Significant casualties (Dnipro 14 WIA, Kharkiv 4 WIA, Kramatorsk 3 WIA) and widespread damage from Shahed/missile attacks. Additional casualties from shelling/FPV/KAB strikes in frontline oblasts (incl. 1 KIA near Vovchansk). Ongoing cleanup/support efforts. Evacuation planning discussed for Synelnykivskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk).
  • Russia/Occupied Areas (from Ukrainian Actions / Conflict Effects / Russian Errors): Civilian KIA (1) / WIA (2) claimed in Belgorod from UA drone strike. Debris damage in Rostov. Evacuation in Aksay (Rostov) due to unexploded UAV. RU continues to amplify unverified claims of UA atrocities in Guevo (Kursk). Civilian driver injured by accidental RU bomb drop (Belgorod). Reports of damage/injuries in occupied Kherson/Donetsk from alleged UA strikes. 2 children confirmed killed, 4 civilians seriously injured in building collapse (Novopoltavka, occupied Zaporizhzhia - cause unclear).

(End Summary)

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