Daily Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine - February 7, 2025 (Evening Summary)

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command

Prepared by: Military Intelligence AI Assistant

Date: February 7, 2025 (Evening Summary)

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I. Executive Summary

The situation on February 7, 2025, remains highly volatile and dynamic, characterized by intense fighting, widespread drone warfare, escalating information operations, and significant geopolitical developments. The situation is deteriorating for Ukraine, with several concerning developments requiring immediate attention.

Key Developments & Assessments:

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast): [Critical, Contested] The primary focus is the battle for Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk. Russian forces claim complete capture, while Ukrainian sources deny this, reporting ongoing fighting. Independent verification is the highest priority. The loss of this city would be a major strategic setback for Ukraine. The discrepancy between official claims is a prime example of ongoing information warfare.
• Kursk Region (Russia): [High Priority, Ongoing Incursion] Confirmed Ukrainian operations inside Russian territory continue, particularly near Ulanok, Fanaseevka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. A civilian casualty from an explosive device highlights the dangers in the border area. Conflicting reports persist, but Ukrainian activity is undeniable. There are claims, requiring verification, of North Korean troop involvement and significant casualties.
• Drone Warfare (Widespread, Escalating): Drone warfare remains the dominant feature of the conflict. Both sides are employing UAVs extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. A new and extremely serious threat has emerged: confirmed reports of IEDs (improvised explosive devices) concealed within FPV goggles sent as humanitarian aid. This represents a novel and dangerous tactic. Widespread drone activity and air raid alerts were reported across multiple regions.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): [Extremely High Priority, Nuclear Risk] Reports of a significant increase in Ukrainian attacks on the ZNPP, as cited by IAEA Director General Grossi, represent a major escalation with potentially catastrophic consequences.
• Konstantinovka Substation Strike (Donetsk Oblast): Reports of a Russian FPV drone strike on the "Mayskaya" 330 kV substation, if confirmed, would significantly disrupt power supply in the area.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Trump's call to shut down USAID, potential US-Russia negotiations ("Yalta 2.0"), and the planned Trump-Zelensky meeting introduce significant uncertainty about future US support and the conflict's trajectory. Russia's expanding power to seize foreign assets escalates the financial war.
• Dirty Bomb: Comments regarding Ukraine's potential use of dirty bombs have surfaced.

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II. Situation by Region/Area of Operations

A. Donetsk Oblast

• Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk: [See Executive Summary] The most critical and contested point. Conflicting claims are escalating, with an intense information warfare battle. Independent verification of control is paramount.
• Konstantinovka: The reported substation strike, if confirmed, disrupts power and impacts military operations.
• Chasov Yar: Russian MoD reports a Grad MLRS strike on Ukrainian strongholds.
• Krasnohorivka: Video evidence of destruction in the city.
• Seversk area: Counter-battery struggles continue.
• South Donetsk: Russian MoD reports its destruction of a Ukrainian stronghold.
• Pokrovsk: Reports of further offensive actions.
• Nikopol and Marhanets: Russian shelling throughout the day.
• Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: Increased attacks from Ukrainian forces.

B. Kursk Region (Russia)

• Ulanok/Fanaseevka: Confirmed Ukrainian activity, with forces operating in border areas. A civilian casualty from an explosive device highlights the dangers to civilians.
• Rylsky District: A civilian was injured by an explosive device, confirming the threat in the border area.

C. Kharkiv Region

• Chuhuiv: Reports of a "powerful fire" at the "Sebek" mineral water plant, allegedly housing Ukrainian military personnel and equipment. This requires verification, as targeting a civilian facility without confirmed military presence is a war crime.
• Sumy Region: The Ukrainian Air Force announced a drone threat.
• Chernihiv Region: The Ukrainian Air Force announced a drone threat in the region.

D. Other Regions

• Krasnodar Krai (Russia): Drone activity reported.
• Murmansk Airport (Russia): Temporary restrictions on operations, later lifted.

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III. Drone Warfare

• Widespread and Intensifying: Drone activity is reported across multiple regions, both inside Ukraine and Russia.
• FPV Goggles as IEDs: [Extremely High Priority, New Threat] Confirmed reports of attempts to use volunteer-donated FPV goggles as IEDs within Russia, targeting both military personnel and volunteers.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations: Reports of Ukrainian drone operations inside Russian territory, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure.
• Counter-Drone Efforts: Reports of both sides employing drones for counter-drone operations.
• NATO Competition: NATO has launched a competition to find solutions against Russian guided aerial bombs.
• British Naval Drones: The UK is developing two new naval drones specifically for Ukraine.
• Fundraising: Continued fundraising campaigns for drones for Ukrainian forces.
• Makeshift Drone: Footage of a makeshift drone constructed from four FPV drones.
• Extensive activity: Drone movements in eastern Chernihiv Oblast, southeastern Chernihiv Oblast, central and southern Sumy Oblast, and northern Poltava Oblast.

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IV. Geopolitical Developments

• Trump and USAID: Trump's call to shut down USAID could have major ramifications for US foreign policy and aid programs.
• Asset Seizure: Russia is broadening powers to seize assets of "unfriendly states."
• Potential Negotiations ("Yalta 2.0"): Discussions about a potential "Yalta 2.0" are surfacing, with Russia emphasizing its desire to dictate terms.
• Trump-Zelensky Meeting: Reports suggest a meeting next week, potentially in Washington.
• US-Russia Relations: Trump claims "good relations" with Putin.
• UK Assessment: British Foreign Secretary doesn't expect an imminent ceasefire.
• Poland: The Prime Minister of Poland requests the plan to deport illegal immigrants.
• Syria: New leadership, and they are proposing to Erdogan the placement of Turkish military bases in the country.
• Lithuanian Military Aid: Lithuania delivered spare parts for APCs and trucks.
• Putin and the Universities: Putin has ordered a cut to University spots for law and economics.
• Diplomatic Standard: Reports of double standards.

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V. Internal Russian Issues

• Alleged Crimes by Soldiers: Reports of crimes by Russian soldiers, including murder by a pardoned prisoner.
• Arrests: An individual was arrested in St. Petersburg for allegedly plotting railroad sabotage.

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VI. Disinformation & Propaganda

• Dirty Bomb: Mentions of a dirty bomb have escalated.
• Belaruski Hayun Project Suspension: A significant issue.

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VII. Recommendations

The following recommendations are prioritized based on the current situation:

1. Verify Status of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite, drone, signals, human) to determine the precise areas of control.
   • Focus on confirming the exact areas of control, especially outskirts, spoil tips, and the Toretska mine.
   • Assess Ukrainian troop strength, morale, and defensive capabilities in the area.
   • Bypass conflicting official claims and obtain ground truth.

2. Investigate and Mitigate IED Threat in FPV Goggles (Extremely High Priority, Immediate Action):

   • Issue immediate warnings to all military personnel and volunteer organizations.
   • Implement thorough inspection procedures for all donated equipment.
   • Investigate the source of the IEDs and disrupt the supply chain.
   • Collaborate with intelligence agencies to identify and neutralize those responsible.
   • Develop and disseminate countermeasures and safety protocols.
   • Alert medical personnel to potential casualties.

3. Address Increased Risk at ZNPP (Extremely High Priority, International Cooperation):

   • Immediately engage with the IAEA and international partners.
   • Demand a cessation of all military activity near the plant.
   • Prepare for potential radiological consequences.

4. Monitor and Respond to Kursk Region Activity (High Priority):

   • Track Ukrainian troop movements and offensive actions.
   • Assess the scale and objectives of the Ukrainian operation.
   • Implement enhanced security measures to protect civilians.
   • Issue public warnings and safety guidelines to residents.

5. Investigate Chuhuiv Fire (High Priority):

   • Confirm or deny Ukrainian military presence at the "Sebek" plant before the fire.
   • Determine the cause of the fire.

6. Confirm Konstantinovka Substation Strike (High Priority):

   • Verify the extent of damage to the "Mayskaya" substation.
   • Assess the impact on power supply.

7. Analyze Potential Impact of USAID Shutdown (Geopolitical, High Priority):

   • Assess the potential consequences on US foreign policy, aid programs, and stability, particularly in Ukraine.
   • Consider alternative channels for aid.

8. Maintain and Escalate All Previous Recommendations: Continue monitoring Russian advances, enhancing counter-drone capabilities, monitoring internal Russian issues, and addressing information warfare.

9. Investigate the Dirty Bomb Comments (Extremely High Priority): Determine the intent, and assess the possible impact.

10. Investigate the attacks (High Priority): Collect evidence and determine the cause.

11. Verify Claims (High Priority): Verify all statements.

12. Secure infrastructure (High Priority): Prioritize securing critical infrastructure.

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End of Report