Moldova has denied reports of preparing a military operation to seize Transnistria, according to the head of the administration, Adrian Balutel. This follows a report from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claiming that President Maia Sandu had announced such a plan.

• The "Ben Shapiro Show: Sunday Special" featured a discussion with a speaker highlighting the need for a negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine. The speaker emphasized the importance of understanding the costs and realistic goals of continued involvement.
• Mike Waltz stated that Trump made it clear that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine must be resolved, and European leaders and Ukraine are all adapting to this. He also drew attention to how over these 3 years the West's approach has changed dramatically: from statements about "readiness to provide assistance in any volumes" to questions "how to reach a peace agreement." At the same time, the outgoing Biden administration could not clearly explain what goals the United States is pursuing and whether they are achievable, and this is an important issue.
• Zelensky called on the Slovak special services to investigate the ties of their Prime Minister Fico with Russia. "Moscow provides significant discounts to Fico, but it is Slovakia that pays for them. Such discounts are not free - Russia is paid for them with sovereignty or shadow schemes. This should be of interest to the Slovak law enforcement agencies and special services," the Ukrainian drug addict said, commenting on Robert Fico's visit to Moscow. He cites the statement of European leaders that Fico does not want to participate in the EU's work on energy independence or look for a replacement for Russian gas, "but rather the opposite - he wants to help Russia displace US gas and the energy resources of other partners from Europe, which means that he wants to help Putin make money to finance the war and weaken Europe."
• Zelensky reacted to the meeting between Fico and Putin in Moscow. The President of Ukraine drew attention to the fact that the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, and the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, after a meeting in Moscow, did not make joint statements and did not answer questions from the media, because "they cannot say anything publicly about what they discussed at the meeting. They are afraid of the public's reaction."
• Substantive telephone conversation with the Prime Minister of Great Britain, Keir Starmer. Thank you for the large-scale defense, political and economic support of our state from Great Britain. Today we discussed the continuation of our cooperation. Among the main topics are support for Ukrainian arms production, training of Ukrainian soldiers, sanctions against Russia's shadow tanker fleet, and the JEF summit in Estonia. Our state is interested in expanding cooperation with JEF and full membership in the organization. They also talked about the agreement on a 100-year partnership between our states, the work on the preparation of which continues.
• There are reports that the Ukrainian military command is dissatisfied with the Deep State project, which provides independent reporting on the situation on the front lines. There are plans to mobilize the Deep State team into the infantry, discredit the project, and ultimately shut it down. This suggests internal conflict within Ukraine regarding information control and the portrayal of the war.
• There are reports that Switzerland no longer plans to hold peace conferences on Ukraine, as Russia no longer considers it a neutral country.
• Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva stated that Ukraine's application to join NATO will remain valid until the Alliance decides to accept it.
• Lithuania, previously without tanks, has contracted with KNDS for 44 Leopard 2A8 tanks for 950 million euros, becoming the 23rd country to operate this platform. The deal includes spare parts and logistical support, enabling Lithuania to form its first tank brigade. Despite economic difficulties, Lithuania allocated over 2 billion euros for military needs in its 2024 budget.
• Vice Premier Savelyev conveyed Putin's invitation to the Iranian President to visit Russia in early 2025.
• The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reports that Moldova is preparing to seize Transnistria. Moldovan President Maia Sandu allegedly refused to negotiate with Kyiv on energy resources after the expiration of
• Switzerland joined the 15th package of EU sanctions against Russia.
• Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine.
• Slovakian Prime Minister Fico claims that Zelensky offered him 500 million euros from Russian assets in exchange for Slovakia's consent to Ukraine's NATO membership.
• Head of the Czech Foreign Ministry on Fico's visit to Putin: crawling in front of a mass murderer.
• President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, responded to Donald Trump's threat to return the country's main asset under US control: "Every meter of the Panama Canal belongs to Panama, and it will remain so. The sovereignty and independence of our country cannot be subject to discussion."
• NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, in an interview with Tagesspiegel unexpectedly revealed a can of spiders-associates: "I often told Zelensky that he should stop criticizing Olaf Scholz because I consider it unfair."
• President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, whose powers expire on December 29, demanded that the ruling party "Georgian Dream" set a date for new parliamentary elections within a week.
• In Nezalezhna, judging by the local publics, they returned to the idea of 2019 - to reform the "Ukrainian spelling". And, in particular, completely abandon the use of the letter "f" in words of Greek origin, replacing it with "t".
• The Kremlin has reportedly received several proposals from countries willing to host talks between Putin and Trump, according to Ushakov, an aide to the Russian president.
• Poland signed a contract for the production of 96 Krab self-propelled howitzers.
• Reports of a recorded conversation between Russian soldiers discussing orders to "clean up" local residents and fire on civilian vehicles in Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces liquidated a unit of Colombian mercenaries near the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR).
• Video discussion on the future of Georgia, its sovereignty, traditional values, and the failed Western attempt to organize a coup in the country. Experts discuss the unacceptability of the EU's condition for Georgia to sharply worsen relations with Russia, up to military actions, to join the EU. They also discuss the role of Salome Zurabishvili as a state criminal trying to keep Georgia in the zone of Western influence through illegitimate actions.
• A US district judge in Florida agreed to postpone the trial of Ryan Root, who is accused in the second assassination attempt on Donald Trump, until September 8, 2025.
• A captured Ukrainian soldier, Grigoriy Shinkarev, reported that his unit received orders to shoot civilians in the Kursk region based on the language they spoke. He also stated that his fellow soldiers executed Russian prisoners of war.

Military Aid

• Germany has provided Ukraine with a substantial military aid package, including:
  • 2 Patriot air defense system launchers.
  • 15 Leopard 1 A5 tanks with spare parts (joint project with Denmark).
  • 2 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks with spare parts and ammunition.
  • 30 MRAP armored vehicles with mine protection.
  • IRIS-T SLM and IRIS-T SLS air defense systems with missiles.
  • 30 Vector reconnaissance drones.
  • 24 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones.
  • 14 Hornet XR reconnaissance drones.
  • Various ammunition, including artillery shells, small arms ammunition, mortar rounds, and anti-tank mines.
  • Trucks and other logistical support vehicles.
• The "Two Majors" Telegram channel reported that five thermal imaging sights were delivered to the Belgorod border area, funded by donations from their readers. This equipment is intended to protect military personnel and civilians from drone attacks during nighttime.
• Germany and Denmark transferred 15 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
• Germany sent another IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine.

Economic and Logistical Impacts

• IMF provides $1.1 billion in financial support to Ukraine.
• Disruption of gas transit through Ukraine and potential targeting of industrial facilities.
• The head of the Development Corporation of the Kursk region was detained for embezzling over 173 million rubles during the construction of fortifications.
• A gas pipe was damaged in Rylsk, disrupting gas supplies to several houses.
• Heat supply has been disrupted in 88 houses due to the shelling.
• 17 objects of cultural heritage in Rylsk were damaged as a result of the shelling.
• 14 residents of Rylsk are being treated in the Kursk Regional Clinical Hospital, with minor injuries.
• Putin emphasized the need for a smooth transition to new national projects starting January 1st without delays.
• Putin instructed to fine-tune preferential credit programs in Russia.
• The safe daily consumption of caviar is reported to be 4 teaspoons or 20-25 grams, due to its high salt content. Doctors recommend combining it with light and low-fat foods.
• The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine warned of vehicle accumulation at the "Korchova" and "Medyka" border crossings on the entry to Ukraine from Poland. They recommend choosing less congested crossing points to reduce waiting times.
• The Russian government has banned mining in 10 Russian regions in the North Caucasus, Donbas and Novorossiya. The ban will be in effect until 2031. In a number of districts of the Irkutsk Oblast, Transbaikalia and Buryatia, a ban on mining is introduced during peak energy consumption periods.
• About 80,000 residents in Rostov-on-Don were left without heating due to an accident at a boiler house.
• In the Krasnoyarsk Territory, 7 suspects were detained for staging accidents to receive insurance payments. The damage from their actions amounted to more than 23 million rubles.
• Russia is not closing the border with Estonia and is not subjecting Russians with EU passports to increased scrutiny, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. Border checkpoints on the Russian side of the border with Estonia are operating as usual, the ministry said.
• NATO will use the infrastructure of the Russian Empire in the event of a war with Moscow. The North Atlantic Alliance plans to use the Rail Baltica railway project, originally initiated on the basis of the infrastructure of the Russian Empire, as a means of quickly moving troops and equipment to the Russian borders in the event of a conflict with Russia.
• The EU plans to produce 2 million artillery shells in 2025.
• Islamabad and Moscow are discussing the operation of Mir cards in Pakistan, Pakistani Energy Minister Awais Leghari said in an interview with TASS.
• Slovakian Prime Minister Fico claims Zelensky offered him 500 million euros from Russian assets in exchange for Slovakia's consent to Ukraine's NATO membership.
• Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine.
• An advisor to the head of the office of Zelensky, Sergey Leshchenko, stated that negotiations with Russia are inevitable and that Ukraine should be prepared for them in light of a potential Trump victory in the US elections.

Cybersecurity

• Cyberattack on the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice's registers reported.

Propaganda and Information Warfare

• Ukrainian 46th Air Assault Brigade releases a propaganda video.
• Announcement of Long-Range Aviation Day in Russia.
• Rumors of a planned Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
• A quiz is being held among the paratroopers to identify an object and a settlement in a photo of a memorial to Russian airborne troops.
• Video from the Russian 68th Army Corps' "Kaira" UAV unit reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle using an FPV drone.
• Video from the Ukrainian 95th Brigade reportedly shows drone strikes on Russian forces, using thermal imaging to identify targets.
• "Ural Frontu": drones "Buratino" effectively work in battles for Toretsk.
• A map shows the trajectories of Russian missiles and drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure.
• Video discussion on the future of Georgia, its sovereignty, traditional values, and the failed Western attempt to organize a coup in the country. Experts discuss the unacceptability of the EU's condition for Georgia to sharply worsen relations with Russia, up to military actions, to join the EU. They also discuss the role of Salome Zurabishvili as a state criminal trying to keep Georgia in the zone of Western influence through illegitimate actions.
• Deputies proposed to fine bloggers for refusing to register in the Roskomnadzor registry. The State Assembly of Bashkortostan proposed introducing fines for bloggers with an audience of more than 10 thousand subscribers who do not register their social networks in a special register of Roskomnadzor. The Russian government is considering fines for bloggers who do not register with Roskomnadzor, the state media regulator. This is seen as a move to further control online information and suppress dissent.
• The Telegram channel "ЗаТелеком" (IT expert Mikhail Klimarev) reported that YouTube is de facto blocked in Russia, with traffic currently at 20% of normal levels.
• A medical orderly from Sakhalin was featured in a photo by Colonelcassad.
• The "Ben Shapiro Show: Sunday Special" featured a discussion with a speaker highlighting the need for a negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine. The speaker emphasized the importance of understanding the costs and realistic goals of continued involvement.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over 30 new participants in unlawful military-biological activities in Africa have been identified.
• Testing of unapproved drugs by Americans in Africa has attracted the attention of local media.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US is increasing its military-biological presence in Africa.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the Pentagon has begun active research on dangerous pathogens in Zambia.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US-tested system for biological risks is being used in Africa.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US is expanding its military-biological potential in circumvention of the BTWC.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US sees Africa as a natural reservoir for dangerous pathogens.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that samples of the Ebola virus were illegally taken from Africa to the US.
• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has identified more than 30 new participants involved in illegal US military-biological activities in Africa.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US is actively increasing its military-biological presence in Africa.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the activities are being carried out by research organizations of the US Department of Defense. Branches of the US Navy Medical Center are located in Ghana and Djibouti, where active work is being carried out in natural disease foci, isolation and sequencing of pathogens. The US Army Medical Center in Kenya has a network of field stations.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that in Nigeria in 2024, a joint medical research center and a military-medical laboratory of the armed forces of the republic were created, in which 10 US Department of Defense specialists are permanently included.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that in Senegal, the construction of a new laboratory complex worth $35 million is being completed. The project involves the same Pentagon contractors as in the former Soviet republics - Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the customers of the work in the interests of the military are the US Department of Defense Threat Reduction Office (DTRA), the National Security Agency and the State Department. The US does not disclose the final goals of the experiments to partners.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the US, under the guise of monitoring infections and helping developing countries, is building up its military-biological potential.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Americans are particularly concerned about Russia and China's work with the states of the continent to expose the true content of US military-biological programs in connection with the possible restriction of Pentagon activities in this area.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that there is a clear trend: pathogens that fall into the Pentagon's area of interest subsequently become pandemic, and American pharmaceutical companies become the beneficiaries.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that examples are infections such as yellow fever, monkeypox and Rift Valley fever, an outbreak of which was recorded in Cairo at the site of a US Navy military biological laboratory.

Humanitarian Efforts

• Continued need for humanitarian aid and support for affected populations.
• Russian forces reportedly evacuated civilians from Razdolnoye near Velyka Novosilka under heavy enemy fire.
• Russian forces reportedly evacuated civilians from the Kursk region under fire.

Allegations of War Crimes

• Reports of Ukrainian POWs being shot by the 110th Brigade.
• Video evidence of the execution of four surrendering Ukrainian soldiers.
• A captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to killing civilians in the Kursk region. Another Ukrainian soldier reported orders to shoot civilians if necessary.
• Alleged Atrocities by Mercenaries: A Brazilian mercenary admitted to killing two Russian soldiers, a father and son, during combat in the Kursk region.
• On the Donetsk front, there are reports of four Ukrainian soldiers being executed by Russian forces after surrendering. This incident is under investigation as a potential war crime.

Naval Activity

• The Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major" sank off the coast of Spain after an explosion. The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed the sinking and stated that 14 crew members were rescued, and two are missing. New video footage shows the "Ursa Major" sinking, confirming the earlier reports. The video was taken from another vessel that was involved in the rescue operation.
• The Russian Navy is not recorded in the Black Sea or the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 8 enemy ships, of which 3 are Kalibr missile carriers.
• Portuguese sailors refused to escort a Russian ship due to the poor condition of their vessel, highlighting potential readiness issues within NATO forces.

Other Incidents

• An explosion occurred at an explosives factory in Balikesir, Turkey, reportedly killing 13 people and injuring 3. The explosion was so strong that tremors were felt in nearby villages.
• A fire broke out in the office of "United Russia" in Arkhangelsk.
• Reports of Russian soldiers being buried at a former landfill in the Stavropol region.
• Explosion at a former factory in Abakan, resulting in two deaths and four injuries.
• A vehicle was reportedly blown up in Berdyansk, with conflicting reports on whether it belonged to a collaborator.
• A former Wagner Group member reportedly killed a woman in St. Petersburg.
• About 80,000 residents in Rostov-on-Don were left without heating due to an accident at a boiler house.
• In the Krasnoyarsk Territory, 7 suspects were detained for staging accidents to receive insurance payments. The damage from their actions amounted to more than 23 million rubles.

Analysis of Key Developments - December 24, 2024, 12:55 UTC

The conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, with significant Russian advances in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The capture of Storozheve and the advance towards Velyka Novosilka, along with the destruction of a bridge over the Mokri Yaly river, represent a substantial shift in the Vremivka direction. The reported encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Makarivka, if confirmed, would be a significant blow to Ukrainian defenses in the area.

Drone warfare remains a defining feature of the conflict, with new drone threats reported in various regions, including Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv. Ukrainian forces are actively using drones to repel attacks and target Russian forces, while also reporting successes in destroying enemy drones. However, the sheer number of drones deployed by Russian forces continues to pose a significant challenge to Ukrainian air defenses.

The humanitarian situation is worsening, with reports of civilian casualties and forced evacuations. Allegations of war crimes, including the shooting of Ukrainian POWs and the targeting of civilians, further escalate the severity of the conflict. The reports of atrocities committed by mercenaries add another layer of complexity to the situation.

Fighting has intensified in the Kremennaya-Terny area, Kharkiv, and the Kursk region, with significant losses reported for Ukrainian forces. The reported involvement of North Korean troops in the Kursk region, although unconfirmed, raises concerns about potential escalation and foreign intervention.

The sinking of the Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major" off the coast of Spain after an explosion adds complexity to the maritime aspect of the conflict, raising questions about the safety of navigation in the region.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict appear to be stalled, with both sides holding firm to their positions. The reported discussions about sending European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement suggest a potential shift in the international community's approach to the conflict.

The new information also highlights the increasing pressure on independent media and bloggers in Russia, as well as ongoing concerns about corruption and mismanagement within the Russian government and military.

The situation remains highly volatile and fluid, with the potential for further escalation. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict. The ongoing fighting, internal challenges, and geopolitical divisions suggest a protracted conflict with no clear end in sight.

Strategic Implications

The current situation suggests a protracted and increasingly brutal conflict. Russian forces are making gains, particularly in the east, and are employing a strategy of attrition. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges but continue to resist.

The intensification of drone warfare and the potential for further escalation, including the use of more destructive weaponry, are major concerns. The humanitarian crisis is deepening, and the impact on civilians is devastating.

The international response remains crucial, but divisions within the EU and potential shifts in US policy create uncertainty about the future of Western support for Ukraine.

Negotiations remain a distant prospect, with both sides holding firm to their positions. The potential involvement of European troops in a peacekeeping role could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict, but it also carries significant risks.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Ukrainian defenses, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
2. Enhance counter-drone capabilities and develop strategies to counter the extensive use of drones by Russian forces.
3. Secure supply lines and ensure the flow of essential resources to Ukrainian forces.
4. Strengthen air defense systems to counter Russian missile and drone attacks.
5. Improve intelligence gathering to monitor Russian troop movements and anticipate actions.
6. Address internal issues within the Ukrainian military, including desertion, morale, and training.
7. Seek increased international support for military, economic, and humanitarian aid.
8. Implement measures to protect civilians, including evacuations and safe zones.
9. Develop effective strategies to counter disinformation and propaganda.
10. Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure from cyberattacks.
11. Investigate and prosecute all alleged war crimes and atrocities.
12. Monitor regional instability and assess potential impacts on the conflict.
13. Prepare for potential escalation and develop contingency plans.
14. Explore all possible avenues for a diplomatic resolution while maintaining a strong military posture.
15. Increase humanitarian assistance to affected populations.
16. Continue to exert economic pressure on Russia through sanctions.
17. Develop a long-term strategy for rebuilding and stabilizing Ukraine.
18. Monitor North Korean involvement and assess potential risks.
19. Investigate reports of poor training and morale within the Russian military.
20. Monitor the situation in Syria and assess its implications.
21. Track Russian naval movements, particularly in the Black Sea and Mediterranean.
22. Address internal security threats within Russia and Ukraine.
23. Prepare for potential peacekeeping missions.
24. Monitor Belarusian military activities.
25. Strengthen international cooperation among allies and partners.
26. Assess the impact of sanctions on Russia and consider adjustments.
27. Monitor the economic impact of the conflict.
28. Prepare for potential refugee flows.
29. Promote diplomatic solutions while supporting Ukraine's defense.
30. Analyze the impact of new technologies on the battlefield.
31. Address the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
32. Assess the implications of the war of attrition strategy.
33. Monitor geopolitical implications and adjust strategies accordingly.
34. Counter psychological warfare tactics employed by both sides.
35. Address the targeting of civilian infrastructure and seek accountability.
36. Monitor and counter Russian naval activity in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, and Mediterranean.
37. Investigate the sinking of the "Ursa Major" and assess its implications for maritime security.
38. Address the issue of corruption within Ukraine and Russia.
39. Monitor and counter Russian disinformation campaigns.
40. Strengthen international coalitions to support Ukraine and deter further Russian aggression.
41. Develop strategies to counter hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and information warfare.
42. Prepare for potential long-term impacts of the conflict on regional and global security.
43. Engage in dialogue with international partners to coordinate responses and develop a unified strategy.
44. Support independent media and civil society organizations in Russia and Ukraine.
45. Investigate and address reports of war crimes and atrocities committed by all parties to the conflict.
46. Develop strategies to counter the influence of mercenary groups and foreign fighters.
47. Assess the impact of the conflict on global energy markets and develop strategies to mitigate potential disruptions.
48. Monitor the situation in Transnistria and assess the potential for escalation in Moldova.
49. Engage with international organizations such as the UN, OSCE, and NATO to address the conflict and its consequences.
50. Develop a comprehensive post-conflict reconstruction plan for Ukraine.
51. Monitor the activities of Russian private military companies (PMCs) and their potential impact on the conflict.
52. Assess the implications of the conflict for European security and NATO's defense posture.
53. Address the issue of unexploded ordnance and landmines in affected areas.
54. Support efforts to document and preserve evidence of war crimes for future accountability.
55. Develop strategies to counter the illicit arms trade in the region.
56. Monitor the activities of extremist groups and their potential involvement in the conflict.
57. Address the psychological impact of the conflict on soldiers and civilians.
58. Promote inter-ethnic and inter-religious dialogue to prevent further polarization.
59. Support efforts to combat human trafficking and other forms of exploitation.
60. Assess the environmental impact of the conflict and develop strategies for remediation.

These recommendations aim to address the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and to guide decision-makers in formulating effective responses. The situation remains highly volatile, and continuous monitoring and analysis are crucial for adapting to the evolving dynamics of the conflict.