(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine

Date: April 14, 2025 As of: 14:57 UTC Reporting Period: April 13, 15:00 UTC – April 14, 14:57 UTC

(Derived from reports up to Apr 14, 14:57 UTC)

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I. Executive Summary

• High Intensity Persists: Combat remains intense, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (highest activity), alongside significant Russian offensive pressure on the Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk Border axes. 158 combat clashes were reported on April 13. As of mid-day Apr 14, 67 clashes were reported.
• Devastating Sumy Strike & Fallout: The April 13 Russian ballistic missile strike (confirmed Iskander-M) on Sumy city center caused catastrophic civilian casualties (35 KIA, 119 WIA). Ukrainian Colonel Yuriy Yula (Dep Cmdr 26th Arty Bde / Cmdr A1476) was confirmed KIA. The targeting controversy continues, with Russia claiming a military meeting was hit, while Ukraine denies this, highlighting the civilian toll. Internal Ukrainian discourse regarding OPSEC is being exploited by Russian information operations.
• Ongoing Russian Strikes: Russia continues heavy reliance on Guided Air Bombs (KABs), launching 213 across Ukraine on Apr 13, with strikes ongoing towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts on Apr 14. Overnight (Apr 13-14), 40/62 Shahed/other UAVs were downed by UA AD; impacts occurred in Odesa (8 WIA, hospital damage), Kharkiv (warehouse fire), and Zaporizhzhia (gas station fire). A RU drone strike hit a passenger train in Chernihiv Oblast (Apr 14, no casualties). An FPV drone killed a civilian in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Apr 14).
• Key Frontline Developments: Russian forces achieved confirmed advances near Yampolivka (Lyman), Valentynivka (Toretsk), Udachne (Pokrovsk), Preobrazhenka (Zaporizhzhia), and reportedly near Chasiv Yar & Kharkiv Oblast (ISW). Significant RU claims persist regarding advances near Bohatyr (South Donetsk) and the near capture of Yampolivka. Ukrainian forces repelled a large-scale RU armored assault near Vilne Pole/Novosilka (Zaporizhzhia), claiming heavy RU losses (14 BMPs, 2 tanks).
• Ukrainian Counter-Strikes & Clandestine Ops: Notable successes include the destruction of a North Korean 170mm Koksan SPG and damage to a Strela-10 SAM in Kursk Oblast via FPV drones. SBU reported detaining alleged Russian agents targeting commanders at the Yavoriv polygon and providing targeting data for a Kharkiv TEC. GUR claimed responsibility for arson at an MVS building in Arkhangelsk, Russia.
• Capabilities & Concerns: Ukraine reiterates the urgent need for Patriot systems. Russian forces reportedly employ chemical weapons (poison gas) via drones (Zaporizhzhia, UA GUR claim). Both sides heavily utilize drones, impacting tactics and logistics. Reports suggest potential UA drone supply issues and RU personnel/morale problems persist alongside high recruitment rates.

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II. Strategic & Operational Overview

• Russian Objectives & Warnings: Russia maintains its strategic objectives of occupying the Donbas and expanding border buffer zones. Offensive operations continue across multiple axes. Russian sources issued a warning of an impending "fire blockade" of Sumy City, urging civilian evacuation, and claimed preparations to "incorporate" Myropillia (Sumy Oblast) into Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian Force Posture: President Zelenskyy stated the current army size is sufficient for containment but not for large-scale de-occupation. Holding defensive lines and degrading RU logistics remain key priorities. Mobilization/martial law extensions are anticipated.
• Russian Chemical Weapons Use (UA Claim): GUR reports systematic Russian use of poison gas dropped from UAVs on the frontline, specifically mentioning Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and likely involving RG-VO grenades. Fatalities among Ukrainian defenders are claimed. Analysis of the chemical agent is ongoing.
• Information Environment: Intense narrative battle surrounding the Sumy strike continues. Russia attempts to justify the attack and exploit internal UA friction. Ukraine highlights the civilian tragedy and RU war crimes. Russian PsyOps include border casualty imagery and online recruitment attempts targeting Ukrainians.
• Regional Stability: Tensions noted between Moldova and Gagauzia. US recon activity near Serbia highlighted by RU sources amid Serbian political developments.

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III. Major Russian Strikes & Civilian Impact (Apr 13-14)

• Sumy City Ballistic Missile Strike (Apr 13):
  • Impact: 35 KIA (incl. 2 children aged 11 & 17), 119 WIA (incl. 15 children). Col. Yuriy Yula confirmed KIA. 38 hospitalized (11 critical). Attack used Iskander-M missiles, likely with cluster munitions, employing a double-tap tactic.
  • Narrative Conflict: Russia claims targeting an OTG "Siversk" command meeting (>60 military KIA claimed, alleged NATO presence). Ukraine vehemently denies military target, emphasizing catastrophic civilian toll. Internal debate on event security exploited by RU InfoOps.
• Sumy City Drone Strike (Apr 14 Morning):
  • Confirmed Shahed drone strike hit a civilian car park, injuring 1 civilian, destroying/damaging 19 vehicles. RU sources previously claimed ammo depot/railway targets.
• Odesa Shahed Attack (Apr 13 Night):
  • 8 civilians wounded (4 hospitalized). Damage to hospital (operating room), residential buildings, STO, warehouse. OGP investigating as war crime. RU claimed targeting Odesa Cable Plant.
• Kharkiv Oblast Strikes (Apr 13-14):
  • Kharkiv City: Shahed drone hit civilian food warehouse (Apr 14 AM, large fire, damage to homes, no casualties). RU claimed strike on repair base. UAV hit near kindergarten (Apr 13, damage, no casualties).
  • Kupyansk: Uragan MLRS strike killed 2 civilians (68M/61F) (Apr 14). Previous KAB strike killed 2 civilian women (Apr 13).
  • Shevchenkove: MLRS strike killed 2 men, 1 woman (Apr 14).
  • Kivsharivka: Shelling wounded 1 civilian man (Apr 13).
• Chernihiv Oblast Strikes (Apr 14): Drone hit passenger train (Semenivka, no casualties). FPV hit industrial facility (Novhorod-Sivershchyna).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast Strikes (Apr 14): FPV drone killed 63M civilian near Novoyakovlivka. First confirmed FPV strike in Zaporizhzhia City (gas station fire). KAB/MLRS strikes on Stepnohirsk caused damage/outage.
• Nikopol District Strikes (Apr 13): Heavy shelling/drone attacks wounded 1 civilian, damaged homes/infrastructure.
• Overall Air Threats: Ongoing KAB launches towards Sumy/Donetsk. Recon UAVs active across multiple oblasts. Tactical aviation threats persist for frontline areas.

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IV. Ukrainian Counter-Strikes & Activity (Apr 13-14)

• Significant Successes:
  • Kursk Oblast: Destruction of North Korean 170mm Koksan SPG; damage to Strela-10 SAM via FPV drones (Apr 14).
  • Zaporizhzhia Axis: Repelled large-scale RU armored assault near Vilne Pole/Novosilka, claiming destruction of 14 BMPs, 2 tanks (31st Mech Bde, Apr 14).
• Counter-Intelligence: SBU detained alleged RU agents targeting commanders at Yavoriv polygon and providing targeting data for Kharkiv TEC defenses.
• Cross-Border Strikes: FPV strikes targeted RU logistics in Belgorod Oblast. Claimed HIMARS strike on RU CP near Huyevo (Kursk) on Apr 11.
• Tactical Strikes: Numerous successful drone/artillery strikes reported by various brigades (44th Arty, 108th TD, 110th Mech, 12th Azov, 71st Jaeger, etc.) targeting RU personnel, equipment, shelters across the front.
• Logistics Degradation: Claimed destruction of 11,583 RU vehicles/spec equip since Jan 1, 2025 (CinC Syrskyi).

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V. Key Frontline Developments (Apr 14 - Updates to 14:57 UTC)

• Kursk Border: Repelled 12 RU attacks (3 ongoing) today. RU assault on Hornal Monastery reportedly began. RU claims fire control over monastery access roads. Increased UA drone activity noted by RU.
• Kharkiv Axis: No new ground attacks reported mid-day. UA units ("Hart", "Khartia", 58th Motorized) active.
• Kupyansk Axis: No new ground attacks reported mid-day. Civilian casualties from MLRS strike.
• Lyman Axis: 13 RU attacks (1 ongoing). DeepState reports continued RU advances near Zherebets River, entering NE Yampolivka. RU claims near control of Yampolivka, flanking UA 63rd Bde. UA 81st Airmobile successful actions near Bilohorivka.
• Siversk Axis: 1 attack repelled, 1 ongoing near Verkhnokam'yans'ke. RU claims occupying forest position SE of Hryhorivka.
• Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): 2 RU attempts (1 ongoing). RU claims fighting within Chasiv Yar.
• Toretsk Axis: 4 clashes completed, 2 ongoing. RU claims significant advances near Valentynivka/Sukha Balka. UA 12th Azov active.
• Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 19 RU attempts (3 ongoing). RU claims Yelyzavetivka capture persists. UA 110th Mech Bde destroyed RU column. UA aerial recon successfully targeted RU assault groups near Udachne. RU complaints about UA drone superiority persist.
• Novopavlivsk / S. Donetsk: 5 RU attempts (1 ongoing). RU claims advances towards Bohatyr/Alekseevka, fighting for Kotlyarivka. UA Spox disputes RU claim on Rozlyv capture.
• Huliaipole Axis: RU airstrikes. No ground attacks reported mid-day.
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 3 RU assaults repelled. UA 31st Mech Bde (+ Pres Bde) repelled major RU assault near Vilne Pole/Novosilka, inflicting heavy armor losses. RU claims slow advances N of Robotyne, near Kamyanske. UA alleges RU chemical weapons use near Shcherbaky.
• Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson): 2 unsuccessful RU attempts repelled.

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VI. Capabilities & Logistics

• Ukraine:
  • Drones: Critical for reconnaissance, strike, and defense (repelling large assaults). Active use by multiple units. Reliance on volunteer support/crowdfunding persists despite increased production. Successful strike on RU SAM highlights counter-EW capability.
  • Air Defence: Urgent need for Patriots reiterated by Zelenskyy. Received 40/62 Shahed intercepts overnight.
  • Personnel: Zelenskyy acknowledges force size limitations for major offensives. KIA of Col. Yula is a significant loss.
  • International Aid: UK financial tranche ($990M loan), Lithuanian €10M for domestic production. Potential German Taurus supply remains under discussion.
• Russia:
  • Air Power: Heavy reliance on KABs continues unabated.
  • Missiles: Confirmed Iskander-M use in high-casualty Sumy strike.
  • Drones: High volume usage persists (Shaheds, FPVs, Lancets, Recon). First confirmed FPV use within Zaporizhzhia city. Claims effectiveness against Western armor despite EW. RU losses acknowledged on Pokrovsk axis.
  • Ground Tactics: Use of motorcycles in large-scale assault (Zaporizhzhia) indicates potential tactical adaptation or desperation, ultimately proving unsuccessful against prepared defenses. Assault on Hornal Monastery suggests focus on key terrain/strongpoints.
  • Logistics/Morale: Complaints about FPV drone disparity (Pokrovsk). Reports of MIA handling issues, veteran committing murder after desertion, POW accounts of poor command/high losses suggest ongoing morale/personnel problems. Crowdfunding appeals persist.

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VII. Outlook & Assessment

• The high operational tempo, particularly on the Eastern Front (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk) and the Kursk Border, is expected to continue as Russia seeks tactical gains before potential larger operations.
• The heavy reliance on KABs poses a significant ongoing threat to Ukrainian forces and civilians, underscoring the critical need for enhanced air defense capabilities.
• The Sumy strike highlights Russia's capability and willingness to inflict mass civilian casualties, potentially using advanced munitions. The subsequent internal Ukrainian debate and Russian exploitation thereof will likely continue.
• Ukraine's effective use of drones remains a key asymmetric advantage, demonstrated in repelling large assaults (Zaporizhzhia) and striking high-value targets (Koksan SPG, Strela-10 SAM). However, reliance on volunteer support suggests potential state supply bottlenecks.
• The alleged systematic use of chemical weapons by Russia requires urgent investigation and international attention.
• Russia's focus on capturing key terrain (e.g., Hornal Monastery, Yampolivka, Chasiv Yar approaches) indicates efforts to secure tactical advantages for potential future advances.

(End Summary)