December 30, 2024 - 19:00 UTC

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Daily Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine

Executive Summary

Today's reports paint a concerning picture of the battlefield situation. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure in Donetsk and Kharkiv, achieving notable advances, particularly near Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and the Vremivka salient. Their continued dominance in drone warfare is evident, with sophisticated tactics and AI integration into Shahed drones posing significant challenges. Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with reports of withdrawals and heavy fighting. However, Ukrainian forces continue to resist, inflicting losses on enemy troops and equipment, and demonstrating innovation in drone deployment and tactics. The ongoing conflict has also spurred a significant humanitarian crisis, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage mounting.

Key Developments

1. Escalated Russian Offensives

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city, having captured the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant. Intense fighting persists, with Russian troops making significant advances. Reports indicate a Ukrainian withdrawal from certain positions.
  • Pokrovsk: Heavy fighting is underway. Russian forces have reportedly severed the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway, and Russian DRGs are operating within the city. Ukrainian reinforcements are being transferred to the area.
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian troops have captured Storozheve and are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka, creating a new "pocket." While Ukrainian forces deny reports of encirclement in Makarivka, the situation remains critical.
  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control over half the city and have seized the railway station, a significant strategic loss for Ukraine.
  • Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces making gains near Dzerzhinsk.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces have liberated Lozovaya. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, but increased drone activity is reported.
• Kursk Region: Intense fighting is reported, with Russian forces pressing on all fronts. Russian airborne troops have taken control of Cherkaska Konopelka. There are unconfirmed reports of North Korean soldiers involved in the fighting. Active combat is ongoing near Sudzha, with Russian forces attacking towards Viktorivka.

2. Drone Warfare: A Defining Factor

• Extensive Drone Deployment: Both sides are heavily utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Russian AI Integration: Confirmed reports indicate Russia is integrating AI into Shahed drones to enhance target recognition capabilities, even offline, posing a significant threat.
• Ukrainian Drone Innovations: Ukrainian forces demonstrate adaptability, employing shotgun-mounted drones and using FPV drones for precision strikes, notably targeting Russian logistics and command posts.
• High-Intensity Drone Activity: Reports indicate a surge in drone activity across multiple regions, particularly in Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Voronezh, Belgorod, Rostov, and Kharkiv.
• Strategic Targets Hit: Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted a hospital in Aleshki (Kherson Oblast), a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade at the Lgov sugar factory, and a fortified military facility in Russia's Orlov region, destroying a "Shahed" drone storage and repair facility.
• New Drone Models: The introduction of the "Hortenzia" FPV drone with optical fiber management support suggests ongoing advancements in drone technology.
• Latvia's Pledge: Latvia has committed to transferring 1,000 drones to Ukraine by the end of 2024 and allocating 20 million euros for drone procurement in 2025.

3. Geopolitical Developments

• US Aid Package: The US announced a final aid package for Ukraine from the Biden administration, totaling $15 billion in credit, secured by frozen Russian assets, with an additional $2.5 billion provided, along with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and rockets. Future aid packages will need to be negotiated with the potential Trump administration.
• Divisions in the EU: Potential divisions within the EU may arise due to Slovakia's stance on the conflict, with the Slovak Minister of Defense suggesting Ukraine might have to cede territory.
• Prisoner Exchange: A significant prisoner exchange occurred, with 189 (211 reported later) Ukrainian POWs and civilians returned home, including defenders of Azovstal, Mariupol, Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Zmiinyi Island, and those fighting on multiple fronts. Russian sources report 150 soldiers were returned. The exchange was facilitated by the United Arab Emirates.
• SpaceX Agreement: SpaceX has entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine, enhancing their secure communication capabilities.
• Diplomatic Efforts: Ukrainian delegation's visit to Damascus to discuss acquiring weapons and potentially Chechen fighters.
• New Russian Artillery: Reports of new Russian self-propelled artillery systems capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers.
• Azerbaijan-Russia Conflict: Public conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia over the Baku-Grozny flight is escalating.

4. Other Key Incidents

• North Korean Involvement: Reports of North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian forces, with significant casualties.
• Alleged Execution of Syrian General: Reports of the execution of Syrian General Talal Makhlouf after surrendering his weapon.
• Propaganda and Disinformation: Both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, with propaganda and disinformation campaigns.
• New Ukrainian Military Ombudsman: President Zelensky appointed Olga Reshetilova as the new military ombudsman, responsible for protecting the rights of servicemen and their families.
• Gas Transportation Tariffs: Tariffs for gas transportation may increase fourfold for domestic consumers in Ukraine due to the cessation of Russian gas transit.
• Court Proceedings in Ukraine: The commander of the 211th Pontoon-Bridge Brigade was arrested, with bail set at 12 million UAH. Reports of alleged abuse of soldiers within the brigade.
• New Legislation in Ukraine: President Zelensky signed a law eliminating Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSECs), to be replaced by expert commissions in hospitals.
• Infrastructure in Poland: Poland plans to build a road to the border with Russia's Kaliningrad region for rapid troop deployment.
• Russia-Japan-South Korea Relations: Reports indicate Russia has developed plans for a potential war with Japan and South Korea, including attacks on 160 targets.
• Recruitment Centers in Ukraine: Over 32,000 Ukrainians applied to recruitment centers in the first year of operation.
• Plane Crash in South Korea: At least 28 people died in a plane crash in South Korea.
• Report on Armenian Border Control: Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan announced that Armenian border guards would take over control of the Armenian-Iranian border from Russian forces.
• Report on Difficulties Faced by Disabled Veteran: A video showed a disabled veteran discussing the difficulties he faced in obtaining social support.
• Announcement of Post-Exchange Procedures: Ukrainian authorities announced that all released POWs would undergo medical examinations, psychological assistance, rehabilitation, and reintegration.
• New Russian Artillery: New Russian self-propelled artillery systems are reportedly being deployed, capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 50 kilometers.
• Azerbaijan-Russia Conflict: Public conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia over the Baku-Grozny flight is escalating. Azerbaijan is reportedly changing rules for Russian citizens' stays, potentially in response to Russian restrictions on foreigners.
• Report on Difficulties Faced by Disabled Veteran: A video showed a disabled veteran discussing the difficulties he faced in obtaining social support.

Assessment

The situation on the ground is highly unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The capture of the railway station in Chasiv Yar, the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant, and advances in Novoolenivka, Kurakhove, and the Vremivka direction represent significant setbacks. The increased fighting in the Kursk region, including reports of North Korean troops, adds another layer of complexity. The continued reliance on drone warfare highlights the evolving nature of the battlefield, with the attack on the hospital in Aleshki marking a significant escalation and a potential war crime. The international support for Ukraine remains strong, but divisions within the EU may be emerging. The information warfare dimension continues to be significant, with both sides actively shaping the narrative. The prisoner exchange is a notable development, demonstrating ongoing negotiations. The involvement of Belarus in hosting the released Russian soldiers could further complicate the situation. The new agreement between SpaceX and Ukraine to provide Starlink satellite communication services represents a significant enhancement to Ukraine's communication capabilities. The execution of a Syrian general is a disturbing development that underscores the brutality and disregard for international norms in the Syrian conflict.

The destruction of a Ukrainian drone command post and a communications repeater by Russian forces highlights their continued efforts to disrupt Ukrainian command and control capabilities. The destruction of a Polish self-propelled gun "Krab" by Russian drone operators demonstrates the ongoing threat posed by Russian drone warfare to Ukrainian artillery assets. The development of a new FPV-drone "Hortenzia" with optical fiber management support indicates ongoing innovation and adaptation in drone technology.

The destruction of a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone by Ukrainian forces demonstrates their ability to counter Russian drone threats. The elimination of a Ukrainian observation post and the continued hunting for Ukrainian forces by Russian drone operators in the Pokrovsk direction highlight the ongoing intensity of drone warfare in that area.

The ambush and engagement of enemy personnel by Russian forces, observed by a drone, highlights the continued use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting in close-quarters combat. The elimination of Ukrainian troops in a forested area by a Russian attack drone unit demonstrates the effectiveness of drones in targeting personnel in concealed positions. The destruction of an enemy T-64BV tank by Ukrainian Special Forces using FPV drones highlights the continued vulnerability of armored vehicles to drone attacks.

The destruction of enemy weapons, shelters, and warehouses by the Third Assault Brigade's FPV drones demonstrates the effectiveness of drones in targeting and destroying enemy infrastructure and supplies. The repelling of a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, with the destruction of 5 armored vehicles, highlights the continued resistance of Ukrainian forces and their ability to inflict significant losses on Russian armored units. The elimination of a stronghold and a mortar position by Ukrainian drone teams demonstrates the effectiveness of drones in targeting and destroying enemy fortifications and artillery positions. The remote mining of Russian logistics routes by a Ukrainian drone "Vampir" highlights the use of drones for disrupting enemy supply lines and hindering their movement.

The destruction of an enemy mortar by Ukrainian Special Forces using an FPV drone demonstrates the precision and effectiveness of drone strikes against enemy artillery positions. The reported destruction of over 10 drones in the suburbs of Voronezh and several districts of the region highlights the continued threat posed by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory. The shooting down of 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by Ukrainian air defenses demonstrates the ongoing efforts to counter Russian drone attacks. The threat of an enemy drone in the Nizhyn area of Chernihiv region highlights the continued vulnerability of Ukrainian cities to drone attacks.

The new report of 211 additional Ukrainian soldiers being returned home is a morale booster for Ukraine. Poland's intent to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU is a positive sign for Ukraine on the diplomatic front. The alleged cyberattack on the US Treasury Department and the situation in Moldova add further layers of complexity to the broader geopolitical context.

The new reports of air defense activity and explosions in Kyiv, along with the threat of ballistic missiles, indicate that the capital remains a target. The continued air activity over Russia, with the launch of strategic bombers and X-22 missiles, suggests that Russia is maintaining its air campaign. The reports of a high-speed target in the direction of Shostka, Sumy Oblast, and the ongoing fighting in Kharkiv Oblast, highlight the continued intensity of the conflict in these regions. The evacuation of civilians from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions underscores the humanitarian impact of the fighting.

The Ukrainian General Staff's report of 168 combat clashes, one missile strike, and 1864 kamikaze drone attacks over the past day, along with the reported Russian losses, provides a quantitative measure of the conflict's intensity. The "Ghost Khortytsia" battalion's reported drone activities and claimed successes highlight the growing importance of drone warfare in the conflict.

The involvement of military personnel accused of war crimes in New Year's celebrations on Russian television is a disturbing development that underscores the brutality of the conflict. The propaganda efforts by both sides, including the video from the "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" Telegram channel and the video of the Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume, highlight the ongoing information war alongside the physical conflict.

The new information about SpaceX providing satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar and the US Department of Defense contract for Starlink terminals with access to the Starshield system further emphasizes the importance of technology in the conflict. This development could significantly enhance Ukraine's communication capabilities and potentially provide a tactical advantage.

The reported preparation for an assault by Russian forces in the Kherson region, with anticipated heavy losses, suggests a potential escalation in fighting in the south. This information, coming from a partisan source, highlights the ongoing resistance movement and the importance of intelligence gathering in the conflict.

The alleged attempted assassination in Donetsk, while not directly related to the broader military situation, underscores the internal instability and violence within the occupied territories.

The inspection of combat training by the Russian Minister of Defense, with a focus on FPV drones and tactical training, indicates Russia's continued efforts to adapt to the evolving nature of the conflict and improve the capabilities of its forces.

The Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile is a significant development that demonstrates the evolving capabilities of Ukrainian forces.

The ongoing fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces highlight the continued need for resources and equipment on both sides of the conflict. This underscores the importance of external support and the potential impact of resource disparities on the battlefield.

The Ukrainian morale-boosting video from the 97th Separate Mechanized Battalion is a typical example of information warfare aimed at raising spirits and demonstrating the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces.

President Zelensky's statement about helping Syria get rid of Russian influence adds a new geopolitical dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of Ukraine's foreign policy objectives. This could have implications for the broader geopolitical landscape and potentially lead to increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, significant casualties, and a high risk of further escalation. The strategic implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential impacts on regional and global stability. The increased use of technology, particularly drones and satellite communication, is playing a crucial role in shaping the battlefield. The information war continues alongside the physical conflict, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to influence public opinion and morale.

The new reports of air defense activity and explosions in Kyiv, along with the threat of ballistic missiles, indicate that the capital remains a target. The continued air activity over Russia, with the launch of strategic bombers and X-22 missiles, suggests that Russia is maintaining its air campaign. The reports of a high-speed target in the direction of Shostka, Sumy Oblast, and the ongoing fighting in Kharkiv Oblast, highlight the continued intensity of the conflict in these regions. The evacuation of civilians from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions underscores the humanitarian impact of the fighting.

The Ukrainian General Staff's report of 168 combat clashes, one missile strike, and 1864 kamikaze drone attacks over the past day, along with the reported Russian losses, provides a quantitative measure of the conflict's intensity. The "Ghost Khortytsia" battalion's reported drone activities and claimed successes highlight the growing importance of drone warfare in the conflict.

The involvement of military personnel accused of war crimes in New Year's celebrations on Russian television is a disturbing development that underscores the brutality of the conflict. The propaganda efforts by both sides, including the video from the "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" Telegram channel and the video of the Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume, highlight the ongoing information war alongside the physical conflict.

The new information about SpaceX providing satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar and the US Department of Defense contract for Starlink terminals with access to the Starshield system further emphasizes the importance of technology in the conflict. This development could significantly enhance Ukraine's communication capabilities and potentially provide a tactical advantage.

The reported preparation for an assault by Russian forces in the Kherson region, with anticipated heavy losses, suggests a potential escalation in fighting in the south. This information, coming from a partisan source, highlights the ongoing resistance movement and the importance of intelligence gathering in the conflict.

The alleged attempted assassination in Donetsk, while not directly related to the broader military situation, underscores the internal instability and violence within the occupied territories.

The inspection of combat training by the Russian Minister of Defense, with a focus on FPV drones and tactical training, indicates Russia's continued efforts to adapt to the evolving nature of the conflict and improve the capabilities of its forces.

The Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile is a significant development that demonstrates the evolving capabilities of Ukrainian forces.

The ongoing fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces highlight the continued need for resources and equipment on both sides of the conflict. This underscores the importance of external support and the potential impact of resource disparities on the battlefield.

The Ukrainian morale-boosting video from the 97th Separate Mechanized Battalion is a typical example of information warfare aimed at raising spirits and demonstrating the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces.

President Zelensky's statement about helping Syria get rid of Russian influence adds a new geopolitical dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of Ukraine's foreign policy objectives. This could have implications for the broader geopolitical landscape and potentially lead to increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, significant casualties, and a high risk of further escalation. The strategic implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential impacts on regional and global stability. The increased use of technology, particularly drones and satellite communication, is playing a crucial role in shaping the battlefield. The information war continues alongside the physical conflict, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to influence public opinion and morale.

The new reports of a drone approaching Sumy from the north-west and activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction indicate a continued and potentially expanding aerial threat. These developments underscore the need for Ukrainian forces to maintain a high level of vigilance and to continue developing their counter-drone capabilities. The ongoing fighting in Kharkiv and Kupyansk directions, along with the reported Russian advances in Donetsk, highlight the intensity of the conflict and the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces.

The successful drone strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russian positions and equipment demonstrate their continued ability to inflict losses on the enemy. However, the reported Russian advances and the capture of key locations, such as the Kurakhivska Thermal Power Plant, indicate that the balance of power on the ground may be shifting in Russia's favor.

The geopolitical implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential shifts in alliances and strategies. The reported interest of Ukraine in acquiring weapons and fighters from Syria, as well as the potential involvement of Chechen fighters, could further complicate the situation and lead to increased tensions with Russia. The ongoing discussions about peace negotiations and potential territorial concessions highlight the difficult choices facing Ukraine and its allies.

The humanitarian situation remains a major concern, with civilian casualties and infrastructure damage continuing to mount. The international community must continue to provide humanitarian assistance and support to Ukraine, while also working to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

The economic implications of the conflict are also significant, with the potential disruption of gas supplies through Ukraine and the increase in tariffs on goods from unfriendly countries impacting both Russia and its trading partners. The crash of a civilian airliner in South Korea, while not directly related to the conflict, is a tragic reminder of the broader risks and uncertainties in the current global environment.

The ongoing information war, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation, further complicates the situation and makes it difficult to obtain accurate and unbiased information about the conflict. The accusations of war crimes and the use of social media to spread propaganda highlight the need for careful analysis and critical evaluation of all information sources.

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unpredictable. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and its potential impact on the broader geopolitical landscape.