Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 6, 2025, 16:00 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making considerable progress in the Donetsk region, having fully captured Kurakhove and Dachne, and making substantial advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is particularly dire, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Additionally, Russian forces have advanced in Toretsk, Zelene, Petropavlivka, near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, and Pishchane. The capture of Ivanivka near Terny in the Luhansk region signifies a noteworthy Russian advance. Russian forces are consolidating their positions near Berdin. At the Kherson axis, Ukrainian forces have repelled 1 Russian army assault. In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have repelled 47 Russian army assaults.

A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated to be as high as 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment. Geolocated footage from January 5 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced in the fields southwest and south of Berdin and entered the southern part of the settlement. Geolocated footage also shows that Russian forces have advanced in the western and southern parts of Makhnovka. A new report indicates that the Ukrainian attempt to break through Russian defenses was unsuccessful, with Russian forces claiming to have destroyed the main Ukrainian forces near Berdin.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant aspect of the conflict, with both sides extensively using drones. Ukrainian forces are actively using drones to counter Russian advances, targeting individual soldiers and vehicles with precision strikes. Overnight, 12 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Russian regions, with a new report indicating 10 Russian drones shot down over Cherkasy Oblast. Russian forces also carried out strikes on targets in several Ukrainian regions, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson. The "Sudoplatov" unit's reported destruction of Ukrainian infantry and equipment, including a BMP, a Leopard 2A4 tank, and a British Husky TSV armored vehicle, highlights the ongoing and intense nature of drone warfare.

The intensified fighting in the Kursk region, especially near Leonidovo and Makhnovka, indicates a broadening of the conflict zone. Russian forces are consolidating their positions near Berdin. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya further demonstrates Russian military capabilities in this area. Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile usage in areas where an air alert has been declared, as well as drone activity in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. A new alert has also been issued regarding an enemy drone approaching Lubny in Poltava Oblast from the northeast. New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest. Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west. Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.

Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov congratulated the command and personnel of the 5th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade and the 110th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade for their actions in liberating Kurakhovo. More than 5,500 servicemen of these formations have been awarded state and departmental decorations.

Key Developments

Intensified Ground Operations and Russian Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk has significantly deteriorated, with reports indicating that less than 15% of the city remains under Ukrainian control. Russian forces control the entire southern part of the city and have advanced further into the city, including the northern part. Ukrainian sources confirm that 85% of the city is under Russian control. The battle for Toretsk is described as crucial for the fate of nearby cities, including Chasiv Yar, Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.
  • Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove and Dachne and are advancing towards Pokrovsk, posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. They report advances near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
    • New: In the area of Vozdvyzhenka, Russian assault units advanced towards road junctions leading to ravines.
    • New: Russian units entered Baranovka from the southern and eastern outskirts, initiating an assault.
    • New: In Yelizavetovka, Russian units are launching attacks, increasing pressure on the enemy.
  • Heroic Battle near Pokrovsk: A Russian tank, accompanied by two BMPs, engaged two Ukrainian tanks at a close range near Yelyzavetivka, east of Pokrovsk. The Russian tank successfully destroyed one Ukrainian tank. The second Ukrainian tank retreated. Following this engagement, Russian infantry secured positions in Yelyzavetivka.
  • Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are attempting to repel the Russian advance, reporting that they repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces report almost 110 battles today, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone striking a Russian BMP-2 with infantry on top in the Donetsk region. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires. Ukrainian forces, specifically the 60th Brigade, are showcasing their operations against Russian forces in Ivanivka. The situation in Ivanivka remains challenging, with no significant positive changes reported. Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ZIL with a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun near Krasnoe using a drone. An operational video from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the Vostok group showcases their drones destroying enemy observation and communication equipment near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators. Ukrainian forces, specifically the "RAROG" unit of the 24th Mechanized Brigade, report destroying four T-62 tanks and three BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles near Chasiv Yar. The 11th Guards Air Assault Army carried out air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Konstantinopol.
  • Casualties: Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk direction and claim to have neutralized 304 Russian troops, with 130 killed. They also report destroying one tank, four BMPs, six vehicles, one artillery system, and ten UAVs. Two artillery systems, one vehicle, and one tank were damaged.
  • Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km. Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km.
• Kursk Region:
  • Major Ukrainian Offensive: A major Ukrainian offensive is underway, with intense fighting reported near Leonidovo, Berdin, Bolshoe Soldatskoe, Martynovka, and Pushkarnoe. The Ukrainian General Staff reports over 40 battles in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian attempt to break through Russian defenses was unsuccessful, with Russian forces claiming to have destroyed the main Ukrainian forces near Berdin. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has officially supported the Ukrainian offensive, stating it is an important operation to strengthen Kyiv's position before future negotiations with Moscow.
  • Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. The 106th Airborne Division is conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar.
    • Russian forces have liberated the village of Leonidovo.
    • Russian forces have almost captured Makhnovka and Alexandria.
    • Russian forces also reportedly destroyed a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier using a drone. A video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense shows further destruction of Ukrainian equipment.
    • Russian forces report they destroyed 3 Leopard tanks in the border areas of the Kursk region. The tanks were reportedly targeted by FPV drones equipped with fiber optic guidance. Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area. Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka. Russian forces used FPV drones to stop a Ukrainian tank and BMP, preventing a rotation. Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka. South of Kruhlenky, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka. They are also advancing towards Leonidove. Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line. Video shows drone footage from the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaging Russian infantry in the Kursk region.
  • Situation near Berdin: Russian forces are reportedly eliminating remaining Ukrainian troops near Berdin without significant resistance. Expected Ukrainian reserves have not arrived, suggesting a potential failure in the Ukrainian offensive plan.
  • Casualties: Russian sources claim the Ukrainian military has lost over 540 troops, with new reports indicating even heavier losses, reaching 48,000 casualties. The Russian MoD claims that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the Ukrainian military has lost almost 48,000 troops, as well as hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks, artillery pieces, and other military equipment. The Russian MoD reports that the AFU lost over 540 troops, as well as numerous tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery pieces in an attempt to invade Kursk region on January 4th. Russian forces report that Ukrainian losses in Kursk are approaching 48,000 troops.
  • Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian forces making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka.
  • Ukrainian Units Identified: The Ukrainian units involved in the offensive are identified as the 95th, 92nd, 22nd, 82nd, and 225th Brigades, although it is clarified that only parts of these brigades are involved.
  • Drone Attack on Kursk: Reports indicate a drone attack on Kursk, with claims of a "massive raid from several sides at once." Air defense systems were reportedly active.
  • Successful Tank Elimination: A Ukrainian tank was targeted and destroyed by a Russian Lancet loitering munition near Berdin.
• Luhansk Region:
  • Russian Advances: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia.
  • Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, according to both Russian and Ukrainian sources. This marks a significant Russian advance in the Luhansk region. Russian forces are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanivka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
  • Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week. Ukrainian losses are reported to be over 8,000 soldiers and mercenaries.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

• Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively.
  • Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces, causing significant damage to Ukrainian equipment and personnel.
    • Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
    • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
    • Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
    • A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
    • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.
    • Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction.
    • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
    • Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
    • Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles.
    • Ukrainian drone units reported successful strikes on a Russian armored vehicle in the Sumy region, near the Kursk border.
    • Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
    • Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
    • Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
    • Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region.
    • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
    • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. The operation involved a group of attack drones, including "Baba Yaga" heavy bombers and FPV drones. The T-90 tank was destroyed by a direct hit from an FPV drone, while the ammunition depot was destroyed by a "Baba Yaga" drone.
    • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Ronins" unit of the 65th Mechanized Brigade, are actively working to destroy enemy logistics using drones.
    • Ukrainian 37th Marine Brigade used mines, artillery, FPV-drones, and other drones to repel Russian attacks on the Kurakhiv direction.
    • Fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy mortar with an FPV drone.
  • New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn. Russian drones are causing problems for Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.
  • Drone Movements: Reports indicate drone movements in Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • Reports of drone movements in various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad.
    • Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
    • Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
    • City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
    • Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest;
    • Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
    • Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west;
    • Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
    • Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
    • Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
    • One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
    • Enemy drones are reported in the east of Chernihiv and Sumy regions, moving southwest.
    • Enemy drones are in the east, south, and center of Chernihiv region, in the center and southern parts of Sumy region, moving west/southwest.
    • Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of enemy drones in the southwest of Sumy and the center of Chernihiv regions, moving southwest.
    • One Shahed drone is circling at the intersection of the Sumy and Poltava regions.
    • The Air Force reported Shahed drones in the east of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
    • Shahed drones are present in the south of Sumy Oblast, the east of Poltava Oblast, and the west of Kharkiv Oblast, moving northwards.
    • Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west.
    • Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are currently observed in the east of Poltava region, with a southwesterly course.
    • Ukrainian Air Force reports an enemy drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
  • 340 additional drones have been procured by Ukrainian forces thanks to donations, bringing the total to 134,114 FPV drones. Overnight, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast. Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
  • Ukrainian forces successfully employed a drone to eliminate a single Russian soldier.
• Air Defense Engagements:
  • Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Reports indicate drone activity near Kyiv. The threat of attack drones has been lifted across all regions, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
  • A Ukrainian drone was shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia. No casualties or damage were reported.
  • Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
    • Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly shot down 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast during the night.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
• New Drone Activity:
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
  • Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd.
  • Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south. A drone is in the northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is heading towards Chornobai.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
• Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones: New drones entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, moving southwest. Drones in eastern and western Poltava Oblast, moving west. Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest. Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
• New Alert: Ukrainian Air Force reports an enemy drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
• New: Ukrainian air defenses are preparing for a possible Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber attack tonight.

Geopolitical Developments

• Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also hopes that Trump can end the war and provide strong security guarantees to Ukraine. Zelensky stated that elections in Ukraine could be held 90 days after the war's end. He also expressed a desire for Elon Musk to be maximally on Ukraine's side, acknowledging his gratitude for "Starlinks." In an interview, Zelensky stated that Ukraine would be open to a ceasefire if partners provided weapons to repel future Russian attacks. Zelensky's interview continues to be a topic of discussion, with Russian media criticizing his language and behavior. A video of Zelensky's interview has been released, where he criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia after the start of the special military operation, stating that "it's bullshit." He also claims that everyone didn't care about Ukraine and the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum. He further states that he told Trump to give Ukraine $300 billion from Russian assets to buy weapons and invest in the US industry. Lastly, he expresses his lack of respect for the current Russian leadership and its people.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23. The German government has ruled out a visit by Scholz to Moscow before February 23rd.
• Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
• Legal Action Against Von Der Leyen: A Belgian court will consider whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has legal immunity against corruption allegations related to the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
• German Foreign Minister on Aid to Syria: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made the provision of aid to Syria under new authorities dependent on respect for women's rights, stating that the EU will not send money "to Islamist structures." While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, the impact of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock's statement on aid to Syria is being monitored. Any potential implications for international relations and humanitarian efforts in the region are being assessed.
• North Korean Missile Launch: North Korea has reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile, according to the Japanese coast guard. The missile fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan. North Korea launched a ballistic missile that flew about 1,100 km and fell into the Sea of Japan, according to the Yonhap news agency. North Korea's test of a ballistic missile during Blinken's visit to Seoul underscores the continued tensions in the region and the potential for further escalation. The test highlights the importance of cooperation between the US, South Korea, and Japan in addressing North Korean threats.
• Trump's Potential Pardon: Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon around 1,000 people involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. This could potentially impact the US political landscape and influence future support for Ukraine.
• Medvedev's Statement on Zelensky: Dmitry Medvedev, a prominent Russian figure, has intensified his rhetoric against Zelensky, stating that the Russian people's disdain for him should not end with his removal from office. This further highlights the personal animosity and deep-seated tensions between the two sides.
• Hungarian Foreign Minister's Statement: Hungary has resumed the operation of its embassy in Syria, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.
• Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely. Macron also stated that Trump knows that the US has no chance of winning anything if Ukraine loses.

Other Significant Developments

• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties. Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000 casualties. The video from Butusov Plus showing a cemetery in Surgut with numerous graves of Russian soldiers suggests a high casualty rate among Russian forces. This could potentially impact morale and recruitment efforts.
• Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
• Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins. More than 715 square kilometers of the Kerch Strait water area have been surveyed by the Ministry of Emergency Situations after the incident with tankers. Over 86,000 tons of contaminated soil have been collected on the coastline by the Ministry of Emergency Situations, municipal representatives, and volunteers.
• US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th. The US is planning to introduce new sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet, targeting tankers carrying Russian oil sold above the price cap.
• Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
• Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
• Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, destroying 11 Ukrainian drones. Video evidence also shows the destruction of another Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region. A Russian Su-34 also struck Ukrainian infantry and equipment at a stronghold in the Kursk region. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that all 8 ATACMS missiles used for strikes on Russia were shot down by S-400 and "Pantsir-SM" air defense systems.
• Ukrainian Military App: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app.
• Fire in Kirov Oblast: A criminal case has been opened following a fire in Kirov Oblast that resulted in multiple fatalities. Eight people died in a fire in an apartment building in the village of Kilmez in the Kirov region.
• Internal Russian Political Developments: A scandal has emerged involving Russian deputies Fedorov and Matveychev, who reportedly criticized those fighting against illegal migration, labeling them as agents of British intelligence. This has sparked controversy and condemnation from various figures, including political analyst Sergei Markov. The situation has led to internal political tensions within Russia, with expectations of a response from the leadership of the State Duma.
• Confiscation of Assets: Russian authorities have begun the confiscation of assets belonging to former minister Abyzov, amounting to nearly 24 billion rubles, as indicated by court documents.
• Two people were injured: Two people were injured after a drone attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region. One man suffered shrapnel wounds to the face, chest and arm, and the second suffered a shrapnel wound to the head, barotrauma and contusion.
• Poet and songwriter killed: Russian poet and songwriter Oleg Gegelsky was killed in the special operation zone at the age of 60. He was reportedly on a mission, traveling in a car through a "gray zone," when he came under artillery fire.
• South Korean President's Arrest Warrant: The Anti-Corruption Investigation Department for Senior Officials is reportedly transferring an arrest warrant application for South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol to the police in connection with a mutiny case.
• Former Deputy Head of Kuban Emergency Situations Ministry Cooperates with Investigation: Former Deputy Head of the Kuban Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Simonenko, is reportedly cooperating with the investigation and providing detailed testimony.
• Increased Air Ticket Purchases: Russians have been increasingly purchasing air tickets to Japan, China, Vietnam, and South Korea in 2024.
• Ukrainian Soldiers Trained in Britain: A group of Ukrainian soldiers from the 117th Brigade, trained in Britain under a program approved by Boris Johnson, are reportedly preparing to enter the battle on the Pokrovsk direction. The reported training of Ukrainian soldiers in Britain and their impending deployment to the Pokrovsk direction, along with the reported destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles by Russian drone operators, demonstrate the continued international involvement in the conflict and the effectiveness of drone warfare.
• Russian Drone Operators Strike Ukrainian Vehicles: Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles. The reported destruction of two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles by Russian FPV drone operators highlights the ongoing threat posed by Russian drones and their effectiveness in targeting Ukrainian equipment.
• China's Satellite Technology: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink. This achievement could serve as the foundation for future technologies like 6G, next-generation satellite positioning systems, and ultra-high-resolution remote sensing.
• Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field. The location seems to be of civilian nature, but with enough structure and accessibility to become a prime point for military operations. Military planners would focus on the palace as a high-value target, while the marina and nearby areas could be considered as potential supply routes and staging areas.
• Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported. The Kerch Strait transit data highlights its importance for Russian naval logistics and movements.
• Russian Military Operations in Kursk Region: Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar. In Chasiv Yar, Ivanovo paratroopers repelled a Ukrainian drone attack, suppressing four Baba Yaga drones with small arms fire. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
• Historical Commemoration: January 6, 1813, marked the end of the Patriotic War, with Emperor Alexander I issuing a manifesto and ordering the construction of the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow. The event was celebrated annually on Christmas Day until the October Revolution. The "Great Army" of Napoleon suffered significant losses, with over 550,000 killed, wounded, or captured. The Patriotic War of 1812 had a profound impact on Russia's internal development and demonstrated the heroism