Military Intelligence Daily Summary - Ukrainian Perspective (February 20, 2025)

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: AI Military Intelligence Assistant Date: February 21, 2025 (05:54 UTC - Covering reports from February 21, 2025, 00:00 UTC to February 21, 2025, 05:53 UTC)

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I. Executive Summary

The reporting period of February 21, 2025 (00:00-05:53 UTC) saw a dramatic escalation in the conflict, characterized by confirmed and significant Russian advances, a highly volatile and dangerous geopolitical landscape, and intense fighting across multiple fronts. Key developments include:

1. Confirmed Russian Breakthroughs and Advances (Extreme Priority):
   • Donetsk Oblast:
     • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces captured the entire "Severny" microdistrict and Hryhorivka.
     • Ulakly: Fully captured by Russian forces.
     • Novoselka and Nadezhdinka: Captured by Russian forces.
     • Novoocheretuvate: Captured by Russian forces.
     • Krasnoarmeisk/Pokrovsk Direction: Significant Russian advances, with forces establishing positions in the northern part of Lysovka and fighting ongoing.
     • Konstantynopol Direction: Russian forces are advancing and are close to the settlement, having reportedly been pushed back near Andriivka.
     • Myrne: Russian forces launched an offensive to "liberate" the settlement.
     • Lyman Direction: Russian forces reportedly expanding their control zone near Bilohorivka and advancing along the river Severski Donets.

• **Kursk Oblast (Inside Russia):** *Intense fighting* continues, with Russian forces reporting *significant Ukrainian losses*. Claims of *poor coordination* and *use of foreign mercenaries* by Ukraine.
  

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian forces claim to have taken control of half of Piatykhatky. Russian forces claim advances near Orikhiv.

2. Intensified Air and Drone Warfare (Extreme Priority):

   • Massive Overnight Drone Attack: A major Russian drone attack targeted multiple regions, with Ukraine claiming to have shot down 87 out of 160 drones.
   • Continued Drone Attacks: Persistent drone activity reported across various regions, including Kyiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
   • FPV Drones: Both sides continue to extensively use FPV drones for attacks on personnel and equipment.
   • Ballistic Missile Threat: A ballistic missile attack targeted Odesa/Zatoka, with explosions confirmed.
   • Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued use by Russian forces.
   • Russian Air Defense Claims: Russian sources claim to have shot down a significant number of Ukrainian drones.

3. Geopolitical Crisis Deepens (Extreme Priority):

   • US Policy Shift: Reports indicate a potential radical shift in US policy, including:
     • Weapon Sales Halt/Slowdown: Conflicting reports, with some sources claiming a complete halt, others a slowdown, and still others denying any change.
     • Pressure on Ukraine: Reports suggest Trump may demand Zelensky's departure and pressure Europe to negotiate Ukraine's surrender.
     • "Shit Sandwich" Deal: A highly unfavorable US-Ukraine minerals agreement is reportedly being forced upon Ukraine.
     • US-Russia "Consensus": China reportedly supports a US-Russia "consensus" on the war, the details of which are unknown and highly concerning.
     • Pro-Ukrainian language has been removed from G7 statements
     • Reports that the US won't be backing a Ukrainian resolution.
     • Republican Bill: A new Republican bill has been proposed, suggesting US withdrawal from the UN.
   • European Concerns: Growing concerns in Europe about reliance on US security guarantees and a push for greater European defense autonomy. Macron calls for increased European defense spending. Germany is reportedly concerned about a potential US betrayal.
   • US-Russia Talks: Secret talks between US and Russian officials are confirmed, with discussions reportedly excluding territorial issues for now.
   • Trump-Putin Meeting: Rumours continue to circulate about a potential meeting, even as soon as the start of May.

4. Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Actions (High Priority):

   • Confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian personnel and equipment.
   • Reported repelling of Russian attacks in various locations, including near Vovchansk, Zapadne, Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and Lozova.
   • Reported destruction of multiple Russian Buk-M3 air defense systems (requires verification).
   • Continued Ukrainian development of new drone technologies, including the "Trembita" cruise missile.
   • Ukrainian Night Operations: The Ukrainian forces continue their efforts to defeat Russian forces.
   • Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed multiple Russian tanks.
   • Ukrainian marines are conducting strikes in the Kursk region.

5. Intensified Information Warfare (High Priority):

   • Coordinated Russian propaganda campaign to declare "victory" and undermine Ukrainian morale and Western support.
   • Elon Musk continues to make controversial statements critical of Zelensky and questioning US aid to Ukraine.
   • Conflicting reports and disinformation spread by both sides, making verification of claims extremely challenging.

6. Potential War Crimes (High Priority):

   • Reported executions of Ukrainian POWs, allegedly as part of a deliberate Russian policy.
   • Allegations of torture of Russian POWs by Ukrainian forces (Russian source, requires verification).
   • Reports of Russian soldiers being sent back to the front lines after sustaining injuries.
   • Allegations of forceful recruitment in the Ukrainian army, and soldiers being executed.
   • Claims that Russian soldiers are going unpaid.

7. Civilian Casualties and Damage (High Priority):

   • Confirmed Russian airstrikes and attacks targeting civilian infrastructure, resulting in casualties and damage.
   • Kharkiv Oblast: Multiple settlements affected by drone and guided bomb attacks.
   • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Casualties reported in Huliaipole and Bilenke.
   • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Damage to residential buildings in Nikopol, Marhanetska, Pokrovska, and Chervonohryhorivska communities.
   • Konstantinovka: Significant airstrike causing multiple casualties and damage.
   • Odesa/Zatoka: Ballistic missile attacks confirmed.

8. Russian Logistics and Infrastructure (Medium Priority):

   • New Railway Link: Russia has established a new railway connection between Rostov and Mariupol, significantly enhancing logistics and bypassing the Kerch Strait Bridge.
   • Targeting Ukrainian Infrastructure: Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian gas-power, port, and defense-related electrical infrastructure.

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III. Detailed Assessments and Recommendations by Key Area/Domain

A. Military Operations

1. Russian Advances (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Russian forces have made confirmed, significant gains in multiple areas, particularly in the Donetsk region (Chasiv Yar, Ulakly, Novoselka, Nadezhdinka, Novoocheretuvate). Reports of advances in the Zaporizhzhia region (Piatykhatky) and Kharkiv region (near Liptsy and Volchansk) are highly concerning and require urgent verification. The situation is extremely dynamic and fluid, with intense fighting reported across multiple fronts. The reported fighting inside Russian territory (Kursk region) is particularly alarming and suggests a potential broadening of the conflict.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Verify all reported Russian advances using all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence, signals intelligence, intercepted communications). Prioritize verification of claims around Chasiv Yar, Ulakly, Novoselka, Nadezhdinka, Novoocheretuvate, Piatykhatky, Liptsy, Volchansk, and the Kursk region.
     • (Immediate Action) Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in threatened areas, deploying additional troops, equipment (especially anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS), and fortifications. Focus on preventing further Russian breakthroughs and stabilizing the front lines.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare for potential counteroffensives to regain lost territory, but only if resources and conditions allow. Focus on exploiting identified weaknesses in Russian forces (e.g., poor coordination, reliance on poorly trained recruits).
     • (Immediate Action) Address logistical challenges caused by damaged infrastructure (e.g., railways, bridges) and ensure adequate supplies reach frontline units.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare for potential encirclement attempts by Russian forces, especially in the Donetsk region. Develop contingency plans for evacuation of troops and civilians if necessary.
     • (Ongoing) Monitor Russian troop movements and preparations for further offensive operations.
     • (Ongoing) Exploit opportunities for counter-attacks where identified Russian weaknesses exist (e.g., reports of poor coordination, reliance on poorly trained recruits, potential vulnerabilities near Toretsk). Use asymmetric tactics (drone warfare, special operations) to disrupt Russian logistics and command and control.
     • (Ongoing) Maintain the STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE INITIATIVE, despite current losses, by making gains in areas that are less defended.

2. Air and Drone Warfare (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: Russia continues its intense air and drone campaign, using a wide range of weapons systems to target both military and civilian targets. Ukrainian air defenses are under extreme pressure, but continue to claim successes. The reported use of fiber-optic guided drones by Russia is a major concern. Ukraine's rapid development and deployment of new drone technologies offer a potential asymmetric advantage.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Maintain maximum air defense readiness across all of Ukraine, prioritizing areas under immediate threat (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa regions).
     • (Immediate Action) Deploy all available air defense systems, including those capable of intercepting guided aerial bombs (KABs) and ballistic missiles.
     • (Immediate Action) Continue to develop and deploy countermeasures against Russian drone tactics, including electronic warfare systems, anti-drone guns, and operational security measures to protect Ukrainian drone control points.
     • (Immediate Action) Prioritize the destruction of Russian drone launch sites and control centers, using long-range strike capabilities where possible.
     • (Ongoing) Continue to enhance Ukrainian drone capabilities, focusing on reconnaissance, targeting, and attack.
     • (Ongoing) Seek additional air defense systems and munitions from Western allies, specifically addressing the need for systems capable of countering KABs.
     • (Ongoing) Develop strategies to mitigate the impact of adverse weather on drone operations.
     • (Ongoing) Secure alternative communication infrastructure to reduce reliance on potentially vulnerable systems like Starlink.
     • (Ongoing) Prioritize the deployment of new Ukrainian drone technologies (e.g., "Trembita" missile, "Bulava" UAV, ground-based kamikaze drones) to areas where they can have the greatest strategic effect.

3. Kursk Region (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: The situation in the Kursk region is highly volatile and unclear. Confirmed reports of intense fighting within Russian territory, with both sides claiming successes. Putin's direct involvement highlights the seriousness of the situation.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Urgently clarify the situation on the ground, verifying the extent of Ukrainian and Russian operations and the affiliation of casualties.
     • (Immediate Action) Reinforce border defenses and prepare for potential further incursions or escalation of the conflict.
     • (Immediate Action) Investigate claims of friendly fire incidents and the potential involvement of foreign mercenaries.
     • (Immediate Action) Monitor for any signs of a potential Ukrainian breakthrough attempt near Grayvoron.

4. Allegations of War Crimes:

   • Assessment: Reports of executions of Ukrainian POWs and other potential war crimes DEMAND IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION.
   • Recommendations: All recommendations from the previous report remain valid.

B. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Situation

1. US-Ukraine Relations Crisis (Extreme Priority):
   • Assessment: The situation continues to deteriorate, with increasingly hostile rhetoric from Trump and his allies, conflicting reports about US military aid, and a potential "shit sandwich" deal over minerals. This THREATENS UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO CONTINUE THE WAR and INCREASES PRESSURE to negotiate on UNFAVORABLE TERMS.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Urgently seek clarification from the US government regarding the status of military aid, the terms of the minerals agreement, and the overall US policy towards Ukraine.
     • (Immediate Action) Engage in high-level diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation and reassert Ukrainian interests.
     • (Immediate Action) Coordinate with European allies to develop a unified response to the potential shift in US policy.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare contingency plans for a potential reduction or withdrawal of US support, including exploring alternative sources of aid and security guarantees.
     • (Immediate Action) Develop a clear and consistent communications strategy to address the situation and maintain public morale.
     • (Immediate Action) Directly and forcefully address accusations of lying and counter negative narratives about Zelensky's leadership.
     • (Ongoing) Maintain open communication channels with all relevant US officials, even those critical of Ukraine, to attempt to influence policy and mitigate negative outcomes.

• *(Immediate Action)* Examine the reports that claim Trump's allies are calling for Zelensky to leave the country, and determine their credibility.
  

2. US-Russia Negotiations (High Priority):

   • Assessment: Ongoing talks, excluding Ukraine, raise serious concerns about potential agreements that could undermine Ukrainian interests. Reports of a potential US-Russia "consensus" supported by China are PARTICULARLY ALARMING.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Monitor the talks closely, gathering intelligence on the topics discussed and any potential agreements reached.
     • (Immediate Action) Demand transparency from the US and Russia regarding the negotiations.
     • (Immediate Action) Insist on direct Ukrainian participation in any talks that affect its future.
     • (Immediate Action) Coordinate with European allies to present a unified front and resist pressure to make unacceptable concessions.
     • (Immediate Action) Investigate the reported "consensus" between the US and Russia, seeking clarification from both countries and assessing the potential implications for Ukraine.

3. Potential Trump-Putin Meeting (High Priority):

   • Assessment: Reports of a potential meeting between Trump and Putin, possibly as early as May 9th, are HIGHLY CONCERNING. Even if Trump is not in office, such a meeting could SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT the conflict's trajectory.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Gather all available intelligence on the potential meeting, including the agenda, timing, location, and potential outcomes.
     • (Immediate Action) Assess the implications for Ukraine and develop contingency plans.
     • (Immediate Action) Coordinate with European allies to ensure Ukrainian interests are represented and protected.

4. European Support and Division (Medium Priority):

   • Assessment: While some European countries (e.g., Lithuania, Poland) remain strongly supportive of Ukraine, divisions persist within the EU, particularly regarding troop deployments and Hungary's obstructionism.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Ongoing) Intensify diplomatic efforts to bridge the gap between European countries.
     • (Ongoing) Emphasize the need for a unified European response to Russian aggression.
     • (Ongoing) Seek concrete commitments from individual European countries on military and financial support.
     • (Ongoing) Explore alternative mechanisms for providing support to Ukraine if EU unity cannot be maintained.
     • (Ongoing) Welcome and support initiatives like the upcoming meeting of European defense ministers convened by Estonia and France.
     • (Ongoing) Address German concerns about potential US withdrawal from its allies and explore options for closer security cooperation.

5. Potential Shift in US Foreign Policy (Extreme Priority):

   • Assessment: The reported Republican bill to withdraw the US from the UN, the removal of pro-Ukrainian language from G7 statements, and the reported consideration of easing sanctions on Russia all point to a POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN US FOREIGN POLICY that could have CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES for Ukraine and the international order.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Urgently engage with US officials at all levels to CLARIFY THE US POSITION on these issues and EXPRESS STRONG CONCERNS about the potential implications.
     • (Immediate Action) Work with European allies to COUNTERACT ANY US MOVES that would undermine international support for Ukraine or weaken the international order.
     • (Immediate Action) Develop contingency plans for scenarios involving REDUCED US INVOLVEMENT in international institutions.
     • (Immediate Action) Engage with the US Congress.

C. Information Warfare

1. Countering Disinformation (High Priority):
   • Assessment: The information environment remains HIGHLY CONTESTED, with INTENSE PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION EFFORTS by both sides. Russia is actively preparing a campaign to declare "victory" and undermine Ukrainian morale and Western support.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Proactively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly claims of Ukrainian atrocities, inflated casualty figures, and narratives undermining Zelensky's legitimacy.
     • (Immediate Action) Prepare for and preemptively counter the expected Russian "victory" declaration.
     • (Immediate Action) Highlight Russian war crimes and violations of international law.
     • (Immediate Action) Promote accurate information through reliable media channels and international platforms.
     • (Immediate Action) Address the hacking of the Ukrainian internet provider and strengthen cybersecurity measures to prevent future breaches.
     • (Ongoing) Monitor Russian media and social media channels for DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA.
     • (Ongoing) Counter false narratives and PROMOTE ACCURATE INFORMATION to both domestic and international audiences.
     • (Ongoing) Debunk claims of a Ukrainian drone shooting down a TU-95.

D. Internal Security

1. Espionage and Sabotage (High Priority):
   • Assessment: The confirmed attempted terrorist attacks in the Kyiv region and the reported terrorist attack in Odesa highlight the CONTINUED THREAT OF RUSSIAN SABOTAGE AND TERRORIST ACTIVITIES within Ukraine.
   • Recommendations:
     • (Immediate Action) Maintain vigilance and enhance counterintelligence efforts.
     • (Immediate Action) Thoroughly vet personnel with access to sensitive information or critical infrastructure.
     • (Immediate Action) Increase security measures at military installations, key facilities, and potential targets within Ukraine. Extend this to Russian territory where possible.
     • (Immediate Action) *Investigate the Odesa explosion to determine the cause and prevent future incidents.
   • (Immediate Action) Investigate the Kaluga fire to determine the cause. * (Immediate Action) Increase security measures in ODESA to PREVENT FURTHER ATTACKS.
   • (Immediate Action) Increase security measures in KYIV to PREVENT ATTACKS.

E. Other

1. Chernobyl (Medium Priority):

   • Assessment: The damage to the sarcophagus is concerning, though no immediate radiation leak is reported.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue monitoring the situation closely.
     • Cooperate with international organizations (IAEA) to assess the damage and ensure long-term safety.

2. Claimed Improvement of North Korean Missiles (High Priority, Verification Needed):

   • Assessment: If true, this would be a major threat.
   • Recommendation: Verify this claim.

3. Claimed Depletion of Weapon Stockpiles (Extreme Priority, Verification Needed):

   • Assessment: This could make continued support difficult.
   • Recommendation: Verify this claim.

4. New Russian Technologies (High Priority):

   • Assessment: The Russian "Titan" anti-drone system indicates a new effort at creating weapons.
   • Recommendation: Find out more details.

5. Rare Earth Metals (Medium Priority):

   • Assessment: The situation remains unclear, but SIGNIFICANT TENSIONS are evident.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue to seek clarification on the status of the agreement and the US position.

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IV. Overall Assessment

The situation in Ukraine is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES across multiple fronts, the INTENSIFIED AIR AND DRONE CAMPAIGN, the ESCALATING TENSIONS WITH THE US, and the POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY represent a CONVERGENCE OF NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENTS that THREATEN UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO CONTINUE THE WAR.

Key Concerns and Priorities:

• Russian Military Gains: The CONFIRMED CAPTURE OF ULAKLY, NOVOOCHERETUVATE, AND NOVOSELKA, and the REPORTED ADVANCES towards KONSTANTYNOPOL, POKROVSK, and in the KHARKIV REGION represent a SERIOUS THREAT and require IMMEDIATE MILITARY ACTION to REINFORCE DEFENSES, COUNTERATTACK WHERE POSSIBLE, and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGHS.
• Air and Drone Threats: The CONTINUED INTENSE RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS, including TARGETING OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, demand MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS and EFFECTIVE COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES.
• Geopolitical Instability: The POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY, UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FUTURE US AID, TRUMP'S NEGATIVE RHETORIC, and the REPORTED "SHIT SANDWICH" DEAL create a HIGHLY PRECARIOUS DIPLOMATIC SITUATION that REQUIRES URGENT AND FORCEFUL ACTION.
• Information Warfare: The INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN and DISINFORMATION EFFORTS require a ROBUST AND PROACTIVE COUNTER-STRATEGY.
• Potential War Crimes: The REPORTED EXECUTIONS OF UKRAINIAN POWS and OTHER POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES demand IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION and INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTABILITY.

IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS to address these threats and MITIGATE THE DAMAGE. SECURING CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT, DEFENDING AGAINST RUSSIAN ADVANCES, COUNTERING AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS, and MANAGING THE DETERIORATING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE US are the HIGHEST PRIORITIES. The situation is EXTREMELY FLUID, and CONSTANT MONITORING, RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES are ESSENTIAL.