Situation Report

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 07 JUN 25 / 17:42 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 07 JUN 25 / 17:12 ZULU - 07 JUN 25 / 17:42 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• AOR Update (Unchanged from previous report unless specified): Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City - Kyivskyi, Osnovyanskyi, Shevchenkivskyi Districts, suburbs, Kommunar factory, recreational park, children's railway), Volyn Oblast (Lutsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro, oblast border, Kryvyi Rih, Pavlohrad, Pleshcheevka, Malinovka, Charivne, Mezheva community, Synelnykove district, Nikopol region), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (14 populated areas, Zaporozhye direction, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Chervonne, Malinovka), Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast (Sumy direction, Yunakivka, Kondratovka, Alexandropol, Klymentove, Uhroyidy, Novonikolaevka, Pisarevka, Khotin, Vorochina, Nizhnya Duvanka, Yablonovka, Andreevka), Russian Federation (Kursk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city (Gorbushkin Dvor, VDNKh), Saratov Oblast - Engels; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol), Southern Donetsk Direction (Fedorivka, Perbudova, Komar, Maksimovka, Razdolnoye, Vorskresenka, Poddubnoye, Velyka Novosilka, Chasov Yar), Konstantinovka direction (Novoolenovka, Novaya Poltavka, Tarasovka, Ignatovka, Zarya), Siversk direction (Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Ivano-Daryivka, Pereizne), Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis, Toretsk axis, Novopavlivka axis, Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka), Kupyansk axis (Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka), Kherson axis (Mykolayivka), Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction, Lviv Oblast (Drohobych).

• Key Terrain (Kharkiv City - Updated): Civilian casualty count due to KAB strikes on recreational park and children's railway confirmed as 1 fatality (head of the Kharkiv Children's Railway) and over 40 injured. Zelenskiy states the attack had "no military sense. Pure terrorism." He also confirmed Kharkiv was under persistent attack (drone last night, then aerial bombs all day). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Key Terrain (Sumy Oblast - Yablonovka, Andreevka - NEW): Russian milblogger "Операция Z" claims Russian forces have "liberated" Yablonovka and are advancing towards Sumy. A Russian map dated 07 JUN 25 also depicts Andreevka and Yablonovka as under Russian control, and extensive Russian-controlled territory extending into Sumy Oblast, 30-40km deep, with defensive fortifications (dragon's teeth, trenches) marked within Russian-controlled areas. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim of control, HIGH for map content and intent).

• Key Terrain (Southern Donetsk Direction): Russian milblogger "Colonelcassad" claims Russian forces are "firmly entered" into Komar and fighting for its liberation, following the "rapid liberation" of Fedorivka. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim).

• Key Terrain (Kherson City): Russian milblogger "Colonelcassad" posted a video showing the "destroyed Kherson Regional Administration building" (believed to be Ukrainian-controlled) from a close distance, claiming it was an "airstrike by Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF)." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim of cause, HIGH for observed significant damage to building).

• Key Terrain (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Dnipro - NEW): Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska opened the second "Superhumans" Center for war trauma rehabilitation in Dnipro. This indicates ongoing efforts to support civilian and military casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Key Terrain (Pushkino, Moscow Region, RF - Updated): The large warehouse fire, initially 8,000 sq meters, has expanded to 21,000 sq meters, confirmed to involve oils and lubricants (PMM). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Large-scale fires in Pushkino (Moscow Region) will continue to generate significant smoke plumes, impacting air quality and visibility for local aerial reconnaissance/drone operations, and straining local emergency services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Artillery/missile strikes observed in an urban area with "petals" (PFM-1 mines) will create a persistent hazard for both civilians and potential friendly ground operations due to mine contamination and debris. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Damage to infrastructure in Kharkiv and Kherson will continue to disrupt civilian life and local logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): Air Force of Ukraine reports continued threat of Russian attack UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian AD is under immense pressure in Kharkiv due to KABs. Zelenskiy explicitly stated Ukraine is still awaiting a US response on purchasing air defense systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Forces (Emergency Services): Overwhelmed in Kharkiv, with photos and videos confirming active SES and National Police personnel responding to over 40 casualties and significant urban damage. They are also active at the Ternopil fire, indicating multi-front strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Forces (Ground Forces - Offensive Operations): Ukrainian General Staff released a video showcasing artillery (D-30, HIMARS-like MLRS) and drone operations, with ordnance inscribed "For Sumy" and "Burn in hell." Personnel explicitly mention operations in the Kursk direction. A captured Russian Naval Infantry patch ("810") is also shown. Zelenskiy confirmed "days ago, three Iskander launchers were destroyed" and the downing of a Russian Su-35, plus damage to helicopters. He also mentioned "new hits on Russian military logistics, airfields." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Forces (Deep Strike): SBU's "Operation Pavutina" drone strike on Tu-22M3 bomber and Kstovo oil refinery (previous report) remains a critical success. Zelenskiy's speech further confirms deep strikes on "Russian military logistics, airfields." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Forces (Air): Confirmed continued KAB launches on Kharkiv. Russian VKS claimed a bridge strike near Shakhovo and an airstrike on Kherson Regional Administration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Animated map from Russian milblogger "Colonelcassad" shows a widespread pattern of Russian strikes across Ukraine on 6-7 JUN 25, indicating coordinated and multi-vector air/missile operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for observed pattern, MEDIUM for claimed BDA).
• Russian Forces (Ground - Sumy Axis): Basurin (DNR official) claims "our troops continue to expand the control zone in Sumy Oblast, fulfilling the order of the Commander-in-Chief on forming a buffer zone." Russian milblogger "Операция Z" claims "Army of Russia liberated Yablonovka, advancing towards Sumy," and a Russian map depicts significant Russian territorial control in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claims, consistent with observed intent and mapping). Russian "Kontora" group operating drones on Kupyansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for drone operation)
• Russian Forces (Ground - Defensive Posture): Tactical maps show extensive fortifications (dragon's teeth, trenches) in the Krasnolimanskoye direction, indicating prepared and hardened defensive lines. The new Russian map of Sumy Oblast also depicts fortifications within their claimed controlled territory, suggesting prepared defensive positions if an advance occurs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Forces (Information Operations):
  • Margarita Simonyan (RT editor), "Dnevnik Desantnika", TASS (Maria Zakharova), and Russian MoD Deputy Defence Minister Aleksandr Fomin continue to amplify the narrative that Kyiv refused to accept bodies of Ukrainian military personnel, attributing it to a desire to avoid compensation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian milbloggers (Kotenok, Voin DV, Операция Z, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Kotsnews) continue to post BDA videos of claimed Ukrainian equipment destruction and share maps of claimed territorial gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian propaganda continues to exploit internal Western discord (Trump/Musk conflict) to undermine international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian MoD published videos of FPV drones targeting Ukrainian hexacopters in the DPR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Forces (Internal Security): The rapidly expanding fire in Pushkino, Moscow region, is a significant internal incident. Its cause is not confirmed, but its scale is escalating. Russia's МВД announced a search for the wife of an alleged participant in attacks on military airfields, indicating an internal security response to deep strike operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities:
  • Aerial (Precision Guided Munitions): Sustained and deliberate capability to deliver KABs on civilian targets in Kharkiv to inflict maximum psychological and physical damage. Claimed precision missile strike capability (Ternopil, Kherson). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aerial (Drones): Continued effective use of tactical FPV drones for precision strikes on Ukrainian positions (Kupyansk, Vremevsky directions) and to counter Ukrainian hexacopters. Capability to launch massed attack UAVs (Sumy Oblast threat). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground (Combined Arms/Artillery/Drones): Capability to conduct ground offensives (Sumy, Southern Donetsk axes) and maintain extensive defensive lines (Krasnolimanskoye). Demonstrated ability to integrate drones and artillery for targeted strikes against Ukrainian armor and self-propelled artillery, and to conduct counter-drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Area Denial (Mines): Demonstrated capability to disperse PFM-1 anti-personnel landmines in urban areas using artillery/rockets, posing a persistent threat to civilians and military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare: Highly coordinated and persistent capability to launch and amplify disinformation campaigns, particularly regarding humanitarian issues like POW/body exchanges, aimed at undermining Ukrainian credibility and demoralizing the population. Capable of exploiting internal Western political discourse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Strategic (Long-Range Strikes): Continued capability to conduct deep strikes into Western Ukraine (Ternopil). The animated strike map confirms widespread aerial operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Kharkiv/Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia: Continue to terrorize civilian populations and overwhelm emergency services through indiscriminate aerial attacks. Intent to inflict maximum psychological damage by targeting non-military civilian sites, likely in retaliation for Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Axis: Intent to expand control in Sumy Oblast, likely aiming to create a "buffer zone" and threaten Sumy city, forcing Ukraine to divert resources. The map showing deep territorial control for 07 JUN 25 suggests a long-term aspiration or current operational objective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Southern Donetsk Axis: Intent to continue tactical advances, aiming for localized territorial gains (Komar, Fedorivka). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kupyansk/Vremevsky Directions: Maintain pressure on these axes, degrading Ukrainian armored and artillery capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare: Undermine Ukrainian credibility, sow discord, and present Russia as a responsible actor while blaming Ukraine for failures (e.g., body exchange). Reinforce domestic morale and potentially coerce Ukraine into unfavorable exchanges. Exploiting Western political divisions to weaken support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Security: Attempt to manage internal incidents (Pushkino fire) and actively counter perceived foreign espionage and sabotage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • COA 1 (MLCOA - Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers, Infrastructure, and Deeper Targets, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation): Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, particularly Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia, with an increased focus on civilian targets to maximize terror and drain Ukrainian emergency resources. Concurrently, Russia will conduct retaliatory deep strikes against military or critical infrastructure targets in Western and Central Ukraine (e.g., Ternopil, as seen). This will be accompanied by a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges, blaming Ukraine for delays, and exploiting Western disunity.
    • Confidence: HIGH
    • Indicators: Immediate increase in Kharkiv casualties, explicit targeting of recreational park, ongoing missile/drone threat in Sumy, claimed Ternopil strike, animated strike map showing widespread attacks, coordinated Russian media reports on body exchange, propaganda exploiting Western discord.
  • COA 2 (Ground Offensive Intensification on Sumy and Donetsk Axes, with Integrated Air/Drone Support, Area Denial Tactics, and Enhanced Counter-UAV Measures): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives, particularly on the Sumy axis (advancing towards Sumy city and consolidating claimed gains like Yablonovka and Andreevka) and the Donetsk axis, aiming for tactical breakthroughs. They will continue to integrate air support (KABs), artillery, and FPV drones for targeted strikes against Ukrainian armor and self-propelled artillery, while also actively employing area denial tactics (e.g., PFM-1 mines) and targeting Ukrainian drone operations to facilitate their advances. Defensive actions in border regions will escalate if Ukrainian pressure continues.
    • Confidence: HIGH
    • Indicators: Russian claims of expanding buffer zone in Sumy, Russian ground advances within 20-40km of Sumy and claimed capture of Yablonovka/Andreevka, Russian forces targeting Ukrainian UAV C2 and deployment points/armor, use of PFM-1 mines in urban areas, continued high number of combat engagements on Donetsk axis, claimed advances in Southern Donetsk.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Increased Civilian Casualties as Explicit Objective: The extreme civilian impact in Kharkiv, with 40+ injured and explicit targeting of a children's railway/park, confirms a deliberate tactical shift towards maximizing terror and demoralizing civilians, likely in retaliation for Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Area Denial (PFM-1 Mines) in Urban Areas: The confirmed use of PFM-1 anti-personnel landmines in an urban setting suggests an adaptation to deny areas to civilians and complicate potential Ukrainian counter-operations, even at a high cost in terms of civilian suffering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Targeting Ukrainian Self-Propelled Artillery and Drones: The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian "Bohdana" SPA and the demonstrated Russian FPV drone attacks on Ukrainian hexacopters suggest a focus on neutralizing Ukraine's longer-range artillery capabilities and denying Ukrainian drone reconnaissance/attack capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim of BDA for Bohdana, HIGH for observed drone-on-drone engagements).
• Enhanced Information Operations on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions: The highly coordinated and specific Russian narrative regarding Ukraine refusing bodies, including the release of alleged lists, indicates a sophisticated and morally aggressive information warfare adaptation. The explicit use of Western political figures (Trump/Musk) for propaganda aims to exploit divisions and weaken international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ambitious Territorial Claims/Objectives in Sumy Oblast: The Russian map depicting significant territorial gains deep into Sumy Oblast by 07 JUN 25 suggests a long-term strategic shift or aspirational operational objective, beyond just border skirmishes, indicating an intent to establish a deeper "buffer zone." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Continued high rate of KAB usage, missile launches, and FPV drone operations indicates sustained, though potentially strained, supply chains for these munitions. The claimed Ternopil strike, if confirmed as a successful munitions depot hit, would significantly impact Ukrainian logistics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• The large warehouse fire in Pushkino, affecting PMM (fuel/lubricants) and gas cylinders, escalating to 21,000 sq meters, represents a significant and potentially prolonged localized logistical disruption within the Russian Federation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian propaganda's explicit request for "transport vehicles" suggests potential ongoing logistical deficiencies or a desire to significantly expand transport capabilities at the civilian expense. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - based on propaganda, but consistent with long-standing issues).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2 demonstrates continued ability to coordinate multi-domain strikes (KABs, missiles, tactical drones) across multiple oblasts, including deep rear strikes and border areas. The animated strike map confirms this coordination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian C2 over ground forces appears to be effectively managing offensive operations (Sumy, Southern Donetsk axes) and maintaining hardened defensive lines (Krasnolimanskoye). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• The coordinated, sustained disinformation campaign on the body exchange issue, including high-level MoD statements, highlights effective centralized C2 over information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian C2 over internal security/emergency response is clearly challenged by the scale of the Pushkino fire and the ongoing search for individuals connected to deep strike attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Air Defense: Under severe pressure from continuous KABs and missile threats, particularly in Kharkiv. The continued air alert for Sumy indicates ongoing AD activity and readiness. Zelenskiy's statement about awaiting a US response for AD purchases highlights a critical resource constraint. Munitions expenditure is high. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emergency Services: Severely strained by the constant need to respond to civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Kharkiv (40+ injured, 1 fatality) and potentially in Ternopil (large fire response). Their continued operation despite severe conditions demonstrates high readiness and resilience. The opening of the "Superhumans" Center in Dnipro indicates long-term commitment to care for war-wounded. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drone Operations: Maintain high effectiveness in deep strikes (SBU "Operation Pavutina") and tactical engagements (Ukrainian General Staff video). The use of drones for PSYOPs (e.g., messages on ordnance) indicates adaptability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture in Kharkiv. Actively conducting offensive operations and PSYOPs on the Kursk direction, demonstrating capability to cross the border and apply pressure directly. Zelenskiy's confirmation of 3 Iskander launcher destructions and Su-35 downing indicates successful deep strike and AD capabilities. Actively engaging Russian forces on all axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Operations: Actively countering Russian narratives by immediately reporting on civilian casualties and KAB strikes in Kharkiv, and highlighting deep strike successes. Ukrainian officials are publicly refuting Russian disinformation regarding body exchanges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Confirmed Destruction of 3 Iskander Launchers: Zelenskiy's statement confirms the destruction of three critical Russian ballistic missile launchers, directly impacting their strike capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Confirmed Downing of Su-35: Zelenskiy's confirmation of an Su-35 downing demonstrates continued effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense against advanced Russian combat aircraft. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Continued Deep Strike Capability: SBU's FPV drone strike on Tu-22M3 bomber and the confirmed impact on Kstovo refinery (a modern processing unit) remain major strategic successes, demonstrating unprecedented deep strike capabilities and forcing Russia to divert/relocate high-value assets. Zelenskiy also mentioned "new hits on Russian military logistics, airfields." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Offensive Pressure on Kursk Axis: Ukrainian General Staff video confirms active operations in the Kursk direction, including artillery and drone strikes, indicating a proactive posture to draw Russian reserves and punish cross-border shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • High Interception Rate: Successful neutralization of 174 of 215 aerial targets nationwide (previous report) despite saturation attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Establishment of Rehabilitation Infrastructure: Opening of "Superhumans" Center in Dnipro signals a long-term commitment to supporting wounded personnel and civilians, boosting morale and showcasing resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • Increased Civilian Casualties and Terror: One fatality (head of Children's Railway) and over 40 injured in Kharkiv due to KAB strikes. This is a severe humanitarian setback and a successful Russian psychological operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Russian Claims of Equipment Losses: Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian tanks (Kupyansk) and a "Bohdana" howitzer (Vremevsky) indicate continued losses on the battlefield. Russian FPV drone attacks on Ukrainian hexacopters also contribute to attrition. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claims)
  • Area Denial (PFM-1 Mines): Russian use of PFM-1 anti-personnel landmines in urban areas creates a persistent civilian and military hazard, complicating movement and increasing risk of injury. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Impact: Russian disinformation regarding body exchanges and claiming Ukraine refuses to accept them is gaining traction and could undermine public trust, despite Ukrainian rebuttals. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Potential Logistics Hit: The claimed Russian strike on a Western ammunition bunker in Ternopil, if verified, would represent a significant logistical setback in Western Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim of target, but significant fire observed)
  • Unanswered AD Purchase Request: Zelenskiy's public statement about awaiting a US response on AD purchases highlights a critical unmet need that exacerbates the impact of Russian air attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Munitions & Systems: Continued high expenditure due to persistent aerial attacks, particularly KABs and massed drone assaults. Zelenskiy's public statement confirms the urgent need for additional AD systems (Patriot) and sustained resupply from international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emergency Response Resources: Severe strain on emergency and medical services in Kharkiv due to increased casualties and widespread damage, compounded by response to deep rear incidents like Ternopil fire. Rehabilitation centers, while positive, highlight the significant and ongoing need for long-term medical care. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel and Equipment for Ground Forces: High intensity combat on multiple axes (Donetsk, Sumy, Kupyansk) and ongoing losses will strain personnel and equipment reserves, especially specialized armor and artillery. The threat to Sumy will require significant force allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Mine Clearance Capabilities: Increased Russian use of PFM-1 mines will require specialized mine clearance equipment and personnel to ensure safe passage for civilians and military operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Propaganda (Internal & External):
  • Amplified Body Exchange Disinformation: Maria Zakharova (TASS), Margarita Simonyan, Dnevnik Desantnika, and MoD Deputy Minister Fomin are all coordinating to push the narrative that Ukraine refuses to accept bodies of its fallen, blaming them for delays to avoid compensation. This is a highly aggressive and emotionally charged disinformation campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Highlighting "Successes" and "Buffer Zones": Russian milbloggers (Basurin, Kotenok, Voin DV, Операция Z, Colonelcassad) continue to disseminate content highlighting Russian military efforts, including BDA videos (tank, Bohdana SPA, Ukrainian hexacopters), claimed capture of Yablonovka/Andreevka, and maps claiming tactical gains (Sumy "buffer zone expansion"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Exploiting Internal Western Discord: Russian channels (e.g., Старше Эдды, Kotsnews) are actively exploiting statements by Western political figures (Trump's comments on Musk) and internal US security concerns (Starlink) to create narratives of Western disunity and undermine international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Blaming Ukraine for Attacks: Maria Zakharova stated Kyiv went on "illogical meanness" for refusing bodies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations:
  • Transparency on Russian Atrocities: Ukrainian officials (Zelenskiy, Oleh Syniehubov, Operational ZSU, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration) and media (RBC-Ukraine) are immediately reporting on KAB strikes on civilian areas in Kharkiv, providing real-time video/photo evidence of civilian casualties and damage to children's railway and recreational park. Zelenskiy explicitly frames these as "pure terrorism" and "destruction," not retaliation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Highlighting Strategic and Tactical Successes: SBU's deep strike video on the Tu-22M3 bomber, the General Staff's video showcasing Kursk operations, and Zelenskiy's confirmation of 3 Iskander launcher destructions and Su-35 downing are powerful information operations, demonstrating advanced capabilities, boosting morale, and signaling resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Refuting Disinformation: Ukrainian authorities are consistently refuting Russian claims regarding the body exchange, but the sheer volume of Russian propaganda requires sustained effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Showcasing Resilience and Care: The public opening of the "Superhumans" rehabilitation center in Dnipro provides a powerful counter-narrative of resilience and commitment to its people despite the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Negative Impact: The escalating KAB strikes on Kharkiv, particularly on civilian recreational areas, will severely impact civilian morale due to increased casualties and psychological trauma. The reported fatality of the head of the Children's Railway and the rising injury count amplify this. The use of PFM-1 mines further increases civilian fear and disruption. The proximity of Russian forces to Sumy City and the explicit claims of advancing towards it will generate significant anxiety and potentially displacement among the local population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Positive Impact: The confirmation of the SBU's deep strike on a Tu-22M3 bomber and the visible proactive operations in the Kursk direction are significant morale boosts for Ukrainian forces and the population, demonstrating a concrete ability to strike back at Russian strategic assets and take the fight to Russian territory. Zelenskiy's direct confirmation of Iskander and Su-35 destructions further reinforces this. The opening of "Superhumans" centers will provide a morale boost for wounded personnel and their families, showing tangible support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Warfare Impact: The Russian disinformation campaign regarding body exchanges is highly corrosive and, if not effectively countered, could create distrust and frustration among Ukrainian families awaiting news of their missing, potentially impacting overall societal morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Impact of AD Shortfall: Zelenskiy's public statement about awaiting US response for AD systems may highlight a critical vulnerability, potentially impacting public confidence in the ability to protect against future attacks, while also serving to pressure international partners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Russian disinformation regarding body exchanges could aim to undermine international trust in Ukraine as a negotiating partner. However, the clear and verifiable targeting of civilians in Kharkiv provides a strong counter-narrative, likely solidifying international condemnation of Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• The unprecedented deep strike on a strategic bomber by SBU and the confirmed destruction of Iskander launchers will likely garner significant international attention and may influence future military aid discussions, highlighting Ukraine's innovative asymmetric capabilities and justifying continued support for deep strike platforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian attempts to exploit internal Western divisions (Trump/Musk) aim to weaken the coherence of international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zelenskiy's public appeal for air defense purchases directly addresses international partners, underlining the critical need and potentially pressuring for expedited deliveries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Politico's report on new US sanctions against Russia indicates ongoing international pressure, though concerns about trade partners highlight the complexities of sustained economic warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• MLCOA 1: Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Deeper Targets, with Focus on Psychological Impact and Logistics: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, particularly Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia, with an explicit focus on civilian targets (e.g., parks, residential areas, children's railways) to maximize terror, drain Ukrainian emergency resources, and retaliate for successful Ukrainian deep strikes. Simultaneously, Russia will increase retaliatory deep strikes against military logistics (e.g., ammunition depots, rail lines) and critical infrastructure in Western and Central Ukraine (e.g., Ternopil), aiming to disrupt Ukrainian supply chains and war-making capacity. This will be coupled with continued large-scale disinformation campaigns exploiting humanitarian issues and Western political divisions.

  • Confidence: HIGH
  • Indicators: Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv with rising civilian casualties and targeting of non-military sites, Zelenskiy's confirmed "terror" targeting, claimed Ternopil strike, persistent missile/drone threat in Sumy, animated strike map showing widespread attacks, coordinated Russian body exchange narrative, propaganda exploiting Western discord.

• MLCOA 2: Intensified Ground Offensives on Sumy and Donetsk Axes, with Integrated Air/Drone Support, Enhanced Area Denial Tactics, and Targeted Counter-UAV/Anti-Artillery Measures: Russian forces will press harder on the Sumy axis, attempting to exploit tactical gains (e.g., Yablonovka, Andreevka) and threaten Sumy city, forcing Ukraine to divert significant reserves. They will maintain intense pressure on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar) with heavy KAB/artillery support, and continue efforts in Southern Donetsk (Komar). Russia will increasingly integrate air support (KABs), artillery, and FPV drones, while actively employing PFM-1 anti-personnel mines in contested urban areas and targeting Ukrainian armor, artillery assets (e.g., claimed Bohdana destruction), and tactical drones (e.g., hexacopters) to facilitate their advances. Defensive actions in border regions will escalate if Ukrainian pressure continues.

  • Confidence: HIGH
  • Indicators: Russian claims of expanding buffer zone in Sumy, active advances within 20-40km of Sumy and claimed capture of Yablonovka/Andreevka on Russian maps, use of PFM-1 mines in urban areas, claimed destruction of Ukrainian armor/artillery/drones, continued high number of combat engagements on Donetsk axis, claimed advances in Southern Donetsk (Komar, Fedorivka), established Russian fortifications in Krasnolimanskoye direction and on Sumy axis indicating preparedness.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• MDCOA 1: Strategic Breakthrough on Sumy Axis and Attempted Encirclement/Assault of Sumy City, Supported by Overwhelming Air Dominance and Coordinated Deep Sabotage and Cyber Attacks: Russia commits significant additional reserves to the Sumy axis, executing a rapid, decisive breakthrough aimed at encircling or seizing Sumy city, potentially using overwhelming combined arms force and deep strikes to neutralize Ukrainian command and control and air defenses. This would aim to open a new major operational front, fix a large portion of Ukrainian reserves, and create a significant humanitarian crisis. This would be coupled with intensified cyber attacks and sabotage to disrupt Ukrainian C2 and logistics in critical rear areas, potentially leveraging internal intelligence assets.

  • Confidence: MEDIUM (Increased due to confirmed advances within 20-40km of Sumy, persistent Russian rhetoric of "buffer zone expansion," and the aspirational nature of the Russian map showing deep control by 07 JUN 25).
  • Indicators: Sustained high rate of KABs and missile strikes on deep targets, large-scale troop movements on Sumy axis beyond current levels, confirmed significant increase in Russian EW/cyber activity, intelligence of Russian force restructuring or redeployment from other axes, confirmed arrests/neutralization of Russian intelligence assets within Ukraine.

• MDCOA 2: Sustained and Crippling Strikes on Critical National Infrastructure (Energy, Logistics Hubs, Strategic Aviation) to Collapse Ukrainian Civilian Resilience and War-Making Capacity: Russia launches a coordinated, multi-wave missile and drone campaign targeting Ukraine's remaining energy infrastructure ahead of winter, major logistics hubs (rail, road junctions, especially those for Western aid), and strategic aviation assets (airfields, repair facilities). This would aim to directly cripple Ukraine's ability to sustain military operations and civilian life on a broader scale, potentially exploiting perceived AD munitions shortages or the unmet AD purchase request.

  • Confidence: MEDIUM (Increased due to recent claimed deep strike on Ternopil, the large internal fire in Pushkino, and Zelenskiy's public statement about AD procurement).
  • Indicators: Intensified missile/drone attacks beyond current levels, targeting of energy infrastructure components not previously hit, significant increase in Russian strategic bomber activity.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):

  • Immediate Retaliation/Sustained Attacks: Expect continued, possibly intensified, KAB and missile strikes on Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. High probability of further Russian retaliatory deep strikes following the Tu-22M3 destruction, Kursk operations, and Iskander launcher strikes.
  • Ground Pressure: Continued tactical ground engagements, particularly on the Donetsk and Sumy axes, with Russian efforts to consolidate claimed gains. Increased Russian counter-drone and anti-AD operations, and likely further use of PFM-1 mines.
  • Decision Point (UKR): Prioritize air defense assets to protect key urban centers (Kharkiv, Sumy) and critical infrastructure. Expedite deployment of countermeasures to Russian anti-drone tactics and develop rapid response for mine clearance in urban areas. Reassess ground force posture on the Sumy axis based on updated Russian advances and map intelligence.

• Next 72 Hours (Medium-Term):

  • Decision Point (UKR): Assess the full extent of damage to the Tu-22M3 bomber and the claimed Ternopil ammunition bunker. Evaluate potential for further SBU deep strikes and the necessary resources. Re-evaluate and adapt ground force deployments on the Sumy axis based on continued Russian advances and the scale of the threat to Sumy city, potentially deploying additional reserves. Develop a comprehensive plan for mine clearance and public safety in areas affected by PFM-1 mines. Expedite high-level diplomatic engagement regarding AD systems.

• Next 1 Week (Near-Term Strategic):

  • Decision Point (UKR): Evaluate the overall effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strike campaign on Russian military-industrial complex and logistics, considering both successes and Russian claims of countermeasures. Continue to optimize air defense deployments based on evolving Russian targeting patterns. Intensify intelligence collection on Russian strategic aviation, air defense assets, and potential dispersal efforts. Prioritize resources for the Sumy axis if Russian pressure continues, potentially initiating pre-emptive civilian evacuation planning.

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Reinforce and Optimize Air Defense for Urban Centers and Key Infrastructure (Immediate & Urgent):

   • Action: Immediately re-prioritize and reinforce layered air defense systems (including mobile fire groups with MANPADS for KAB and drone defense) to protect Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia from continued KAB and missile attacks. Deploy active and passive defenses around critical civilian infrastructure like recreational parks, railway stations, and administrative buildings. Expedite diplomatic efforts for the acquisition of additional advanced AD systems (e.g., Patriot).
   • Justification: Russian forces are deliberately escalating attacks on civilian areas to inflict casualties and psychological impact, requiring enhanced immediate protection. The high civilian casualty count in Kharkiv and Zelenskiy's public appeal underscore the urgency.
   • Intelligence Gap: Precise real-time air defense munition expenditure rates in affected areas and inventory levels.
   • Collection Requirement: Automated tracking of AD engagements and munition usage, updated imagery of damaged civilian sites for munition analysis, SIGINT/HUMINT on AD system readiness.

2. Mitigate and Counter Russian Area Denial Tactics (Urgent):

   • Action: Disseminate intelligence on Russian use of PFM-1 anti-personnel landmines in urban areas to all relevant military units and civilian emergency services. Develop and deploy rapid mine clearance capabilities (e.g., remote-controlled vehicles, specialized teams) to affected areas. Initiate immediate public awareness campaigns for civilians on mine hazards and reporting procedures.
   • Justification: The confirmed use of PFM-1 mines poses a persistent threat to civilians and complicates friendly ground operations, requiring specialized countermeasures and public safety initiatives.
   • Intelligence Gap: Specific delivery methods for PFM-1 mines, and precise locations of affected areas, and the extent of contamination.
   • Collection Requirement: HUMINT from local sources, IMINT/OSINT for mine detection, technical analysis of munition remnants.

3. Capitalize on Deep Strike Success and Prepare for Retaliation (Urgent):

   • Action: Conduct rapid, detailed BDA on the Tu-22M3 at Belaya airfield (satellite imagery, OSINT analysis) to confirm damage and operational impact. Publicize the success widely (along with Iskander and Su-35 destructions) to boost morale and demonstrate capability. Simultaneously, prepare for heightened Russian retaliatory strikes across Ukraine, particularly on strategic infrastructure, following the Tu-22M3, Iskander, and claimed Ternopil hits. Disperse high-value assets and reinforce their defenses.
   • Justification: Ukrainian deep strikes are a significant strategic success but will provoke severe retaliation, requiring preemptive defensive measures and effective information operations.
   • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA and long-term operational impact on the Tu-22M3, Iskander launchers, and claimed Ternopil target.
   • Collection Requirement: High-resolution satellite imagery of Belaya airfield, Kursk/Bryansk missile sites, and other Russian airfields/logistics hubs; monitoring Russian strategic aviation movements and activity.

4. Strengthen Defensive Lines and Monitor Russian Intent on the Sumy Axis (Urgent):

   • Action: Immediately reinforce personnel, fortifications (including anti-tank obstacles like dragon's teeth and trenches), and anti-tank capabilities on the Sumy axis, prioritizing areas within 40km of Sumy city and identified Russian avenues of advance (e.g., around Yablonovka, Andreevka). Intensify ISR collection on Russian force composition, strength, and objectives in the area. Advise civilian authorities on potential evacuation routes and shelter options in Sumy City and surrounding settlements. Conduct aggressive counter-battery fire against Russian artillery supporting advances.
   • Justification: Russian claims of an "expanding buffer zone" and confirmed advances (including mapped territorial control) indicate a serious intent to press the Sumy axis, threatening Sumy City.
   • Intelligence Gap: Precise composition and strength of Russian forces on Sumy axis, and their immediate operational objectives and timeline for further advance.
   • Collection Requirement: HUMINT from local sources, SIGINT on Russian communications, IMINT for troop movements and fortifications, cross-referencing Russian map claims with ground truth.

5. Counter Russian Information Operations on Body Exchange and Battlefield Narratives (Ongoing):

   • Action: Proactively and transparently communicate Ukraine's official stance and actions regarding prisoner and body exchanges to both domestic and international audiences, providing verifiable evidence and consistently refuting Russian disinformation. Highlight Russian violations of international law (e.g., use of PFM-1 mines, targeting of civilian areas, confirmed KAB strikes on children's railway) to discredit their humanitarian claims. Actively disseminate content on Ukrainian successes (deep strikes, Kursk operations, Iskander/Su-35 destructions) and Russian atrocities (Kharkiv KABs on civilians) to shape the information environment and counter Russian exploitation of Western political divisions.
   • Justification: Russia is leveraging highly sensitive humanitarian issues and Western internal politics for information warfare, aiming to undermine Ukrainian credibility and international support. Effective counter-narratives are critical.
   • Intelligence Gap: Full scope of Russian information narratives targeting Ukrainian society, and the specific impact of Russian propaganda on Ukrainian public and troop morale.
   • Collection Requirement: Comprehensive monitoring of Russian state media and milblogger channels, and analysis of their messaging tactics and impact.

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END REPORT

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