Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Eastern Front & National) - Mon Apr 21 08:11 UTC 2025
I. Strategic & Air Warfare Developments
Resumption of Hostilities & Ceasefire Status:
Combat operations significantly escalated across the front following the expiration of the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire (00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21). The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) officially announced the resumption of its "special military operation."
Conflicting Narratives:
Russia: Claims strict adherence to the ceasefire. Accuses Ukraine of 4,900 violations, including 90 fixed-wing UAV sorties (8 claimed outside conflict zone), 19 shelling incidents targeting Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts, and resuming offensive actions before ceasefire expiry. Claims UA combat intensity significantly reduced during the pause.
Ukraine: Maintains Russia repeatedly violated its own ceasefire (President Zelenskyy previously cited nearly 3,000 violations in one day; GSh ZSU reported RU violations on Kursk, Siversk, Donetsk axes). Asserts RU utilized the pause for force rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, and engineering preparations (e.g., confirmed Zherebets River crossings). Reports significant escalation in RU shelling/drones after 10:00 Apr 20. RBC-Ukraina notes RU MoD claims contradict Zelenskyy's prior assessment.
Major Russian Air Attack (Night of Apr 20-21 & Morning Apr 21):
Attack Composition (UA AF Report, 09:00 UTC Apr 21 & RU Claims):
2x Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles (from Black Sea airspace, targeting Mykolaiv Oblast - 1 reported towards Baratovka, subsequent 'minus' reported).
96x Strike UAVs (Shahed & Imitator Types): Launched from Russia (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) and occupied Crimea (Gvardeyskoye). RU sources claim Geran/Gerber drone strikes on multiple oblasts. Video claimed to show "Parody" UAV over Dnipro.
RU MoD claims strikes targeted military airfield infrastructure, ammunition/drone depots, and personnel concentrations in 74 areas over 24 hours.
Ukrainian Air Defense Performance:
42 Shahed-type UAVs CONFIRMED INTERCEPTED across Eastern, Northern, Southern, and Central zones.
47 "Imitator Drones" FAILED TO REACH TARGETS / LOCALLY LOST, attributed to Ukrainian EW or potential Russian decoys.
Active Threats: UAV threat reported in Kharkiv Oblast. Hostile tactical aviation activity reported on South-Eastern and North-Eastern directions, threat of air-launched weapons (UA AF). KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Air raid alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
RU tactical aviation remains active along North-Eastern and Eastern axes (KABs, missiles). RU source (Fighterbomber) indicates resumption of intensive air operations post-ceasefire. RU source (Voin DV) shows attack aviation strike footage on "Polozhskom direction" (Orikhiv/Huliaipole).
Russian MoD claims destruction of 104 Ukrainian UAVs in the past 24 hours.
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit, 53rd Mech Bde) claim downing 3 night Orlan UAVs.
Previous Combat Day Summary (Apr 20 - GSh ZSU/Zelenskyy): 96 combat clashes (GSh ZSU); 46 RU assault actions by 16:00 (Zelenskyy). 1882 Russian shelling incidents (GSh ZSU); 901 shellings (448 heavy) by 16:00 (Zelenskyy). 957 Russian kamikaze drones employed (GSh ZSU); >400 FPV uses by 16:00 (Zelenskyy). Ukrainian strikes hit a Russian concentration area and an artillery system.
Historical / Previous Strikes:
Damage confirmed from Apr 16/17 Ukrainian attacks on the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast.
Claimed UA drone unit ("Ptahy Madyara") damaged a Russian Forpost reconnaissance/strike UAV (Apr 20).
Claimed UA deep strike (post-ceasefire) 25-30 km behind LBC near Pisky / Pisky-Karlivka route (Donetsk Obl.), hitting RB-301B Borisoglebsk-2 EW system, trucks, vehicles.
RU MoD claims 10 UA strikes on energy facilities in RU border/occupied areas (Apr 18-19).
RU sources claim UA strike destroyed "Vostochny" bridge in Pokrovsk (Apr 19). (Verify)
UA claimed hit on RU armored train locomotive (Apr 19).
UA drone operators (40th Arty Bde) struck RU personnel in occupied Kherson Oblast (Apr 20).
Russian Strategic Objective Articulation: RU-installed official Saldo stated Kyiv must be denied access to the middle and lower Dnipro River in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts (TASS).
Axis Activity & Claims (Based on GSh ZSU Apr 20/19, OTU Kharkiv Apr 21, RU MoD Apr 21, DeepState Apr 20 & supplementary reports/claims):
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
Apr 20: 39 Russian assaults repelled (GSh ZSU); 20 clashes by 16:00. RU MoD claims up to 80 UA KIA (Apr 20-21). UA OSUV Khortytsia claimed RU retreat near Kotlyne. UA 110th Mech Bde destroyed 9 RU armored units. UA deep strike claimed near Pisky/Karlivka.
Apr 19: 13 RU attacks/attempts. RU claims crossing Kazennyi Torets river, advances towards Malynivka, entered Myrolyubivka. RU claims >350 UA losses.
DeepState Map (Apr 20): RU advance in Sukha Balka area.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
Apr 20: 5 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU); 4 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar, towards Stupochky & Bila Hora (GSh ZSU 16:00).
RU Assessment (Arkangel Spetsnaza, Apr 21): Claims RU occupies most of Chasiv Yar (cleared Novoseverny/Zapadny districts), ongoing fighting in Shevchenko, Levanevskogo, Zavodskoy districts. Acknowledges difficult urban terrain, significant hindrance from UA drones (names 427th "Rarog" BPS Regt). Assesses UA retains counter-attack capability.
Toretsk Axis:
Apr 20: 10 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU). CRITICAL: Ukrainian soldiers confirmed KIA in RU ambush during ceasefire. RU source (Slivochniy Kapriz, Apr 21) claims over 800m advance within Dachne settlement near Horlivka (Geoloc: 48.43004, 37.87516). RU MoD claims up to 45 UA KIA, 1 Kazak MRAP, 2 artillery pieces (Apr 20-21).
Apr 19: 9 RU attacks repelled. RU claims liberation of Shevchenko district (Kalynove). CRITICAL CLAIM: Alleged RU use of poisonous gas/chemical agent via drones (Apr 19 - Verify).
DeepState Map (Apr 20): RU advance in Sukha Balka area.
Lyman Axis:
Apr 20: 12 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU). Confirmed RU engineering work on Zherebets River crossings during ceasefire; RU simultaneously attacked other positions of UA 66th Bde.
Apr 21 RU Claim (Slivochny Kapriz): RU expanded control zone S of Yampolivka by 1.5km, occupied new positions towards Torske (Geoloc: 49.05107, 37.96472).
DeepState Map (Apr 20): RU advance near Novyi.
Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):
Apr 20: 5 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU). RU MoD claims over 25 UA KIA, 1 APC, 1 vehicle (Apr 20-21). Russian sources report capture of US-supplied MaxxPro MRAP by 37th Gds MRB.
Apr 19: 7 RU attacks repelled. UA claims RU ordered to reach admin border by May 9, high RU losses Apr 1-18. RU claims >130 UA losses.
DeepState Map (Apr 20): RU occupied Katerynivka and advanced near Preobrazhenka.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Apr 20: 4 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU). RU MoD claims up to 10 UA KIA, 1 EW station, 1 AN/TPQ-36 radar (Apr 20-21). RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 21) describe intense fighting post-ceasefire, high activity of UA FPV drones impacting RU logistics/resupply, RU use of Mavic drones for forward group resupply, massive UA arty/FPV strikes since dawn Apr 21. RU fundraising appeal for night vision for artillery units (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 21).
Apr 19: 3 RU attacks repelled.
Kharkiv Axis:
Apr 21 Report (OTU "Kharkiv", 09:00): Situation complex but stable. Past 24 hours: RU employed 41 kamikaze drones, conducted 184 shellings. 1 Russian attack repelled near Krasne Pershe. Claimed RU losses: 44 personnel (26 KIA), 35 UAVs, 5 vehicles destroyed/damaged; 24 RU shelters and 1 ammo storage destroyed.
Siversk Axis:
Apr 20: 3 Russian attempts repelled (GSh ZSU).
Kupyansk Axis:
Apr 20: 1 Russian attack repelled (GSh ZSU). RU MoD claims up to 30 UA KIA (Apr 20-21).
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson):
Apr 20: No Russian ground offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU). Continued Russian shelling/drones. Explosions reported in Kherson early Apr 21; Onyx missile targeted the region. RU MoD claims up to 10 UA KIA (Apr 20-21).
RUSSIAN CLAIM (Apr 21): Strike early Apr 21 destroyed a buried Ukrainian Command Post in Chornobaivka, alleging up to 20 UA officer casualties including one British national. (Requires Verification). RU sources claim UA forces actively targeting civilian objects with artillery post-ceasefire.
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Area:
Apr 20 (UA Actions): GSh ZSU reported stopping 16 Russian assaults; UA DShV captured 9 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast (Confirmed Apr 21).
Apr 20/21 (RU Claims): Multiple UA border crossing attempts repelled near Popovka, Demidovka, Hoptarivka (Belgorod) and Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod). Active fighting continues near Hornal, Oleshnia (Kursk). Claims RU conducted demining (12,797 items), civilian evacuation, UA body recovery near Sudzha (Kursk) during ceasefire, allegedly under UA fire near Huyevo/Nikolayevo-Daryino. Claims UA FPV attack on Nechayevka (Belgorod) wounded 2 children and 1 woman (Verify). Claims >20 UA heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") downed near Volchansk/Lyptsi. RU MoD claims up to 20 UA KIA and 1 artillery piece destroyed on Belgorod direction (Apr 20-21). RU MoD claims repelling 6 UA ground attacks during ceasefire across front, including Oleshnia (Kursk).
Apr 19: RU claimed liberation of Oleshnia (Kursk). UA confirmed territory loss in Kursk Oblast.
III. Naval Situation
Black Sea: 1 Russian warship active (Kalibr carrier, potential salvo up to 6 missiles). Missile threat remains.
Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships active.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships active (Both Kalibr carriers, total potential salvo up to 12 missiles).
Kerch Strait: Maritime traffic noted; Russia continues disabling AIS. Planned closure May 8-10.
IV. Counter-Intelligence & Security
Chernihiv Oblast: SBU detained local woman accused of high treason (allegedly recruited Mar 2025 by FSB, surveilled military unit/trains).
Occupied Crimea: FSB detained resident accused of transmitting data on military objects (airfield, AD, railways, Foros Park defenses) to SBU (confirmed by RU sources Apr 21). Russian sources released interrogation video.
V. Logistics, Capabilities & Needs
Ukrainian:
Logistics: Delivery of 10 minibuses (via Come Back Alive fund) to 5 Air Force/Naval Aviation brigades (299th, 40th, 114th, 204th Tac Av Bdes, 10th Naval Av Bde). Aid delivery reported Zaporizhzhia (Apr 19: 500+ drones, EW/comms). Needs identified: EW (24th Aidar), Mavic 3 drones (114th TDF). Counter-drone training (small arms) ongoing (58th Motorized Bde).
Vulnerability: Record low gas storage reported (0.66 bcm usable).
Capabilities: Effective drone use (FPV, deep strike near Pisky). Fiber-optic guided drones noted by RU sources. Successful AD against Shaheds. Downed Orlan recon drones.
Russian:
Logistics/Needs: Identified need for night vision for artillery (Zaporizhzhia). Fundraising appeals ongoing (Zaporizhzhia VDV, 3rd CAA on Bakhmut/Siversk directions). Mavics used for forward troop water resupply. Reported difficulties in coal industry impacting rail transport. Potential reliance on German chromium imports reported.
Capabilities: High volume air/drone attacks. Adapting Shaheds for recon/strike coordination. Claimed use of "Molniya" fixed-wing FPV. EW systems ("Perekhvat 2.0" showcased). Anti-drone cages fitted to NK MLRS. Remote mining systems used.
VI. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Civilian Impact: Post-ceasefire escalation caused damage/impacts in Kivsharivka (Kharkiv), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast communities, Cherkasy Oblast. Previous impacts (Apr 18-20): Kharkiv (1 KIA, ~120 affected), Kherson (1 KIA, 3 KIA/3 WIA Apr 20), Kupyansk (5 WIA). Confirmed attack on marked "Proliska" humanitarian vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area) by RU FPV drone during ceasefire (Apr 20), wounding occupants (LOAC violation).
Russian Claims: 3 civilians WIA (incl. 2 children) from alleged UA FPV strike in Nechayevka, Belgorod Oblast (Apr 20 - Verify). Child injured by mine explosion in Belgorod Oblast (Apr 20).
Ceasefire Violations: Confirmed Ukrainian KIA in RU ambush on Toretsk axis during ceasefire (Apr 20). Widespread violations by RU reported by UA; RU claims mass UA violations.
POWs/Fallen:Successful 246-for-246 POW exchange confirmed during ceasefire (plus 31 heavily wounded UA, 15 RU). 9 Russian POWs captured by UA DShV in Kursk Oblast (Apr 20). Zaporizhzhia OVA highlights support efforts for 32 returned POWs from the region.
VII. Information Operations & Other Developments
Russian Narratives: Blaming Ukraine for ceasefire failure (citing 4,900 alleged violations). Disseminating claims of RU adherence to ceasefire. Highlighting captured equipment (MaxxPro MRAP). Promoting EW capabilities ("Perekhvat 2.0"). Framing strategic objectives (Dnipro River control). Continued fundraising appeals indicating equipment needs.
Geopolitical Context: Ongoing discussion of potential US-proposed peace framework. US Special Envoy Kellogg confirmed US proposal presented; stated Ukraine will not join NATO. China warns countries against deals with US potentially harming Chinese interests. Reports of US beginning phased withdrawal from Syria. Russia-Mali economic cooperation talks held. NATO ISR aircraft active near Kaliningrad.
Internal Russian Issues: Report of deaths of 2 RU soldiers (conscript, contract) in Leningrad Oblast military unit. Discussion on border security relating to migrants from Central Asia. Psychiatrist convicted of prisoner abuse reportedly volunteers for front. News of Pope Francis' death reported widely.
