Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Eastern Front & National) - Mon Apr 21 07:41 UTC 2025
I. Strategic & Air Warfare Developments
Resumption of Hostilities & Ceasefire Violations: Combat operations significantly escalated across the front immediately following the expiration of the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire (00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21).
Russian Position: The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) officially announced the resumption of its "special military operation." It claims Russian forces strictly adhered to the ceasefire, remaining in position, while accusing Ukrainian forces of 4,900 ceasefire violations. Specific RU allegations include 90 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAV sorties (8 claimed outside the conflict zone) and 19 shelling incidents targeting Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts during the pause. RU sources allege Ukrainian forces resumed tank, artillery, and FPV drone activity on several axes before the official ceasefire expiration (evening Apr 20).
Ukrainian Position: Ukrainian officials maintain Russia violated its own declared ceasefire numerous times (President Zelenskyy previously cited nearly 3,000 violations in one day). Ukraine reports RU utilized the operational pause for force rotation, resupply, fortification improvements, mining, and engineering preparations (e.g., Zherebets River crossings).
Major Russian Air Attack (Night of Apr 20-21):
Attack Composition (UA AF Report, 09:00 UTC Apr 21):
96x Strike UAVs (Shahed & Imitator Types): Launched from Russia (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) and occupied Crimea (Gvardeyskoye).
Ukrainian Air Defense Performance:
42 Shahed-type UAVs CONFIRMED INTERCEPTED across Eastern, Northern, Southern, and Central zones.
47 "Imitator Drones" FAILED TO REACH TARGETS / LOCALLY LOST, attributed to Ukrainian EW or potential Russian decoys. No negative consequences reported.
Active Threats (07:41 UTC): UAV threat reported in Kharkiv Oblast. Hostile tactical aviation activity reported on the South-Eastern direction, posing a threat of air-launched weapons (UA AF). Air raid alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Russian tactical aviation remains active along North-Eastern and Eastern axes (KABs, missiles).
Russian MoD claims strikes over the past 24 hours targeted military airfield infrastructure, ammunition/drone depots, and personnel concentrations in 74 areas.
Russian MoD claims destruction of 104 Ukrainian UAVs in the past 24 hours.
Previous Combat Day Summary (Apr 20 - GSh ZSU): 96 combat clashes, 1882 Russian shelling incidents (33 MLRS), 957 Russian kamikaze drones employed. Ukrainian strikes hit a Russian concentration area and an artillery system.
Confirmed Ukrainian Strike (Historical): Damage confirmed from Apr 16/17 Ukrainian attacks on the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast (arms depot, barracks, HQ).
Claimed Ukrainian Drone Strike (Apr 20): UA drone unit ("Ptahy Madyara") claimed damaging a Russian Forpost reconnaissance/strike UAV ($7m value), which reportedly landed behind Russian lines.
Claimed Ukrainian Deep Strike (Post-Ceasefire): Video released claiming successful UA drone strikes 25-30 km behind LBC near Pisky / Pisky-Karlivka route (Donetsk Obl.), hitting RB-301B Borisoglebsk-2 EW system, trucks, vehicles.
Russian Strategic Objective Articulation: RU-installed official Saldo stated Kyiv must be denied access to the middle and lower Dnipro River in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts to remove strategic leverage (TASS).
Axis Activity & Claims (Based on GSh ZSU Apr 20, OTU Kharkiv Apr 21, RU MoD Apr 21 & supplementary reports):
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 39 Russian assaults repelled (Apr 20). RU sources acknowledge UA drone impact. RU MoD claims up to 80 UA KIA (Apr 20-21). Ukrainian deep strikes claimed near Pisky/Karlivka.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): 5 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 20). RU sources (Arkangel Spetsnaza) claim RU forces occupy most of the city, having cleared Novoseverny/Zapadny districts, with ongoing fighting in Shevchenko, Levanevskogo, and central Zavodskoy districts. RU acknowledges difficult urban terrain and significant hindrance from UA drone units (specifically mentioning 427th "Rarog" BPS Regt). RU sources assess UA retains counter-attack capability. RU highlights Chasiv Yar's strategic importance for potential advance on the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka-Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
Toretsk Axis: 10 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 20). RU source (Slivochniy Kapriz) claims over 800m advance within Dachne settlement near Horlivka. RU source (Arkangel Spetsnaza) claims UA forces resumed tank (direct fire), artillery, and FPV activity on the evening of Apr 20. RU MoD claims up to 45 UA KIA, 1 Kazak MRAP, 2 artillery pieces (Apr 20-21).
Lyman Axis: 12 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 20). Confirmed RU engineering work on Zherebets River crossings during ceasefire.
Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk): 5 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 20). RU MoD claims over 25 UA KIA, 1 APC, 1 vehicle (Apr 20-21). Russian sources report capture of a US-supplied MaxxPro MRAP by 37th Gds MRB.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 4 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 20). RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) describe intense fighting, high activity of UA FPV drones impacting RU logistics/resupply, and RU use of Mavic drones for forward group resupply. RU MoD claims up to 10 UA KIA, 1 EW station, 1 AN/TPQ-36 radar (Apr 20-21). RU sources claim attack aviation strikes (Voin DV) and request night vision devices for artillery units (Voenkor Kotenok).
Kharkiv Axis:1 Russian attack repelled near Krasne Pershe (Apr 20, confirmed by OTU Kharkiv Apr 21). OTU "Kharkiv" Report (Apr 21, 09:00): Situation complex but stable. Over past 24 hours, RU employed 41 kamikaze drones, conducted 184 shellings. Claimed RU losses: 44 personnel (26 KIA), 35 UAVs, 5 vehicles destroyed/damaged; 24 RU shelters and 1 ammo storage destroyed.
Kupyansk Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled (Apr 20). RU MoD claims up to 30 UA KIA (Apr 20-21).
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No Russian ground offensive actions reported (Apr 20). Continued Russian shelling/drones. Explosions reported in Kherson early Apr 21; Onyx missile targeted the region. RU MoD claims up to 10 UA KIA (Apr 20-21).
RUSSIAN CLAIM: Strike early Apr 21 destroyed a buried Ukrainian Command Post in Chornobaivka, alleging up to 20 UA officer casualties including one British national. (Requires Verification). RU sources claim UA forces actively targeting civilian objects with artillery post-ceasefire.
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Area:
Ukrainian Actions (Apr 20): GSh ZSU reported stopping 16 Russian assaults; DShV captured 9 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast.
Russian Activity/Claims (During/Post Ceasefire):
RU MoD claims 19 UA shelling incidents during ceasefire.
RU sources (WarriorOfNorth via Colonelcassad) claim multiple UA border crossing attempts repelled during/after ceasefire near Popovka, Demidovka, Hoptarivka (Belgorod Oblast) and in Krasnoyaruzhsky district. Claim active fighting continues near Hornal, Oleshnia (Kursk).
Claims RU forces conducted demining (12,797 items claimed cleared), civilian evacuation, and UA body recovery near Sudzha (Kursk) during ceasefire, allegedly coming under UA FPV/artillery fire near Huyevo/Nikolayevo-Daryino.
Claims UA FPV attack on Nechayevka (Belgorod) wounded 2 children and 1 woman.
Claims >20 UA heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") downed near Volchansk/Lyptsi (Kharkiv border).
RU MoD claims up to 20 UA KIA and 1 artillery piece destroyed on Belgorod direction (Apr 20-21).
III. Naval Situation
Black Sea: 1 Russian warship active (Kalibr carrier, potential salvo up to 6 missiles). Missile threat remains.
Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships active.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships active (Both Kalibr carriers, total potential salvo up to 12 missiles).
Kerch Strait: Maritime traffic noted; Russia continues disabling AIS.
IV. Counter-Intelligence & Security
Chernihiv Oblast: SBU detained local woman accused of high treason (recruited Mar 2025 by FSB). Allegedly surveilled military unit location and deployed phone near railway for real-time monitoring of military trains.
Occupied Crimea: FSB detained resident accused of transmitting data on military objects (airfield, AD, railways, Foros Park defenses) to SBU. Russian sources released interrogation video.
V. Information Operations & Other Developments
Russian Narratives: Blaming Ukraine for ceasefire failure (citing 4,900 alleged violations). Disseminating claims of RU adherence to ceasefire. Highlighting captured equipment (MaxxPro MRAP). Promoting EW capabilities ("Perekhvat 2.0"). Framing strategic objectives (Dnipro River control). Continued fundraising appeals indicating equipment needs (drones, comms, night vision).
Geopolitical Context: Ongoing discussion of potential US-proposed peace framework (reported elements: Crimea status, NATO aspirations freeze, ZNPP neutrality under US control). US Special Envoy Kellogg confirmed US proposal presented. China warns countries against deals with US potentially harming Chinese interests.
Humanitarian & Ethical: Civilian impacts from post-ceasefire escalation (Kharkiv, Dnipro, Cherkasy Oblasts damaged; 3 KIA, 3 WIA in Kherson Apr 20; claimed 3 WIA in Nechayevka, Belgorod Oblast). Successful 246-for-246 POW exchange conducted during ceasefire. 9 Russian POWs captured by UA DShV in Kursk Oblast.
Internal Russian Issues: Report of deaths of 2 RU soldiers (conscript, contract) in Leningrad Oblast military unit, potentially indicating morale/discipline issues. Discussion on border security relating to migrants from Central Asia.
