Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Eastern Front & National) - Mon Apr 21 07:11 UTC 2025
I. Strategic & Air Warfare Developments
Intensification Post-Ceasefire: Combat operations across the front significantly escalated immediately following the expiration of the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire (00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21). Intelligence indicates Russia utilized the operational pause for force rotation, resupply, fortification improvements, mining operations, and engineering preparations, including confirmed work on Zherebets River crossings on the Kupyansk/Lyman axis.
Major Russian Air Attack (Night of Apr 20-21):
Attack Composition (UA AF Report, 09:00 UTC Apr 21):
1x Onyx anti-ship cruise missile launched from Crimea, targeting Kherson Oblast.
2x Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles launched from Black Sea airspace, targeting Mykolaiv Oblast.
96x Strike UAVs (Shahed & Imitator Types): Launched from multiple locations in Russia (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) and occupied Crimea (Gvardeyskoye).
Ukrainian Air Defense Performance:
42 Shahed-type UAVs CONFIRMED INTERCEPTED by Air Defense, Mobile Fire Groups, and EW units across Eastern, Northern, Southern, and Central operational zones.
47 "Imitator Drones" FAILED TO REACH TARGETS / LOCALLY LOST, attributed to effective Ukrainian Electronic Warfare (EW) countermeasures or potential Russian use of decoys. No negative consequences reported from these.
Missile Interceptions: 0/3 missiles intercepted.
Confirmed Impacts & Damage:
Kharkiv Oblast: Damage confirmed. Kivsharivka (Kupyansk dist.): Significant fire in a residential building (36 apartments affected) caused by Shahed impact. Khotimlya (Chuhuiv dist.): "Molniya" UAV damaged civilian truck/crane. Kupyansk City: MLRS strikes resulted in fires (garage, car, residential roofs).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Damage confirmed. Impacts caused fires and damage in Pidhorodnenska community (dacha damaged), Pavlohrad (fire at food enterprise), Mezhivska community (infrastructure hit by FPV drone), Novopavlivska community (hit by KABs). Artillery strike on Marhanets. No preliminary casualties reported.
Cherkasy Oblast: Infrastructure object reported damaged by UAV attack. No residential property damage reported.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Targeted by 2x Kh-31P missiles. Missile attack confirmed on Mykolaiv City (morning Apr 21), but no casualties or damage reported per local authorities.
Kherson Oblast: Targeted by Onyx missile. Explosions reported in Kherson city earlier (~04:29 UTC). SDF South reported 3 civilians KIA, 3 WIA in the oblast due to Russian actions on Apr 20.
Ongoing Air & Missile Threats:
Russian tactical aviation remains active along North-Eastern and Eastern axes, posing a persistent threat of air strikes (KABs, missiles) to frontline regions. KAB strikes confirmed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 20/21).
Russian sources confirm the use of Tactical Aviation and smaller drones in overnight strikes.
Previous Combat Day Summary (Apr 20 - GSh ZSU):96 combat clashes registered. Russia conducted 1882 shelling incidents (including 33 MLRS barrages) and employed 957 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian forces executed strikes against a Russian concentration area and an artillery system.
Confirmed Ukrainian Strike (Historical): Reports verify damage resulting from Ukrainian attacks on April 16/17 targeting the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast. Damage assessment includes an arms storage depot, barracks roof, and headquarters building. This unit was previously linked by Ukraine to the Apr 13 Iskander-M/KN-23 strike on Sumy.
Claimed Ukrainian Drone Strike (Apr 20 - Butusov/Madyar): Ukrainian drone unit ("Ptahy Madyara") claimed a successful strike on a Russian Forpost reconnaissance/strike UAV (estimated value $7m), capable of carrying KABs/missiles. The damaged drone reportedly landed behind Russian lines.
Claimed Ukrainian Deep Strike (Post-Ceasefire - Butusov Plus / Ivan Franko Group): Video evidence released claiming successful Ukrainian drone strikes 25-30 km behind the Line of Battle Contact (LBC) near Pisky and along the Pisky-Karlivka logistics route (Donetsk Oblast). Targeted assets reportedly include a valuable RB-301B Borisoglebsk-2 Electronic Warfare system, multiple Ural trucks, UAZ van, Niva pickup, STS Akhmat armored vehicle, and a quad bike.
II. Frontline Situation
Overall Intensity: High-intensity combat operations resumed immediately following the ceasefire expiration, continuing the trend from Apr 20. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure across multiple axes using combined arms tactics (ground assaults, artillery, air power, drones). Ukrainian forces continue defensive operations.
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):39 Russian assaults repelled on Apr 20 across numerous settlements (Sukha Balka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, etc.). Russian sources acknowledge the significant disruptive impact of Ukrainian drone operations on their advances. Ukrainian deep strikes claimed near Pisky/Karlivka (see Section I).
Lyman Axis:12 Russian attacks repelled on Apr 20 (Nadiia, Hrekivka, Yampolivka, etc.). Confirmed Russian engineering preparations for Zherebets River crossings during the ceasefire.
Toretsk Axis:10 Russian attacks repelled on Apr 20 (Druzhba, Toretsk, Leonidivka). Persistent Ukrainian source claims of alleged Russian chemical agent use via drones require verification.
Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):5 Russian attacks repelled on Apr 20 (Kostyantynopil, Skudne, Odradne). Russian sources claim advances towards Bohatyr. Russian sources report capture of a US-supplied MaxxPro MRAP by 37th Gds MRB.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):5 Russian attacks repelled on Apr 20 (near Chasiv Yar, towards Stupochky, Bila Hora).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):4 Russian attacks repelled on Apr 20 (Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove). Russian sources report continued intense fighting, high UA FPV activity, and challenges for RU logistics/resupply due to UA drone interdiction. RU fundraising appeals highlight needs for drones/comms for VDV units operating here.
Siversk Axis:3 Russian attempts repelled on Apr 20 (Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dar'ivka).
Kupyansk Axis:1 Russian attack repelled on Apr 20 (Holubivka). RU engineering work on Zherebets River crossings is relevant to this axis.
Kharkiv Axis:1 Russian attack repelled on Apr 20 (Krasne Pershe).
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No Russian ground offensive actions reported on Apr 20. Continued Russian shelling and drone strikes. 3 civilians KIA, 3 WIA reported for Apr 20. Ukrainian forces claimed destruction of 6 RU boats (Apr 20). Explosions reported in Kherson city early Apr 21; region targeted by Onyx missile.
RUSSIAN CLAIM: Significant strike early Apr 21 destroyed a buried, high-tech Ukrainian Command Post in Chornobaivka, alleging up to 20 UA officer casualties including one British national. (Requires Verification).
Kursk Border Area:
Ukrainian Actions: GSh ZSU reported stopping 16 Russian assault actions on Apr 20. Ukrainian DShV (Air Assault Forces) captured 9 Russian soldiers operating within Kursk Oblast.
Russian Activity: Conducted 184 shelling incidents (17 MLRS) on Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). Russian sources confirm the capture of Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) on Apr 19, claiming it opens a route towards Yunakovka (Sumy Oblast). Continued fighting reported near Hornal, claimed by RU sources as the last UA-controlled settlement in Kursk.
Belgorod Border Area: Russian sources claim repelling several Ukrainian infiltration attempts (Apr 20). Fighting reported ongoing near Popovka and Demidovka.
III. Naval Situation
Black Sea:1 Russian warship reported active (Kalibr missile carrier, potential salvo up to 6 missiles). Missile threat remains.
Sea of Azov:Zero Russian warships reported active.
Mediterranean Sea:2 Russian warships active (Both Kalibr carriers, total potential salvo up to 12 missiles).
Kerch Strait: Maritime traffic noted; Russia continues to disable AIS on vessels transiting the strait (violation of SOLAS convention).
IV. Counter-Intelligence & Security
Chernihiv Oblast: SBU and Prosecutor's Office detained a local woman accused of high treason. Allegedly recruited by Russian FSB (Mar 2025), she conducted reconnaissance of a military unit and deployed a phone with remote access capabilities near railway tracks for real-time monitoring of military movements.
Occupied Crimea: Russian FSB detained a resident accused of transmitting data on military objects (including airfield activity, air defense systems, railway movements, and defensive positions in Foros Park) to the SBU.
V. Information Operations & Other Developments
Russian Narratives: Continued attempts to blame Ukraine/West for ceasefire failure. Dissemination of unverified claims, such as Ukrainian use of nerve agent-coated drones (highly likely disinformation). Narrative framing the West using Ukraine as a drone warfare testbed.
Geopolitical Context: Ongoing discussions surrounding a potential US-proposed framework for negotiations, reportedly involving concessions on Crimea, Ukraine's NATO aspirations, and ZNPP status. US Special Envoy Kellogg confirmed elements of a US proposal were presented. China issued warnings against countries making deals with the US that could harm Chinese interests, potentially related to trade/tariffs.
Humanitarian & Ethical: Immediate escalation following ceasefire failure led to civilian impacts (damage in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Cherkasy Oblasts; 3 KIA, 3 WIA in Kherson Apr 20). Confirmed successful 246-for-246 Prisoner of War exchange conducted during the ceasefire period. Ukrainian forces captured 9 Russian POWs in Kursk Oblast.
