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Situation Report

2025-04-21 06:42:33Z
Previous Report (2025-04-21 06:12:45Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Eastern Front & National) - Mon Apr 21 06:41 UTC 2025

I. Strategic & Air Warfare Developments

  • Post-Ceasefire Escalation: Combat operations intensified immediately following the expiration of the declared Russian ceasefire (00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21). Ukraine reports Russia exploited the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, and engineering preparations, including confirmed work on Zherebets River crossings (Kupyansk/Lyman axis).
  • Large-Scale Russian Air Attack (Overnight Apr 20-21):
    • Composition (UA AF Report, 09:00 UTC Apr 21):
      • 1x Onyx anti-ship cruise missile (Launched from Crimea towards Kherson Oblast).
      • 2x Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles (Launched from Black Sea airspace towards Mykolaiv Oblast).
      • 96x Strike UAVs (Shahed & Imitator Types): Launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia) & Gvardeyskoye (Crimea).
    • Ukrainian Air Defense Results:
      • 42 Shahed-type UAVs CONFIRMED SHOT DOWN across Eastern, Northern, Southern, and Central Ukraine.
      • 47 "Imitator Drones" FAILED/LOCALLY LOST without negative consequences reported, suggesting effective Ukrainian Electronic Warfare (EW), countermeasures, or use of decoys by Russia.
      • Regional Interception Claims: Dnipropetrovsk ODA (7 UAVs downed), Cherkasy ODA (8 UAVs downed), SDF South (2 Shahed-136 downed).
    • Confirmed Impacts & Damage:
      • Kharkiv Oblast: Damage reported. Kivsharivka (Kupyansk dist): Major fire in residential building (36 apartments burned) from Shahed. Khotimlya (Chuhuiv dist): "Molniya" UAV damaged truck/crane. Kupyansk City: MLRS strikes caused fires (garage, car, house roofs).
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Damage confirmed. Strikes caused fires/damage in Pidhorodnenska community (dacha damaged), Pavlohrad (food enterprise fire), Mezhivska community (infrastructure hit by FPV), Novopavlivska community (hit by KABs). Marhanets hit by artillery. No preliminary casualties reported.
      • Cherkasy Oblast: Infrastructure object damaged by UAV attack. No property damage reported.
      • Mykolaiv Oblast: Targeted by 2x Kh-31P missiles. Missile attack confirmed on Mykolaiv City (morning Apr 21), no casualties or damage reported (Mayor).
      • Kherson Oblast: Targeted by Onyx missile. Explosions reported earlier in Kherson city (~04:29 UTC). SDF South reports 3 civilians KIA, 3 WIA in the oblast due to Russian aggression on Apr 20.
  • Ongoing Air Threats:
    • Missile Threat: Alert active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (~05:13 UTC).
    • Tactical Aviation: Russian tactical aviation remains active on North-Eastern and Eastern directions, posing a high risk of air strikes (KABs, missiles) to frontline oblasts. KAB strikes confirmed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian sources confirm TacAir/small drones used in overnight strikes.
  • Previous Day Activity (Apr 20 - GSh ZSU): 96 combat clashes occurred. Russia conducted 1882 shelling incidents (33 MLRS) and utilized 957 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian concentration area and an artillery system.
  • Ukrainian Strike Confirmation (Older Event - ASTRA): Reports confirm damage from Ukrainian attacks on April 16/17 targeting the Russian 112th Guards Missile Brigade base in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast. Damage reported to an arms storage depot, barracks roof, and headquarters building. This brigade was previously accused by Ukraine of conducting the April 13 Iskander-M/KN-23 strike on Sumy (which resulted in 35 KIA).
  • Ukrainian Drone Strike Claim (Apr 20 - Butusov/Madyar): UA drone unit ("Ptahy Madyara") claims successful hit on a Russian Forpost UAV (recon/strike, KAB/missile carrier, est. value $7m). Damaged drone reportedly landed behind Russian lines.

II. Frontline Situation

  • Overall Intensity: High intensity across Eastern and Southern fronts continued through Apr 20. Russian forces maintained offensive pressure using ground assaults, artillery, air power, and drones. Ukrainian forces conducted defensive operations.
  • Axis Activity Summary (Based on GSh ZSU reporting for Apr 20):
    • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 39 Russian assaults repelled across numerous settlements including Sukha Balka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka. Russian sources acknowledge significant impact of Ukrainian drones hindering Russian advances.
    • Lyman Axis: 12 Russian attacks repelled near Nadiia, Hrekivka, Yampolivka, etc. Russian engineering units confirmed preparing Zherebets River crossings during the ceasefire.
    • Toretsk Axis: 10 Russian attacks repelled near Druzhba, Toretsk, Leonidivka.
    • Novopavlivsk Axis: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Skudne, Odradne. Russian sources claim advances towards Bohatyr.
    • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): 5 Russian attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards Stupochky, Bila Hora.
    • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 4 Russian attacks repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove. Russian sources report continued fighting.
    • Siversk Axis: 3 Russian attempts repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dar'ivka.
    • Kupyansk Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled near Holubivka. Zherebets River crossing preparations relevant.
    • Kharkiv Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled near Krasne Pershe.
    • Huliaipole Axis: No clashes reported Apr 20.
    • Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No ground clashes reported Apr 20. Continued Russian shelling/drone strikes. 3 civilians KIA, 3 WIA reported Apr 20. UA forces claim destruction of 6 RU boats. Explosions reported in Kherson city early Apr 21; region targeted by Onyx missile.
  • Kursk Border Area:
    • Ukrainian Actions: GSh ZSU reports stopping 16 Russian assault actions on Apr 20. NEW: UA DShV (Air Assault Forces) captured 9 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast.
    • Russian Activity: Conducted 184 shelling incidents (17 MLRS) on Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). Russian sources claim continued offensive efforts towards Sumy Oblast.
  • Belgorod Border Area: Russian sources claim repelling several Ukrainian infiltration attempts over the past day. Fighting reported ongoing near Popovka and Demidovka.

III. Naval Situation

  • Black Sea: 1 Russian warship active (Kalibr carrier, potential salvo up to 6 missiles).
  • Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships reported.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships active (Both Kalibr carriers, total potential salvo up to 12 missiles).
  • Kerch Strait: Traffic noted; Russia continues disabling AIS (violating SOLAS).

IV. Information Operations & Other Developments

  • Russian Narratives & Disinformation:
    • Continued efforts to blame Ukraine/West for ceasefire failure.
    • NEW (Unverified Claim - Dnevnik Desantnika): Allegation surfaced from Russian sources claiming Ukrainian forces are using heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") coated with a nerve agent. This claim is unverified and highly likely to be disinformation.
    • NEW Narrative (TASS): Russian military expert claims the West uses Ukraine as a large-scale testing ground for drone warfare.
    • NEW Narrative (ISW Assessment via RBC-Ukraina): ISW assesses Kremlin is militarizing Russian society for potential long-term confrontation with West/Europe.
    • NEW IO (RVvoenkor): Allegations of drunk Ukrainian soldiers causing an incident in Udy, Kharkiv Oblast.
    • Promotion of Russian Pacific Fleet history (Voin DV).
    • Advertising Russian-made protective gear (body armor, anti-thermal ponchos/covers, vehicle armor) likely to counter Ukrainian drone/thermal capabilities (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Geopolitical Developments:
    • US Proposal Framework (WSJ Report): Ongoing discussion regarding potential framework involving Crimea recognition, no NATO for Ukraine, freezing the Line of Contact. Clarified as "options for discussion" lacking explicit security guarantees. ZNPP neutral status under potential US control discussed. Kyiv response anticipated during London talks this week.
    • China Weapon Test (SCMP via Multiple Sources): Reports of China testing an advanced non-nuclear hydrogen-based bomb (MgH₂) designed to produce a prolonged high-temperature fireball. Potential future conventional weapon development.
    • Finnish Exercise: "Itakaira-2025" Air Force exercise ongoing near the Russian border.
  • Russian Internal Issues:
    • Fatal Fire: Report of 4 children of a hospitalized wounded soldier killed in a house fire in Chelyabinsk Oblast (Mobilization Channel), highlighting social costs.
    • Economic Issues (Occupied Donbas): Reports indicate coal investors attempting to return unprofitable mines, potentially causing economic/social issues (ASTRA).
    • Recruitment Practices: Report of a man accused of murder and dismemberment in Udmurtia being released from custody to join the military (ASTRA).
  • Humanitarian & Ethical:
    • Ceasefire failure led to immediate escalation and civilian impact.
    • Confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure/property in Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kharkiv Oblasts from overnight air attack.
    • Confirmed 3 civilian KIA, 3 WIA in Kherson Oblast (Apr 20).
    • POW Exchange: Confirmed 246-for-246 exchange occurred during ceasefire.
    • NEW UA POW Capture: 9 Russian soldiers captured in Kursk Oblast by UA DShV.
Previous Report (2025-04-21 06:12:45Z)