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Situation Report

2025-04-21 06:12:45Z
Previous Report (2025-04-21 05:42:43Z)

Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Mon Apr 21 06:10 UTC

I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations

  • Post-Ceasefire Hostilities & Current Status:

    • Combat operations continued throughout Apr 20 despite the declared Russian ceasefire window (expired 00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21). Hostilities escalated immediately post-expiry with a large-scale Russian air attack involving missiles and 96 UAVs (strike & imitator types).
    • Air Attack Update (UA AF, 09:00 UTC Apr 21): The overnight attack involved 1 Onyx cruise missile (from Crimea to Kherson Obl.), 2 Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles (from Black Sea to Mykolaiv Obl.), and 96 strike UAVs (Shahed & imitator types) launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (RU) and Gvardeyskoye (Crimea). Ukrainian forces confirmed shooting down 42 Shahed-type UAVs. 47 imitator drones were "locally lost" without negative consequences, suggesting effective countermeasures or decoy use. Damage from the overall attack confirmed in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Cherkasy Oblasts.
    • Ongoing Threat: A missile threat remains active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (~05:13 UTC). Russian tactical aviation continues operations, posing a risk of air strikes to frontline oblasts.
    • Anticipated Intensity: Ukrainian sources anticipated renewed/increased intensity in combat operations today (Apr 21).
    • GSh ZSU Report (Apr 20 Summary): 96 combat clashes recorded across the front line. Russian forces conducted 1882 shelling incidents (33 MLRS) and utilized 957 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian missile/artillery forces struck a Russian concentration area (personnel/equipment) and an artillery system.
    • SDF South Report (Apr 20 Summary): In the South, RU forces conducted 4 attacks on Orikhiv axis (repelled), 56 shelling incidents (>200 munitions), over 150 kamikaze drone strikes, and almost 150 UAV drops (160 munitions). FPV hits reported in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Continued artillery/MLRS strikes despite ceasefire claims. 3 civilians KIA, 3 WIA in Kherson Oblast due to RU aggression. UA forces in the south claimed -38 RU personnel, -1 arty system, -3 vehicle/AFV, -3 recon UAV, -4 EW stations, -6 boats, -3 motorcycles, -2 ATVs, -1 Starlink antenna. UA AD in South downed 2 Shahed-136.
    • Tactical Activity: Explosions reported earlier in Kherson (~04:29 UTC, RBC-Ukraina).
    • Ceasefire Exploitation: Russia confirmed to have used the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, KIA recovery, and tactical preparations, including engineering work preparing crossings over the Zherebets River (Kupyansk/Lyman axis - confirmed UA/RU sources). RU sources (Rybar) claim UA used the ceasefire for similar purposes. RU milbloggers (Rybar) noted RU forces "pulled up fresh forces" expected to attack at dawn.

  • Russian Information Operations (IO) / Internal Developments:

    • Continued focus on portraying Ukraine/West as primary violators of the ceasefire (MFA Zakharova, Rybar). RU sources (Rybar) claim UA conducted 444 arty/mortar attacks & 900+ UAV strikes during ceasefire. Amplification of claims regarding alleged commander misconduct within Russian forces. Ongoing promotion of narratives linking Orthodox faith revival to the war effort. Dissemination of WarGonzo frontline summary map/claims.
    • NEW (RU Claim - RVvoenkor): Allegations of drunk Ukrainian soldiers causing incident in Udy, Kharkiv Oblast. (Likely IO)
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim - Dnevnik Desantnika): Allegations surfaced from Russian sources claiming Ukrainian forces are using heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") coated with a nerve agent. This claim is unverified and likely disinformation.
    • NEW (RU Narrative - TASS): Russian military expert claims the West is using Ukraine as a large-scale testing ground for drone warfare tactics/technology.
    • NEW (RU Narrative - ISW via RBC-Ukraina): ISW assesses Kremlin is militarizing Russian society for a potential long-term confrontation with the West/Europe.
    • IO (Colonelcassad): Direct appeal to Ukrainian citizens via Telegram bot urging collaboration.
    • LEGAL CLAIM (TASS): Moscow court reportedly finds Google guilty of disclosing personal data of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.
    • Propaganda Train Launched (Colonelcassad): Russian MoD propaganda train "Unity in Memory. Strength in Truth!" departed Moscow Apr 19 for a 75-day tour across 61 regions, displaying captured Western equipment.
    • NEW (Historical Narrative - Voin DV): Promotion of Russian Pacific Fleet history.
    • NEW (Equipment Promotion - Arkhangel Spetsnaza): Advertising Russian-made body armor, anti-thermal gear, and vehicle armor kits.
    • NEW (Occupied Territories): Reports (ASTRA) indicate coal investors (OOO Impeks-Don, OOO TD Donskiye Ugli) attempting to return 9 of 15 leased mines in occupied Donbas due to unprofitability, potentially causing economic/social issues.
    • NEW (Domestic Issues - Mobilization Channel): Report of fatal house fire killing 4 children of a hospitalized wounded soldier in Chelyabinsk Oblast, highlighting social costs of the war.

  • Geopolitical Developments (US Proposal Focus):

    • US/Trump Plan Framework (WSJ via Multiple Sources incl. RVvoenkor, Sternenko, TASS): Significant reporting on potential US proposal framework presented to Kyiv (Apr 17, Paris) and Moscow informed. Key reported elements: Ukraine recognition of Crimea as Russian (or US recognition of RU control), Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, freezing the front line (Russia retains occupied territory).
    • Clarifications/Nuances (US Official via RBC-Ukraina / Sternenko / RVvoenkor): These are "options for discussion," not final demands. US reportedly does not demand UA army reduction, does not exclude Western military support (incl. potential European troops - though US position unclear), and does not recognize RU control over 4 occupied oblasts (though doesn't demand immediate withdrawal). Plan reportedly lacks explicit security guarantees.
    • ZNPP Proposal: Consideration of neutral status for ZNPP territories under potential US control, supplying power to both sides. RU MFA reportedly opposes transfer.
    • Timeline/Response: Kyiv's response anticipated during London talks this week. Potential follow-up visit by US envoy Vitkoff to Moscow after London talks (TASS).
    • Trump Statement (via ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika): Trump expressed hope for a deal "this week," mentioned "very good proposals," blamed Putin, Biden, Zelenskyy for war.
    • EU Aid Shift Discussion: Potential European focus shift towards direct investment in Ukraine's domestic defense industry.
    • UK Production Increase (The Times via TASS): UK plans to significantly increase domestic production of RDX explosives and artillery shells.
    • US Internal Issues: Reports (NYT/CNN via ASTRA/Operatyvnyi ZSU) of alleged OPSEC breach by US SecDef discussing Houthi strike plans in private chat. Separate reports (WP via TASS) of unauthorized access to confidential files by US gov employees. Reflect potential distractions.
    • NEW (Global Markets - Reuters via RBC-Ukraina): Reports of gold price reaching record high and US dollar weakening, linked partly to US-China trade tensions and Trump administration actions.
    • NEW (China Weapon Test - Dva Mayora/ASTRA/RBC-Ukraina citing SCMP): Reports of China testing advanced non-nuclear hydrogen-based bomb (MgH₂) producing prolonged high-temperature fireball. Potential future conventional weapon development.

  • Regional Military Activity:

    • Finnish Exercise (Arkhangel Spetsnaza): Finnish Air Force exercise "Itakaira-2025" ongoing (Apr 14-30) near Russian border (~38 km). Involves ~1200 personnel, ~30 aircraft. Russian sources frame as offensive preparation.

  • Claimed Russian Losses (Apr 20):

    • GSh ZSU (Total): +670 RU personnel, +2 tanks, +2 AFVs, +10 artillery systems, +30 OTR UAVs, +50 vehicles/fuel tanks. Cumulative personnel losses approx. 940,820.
    • SDF South (Specific to South): 38 personnel, 1 arty system, 3 vehicle/AFV, 3 recon UAV, 4 EW stations, 6 boats, 3 motorcycles, 2 ATVs, 1 Starlink antenna.

II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact

  • Russian Air Attack (Overnight Apr 20-21 - UA AF Report 09:00 UTC):

    • Attack Composition:
      • 1x Onyx cruise missile (from Crimea towards Kherson Oblast).
      • 2x Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles (from Black Sea airspace towards Mykolaiv Oblast).
      • 96x Strike UAVs (Shahed & Imitator types): Launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia) & Gvardeyskoye (Crimea).
    • Ukrainian Air Defense Results:
      • 42 Shahed-type UAVs CONFIRMED SHOT DOWN across East, North, South, Center.
      • 47 "Imitator Drones" LOCALLY LOST (No negative consequences reported). Suggests effective EW/countermeasures or decoys.
      • Total UAV Intercepts Claimed (Regional): Dnipropetrovsk ODA claimed 7 UAVs downed; Cherkasy ODA claimed 8 UAVs downed. SDF South claimed 2 Shahed-136 downed. (Numbers suggest regional reporting may be partial or overlap).
    • Confirmed Impacts: Damage reported in Kharkiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast.
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Lysak ODA): Strikes caused fires/damage in Pidhorodnenska community (grass/outbuilding fire, dacha), Pavlohrad (food enterprise fire), Mezhivska community (infrastructure - FPV), Novopavlivska community (KABs). Artillery hit Marhanets. No preliminary casualties reported.
      • Cherkasy Oblast (Taburets ODA / RBC-Ukraina): UAV attack damaged an infrastructure object. 8 UAVs downed. No property damage reported.
      • Kharkiv Oblast (Syniehubov ODA): Kivsharivka (Kupyansk dist): Shahed UAV caused major fire (36 apartments burned). Khotimlya (Chuhuiv dist): "Molniya" UAV damaged truck/crane. Kupyansk City: MLRS strikes caused fires (garage, car, house roofs).
    • Missile Impacts:
      • Mykolaiv City: Missile attack confirmed (morning Apr 21). No casualties or damage reported (Mayor via RBC-Ukraina). UA AF confirms 2x Kh-31P targeted Mykolaiv Oblast.
      • Kherson Oblast: Targeted by Onyx missile (UA AF). Explosions reported earlier in Kherson city (~04:29 UTC). SDF South reports 3 KIA, 3 WIA in Kherson Oblast (Apr 20).
    • Tactical Aviation Threat (Ongoing - UA AF): Russian tactical aviation active on North-Eastern and Eastern directions. High risk of aviation weapon strikes (KABs, missiles) for frontline oblasts. KAB strikes confirmed (Novopavlivska, Dnipropetrovsk). RU source (Poddubny) confirms RU tactical aviation and small drones used in overnight strikes.

  • Previous Air/Drone Activity & Claims:

    • RU Claim (DNR - Weekly, TASS): Prevented ~270 UA air attacks in occupied DNR last week.
    • RU Claim (MoD via Rybar - Apr 20): Claims 48 UA UAVs intercepted Apr 20 (1 over Crimea near Armyansk / "Krymskyi Titan" plant).
    • UA Report (Zaporizhzhia OVA - 24h prior to Apr 21 04:10 UTC): Russia launched 108 UAV attacks, 25 artillery strikes on 7 settlements. No destruction/casualties reported then.
    • SDF South Report (Apr 20): >150 RU kamikaze drone strikes, ~150 UAV drops (160 munitions) in southern regions.
    • RU FPV Activity: Ongoing strikes documented. FPV strike confirmed (Mezhivska, Dnipropetrovsk).
    • GSh ZSU Report (Apr 20): Russia used 957 kamikaze drones. Rybar claims Ukraine used 900 drones.
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim - Dnevnik Desantnika): Alleged Ukrainian use of nerve agent-coated heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"). Likely IO.
    • UA Drone Impact (RU Perspective - WarGonzo): Reports "huge number" of Ukrainian drones hindering Russian advances on Donetsk front.
    • NEW (UA Claim - Butusov/Madyar, Apr 20): UA drone ("Ptahy Madyara" unit) successfully hit a Russian Forpost UAV (recon/strike, KAB/missile carrier) valued at $7m on Apr 20. Claims damaged drone landed behind RU lines.

  • Logistics & Capabilities:

    • Ukrainian Needs: Continued emphasis (Sternenko) on critical need for drones (FPV, recon, strike). Reports 102 open requests for 3072 drones. Fundraising Appeal: RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika) highlights RU paratroopers on Zaporizhzhia front needing funds for night vision Mavic drone, suggesting supply gaps.
    • Potential EU Aid Shift: Focus potentially moving towards investment in Ukrainian domestic production.
    • UK Production Boost: Plans to increase RDX/artillery shell manufacturing.
    • Russian Equipment: Advertising protective gear (body armor, anti-thermal ponchos/covers, vehicle armor) suggests focus on countering UA drone/thermal capabilities (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).

III. Frontline Developments (Based on GSh ZSU 05:00 UTC Apr 21, WarGonzo 05:30 UTC Apr 21, SDF South 08:00 UTC Apr 21 & Other Reports)

  • Overall: Intense fighting continued across Eastern/Southern fronts despite ceasefire claims. RU forces maintained offensive pressure (ground assaults, artillery, air power, drones). UA forces conducted defensive operations, repelling attacks. Heavy UA drone usage hindering RU advances reported (WarGonzo). RU forces used ceasefire for rotation, reinforcement, engineering (Zherebets River crossings confirmed). Active RU tactical aviation and missile threats persist.
  • GSh ZSU Summary (Apr 20): 96 combat clashes. UA missile/artillery hit RU concentration area & arty system.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity - GSh ZSU / WarGonzo):
    • GSh ZSU: 39 Russian assaults repelled near Sukha Balka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Rozlyv.
    • WarGonzo: Encounter battles ongoing. Heavy fighting near Zverevo, Kotlyne, Shevchenko. Acknowledges significant impact of UA drones hindering RU advances.
  • Lyman Axis:
    • GSh ZSU: 12 Russian attacks repelled near Nadiia, Myrne, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Nove, Yampolivka.
    • Significant RU Activity during ceasefire (Rybar/UA Intel): Engineering units preparing Zherebets River crossings.
  • Toretsk Axis: 10 Russian attacks repelled near Druzhba, Toretsk, Leonidivka (GSh ZSU).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis (incl. Bohatyr direction - GSh ZSU / WarGonzo):
    • GSh ZSU: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Skudne, towards Odradne.
    • WarGonzo: Fighting continues on Bohatyr direction, claims RU forces expanding control zone. Notes periodic UA counterattacks. RU claim pre-ceasefire drone strike destroyed shelter in Bohatyr.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): 5 Russian attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards Stupochky, Bila Hora (GSh ZSU).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia - GSh ZSU / SDF South / WarGonzo):
    • GSh ZSU / SDF South: 4 Russian attacks repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove.
    • WarGonzo: No significant changes. Fighting continues near Mala Tokmachka and Mali Shcherbaky.
    • RU Crowdfunding: Appeal for night vision Mavic drone for paratroopers on this axis (Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Siversk Axis: 3 Russian attempts repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dar'ivka (GSh ZSU).
  • Kupyansk Axis:
    • GSh ZSU: 1 Russian attack repelled near Holubivka. Confirmed by Kharkiv ODA.
    • Engineering work on Zherebets river crossings relevant.
  • Kharkiv Axis:
    • GSh ZSU: 1 Russian attack repelled near Krasne Pershe. Confirmed by Kharkiv ODA.
  • Huliaipole Axis: No clashes reported on Apr 20 (GSh ZSU).
  • Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson - GSh ZSU / SDF South):
    • GSh ZSU: No ground clashes reported on Apr 20.
    • SDF South: Reports 3 civilians KIA, 3 WIA due to RU aggression Apr 20. Confirms ongoing RU shelling/drone strikes. Reports UA strikes on RU positions/rear, claimed destruction of 6 RU boats.
    • Explosions reported earlier in Kherson city (Apr 21). Targeted by Onyx missile (UA AF).
  • Kursk Border Area (UA Perspective - GSh ZSU / RU Perspective - WarGonzo):
    • GSh ZSU: UA forces stopped 16 Russian assault actions on Apr 20. RU conducted 184 shelling incidents (17 MLRS).
    • NEW (UA DShV): Captured 9 RU soldiers in Kursk Oblast.
    • WarGonzo: No significant changes in LoC. Claims RU continue "liberating territory," only Gornal under UA control. Claims RU continue developing offensive into Sumy Oblast.
  • Belgorod Border Area (RU Perspective - WarGonzo): Claims several UA groups attempting infiltration destroyed over past day. No significant changes in LoC. Fighting continues in Popovka and near Demidovka.
  • Volyn/Polissia: No signs of Russian offensive formations detected (GSh ZSU).

IV. Naval Situation (Status as of 06:00 Apr 21 UTC GSh Report - No Change)

  • Black Sea: 1 Russian warship (Kalibr carrier, up to 6 missiles).
  • Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships (Both Kalibr carriers, up to 12 missiles total).
  • Kerch Strait Traffic: Activity noted, Russia continues violating SOLAS (AIS disabled).

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations & LOAC Concerns:
    • Failure of declared ceasefire led to immediate resumption/escalation, including large-scale RU air attack (96 UAVs - 42 Shahed downed, 47 imitators failed; 1 Onyx, 2 Kh-31P missiles).
    • Confirmed impacts on civilian infrastructure/property in Dnipropetrovsk (dacha, food enterprise, infrastructure), Cherkasy (infrastructure object), Kharkiv (Kupyansk: garages, car, house roofs burned; Kivsharivka: 36 apartments burned).
    • Civilian Casualties (SDF South): 3 civilians KIA, 3 WIA in Kherson Oblast (Apr 20) due to RU aggression.
    • Russian Exploitation of Ceasefire: Confirmed RU use of lull for military preparations (Zherebets River crossings).
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim): Allegation of Ukrainian use of nerve agent-coated heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"). Likely disinformation.
    • RU IO Claims: Persistent claims of mass UA violations (MFA Zakharova citing HIMARS; Rybar citing 444 arty/900+ UAV strikes). RU MoD claims 48 UA UAVs downed Apr 20.
  • Civilian Impact:
    • ONGOING THREAT: NEW missile threat active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (~05:13 UTC). Threat from tactical aviation persists for frontline oblasts.
    • Specific Warnings/Impacts (Recent):
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Confirmed damage/fires from overnight RU drone/FPV/KAB/artillery strikes. No preliminary casualties reported (Lysak ODA). NEW missile threat active.
      • Cherkasy Oblast: Confirmed infrastructure damage from UAV attack. Risk reduced but vigilance required.
      • Kharkiv Oblast: Confirmed extensive damage to residential buildings (Kupyansk, Kivsharivka) and civilian vehicles/equipment (Khotimlya). Casualties TBC.
      • Kherson Oblast: 3 KIA, 3 WIA reported (Apr 20). Ongoing shelling/drone threat. Onyx missile targeted region. Explosions reported in city earlier.
      • Mykolaiv: Missile attack confirmed (Apr 21 morning), no casualties/damage reported. Targeted by Kh-31P missiles.
      • Frontline Oblasts (Sumy, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia): High risk from RU tactical aviation, ground assaults, shelling (1882 incidents Apr 20 per GSh ZSU), drone attacks (957 kamikaze drones Apr 20 per GSh ZSU; >150 kamikaze + ~150 drops Apr 20 per SDF South). WarGonzo reports heavy fighting near Donetsk front settlements. RU claims UA FPV hit civilians (incl. children) in Nechaevka, Belgorod (Rybar). RU claims UA arty hit civilian in Horlivka (Rybar).
  • POWs & Fallen Soldiers:
    • POW Exchange: Confirmed 246-for-246 exchange occurred during ceasefire.
    • NEW POW Capture (UA DShV): Ukraine captured 9 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast.
    • RU/UA forces used ceasefire for WIA/KIA evacuation.
    • Daily minute of silence observed across Ukraine for fallen defenders. Memorials published (KMVA).
  • Russian Information Operations: Direct recruitment attempt (Telegram bot). Framing Ukraine/West for ceasefire failure. Launch of MoD propaganda train. Legal action vs Google. Promoting WSJ report. Disseminating unverified claims (nerve agent drones). WarGonzo map/claims. Framing Finnish exercise. NEW IO: Alleging UA soldier misconduct (RVvoenkor). Historical narratives (Pacific Fleet - Voin DV). Promoting RU equipment (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Highlighting social issues/tragedies linked to mobilized personnel (Mobilization Channel). Discussing internal politics/ideology. Highlighting cost of living complaints from Europe (Dva Mayora).
  • Russian Internal Issues: Fatal Fire: 4 children of wounded soldier killed in fire (Chelyabinsk - Mobilization Channel). Economic Issues (Occupied Donbas): Coal investors attempting to return unprofitable mines (ASTRA). Relatives of missing RU soldiers appeal again (ASTRA). Kursk official detained (fraud). Ongoing crowdfunding needs for basic equipment (night vision drones - Dnevnik Desantnika). Advertising protective gear (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Previous Report (2025-04-21 05:42:43Z)