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Situation Report

2025-04-21 05:42:43Z
Previous Report (2025-04-21 05:12:25Z)

Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Mon Apr 21 05:40 UTC

I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations

  • Post-Ceasefire Hostilities:

    • Combat operations continued throughout Apr 20 despite the declared Russian ceasefire window (expired 00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21). Hostilities escalated immediately post-expiry with a large-scale Russian air attack (strike UAVs primarily), which is ongoing but significantly reduced in intensity. Focus shifted to central/eastern Ukraine (specifically Cherkasy Oblast and areas south of Dnipro City as of ~03:53 UTC), with confirmed impacts. A NEW missile threat was declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (~05:13 UTC).
    • Anticipated Intensity: Ukrainian sources anticipate renewed or increased intensity in combat operations today (Apr 21).
    • GSh ZSU Report (Apr 20 Summary): 96 combat clashes recorded across the front line during the past 24 hours. Russian forces conducted 1882 shelling incidents (including 33 MLRS) and utilized 957 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian missile/artillery forces struck a Russian concentration area (personnel/equipment) and an artillery system.
    • Confirmed Impacts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Overnight - Lysak ODA):
      • Pidhorodnenska community: Dry grass & outbuilding fire, dacha damaged (UAV attack).
      • Pavlohrad: Fire at a food enterprise (UAV attack).
      • Mezhivska community: Infrastructure damage (FPV drone strike).
      • Novopavlivska community: KAB strikes (damage assessment ongoing).
      • Marhanets (Nikopol district): Heavy artillery shelling.
      • No preliminary casualties reported.
    • Confirmed Impacts (Cherkasy Oblast, Overnight - ODA / Operatyvnyi ZSU): Russian UAV attack damaged an infrastructure object. No reports of damage to private property. 8 Russian UAVs reported downed in the region.
    • Confirmed Impacts (Kharkiv Oblast, Apr 20-21 - Syniehubov ODA):
      • Kupyansk City (Early Apr 21): Multiple MLRS strikes caused fires in a garage, damaged a car, and ignited roofs of private houses.
      • Khotimlya (Chuhuiv District, Apr 20): "Molniya" UAV strike damaged a truck and auto crane.
      • Kivsharivka (Kupyansk District, Apr 20): Shahed UAV strike caused a large fire in an apartment building, burning 36 apartments across multiple floors.
    • Tactical Activity: Explosions reported in Kherson (~04:29 UTC, RBC-Ukraina).
    • Ceasefire Exploitation: Russia confirmed to have used the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, KIA recovery, and tactical preparations, including engineering work to prepare crossings over the Zherebets River (Kupyansk/Lyman axis - confirmed by UA/RU sources). RU sources (Rybar) claim UA used the ceasefire for similar purposes.

  • Russian Information Operations (IO) / Internal Developments:

    • Continued focus on portraying Ukraine/West as primary violators of the ceasefire (MFA Zakharova, Rybar). Amplification of claims regarding alleged commander misconduct within Russian forces. Ongoing promotion of narratives linking Orthodox faith revival to the war effort. Dissemination of WarGonzo frontline summary map/claims.
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim - Dnevnik Desantnika): Allegations surfaced from Russian sources claiming Ukrainian forces are using heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") coated with a nerve agent. This claim is unverified and likely disinformation.
    • NEW (RU Narrative - TASS): Russian military expert claims the West is using Ukraine as a large-scale testing ground for drone warfare tactics/technology.
    • NEW (RU Narrative - ISW via RBC-Ukraina): ISW assesses Kremlin is militarizing Russian society for a potential long-term confrontation with the West/Europe.
    • IO (Colonelcassad): Direct appeal to Ukrainian citizens via Telegram bot urging collaboration.
    • LEGAL CLAIM (TASS): Moscow court reportedly finds Google guilty of disclosing personal data of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.
    • Propaganda Train Launched (Colonelcassad): Russian MoD propaganda train "Unity in Memory. Strength in Truth!" officially departed Moscow on Apr 19 for a 75-day tour across 61 regions.
    • NEW (Occupied Territories): Reports (ASTRA) indicate coal investors (OOO Impeks-Don, OOO TD Donskiye Ugli) are attempting to return 9 of 15 leased mines in occupied Donbas to occupation authorities for liquidation due to unprofitability, creating potential economic/employment issues.

  • Geopolitical Developments (US Proposal Focus):

    • US/Trump Plan Framework (WSJ via Multiple Sources incl. RVvoenkor, Sternenko): Significant reporting continues on potential US proposal framework presented to Kyiv (Apr 17, Paris) and Moscow informed. Key reported elements: Ukraine recognition of Crimea as Russian (or US recognition of RU control), Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, freezing the front line (Russia retains occupied territory).
    • Clarifications/Nuances (US Official via RBC-Ukraina / Sternenko / RVvoenkor): These are "options for discussion and feedback," not final. US reportedly does not demand UA army reduction, does not exclude Western military support (incl. potential European troops - though US position on supporting such deployment unclear), and does not recognize RU control over 4 occupied oblasts (though doesn't demand immediate withdrawal). Plan reportedly lacks explicit security guarantees for Ukraine.
    • ZNPP Proposal: Consideration of neutral status for ZNPP territories under potential US control, supplying power to both sides. RU MFA stance reportedly opposes transfer.
    • Timeline/Response: Kyiv's response anticipated during London talks this week. Potential follow-up visit by US envoy Vitkoff to Moscow.
    • Trump Statement (via ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika): Trump expressed hope for a Russia-Ukraine deal "this week," stated "very good proposals" are forthcoming, and assigned blame for the war to Putin, Biden, and Zelenskyy.
    • EU Aid Shift Discussion: Potential European focus shift towards direct investment in Ukraine's domestic defense industry.
    • UK Production Increase (The Times via TASS): UK plans to significantly increase domestic production of RDX explosives and artillery shells.
    • US Internal Issues: Reports (NYT/CNN via ASTRA/Operatyvnyi ZSU) of alleged OPSEC breach by US SecDef discussing Houthi strike plans in private chat. Separate reports (WP via TASS) of unauthorized access to confidential files by US gov employees. These reflect potential instability or distractions within the US administration.

  • Regional Military Activity:

    • Finnish Exercise (Arkhangel Spetsnaza): Finnish Air Force conducting exercise "Itakaira-2025" (Apr 14-30) in central Finland, with operational areas as close as 38 km to the Russian border. Involves ~1200 personnel, ~30 aircraft (F/A-18, PC-12). Objectives include air combat, ground strike, PVO penetration, and low-altitude flight training. Russian sources frame this as offensive preparation.

  • Claimed Russian Losses (Apr 20 - GSh ZSU): Ukraine claims +670 RU personnel, +2 tanks, +2 AFVs, +10 artillery systems, +30 OTR UAVs, +50 vehicles/fuel tanks eliminated. Cumulative claimed personnel losses approx. 940,820.

II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact

  • Post-Ceasefire Russian Air Activity (ONGOING - Reduced Intensity):

    • Combined Attack (Primarily Strike UAVs, Potential Missiles): Coordinated, large-scale UAV attacks targeted multiple regions immediately following ceasefire expiry. Attack intensity significantly reduced, but tactical aviation and NEW missile threat persist.
    • Strike UAV Threat (Reduced but Active - Cherkasy/Dnipropetrovsk):
      • Current Status (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok 03:53 UTC): Approximately 4 UAVs were active in Ukrainian airspace.
      • Primary Concentration (Earlier): 2 UAVs reported south of Dnipro City; 2 UAVs moving from Poltava Oblast towards/through Zolotonosha / Cherkasy City area.
      • Affected Oblasts (Threats/Activity - Summary): Cherkasy (active threat earlier; confirmed infrastructure damage from UAV attack). Dnipropetrovsk (active threat earlier; confirmed impacts overnight; NEW missile threat active ~05:13 UTC). Poltava (drones transiting out earlier). Threat Reduced/Cleared: Kyiv City & Oblast, Odesa Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Air raid alert cancelled 04:32 UTC).
      • Confirmed Impacts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Lysak ODA / RBC-Ukraina): Strikes caused fires and damage in Pidhorodnenska community (grass/outbuilding fire, dacha damage), Pavlohrad (food enterprise fire), Mezhivska community (infrastructure damage - FPV), Novopavlivska community (KABs), and artillery hit Marhanets. No preliminary casualties reported.
      • Confirmed Impacts (Cherkasy Oblast - Taburets ODA / RBC-Ukraina): UAV attack damaged an infrastructure object. No property damage reported.
      • Confirmed Impacts (Kharkiv Oblast - Syniehubov ODA): Kivsharivka (Kupyansk district) hit by Shahed UAV, causing major fire in apartment building (36 flats burned). Khotimlya (Chuhuiv district) hit by "Molniya" UAV (truck/crane damaged).
    • Ukrainian Air Defense Successes (NEW):
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Lysak ODA): 7 enemy UAVs shot down today (Apr 21).
      • Cherkasy Oblast (Taburets ODA): 8 enemy UAVs shot down during the night attack.
    • Missile Attack (Southern Oblasts - Earlier Event, Concluded):
      • Launch: Missiles (reported as likely Onyx) launched from Crimea (~01:54 UTC).
      • Target Areas: Mykolaiv city and Kherson city confirmed targets.
      • Impacts: Explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city. UPDATE (Mykolaiv Mayor via RBC-Ukraina): Missile attack on Mykolaiv city confirmed, no casualties or damage reported. Explosions reported in Kherson (~04:29 UTC), outcome pending.
    • Tactical Aviation Threat (Ongoing - UA AF 04:36 UTC):
      • Activity: Russian tactical aviation remains active on North-Eastern and Eastern directions.
      • Threat: High risk of aviation weapon strikes (e.g., KABs, missiles) for frontline oblasts. Confirmed KAB strikes on Novopavlivska community (Dnipropetrovsk).

  • Previous Air/Drone Activity & Claims:

    • RU Claim (DNR - Weekly, TASS): Prevented almost 270 UA air attacks in occupied DNR over the past week.
    • RU Claim (MoD via Rybar - Apr 20): Claims 48 UA UAVs intercepted Apr 20, including one over Crimea near Armyansk / "Krymskyi Titan" plant.
    • UA Report (Zaporizhzhia OVA - Past 24h prior to 04:10 UTC): Russia launched 108 UAV attacks and 25 artillery strikes on 7 settlements. No destruction/casualties reported.
    • RU FPV Activity: Ongoing strikes documented (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video; Voin DV video on Polozhsky direction/Zaporizhzhia; Colonelcassad video pre-ceasefire strike destroying shelter in Bohatyr). FPV strike confirmed on Mezhivska community (Dnipropetrovsk).
    • GSh ZSU Report (Apr 20): Russia used 957 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian positions and settlements. Rybar claims Ukraine used 900 drones.
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim - Dnevnik Desantnika): Alleged Ukrainian use of nerve agent-coated heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"). Likely IO.
    • UA Drone Impact (RU Perspective - WarGonzo): Reports "huge number" of Ukrainian drones seriously hindering Russian troop advances on the Donetsk front.

  • Logistics & Capabilities:

    • Ukrainian Needs: Continued emphasis (Sternenko) on the critical need for large quantities of drones (FPV, reconnaissance, strike) for frontline units (reports 102 open requests for 3072 drones).
    • Potential EU Aid Shift: Focus potentially moving towards investment in Ukrainian domestic production.
    • UK Production Boost: Plans to increase RDX/artillery shell manufacturing.

III. Frontline Developments (Based on GSh ZSU 05:00 UTC Apr 21, WarGonzo 05:30 UTC Apr 21 & Other Reports)

  • Overall: Intense fighting continues across the Eastern and Southern fronts, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure using ground assaults supported by artillery, air power (KABs), and extensive drone usage (957 kamikaze drones used Apr 20 per GSh ZSU). Ukrainian forces are conducting defensive operations, repelling numerous attacks and inflicting losses. Heavy Ukrainian drone usage reported hindering Russian advances, particularly on the Donetsk front (WarGonzo). Russian forces confirmed use of the ceasefire for rotation, reinforcement, and engineering preparations (Zherebets River crossings - confirmed Rybar/UA intel). Active RU tactical aviation poses ongoing threat to frontline oblasts.
  • GSh ZSU Summary (Apr 20): 96 combat clashes occurred. UA forces repelled attacks across multiple axes.
    • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity - GSh ZSU / WarGonzo):
      • GSh ZSU: 39 Russian assaults repelled near Sukha Balka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Rozlyv.
      • WarGonzo: Encounter battles ongoing on several sectors. Heavy fighting near Zverevo, Kotlyne, Шевченко (Shevchenko). Acknowledges significant impact of UA drones hindering RU advances.
    • Lyman Axis:
      • GSh ZSU: 12 Russian attacks repelled near Nadiia, Myrne, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Nove, Yampolivka.
      • Significant RU Activity during ceasefire (Rybar/UA Intel): Engineering units worked on preparing/clearing river crossings over the Zherebets River.
    • Toretsk Axis: 10 Russian attacks repelled near Druzhba, Toretsk, Leonidivka (GSh ZSU).
    • Novopavlivsk Axis (incl. Bohatyr direction - GSh ZSU / WarGonzo):
      • GSh ZSU: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Skudne, and towards Odradne.
      • WarGonzo: Fighting continues on the Bohatyr direction, claims RU forces continue expanding zone of control. Notes periodic UA counterattacks attempting to seize initiative. RU claim (Colonelcassad) pre-ceasefire drone strike destroyed shelter in Bohatyr.
    • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): 5 Russian attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards Stupochky, Bila Hora (GSh ZSU).
    • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia - GSh ZSU / WarGonzo):
      • GSh ZSU: 4 Russian attacks repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove.
      • WarGonzo: No significant changes reported. Fighting continues near Mala Tokmachka and Mali Shcherbaky. Ongoing RU FPV use confirmed previously.
    • Siversk Axis: 3 Russian attempts repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dar'ivka (GSh ZSU).
    • Kupyansk Axis:
      • GSh ZSU: 1 Russian attack repelled near Holubivka. Confirmed by Kharkiv ODA.
      • Engineering work on Zherebets river crossings also relevant here.
    • Kharkiv Axis:
      • GSh ZSU: 1 Russian attack repelled near Krasne Pershe. Confirmed by Kharkiv ODA.
    • Huliaipole Axis: No clashes reported on Apr 20 (GSh ZSU).
    • Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No ground clashes reported on Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). Explosions reported in Kherson city (~04:29 UTC, Apr 21). City previously targeted by RU artillery/missiles.
  • Kursk Border Area (UA Perspective - GSh ZSU / RU Perspective - WarGonzo):
    • GSh ZSU: Ukrainian defense forces operating in the area stopped 16 Russian assault actions on Apr 20. Russian forces conducted 184 shelling incidents (17 MLRS) against Ukrainian positions/territory.
    • WarGonzo: No significant changes in the Line of Contact (LoC). Claims RU forces continue "liberating territory" and only Gornal remains under UA control in Kursk Oblast. Claims RU forces continue developing offensive into Sumy Oblast.
  • Belgorod Border Area (RU Perspective - WarGonzo): Claims several UA groups attempting infiltration were destroyed over past day. No significant changes in LoC. Fighting continues in Popovka and near Demidovka.
  • Volyn/Polissia: No signs of Russian offensive formations detected (GSh ZSU).

IV. Naval Situation (Status as of 06:00 Apr 21 UTC GSh Report - No Change)

  • Black Sea: 1 Russian warship (Kalibr carrier, up to 6 missiles).
  • Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships (Both Kalibr carriers, up to 12 missiles total).
  • Kerch Strait Traffic: Activity noted, Russia continues violating SOLAS (AIS disabled).

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations & LOAC Concerns:
    • Failure of the declared ceasefire led to immediate resumption/escalation of hostilities, including the large-scale Russian drone attack (now reduced but confirmed infrastructure damage in Cherkasy), NEW missile threat (Dnipropetrovsk), earlier missile strikes (Mykolaiv hit, no damage/casualties), KAB use (Dnipropetrovsk), MLRS strikes (Kupyansk), and renewed tactical aviation threats.
    • Confirmed impacts on civilian infrastructure/property in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (dacha, food enterprise, other infrastructure). Artillery hit Marhanets. No preliminary casualties reported.
    • Confirmed impacts on civilian infrastructure/property in Cherkasy Oblast (infrastructure object damaged by UAV).
    • Confirmed impacts on civilian property in Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk: garages, car, house roofs burned by MLRS; Kivsharivka: 36 apartments burned by Shahed).
    • Russian Exploitation of Ceasefire: Confirmed use of the lull by RU forces for military preparations, including Zherebets River crossings.
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim): Allegation of Ukrainian use of nerve agent-coated heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"). Requires monitoring, likely disinformation designed to accuse Ukraine of WMD use.
    • RU IO Claims: Persistent claims of mass UA violations during ceasefire (MFA Zakharova citing HIMARS use, Rybar citing drone/arty strikes). FSB claim of preventing ~270 UA air attacks (DNR). RU MoD claims 48 UA UAVs downed Apr 20.
  • Civilian Impact:
    • ONGOING THREAT: NEW missile threat active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (~05:13 UTC). Threat from tactical aviation persists for frontline oblasts.
    • Specific Warnings/Impacts (Ongoing/Recent):
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Confirmed damage/fires from overnight RU drone/FPV/KAB/artillery strikes in multiple communities. No preliminary casualties reported (Lysak ODA). Kryvyi Rih district calm (Vilkul). NEW missile threat active.
      • Cherkasy Oblast: Confirmed infrastructure damage from UAV attack. 8 UAVs downed. Risk reduced but vigilance required.
      • Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk & Chuhuiv Districts): Confirmed extensive damage to residential buildings (Kupyansk MLRS fires, Kivsharivka Shahed fire destroying 36 apartments) and civilian vehicles/equipment (Khotimlya UAV strike). Casualties TBC.
      • Kherson: Explosions reported (~04:29 UTC). Previously targeted by missiles. High risk. GSh ZSU reports no ground clashes on Apr 20.
      • Mykolaiv: Previous missile attack confirmed, no casualties or damage reported (Mayor).
      • Frontline Oblasts (Sumy, Luhansk, Donetsk): High risk due to active RU tactical aviation and ground assaults/shelling. GSh ZSU confirms extensive RU shelling (1882 incidents Apr 20) and drone attacks (957 kamikaze drones Apr 20) impacting settlements. WarGonzo reports heavy fighting near multiple settlements on Donetsk front.
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Previous report noted 108 UAV/25 arty strikes in 24h (no casualties/damage reported). GSh ZSU confirms 4 RU ground attacks repelled Apr 20 near settlements. WarGonzo reports continued fighting near settlements. Air raid alert previously cancelled.
      • Belgorod Oblast (RU Claim - Rybar): FPV drone strike in Nechaevka reportedly wounded 2 children and 1 woman. (Requires verification).
      • Occupied Donetsk Oblast (RU Claim - Rybar): Artillery strike in Horlivka reportedly wounded 1 civilian. (Requires verification).
  • POWs & Fallen Soldiers:
    • POW Exchange: Confirmed 246-for-246 exchange occurred during ceasefire period.
    • RU/UA forces used ceasefire for WIA/KIA evacuation.
  • Russian Information Operations: Direct recruitment attempt targeting Ukrainian civilians via Telegram bot. Heavy promotion of narrative framing Ukraine/West for ceasefire failure. Launch of MoD propaganda train across Russia confirmed. Legal action against Google in Russia. Promotion of WSJ report on potential peace terms favorable to Russia. Dissemination of unverified claims (e.g., nerve agent drones). Dissemination of RU frontline maps/claims (WarGonzo). Framing Finnish exercises as offensive.
Previous Report (2025-04-21 05:12:25Z)