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Situation Report

2025-04-21 05:12:25Z
Previous Report (2025-04-21 04:42:16Z)

Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Mon Apr 21 05:10 UTC

I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations

  • Post-Ceasefire Hostilities:

    • Combat operations continued throughout Apr 20 despite the declared Russian ceasefire window (expired 00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21). Hostilities escalated immediately post-expiry with a large-scale Russian air attack (strike UAVs primarily), which is ongoing but significantly reduced in intensity. Focus shifted to central/eastern Ukraine (specifically Cherkasy Oblast and areas south of Dnipro City as of ~03:53 UTC).
    • Anticipated Intensity: Ukrainian sources anticipate renewed or increased intensity in combat operations today (Apr 21).
    • GSh ZSU Report (Apr 20 Summary): 96 combat clashes recorded across the front line during the past 24 hours. Russian forces conducted 1882 shelling incidents (including 33 MLRS) and utilized 957 kamikaze drones.
    • Confirmed Impacts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Overnight - Lysak ODA):
      • Pidhorodnenska community: Dry grass & outbuilding fire, dacha damaged (UAV attack).
      • Pavlohrad: Fire at a food enterprise (UAV attack).
      • Mezhivska community: Infrastructure damage (FPV drone strike).
      • Novopavlivska community: KAB strikes (damage assessment ongoing).
      • Marhanets (Nikopol district): Heavy artillery shelling.
      • No preliminary casualties reported.
    • Tactical Activity: Explosions reported in Kherson (~04:29 UTC, RBC-Ukraina).
    • Ceasefire Exploitation: Russia confirmed to have used the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, KIA recovery, and tactical preparations, including engineering work to prepare crossings over the Zherebets River (Kupyansk/Lyman axis).

  • Russian Information Operations (IO) / Internal Developments:

    • Continued focus on portraying Ukraine as the primary violator of the ceasefire. Amplification of claims regarding alleged commander misconduct within Russian forces. Ongoing promotion of narratives linking Orthodox faith revival to the war effort.
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim): Allegations surfaced from Russian sources ("Dnevnik Desantnika", 05:08 UTC) claiming Ukrainian forces are using heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") coated with a nerve agent. This claim is unverified and likely disinformation.
    • NEW (RU Narrative): Russian military expert (via TASS) claims the West is using Ukraine as a large-scale testing ground for drone warfare tactics and technology intended for future use.
    • IO (Colonelcassad, 02:03 UTC): Direct appeal to Ukrainian citizens via Telegram bot, urging collaboration.
    • LEGAL CLAIM (TASS, 02:41 UTC): Moscow court reportedly finds Google guilty of disclosing personal data of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.
    • Propaganda Train Launched (Colonelcassad, Apr 21): Russian MoD propaganda train "Unity in Memory. Strength in Truth!" officially departed Moscow on Apr 19 for a 75-day tour across 61 regions. Features WWII/modern weapons and captured Western equipment. Aims to bolster domestic support.

  • Geopolitical Developments (US Proposal Focus):

    • US/Trump Plan Framework (WSJ via Multiple Sources): Significant reporting continues on potential US proposal framework presented to Kyiv (Apr 17, Paris) and Moscow informed. Key reported elements: Ukraine recognition of Crimea as Russian (or US recognition of RU control), Ukraine renouncing NATO membership.
    • Clarifications/Nuances (US Official via RBC-Ukraina): These are "options for discussion and feedback," not final. US reportedly does not demand UA army reduction, does not exclude Western military support (incl. potential European troops), and does not recognize RU control over 4 occupied oblasts (though doesn't demand immediate withdrawal).
    • ZNPP Proposal: Consideration of neutral status for ZNPP territories under potential US control, supplying power to both sides. RU MFA stance reportedly opposes transfer.
    • Timeline/Response: Kyiv's response anticipated during London talks this week. Potential follow-up visit by US envoy Vitkoff to Moscow.
    • NEW (Trump Statement via ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika): Trump expressed hope for a Russia-Ukraine deal "this week" and stated "very good proposals" are forthcoming. He assigned blame for the war to Putin, Biden, and Zelenskyy.
    • EU Aid Shift Discussion: Potential European focus shift towards direct investment in Ukraine's domestic defense industry.
    • UK Production Increase (The Times via TASS): UK plans to significantly increase domestic production of RDX explosives and artillery shells.

  • Regional Military Activity:

    • NEW (Finnish Exercise - Arkhangel Spetsnaza): Finnish Air Force conducting exercise "Itakaira-2025" (Apr 14-30) in central Finland, with operational areas as close as 38 km to the Russian border (Leningrad Oblast/Karelia). Involves ~1200 personnel, ~30 aircraft (F/A-18, PC-12) from multiple squadrons. Objectives include air combat, ground strike, PVO penetration, and low-altitude flight training. Russian sources frame this as offensive preparation.

  • Claimed Russian Losses (Apr 20 - GSh ZSU): Ukraine claims +670 RU personnel, +2 tanks, +2 AFVs, +10 artillery systems, +30 OTR UAVs, +50 vehicles/fuel tanks eliminated. Cumulative claimed personnel losses approx. 940,820.

II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact

  • Post-Ceasefire Russian Air Activity (ONGOING - Reduced Intensity):

    • Combined Attack (Primarily Strike UAVs): Coordinated, large-scale UAV attacks targeted multiple regions immediately following ceasefire expiry. Attack intensity significantly reduced, but tactical aviation threat persists.
    • Strike UAV Threat (Reduced but Active - Cherkasy/Dnipropetrovsk):
      • Current Status (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok 03:53 UTC): Approximately 4 UAVs active in Ukrainian airspace.
      • Primary Concentration: 2 UAVs reported south of Dnipro City; 2 UAVs moving from Poltava Oblast towards/through Zolotonosha / Cherkasy City area.
      • Affected Oblasts (Threats/Activity - Summary): Cherkasy (active threat/drones moving towards). Dnipropetrovsk (active threat/drones south of Dnipro; confirmed impacts overnight). Poltava (drones transiting out). Threat Reduced/Cleared: Kyiv City & Oblast, Odesa Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Air raid alert cancelled 04:32 UTC).
      • Confirmed Impacts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Lysak ODA / RBC-Ukraina): Strikes caused fires and damage in Pidhorodnenska community (grass/outbuilding fire, dacha damage), Pavlohrad (food enterprise fire), Mezhivska community (infrastructure damage - FPV), Novopavlivska community (KABs), and artillery hit Marhanets. No preliminary casualties reported.
    • Missile Attack (Southern Oblasts - Earlier Event, Concluded):
      • Launch: Missiles (reported as likely Onyx) launched from Crimea (~01:54 UTC).
      • Target Areas: Mykolaiv city and Kherson city confirmed targets.
      • Impacts: Explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city. UPDATE (Mykolaiv Mayor via RBC-Ukraina): Missile attack on Mykolaiv city confirmed, no casualties or damage reported. Explosions reported in Kherson (~04:29 UTC), outcome pending.
    • Tactical Aviation Threat (Ongoing - UA AF 04:36 UTC):
      • Activity: Russian tactical aviation remains active on North-Eastern and Eastern directions.
      • Threat: High risk of aviation weapon strikes (e.g., KABs, missiles) for frontline oblasts. Confirmed KAB strikes on Novopavlivska community (Dnipropetrovsk).

  • Previous Air/Drone Activity & Claims:

    • RU Claim (DNR - Weekly, TASS): Prevented almost 270 UA air attacks in occupied DNR over the past week.
    • UA Report (Zaporizhzhia OVA - Past 24h prior to 04:10 UTC): Russia launched 108 UAV attacks and 25 artillery strikes on 7 settlements. No destruction/casualties reported.
    • RU FPV Activity: Ongoing strikes documented (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video 04:03 UTC; Voin DV video 04:15 UTC on Polozhsky direction/Zaporizhzhia axis). FPV strike confirmed on Mezhivska community (Dnipropetrovsk). RU claim (Colonelcassad, 05:08 UTC) of pre-ceasefire strike destroying shelter in Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk axis).
    • GSh ZSU Report (Apr 20): Russia used 957 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian positions and settlements.
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim): Alleged Ukrainian use of nerve agent-coated heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"). Likely IO.

  • Logistics & Capabilities:

    • Ukrainian Needs: Continued emphasis (Sternenko) on the critical need for large quantities of drones (FPV, reconnaissance, strike) for frontline units.
    • Potential EU Aid Shift: Focus potentially moving towards investment in Ukrainian domestic production.
    • UK Production Boost: Plans to increase RDX/artillery shell manufacturing.

III. Frontline Developments (Based on GSh ZSU Report 05:00 UTC Apr 21 & Previous Reports)

  • Overall: Intense fighting continues across the Eastern and Southern fronts, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure using ground assaults supported by artillery, air power (KABs), and extensive drone usage (957 kamikaze drones used Apr 20). Ukrainian forces are conducting defensive operations, repelling numerous attacks and inflicting losses. Russian forces confirmed use of the ceasefire for rotation, reinforcement, and engineering preparations (Zherebets River crossings). Active RU tactical aviation poses ongoing threat to frontline oblasts.
  • GSh ZSU Summary (Apr 20): 96 combat clashes occurred. UA forces repelled attacks across multiple axes.
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest intensity. 39 Russian assaults repelled near Sukha Balka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Rozlyv.
    • Lyman Axis: 12 Russian attacks repelled near Nadiia, Myrne, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Nove, Yampolivka. Significant RU Activity during ceasefire: Engineering units worked on preparing/clearing river crossings over the Zherebets River.
    • Toretsk Axis: 10 Russian attacks repelled near Druzhba, Toretsk, Leonidivka.
    • Novopavlivsk Axis: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Skudne, and towards Odradne. RU claim (Colonelcassad) pre-ceasefire drone strike destroyed shelter in Bohatyr.
    • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): 5 Russian attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards Stupochky, Bila Hora. RU TOS thermobaric systems confirmed used previously.
    • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 4 Russian attacks repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove. Ongoing RU FPV use confirmed (Voin DV).
    • Siversk Axis: 3 Russian attempts repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dar'ivka.
    • Kupyansk Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled near Holubivka. Engineering work on Zherebets river crossings also relevant here.
    • Kharkiv Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled near Krasne Pershe.
    • Huliaipole Axis: No clashes reported on Apr 20.
    • Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No ground clashes reported on Apr 20. Explosions reported in Kherson city (~04:29 UTC, Apr 21). City previously targeted by RU artillery/missiles.
  • Kursk Border Area (UA Perspective - GSh ZSU): Ukrainian defense forces operating in the area stopped 16 Russian assault actions on Apr 20. Russian forces conducted 184 shelling incidents (17 MLRS) against Ukrainian positions/territory.
  • Volyn/Polissia: No signs of Russian offensive formations detected.

IV. Naval Situation (Status as of 06:00 Apr 21 UTC GSh Report - No Change)

  • Black Sea: 1 Russian warship (Kalibr carrier, up to 6 missiles).
  • Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships (Both Kalibr carriers, up to 12 missiles total).
  • Kerch Strait Traffic: Activity noted, Russia continues violating SOLAS (AIS disabled).

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations & LOAC Concerns:
    • Failure of the declared ceasefire led to immediate resumption/escalation of hostilities, including the large-scale Russian drone attack (now reduced), earlier missile strikes (Mykolaiv confirmed hit, no casualties/damage), and renewed tactical aviation threats.
    • Confirmed impacts on civilian infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (dacha, food enterprise, other infrastructure). Artillery hit Marhanets. No preliminary casualties reported.
    • Russian Exploitation of Ceasefire: Confirmed use of the lull by RU forces for military preparations, including Zherebets River crossings.
    • NEW (Unverified RU Claim): Allegation of Ukrainian use of nerve agent-coated heavy drones ("Baba Yaga"). Requires monitoring, likely disinformation designed to accuse Ukraine of WMD use.
    • RU IO Claims: Persistent claims of mass UA violations during ceasefire. FSB claim of preventing ~270 UA air attacks (DNR).
  • Civilian Impact:
    • LINGERING THREAT: Active RU strike UAV attack poses lingering threats to civilian populations across Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (intensity reduced). Threat from tactical aviation persists for frontline oblasts.
    • Specific Warnings/Impacts (Ongoing/Recent):
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Confirmed damage/fires from overnight RU drone/FPV/KAB/artillery strikes in Pidhorodnenska, Pavlohrad, Mezhivska, Novopavlivska communities, and Marhanets. No preliminary casualties reported (Lysak ODA). Kryvyi Rih district calm (Vilkul).
      • Cherkasy City & Oblast: Air raid alert likely active, ~2 UAVs reported heading towards area. Risk persists.
      • Dnipro City & Oblast: Air raid alert likely active, ~2 UAVs reported south of the city. Risk persists.
      • Kherson: Explosions reported (~04:29 UTC). Previously targeted by missiles. High risk. GSh ZSU reports no ground clashes on Apr 20.
      • Mykolaiv: Previous missile attack confirmed, no casualties or damage reported (Mayor).
      • Frontline Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk): High risk due to active RU tactical aviation. GSh ZSU confirms extensive RU shelling (1882 incidents Apr 20) and drone attacks (957 kamikaze drones Apr 20) impacting settlements.
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Previous report noted 108 UAV/25 arty strikes in 24h (no casualties/damage reported). GSh ZSU confirms 4 RU ground attacks repelled Apr 20 near settlements. Air raid alert now cancelled.
  • POWs & Fallen Soldiers:
    • POW Exchange: Confirmed 246-for-246 exchange occurred during ceasefire period.
    • RU/UA forces used ceasefire for WIA/KIA evacuation.
  • Russian Information Operations: Direct recruitment attempt targeting Ukrainian civilians via Telegram bot. Heavy promotion of narrative framing Ukraine/West for ceasefire failure. Launch of MoD propaganda train across Russia confirmed. Legal action against Google in Russia. Promotion of WSJ report on potential peace terms favorable to Russia. Dissemination of unverified claims (e.g., nerve agent drones).
Previous Report (2025-04-21 04:42:16Z)