Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Mon Apr 21 04:41 UTC

---

I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations

• Ceasefire Status (Expired 00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21):

  • Hostilities escalated immediately post-expiry with a large-scale Russian air attack (strike UAVs primarily), which is ongoing but significantly reduced in intensity. Focus shifted to central/eastern Ukraine (specifically Cherkasy Oblast and areas south of Dnipro City as of ~03:53 UTC).
  • Confirmed Impacts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Overnight - Lysak ODA):
    • Pidhorodnenska community: Dry grass & outbuilding fire, dacha damaged (UAV attack).
    • Pavlohrad: Fire at a food enterprise (UAV attack).
    • Mezhivska community: Infrastructure damage (FPV drone strike).
    • Novopavlivska community: KAB strikes (damage assessment ongoing).
    • Marhanets (Nikopol district): Heavy artillery shelling.
    • No preliminary casualties reported.
  • Tactical Activity: Explosions reported in Kherson (~04:29 UTC, RBC-Ukraina).
  • Russian Stance/Rationale: Russia officially rejected longer ceasefire proposals, framing rejection on alleged Ukrainian violations and use of civilian infrastructure. RU MFA (Zakharova) specifically blamed Kyiv/US for the failure, alleging UA use of US-supplied HIMARS during the period (Dva Mayora).
  • Ukrainian Assessment (President Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20 / OSUV Khortytsia / DeepState): Documented extensive Russian violations during the declared period. Russia used the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, KIA recovery, and tactical preparations, including engineering work to prepare crossings over the Zherebets River (confirmed by RU sources citing UA reports).
  • Russian Claims of UA Violations (Reinforced - Rybar, Dva Mayora, RU MoD, TASS): Russia heavily promoted claims of mass Ukrainian violations (444 artillery/mortar attacks, over 900 UAV strikes by 12:30 Apr 20 claimed). NEW CLAIM (RU FSB via TASS, Apr 21): Allegedly prevented almost 270 Ukrainian air attacks (likely drones) in occupied DNR over the past week.
  • POW Exchange: A 246-for-246 exchange occurred during the ceasefire period.
  • Claimed Russian Losses (Apr 20 - GSh ZSU / Operatyvnyi ZSU / RBC-Ukraina): Ukraine claims +670 RU personnel, +10 artillery systems, +30 UAVs, +50 vehicles/fuel tanks eliminated. Cumulative claimed personnel losses approx. 940,820.

• Russian Information Operations (IO) / Internal Developments:

  • Continued focus on portraying Ukraine as the primary violator of the ceasefire. Amplification of claims regarding alleged commander misconduct within Russian forces. Ongoing promotion of narratives linking Orthodox faith revival to the war effort.
  • IO (Colonelcassad, 02:03 UTC): Direct appeal to Ukrainian citizens via Telegram bot, urging collaboration.
  • LEGAL CLAIM (TASS, 02:41 UTC): Moscow court reportedly finds Google guilty of disclosing personal data of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.
  • Propaganda Train Launched (Colonelcassad, Apr 21): Russian MoD propaganda train "Unity in Memory. Strength in Truth!" officially departed Moscow on Apr 19 for a 75-day tour across 61 regions. Features WWII/modern weapons and captured Western equipment. Aims to bolster domestic support.

• Geopolitical Developments (US Proposal Focus):

  • US/Trump Plan Framework (WSJ via Tsaplienko, Operatyvnyi ZSU, TASS, RBC-Ukraina, Dva Mayora, Tsaplienko_Fights): Significant reporting on potential US proposal framework presented to Kyiv (Apr 17, Paris) and Moscow informed. Key reported elements:
    • Requires Ukraine to recognize Crimea as Russian (or US recognition of RU control).
    • Requires Ukraine to renounce NATO membership aspirations.
    • Clarifications/Nuances (US Official via RBC-Ukraina): These are "options for discussion and feedback," not a final proposal. The US does not demand reduction of the UA army, does not exclude Western military support (including potential European troop presence), and does not recognize RU control over the 4 occupied oblasts (though doesn't demand immediate withdrawal).
    • ZNPP Proposal: Consideration of neutral status for ZNPP territories under potential US control, with ZNPP supplying power to both UA-controlled and occupied areas. RU MFA stance reportedly opposes transfer (Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • Timeline: Kyiv's response anticipated during London talks this week. Potential follow-up visit by US envoy Vitkoff to Moscow.
  • EU Aid Shift Discussion: Potential European focus shift towards direct investment in Ukraine's domestic defense industry.
  • UK Production Increase (The Times via TASS): UK plans to significantly increase domestic production of RDX explosives and artillery shells.

---

II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact

• Post-Ceasefire Russian Air Activity (ONGOING - Reduced Intensity):

  • Combined Attack (Primarily Strike UAVs): Coordinated, large-scale UAV attacks targeted multiple regions immediately following ceasefire expiry. Attack intensity significantly reduced, but tactical aviation threat persists.
  • Strike UAV Threat (Reduced but Active - Cherkasy/Dnipropetrovsk):
    • Current Status (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok 03:53 UTC): Approximately 4 UAVs active in Ukrainian airspace.
    • Primary Concentration: 2 UAVs reported south of Dnipro City; 2 UAVs moving from Poltava Oblast towards/through Zolotonosha / Cherkasy City area.
    • Affected Oblasts (Threats/Activity - Summary): Cherkasy (active threat/drones moving towards). Dnipropetrovsk (active threat/drones south of Dnipro; confirmed impacts overnight). Poltava (drones transiting out). Threat Reduced/Cleared: Kyiv City & Oblast, Odesa Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Air raid alert cancelled 04:32 UTC).
    • Confirmed Impacts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Lysak ODA): Strikes caused fires and damage in Pidhorodnenska community, Pavlohrad, Mezhivska community (FPV), Novopavlivska community (KABs), and artillery hit Marhanets. No initial casualties reported.
    • Drone Vectors & Numbers (Approximate Estimate based on Vanyok 03:53): ~4 active UAVs, over Cherkasy & Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Numbers significantly reduced from peak.
  • Missile Attack (Southern Oblasts - Earlier Event, Concluded):
    • Launch: Missiles (reported as likely Onyx) launched from Crimea (~01:54 UTC).
    • Target Areas: Mykolaiv city and Kherson city confirmed targets.
    • Impacts: Explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city. NEW: Explosions reported in Kherson (~04:29 UTC). Damage/casualty assessment pending.
  • Tactical Aviation Threat (Ongoing - UA AF 04:36 UTC):
    • Activity: Russian tactical aviation remains active on North-Eastern and Eastern directions.
    • Threat: High risk of aviation weapon strikes (e.g., KABs, missiles) for frontline oblasts. Confirmed KAB strikes on Novopavlivska community (Dnipropetrovsk).

• Previous Air/Drone Activity (Illustrative & Recent Data):

  • RU Claim (DNR - Weekly, TASS): Prevented almost 270 UA air attacks in occupied DNR over the past week.
  • UA Report (Zaporizhzhia OVA - Past 24h prior to 04:10 UTC): Russia launched 108 UAV attacks and 25 artillery strikes on 7 settlements. No destruction/casualties reported. (Note: This precedes the main overnight drone attack wave).
  • RU FPV Activity: Ongoing strikes documented (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video 04:03 UTC; Voin DV video 04:15 UTC on Polozhsky direction/Zaporizhzhia axis). FPV strike confirmed on Mezhivska community (Dnipropetrovsk).

• Logistics & Capabilities:

  • Potential EU Aid Shift: Focus potentially moving towards investment in Ukrainian domestic production.
  • UK Production Boost: Plans to increase RDX/artillery shell manufacturing.

---

III. Frontline Developments

• Overall: Main focus remains countering the large-scale Russian air attack (now reduced intensity) and its consequences (damage assessment in Dnipropetrovsk). Emerging threat from Russian tactical aviation remains active along NE/E axes targeting frontline areas. Russian forces confirmed to have used the ceasefire period for rotation, reinforcement, and significant engineering preparations, notably attempting to establish/clear crossings over the Zherebets River (Kupyansk/Lyman axis). Expect potential renewed ground offensives. Ongoing RU FPV drone use reported (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Voin DV videos).
• Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
  • RU Activity: RU MoD video showcased demining operations, indicating consolidation efforts. RU TOS thermobaric systems confirmed used against UA positions (Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:00 UTC).
• Kupyansk / Lyman Axis (Zherebets River):
  • Significant RU Activity: Russian engineering units actively worked on preparing/clearing river crossings over the Zherebets River during the ceasefire lull. Indicates preparations for potential offensive actions aimed at expanding the bridgehead on the right bank.
  • Threat: Under threat from RU tactical aviation.
• Frontline Oblasts (NE/E - Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk): Under increased threat from Russian tactical aviation strikes (UA AF 04:36 UTC).
• Donetsk Axis (Incl. Pokrovsk, Toretsk): Previously subject to renewed KAB strikes post-ceasefire. Pokrovsk axis previously reported as area of highest ground assault intensity. Under new threat from tactical aviation. RU claims UA attacks repelled near Sukha Balka and Bohatyr during ceasefire. RU Claim (Weekly): RU FSB claims prevention of ~270 UA air attacks in occupied DNR over past week (TASS).
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Subject to ongoing RU strike UAV threat (now significantly reduced, air raid alert cancelled). Under threat from tactical aviation. RU FPV Strike Confirmed: Voin DV (04:15 UTC) shows FPV strike on UA position on "Polozhsky direction". UA Report (OVA, Past 24h prior to 04:10 UTC): Russia conducted 108 UAV attacks and 25 artillery strikes against 7 settlements. No destruction/casualties reported.
• Kherson Axis: NEW: Explosions reported in Kherson city (~04:29 UTC). City previously targeted by Russian artillery and missile attack (~01:57 UTC). Under threat from tactical aviation.
• Mykolaiv Axis: Targeted by missile attack (~01:55 UTC), explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city. Under threat from tactical aviation.
• Dnipropetrovsk Axis: Confirmed impacts from overnight RU drone/KAB/artillery attacks across multiple communities (Pidhorodnenska, Pavlohrad, Mezhivska, Novopavlivska, Marhanets - Lysak ODA). No preliminary casualties. Kryvyi Rih district reported calm (Vilkul).

---

IV. Naval Situation (Status as of 06:00 Apr 21 UTC GSh Report - No Change Expected)

• Black Sea: 1 Russian warship (Kalibr carrier, up to 6 missiles).
• Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships.
• Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships (Both Kalibr carriers, up to 12 missiles total).
• Kerch Strait Traffic: Activity noted, Russia continues violating SOLAS (AIS disabled).

---

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

• Ceasefire Violations & LOAC Concerns:
  • Ceasefire failure led to immediate resumption/escalation of hostilities, notably the large-scale Russian drone attack (now reduced) impacting central/eastern regions, earlier missile strikes, and renewed tactical aviation threats. Confirmed impacts on civilian infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.
  • Russian Exploitation of Ceasefire: Confirmed use of the lull by RU forces for rotation, resupply, fortification, and engineering preparations (e.g., Zherebets River crossings).
  • RU IO Claims: Persistent claims of mass UA violations during ceasefire, including alleged HIMARS use and specific attacks causing civilian casualties. FSB claim of preventing ~270 UA air attacks (DNR).
• Civilian Impact:
  • IMMINENT THREAT (Reduced): Active RU strike UAV attack poses lingering threats to civilian populations across Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Threat from tactical aviation persists for frontline oblasts.
  • Specific Warnings/Impacts (Ongoing/Recent):
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Confirmed damage/fires from overnight RU drone/FPV/KAB/artillery strikes in Pidhorodnenska, Pavlohrad, Mezhivska, Novopavlivska communities, and Marhanets. No preliminary casualties reported (Lysak ODA).
    • Cherkasy City & Oblast: Air raid alert likely active, ~2 UAVs reported heading towards area. Risk persists.
    • Dnipro City & Oblast: Air raid alert likely active, ~2 UAVs reported south of the city. Risk persists.
    • Kherson: Explosions reported (~04:29 UTC). Previously targeted by missiles. High risk.
    • Frontline Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk): High risk due to active RU tactical aviation.
    • Mykolaiv: Previous missile attack caused explosions. Risk of casualties/damage being assessed.
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Previous report noted 108 UAV/25 arty strikes in 24h (no casualties/damage reported). Air raid alert now cancelled.
    • Demining operations in Chasiv Yar highlight risks. Use of TOS thermobaric weapons near Chasiv Yar increases risk.
  • RU Claims of Civilian Harm during Ceasefire: Reports of 2 children, 1 woman injured by FPV drone in Nechaevka (Belgorod); 1 civilian injured by arty in Horlivka (Dva Mayora).
• POWs & Fallen Soldiers:
  • POW Exchange: Confirmed 246-for-246 exchange occurred.
  • RU/UA forces used ceasefire for WIA/KIA evacuation, amidst claims of obstruction/misuse of symbols.
• Russian Information Operations: Direct recruitment attempt targeting Ukrainian civilians via Telegram bot. Heavy promotion of narrative framing Ukraine/West for ceasefire failure. Launch of MoD propaganda train across Russia confirmed. Legal action against Google in Russia. Promotion of WSJ report on potential peace terms favorable to Russia.