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Situation Report

2025-04-21 04:12:11Z
Previous Report (2025-04-21 03:42:18Z)

Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Mon Apr 21 04:11 UTC

I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations

  • Ceasefire Status (Expired 00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21):

    • Hostilities escalated immediately post-expiry with a large-scale Russian air attack (strike UAVs primarily), which is ongoing with focus shifting towards central/eastern Ukraine (specifically Cherkasy Oblast and areas south of Dnipro City as of ~03:53 UTC).
    • Russian Stance/Rationale: Russia officially rejected proposals for a longer ceasefire (e.g., Zelenskyy's 30-day proposal), framing the rejection based on alleged Ukrainian use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes and citing alleged mass Ukrainian violations of the Easter ceasefire (Dva Mayora). RU MFA (Zakharova) specifically blamed Kyiv/US for the ceasefire failure, alleging UA use of US-supplied HIMARS during the period (Dva Mayora).
    • Ukrainian Assessment (President Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20 / OSUV Khortytsia / DeepState): Documented extensive Russian violations during the declared period, including increased shelling/drone use post-10:00 Apr 20. Russia used the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, KIA recovery, and tactical preparations, including engineering work to prepare crossings over the Zherebets River (confirmed by RU sources citing UA reports).
    • Russian Claims of UA Violations (Reinforced - Rybar, Dva Mayora, RU MoD, TASS): Russia continues to heavily promote claims of mass Ukrainian violations during the ceasefire period (444 artillery/mortar attacks, over 900 UAV strikes by 12:30 Apr 20 claimed). Specific claims include attempted ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka, Kursk/Belgorod border) and strikes causing civilian casualties (e.g., FPV drone attack injuring 2 children and 1 woman in Nechaevka, Belgorod Oblast; artillery casualty in Horlivka). Claims of 48 UA UAVs intercepted overnight Sat-Sun. NEW CLAIM (RU FSB via TASS, Apr 21): Allegedly prevented almost 270 Ukrainian air attacks (likely drones) in occupied DNR over the past week.
    • POW Exchange: A 246-for-246 exchange occurred during the ceasefire period. (Previous report stated 277 UA returned, 246 seems more consistently reported by UA DShV/sources, maintaining 246).

  • Russian Information Operations (IO) / Internal Developments:

    • Continued focus on portraying Ukraine as the primary violator of the ceasefire.
    • Amplification of claims regarding alleged commander misconduct within Russian forces undermining the ceasefire for profit.
    • Ongoing promotion of narratives linking Orthodox faith revival in Russia to the war effort (RVvoenkor).
    • IO (Colonelcassad, 02:03 UTC): Direct appeal to Ukrainian citizens via Telegram bot, urging collaboration.
    • LEGAL CLAIM (TASS, 02:41 UTC): Moscow court reportedly finds Google guilty of disclosing personal data of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.
    • Propaganda Train Launched (Colonelcassad, Apr 21): Russian MoD propaganda train "Unity in Memory. Strength in truth!" officially departed Moscow on Apr 19 for a 75-day tour across 61 regions. Features WWII/modern weapons and captured Western equipment. Aims to bolster domestic support and promote military narratives.

  • Geopolitical Developments:

    • Trump Statements & Potential Plan (WSJ via Tsaplienko, Operatyvnyi ZSU, TASS): Reports amplified regarding potential Trump plan requiring Ukraine to recognize Crimea as Russian and renounce NATO membership. Washington reportedly awaits Kyiv's response this week (London talks?). New Detail (Operatyvnyi ZSU): US proposal allegedly does not demand reduction of UA army and does not exclude Western military support, including potential European troop presence.
    • US ZNPP Proposal (WSJ via TASS & RBC-Ukraina, Operatyvnyi ZSU): Reports persist regarding a US proposal for neutral status for ZNPP territories, potentially transferring control to Washington, with ZNPP supplying power to both UA-controlled and occupied areas.
    • EU Aid Shift Discussion: Potential European focus shift towards direct investment in Ukraine's domestic defense industry (WP report).
    • UK Production Increase (The Times via TASS): UK plans to significantly increase domestic production of RDX explosives and artillery shells.

II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact

  • Post-Ceasefire Russian Air Activity (MASSIVE ESCALATION - Ongoing as of 04:11 UTC):

    • Combined Attack (Primarily Strike UAVs): Coordinated, large-scale attacks using strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran-type) targeted multiple regions simultaneously immediately following ceasefire expiry (confirmed by Dva Mayora). Attack remains active, focus appears to be on central oblasts. Earlier missile strikes (Onyx) concluded.
    • Strike UAV Threat (Significant, Widespread, Complex & Sustained - Ongoing, Reduced Numbers):
      • Current Status (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok 03:53 UTC): Approximately 4 UAVs active in Ukrainian airspace.
      • Primary Concentration: 2 UAVs reported south of Dnipro City; 2 UAVs moving from Poltava Oblast towards/through Zolotonosha / Cherkasy City area.
      • Affected Oblasts (Threats/Active Drones/AD Activity - Summary): Cherkasy (active threat/drones moving towards). Dnipropetrovsk (active threat/drones south of Dnipro). Poltava (drones transiting out). Threat Reduced/Cleared: Kyiv City & Oblast, Odesa Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (proximity implies potential threat, but no active drones reported there).
      • Specific City/Area Warnings & Activity (based on UA AF, Monitoring Reports, Dva Mayora, Vanyok up to 04:11 UTC):
        • Cherkasy City & Oblast: HIGH THREAT - ONGOING. 2 UAVs heading towards/through Zolotonosha/Cherkasy area (Vanyok 03:53). Air raid alert likely still active. Confirmed target region earlier.
        • Dnipro City & Oblast: HIGH THREAT - ONGOING. 2 UAVs reported circling south of Dnipro City (Vanyok 03:53). Urgent shelter calls previously issued. Air raid alert likely active. Confirmed target region earlier.
        • Poltava Oblast: Threat reducing. Drones reported moving towards Cherkasy Oblast (Vanyok 03:53). Air raid alert may still be active. Confirmed target region earlier.
        • Mykolaiv Oblast / City: Confirmed target region earlier (Dva Mayora). Explosions previously confirmed from missile attack. UAV threat appears cleared.
        • Odesa Oblast / City: Confirmed target region earlier (Dva Mayora). Threat reported clear earlier (Vanyok 02:45).
        • Kyiv City & Oblast: Confirmed target region earlier (Dva Mayora). Air raid alert cancelled (KMVA 02:48).
        • Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast), Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Confirmed target regions earlier (Dva Mayora). Likely impacted by earlier UAV activity.
      • Drone Vectors & Numbers (Approximate Estimate based on Vanyok 03:53): ~4 active UAVs, over Cherkasy & Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Numbers significantly reduced from peak.
      • Complexity & Scale: Sustained, multi-vector attack primarily using strike UAVs launched from multiple directions. Indicates coordinated effort to penetrate/overwhelm AD. Intensity focused on central/eastern oblasts.
    • Missile Attack (Southern Oblasts - Earlier Event, Concluded):
      • Launch: Missiles (reported as likely Onyx) launched from Crimea (~01:54 UTC).
      • Target Areas: Mykolaiv city and Kherson city confirmed targets.
      • Impacts: Explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city. Damage/casualty assessment pending. Kherson impact status TBC.
    • Tactical Aviation Threat (Ongoing):
      • Activity: Russian tactical aviation active on North-Eastern and Eastern directions (UA AF 03:06). Fighterbomber post (04:07 UTC) suggests continued air activity.
      • Threat: High risk of aviation weapon strikes (e.g., KABs, missiles) for frontline oblasts (UA AF 03:06).

  • Previous Air/Drone Activity (Illustrative & Recent Data):

    • RU Claim (DNR - Weekly, TASS): Prevented almost 270 UA air attacks in occupied DNR over the past week.
    • UA Report (Zaporizhzhia OVA - Past 24h): Russia launched 108 UAV attacks and 25 artillery strikes on 7 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. No destruction/casualties reported.
    • RU Claim (Pre-Ceasefire): Destruction of UA dugout/ammo/personnel in Serebryanske forestry.
    • UA Actions (Recent): Destruction of Russian BM-21 Grad; FPV strikes (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video 04:03 UTC shows ongoing RU FPV use); precision strike video released.

  • Logistics & Capabilities:

    • Potential EU Aid Shift: Focus potentially moving towards investment in Ukrainian domestic production.
    • UK Production Boost: Plans to increase RDX/artillery shell manufacturing.

III. Frontline Developments

  • Overall: Main focus remains countering the large-scale Russian air attack (now reduced intensity). Emerging threat from Russian tactical aviation active along NE/E axes targeting frontline areas. Russian forces confirmed to have used the ceasefire period for rotation, reinforcement, and significant engineering preparations, notably attempting to establish/clear crossings over the Zherebets River (Kupyansk/Lyman axis) (Dva Mayora citing UA sources, DeepState/66th Bde video). Expect potential renewed ground offensives. Ongoing RU FPV drone use reported (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
    • RU Activity: RU MoD video (TASS, 02:28 UTC) showcases sapper units conducting demining operations in Chasiv Yar, indicating consolidation efforts. NEW (Dnevnik Desantnika, 04:00 UTC): RU TOS thermobaric systems used against UA positions on this direction.
  • Kupyansk / Lyman Axis (Zherebets River):
    • Significant RU Activity: Russian engineering units actively worked on preparing/clearing river crossings over the Zherebets River during the ceasefire lull (Dva Mayora citing UA sources, DeepState/66th Bde video). This indicates preparations for potential offensive actions aimed at expanding the bridgehead on the right bank.
    • RU Claims (Rybar Summary - during ceasefire): Continued advances towards Kupyansk and expansion of the Zherebets bridgehead. Fighting near Oleshnia (Kursk/Sumy border area) ongoing.
    • Threat: Under threat from RU tactical aviation.
  • Frontline Oblasts (NE/E - Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk): Under increased threat from Russian tactical aviation strikes (UA AF 03:06).
  • Donetsk Axis (Incl. Pokrovsk, Toretsk): Previously subject to renewed KAB strikes post-ceasefire. Pokrovsk axis previously reported as area of highest ground assault intensity. Under new threat from tactical aviation. RU sources claim UA attacks repelled near Sukha Balka and Bohatyr during ceasefire (Dva Mayora). RU Claim (Weekly): RU FSB claims prevention of ~270 UA air attacks in occupied DNR over past week (TASS).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Subject to ongoing RU strike UAV threat (now reduced). Under new threat from tactical aviation. UA Report (OVA, Past 24h): Russia conducted 108 UAV attacks and 25 artillery strikes against Kam'yanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka. No destruction/casualties reported.
  • Kherson Axis: Kherson city previously targeted by Russian artillery and missile attack (~01:57 UTC). Under threat from tactical aviation.
  • Mykolaiv Axis: Targeted by missile attack (~01:55 UTC), explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city. Under threat from tactical aviation.

IV. Naval Situation (Update based on UA General Staff Report, 06:00 Apr 21 UTC)

  • Black Sea:
    • 1 Russian warship on combat duty.
    • Identified as a Kalibr cruise missile carrier.
    • Potential Salvo: Up to 6 Kalibr missiles. (Status unchanged).
  • Sea of Azov:
    • Zero Russian warships reported on combat duty. (Status unchanged).
  • Mediterranean Sea:
    • 2 Russian warships on combat duty.
    • Both identified as Kalibr cruise missile carriers.
    • Potential Salvo: Up to 12 Kalibr missiles. (Status unchanged from previous report, but significant decrease from Apr 18 baseline).
  • Kerch Strait Traffic (Past 24h):
    • To Black Sea: 1 vessel (continued towards Bosphorus).
    • To Azov Sea: 6 vessels (3 came from Bosphorus direction).
    • Note: Russia continues violating SOLAS by disabling AIS.

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations & LOAC Concerns:
    • Ceasefire failure led to immediate resumption/escalation of hostilities, notably the ongoing (reduced intensity) large-scale Russian drone attack targeting central regions, earlier missile strikes, and renewed tactical aviation threats.
    • Russian Exploitation of Ceasefire: Confirmed use of the lull by RU forces for rotation, resupply, fortification, and engineering preparations (e.g., Zherebets River crossings) close to the front lines, potentially using white flags/crosses as cover (DeepState, STERNENKO, Dva Mayora).
    • RU IO Claims: Persistent, large-scale claims of UA violations (444 arty, >900 UAVs, ~270 prevented air attacks in DNR over week) during ceasefire, including alleged HIMARS use (Zakharova via Dva Mayora) and specific attacks causing civilian casualties (FPV on civilians in Belgorod, arty on Horlivka - Dva Mayora).
    • Alleged UA Violation (RU IO): Aggressive promotion of claims regarding attack on Russian evacuation group under white flags (from previous reports).
  • Civilian Impact:
    • IMMINENT & WIDESPREAD THREAT (Reducing): Active RU strike UAV attack poses immediate threats to civilian populations across Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Threat from tactical aviation exists for frontline oblasts.
    • Specific Urgent Warnings/Impacts (Ongoing):
      • Cherkasy City & Oblast: Air raid alert likely active, 2 UAVs reported heading towards area. High risk persists.
      • Dnipro City & Oblast: Air raid alert likely active, 2 UAVs reported south of the city. High risk persists.
      • Frontline Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk): New high risk due to active RU tactical aviation.
      • Mykolaiv: Previous missile attack caused explosions. Risk of casualties/damage being assessed. Target of ongoing air attacks.
      • Kherson: Previously targeted by missiles. Risk of casualties/damage being assessed.
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 108 UAV attacks and 25 artillery strikes reported over past 24h across 7 settlements. No civilian casualties or destruction reported (OVA).
      • Demining operations in Chasiv Yar highlight extreme risks in urban combat zones. Use of TOS thermobaric weapons near Chasiv Yar increases risk to any remaining civilians/infrastructure.
    • RU Claims of Civilian Harm during Ceasefire: Reports of 2 children, 1 woman injured by FPV drone in Nechaevka (Belgorod); 1 civilian injured by arty in Horlivka (Dva Mayora).
  • POWs & Fallen Soldiers:
    • POW Exchange: Confirmed 246-for-246 exchange occurred.
    • RU/UA forces used ceasefire for WIA/KIA evacuation on some sectors, amidst claims of obstruction and misuse of protective symbols (multiple sources).
  • Russian Information Operations: Direct recruitment attempt targeting Ukrainian civilians via Telegram bot (Colonelcassad). Heavy promotion of narrative framing Ukraine/West as responsible for ceasefire failure. New legal action against Google in Russia regarding fallen soldiers' data. Launch of MoD propaganda train across Russia confirmed, displaying captured Western equipment (Colonelcassad).
Previous Report (2025-04-21 03:42:18Z)