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Situation Report

2025-04-21 03:42:18Z
Previous Report (2025-04-21 03:12:06Z)

Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Mon Apr 21 03:41 UTC

I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations

  • Ceasefire Status (Expired 00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21):

    • Hostilities escalated immediately post-expiry with a large-scale Russian air attack (strike UAVs primarily), which is ongoing with focus shifting towards central/eastern Ukraine.
    • Russian Stance/Rationale: Russia officially rejected proposals for a longer ceasefire (e.g., Zelenskyy's 30-day proposal), framing the rejection based on alleged Ukrainian use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes and citing alleged mass Ukrainian violations of the Easter ceasefire (Dva Mayora). RU MFA (Zakharova) specifically blamed Kyiv/US for the ceasefire failure, alleging UA use of US-supplied HIMARS during the period (Dva Mayora).
    • Ukrainian Assessment (President Zelenskyy Report, Apr 20 / OSUV Khortytsia / DeepState): Documented extensive Russian violations during the declared period, including increased shelling/drone use post-10:00 Apr 20. Russia used the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, KIA recovery, and tactical preparations, including engineering work to prepare crossings over the Zherebets River (confirmed by RU sources citing UA reports).
    • Russian Claims of UA Violations (Reinforced - Rybar, Dva Mayora, RU MoD): Russia continues to heavily promote claims of mass Ukrainian violations during the ceasefire period (444 artillery/mortar attacks, over 900 UAV strikes by 12:30 Apr 20 claimed). Specific claims include attempted ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka, Kursk/Belgorod border) and strikes causing civilian casualties (e.g., FPV drone attack injuring 2 children and 1 woman in Nechaevka, Belgorod Oblast; artillery casualty in Horlivka). Claims of 48 UA UAVs intercepted overnight Sat-Sun.
    • POW Exchange: A 246-for-246 exchange occurred during the ceasefire period. (Previous report stated 277 UA returned, 246 seems more consistently reported by UA DShV/sources, maintaining 246).

  • Russian Information Operations (IO) / Legal Actions:

    • Continued focus on portraying Ukraine as the primary violator of the ceasefire.
    • Amplification of claims regarding alleged commander misconduct within Russian forces undermining the ceasefire for profit.
    • Ongoing promotion of narratives linking Orthodox faith revival in Russia to the war effort (RVvoenkor).
    • IO (Colonelcassad, 02:03 UTC): Direct appeal to Ukrainian citizens via Telegram bot, urging collaboration.
    • LEGAL CLAIM (TASS, 02:41 UTC): Moscow court reportedly finds Google guilty of disclosing personal data of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

  • Geopolitical Developments:

    • Trump Statements & Potential Plan (WSJ via Tsaplienko, TASS): Reports amplified regarding potential Trump plan requiring Ukraine to recognize Crimea as Russian and renounce NATO membership. Washington reportedly awaits Kyiv's response (London talks?).
    • US ZNPP Proposal (WSJ via TASS & RBC-Ukraina): Reports persist regarding a US proposal for neutral status for ZNPP territories, potentially transferring control to Washington.
    • EU Aid Shift Discussion: Potential European focus shift towards direct investment in Ukraine's domestic defense industry (WP report).
    • UK Production Increase (The Times via TASS): UK plans to significantly increase domestic production of RDX explosives and artillery shells.

II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact

  • Post-Ceasefire Russian Air Activity (MASSIVE ESCALATION - Ongoing as of 03:41 UTC):

    • Combined Attack (Primarily Strike UAVs): Coordinated, large-scale attacks using strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran-type) targeted multiple regions simultaneously immediately following ceasefire expiry (confirmed by Dva Mayora). Attack remains active, focus appears to be on central/eastern oblasts. Earlier missile strikes (Onyx) concluded.
    • Strike UAV Threat (Significant, Widespread, Complex & Sustained - Ongoing):
      • Current Status (Tsaplienko 03:37 UTC): Approximately 13 UAVs active in Ukrainian airspace.
      • Primary Concentration: Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts (Tsaplienko 03:37).
      • Affected Oblasts (Threats/Active Drones/AD Activity - Summary): Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava (main focus). Cherkasy (likely still under threat, reduced numbers reported earlier). Kharkiv, Sumy (fewer drones reported heading this way earlier). Threat Reduced/Cleared: Kyiv City & Oblast, Odesa Oblast. Mykolaiv Oblast (previously hit by missiles, current UAV status unclear). Zaporizhzhia Oblast (proximity to Dnipropetrovsk implies potential threat).
      • Specific City/Area Warnings & Activity (based on UA AF, Monitoring Reports, Dva Mayora up to 03:41 UTC):
        • Dnipro City & Oblast: HIGH THREAT - ONGOING ATTACK. Confirmed target region. Multiple UAVs reported in the area (UA AF 02:59, Vanyok 03:03). Urgent calls for residents to shelter. Area of main UAV concentration.
        • Poltava Oblast: HIGH THREAT - ONGOING ATTACK. Confirmed target region. Multiple UAVs reported moving into/through the oblast (Vanyok 03:03). Area of main UAV concentration.
        • Cherkasy City & Oblast: HIGH THREAT - LIKELY ONGOING. Confirmed target region. Multiple waves/groups previously reported. Reduced number (3) heading towards area earlier (Vanyok 03:03). Air raid alert likely still active.
        • Kharkiv Oblast: Threat persists, particularly west. 3 drones reported in western part earlier (Vanyok 03:03).
        • Sumy Oblast: Threat likely reduced, drones reported moving into Poltava earlier (Vanyok 03:03).
        • Mykolaiv Oblast / City: Confirmed target region (Dva Mayora). Explosions previously confirmed from missile attack. Current UAV status less clear.
        • Odesa Oblast / City: Confirmed target region (Dva Mayora). Threat reported clear earlier (Vanyok 02:45).
        • Kyiv City & Oblast: Confirmed target region (Dva Mayora). Air raid alert cancelled (KMVA 02:48).
        • Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast), Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Confirmed target regions (Dva Mayora). Likely impacted by current UAV activity.
      • Drone Vectors & Numbers (Approximate Estimate based on Tsaplienko 03:37, Vanyok 03:03): ~13 active UAVs, primarily over Dnipropetrovsk & Poltava. Numbers dynamic.
      • Complexity & Scale: Sustained, multi-vector attack primarily using strike UAVs launched from multiple directions. Indicates coordinated effort to penetrate/overwhelm AD. Intensity focused on central/eastern oblasts.
    • Missile Attack (Southern Oblasts - Earlier Event, Concluded):
      • Launch: Missiles (reported as likely Onyx) launched from Crimea (~01:54 UTC).
      • Target Areas: Mykolaiv city and Kherson city confirmed targets.
      • Impacts: Explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city. Damage/casualty assessment pending. Kherson impact status TBC.
    • Tactical Aviation Threat (Ongoing):
      • Activity: Russian tactical aviation active on North-Eastern and Eastern directions (UA AF 03:06).
      • Threat: High risk of aviation weapon strikes (e.g., KABs, missiles) for frontline oblasts (UA AF 03:06).

  • Previous Air/Drone Activity (Illustrative):

    • RU Claim (Pre-Ceasefire): Destruction of UA dugout/ammo/personnel in Serebryanske forestry.
    • UA Actions (Recent): Destruction of Russian BM-21 Grad; FPV strikes; precision strike video released.

  • Logistics & Capabilities:

    • Potential EU Aid Shift: Focus potentially moving towards investment in Ukrainian domestic production.
    • UK Production Boost: Plans to increase RDX/artillery shell manufacturing.

III. Frontline Developments

  • Overall: Main focus remains countering the large-scale Russian air attack. Emerging threat from Russian tactical aviation active along NE/E axes targeting frontline areas. Russian forces confirmed to have used the ceasefire period for rotation, reinforcement, and significant engineering preparations, notably attempting to establish/clear crossings over the Zherebets River (Kupyansk/Lyman axis) (Dva Mayora citing UA sources, DeepState/66th Bde video). Expect potential renewed ground offensives.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
    • RU MoD video (TASS, 02:28 UTC) showcases sapper units conducting demining operations in Chasiv Yar, indicating consolidation efforts.
  • Kupyansk / Lyman Axis (Zherebets River):
    • Significant RU Activity: Russian engineering units actively worked on preparing/clearing river crossings over the Zherebets River during the ceasefire lull (Dva Mayora citing UA sources, DeepState/66th Bde video). This indicates preparations for potential offensive actions aimed at expanding the bridgehead on the right bank.
    • RU Claims (Rybar Summary - during ceasefire): Continued advances towards Kupyansk and expansion of the Zherebets bridgehead. Fighting near Oleshnia (Kursk/Sumy border area) ongoing.
    • Threat: Under threat from RU tactical aviation.
  • Frontline Oblasts (NE/E - Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk): Under increased threat from Russian tactical aviation strikes (UA AF 03:06).
  • Donetsk Axis (Incl. Pokrovsk, Toretsk): Previously subject to renewed KAB strikes post-ceasefire. Pokrovsk axis previously reported as area of highest ground assault intensity. Under new threat from tactical aviation. RU sources claim UA attacks repelled near Sukha Balka and Bohatyr during ceasefire (Dva Mayora).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Subject to ongoing RU strike UAV threat. Under new threat from tactical aviation.
  • Kherson Axis: Kherson city previously targeted by Russian artillery and missile attack (~01:57 UTC). Under threat from tactical aviation.
  • Mykolaiv Axis: Targeted by missile attack (~01:55 UTC), explosions confirmed in Mykolaiv city. Under threat from tactical aviation.

IV. Naval Situation (Update based on UA General Staff Report, 06:00 Apr 21 UTC)

  • Black Sea:
    • 1 Russian warship on combat duty.
    • Identified as a Kalibr cruise missile carrier.
    • Potential Salvo: Up to 6 Kalibr missiles. (Status unchanged from previous report).
  • Sea of Azov:
    • Zero Russian warships reported on combat duty. (Status unchanged).
  • Mediterranean Sea:
    • 2 Russian warships on combat duty.
    • Both identified as Kalibr cruise missile carriers.
    • Potential Salvo: Up to 12 Kalibr missiles. (Significant Decrease from Apr 18 baseline of 3 carriers/26 missiles).
  • Kerch Strait Traffic (Past 24h):
    • To Black Sea: 1 vessel (continued towards Bosphorus).
    • To Azov Sea: 6 vessels (3 came from Bosphorus direction).
    • Note: Russia continues violating SOLAS by disabling AIS.

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations & LOAC Concerns:
    • Ceasefire failure led to immediate resumption/escalation of hostilities, notably the ongoing, large-scale Russian drone attack targeting multiple regions, earlier missile strikes, and renewed tactical aviation threats.
    • Russian Exploitation of Ceasefire: Confirmed use of the lull by RU forces for rotation, resupply, fortification, and engineering preparations (e.g., Zherebets River crossings) close to the front lines, potentially using white flags/crosses as cover (DeepState, STERNENKO, Dva Mayora).
    • RU IO Claims: Persistent, large-scale claims of UA violations (444 arty, >900 UAVs) during ceasefire, including alleged HIMARS use (Zakharova via Dva Mayora) and specific attacks causing civilian casualties (FPV on civilians in Belgorod, arty on Horlivka - Dva Mayora).
    • Alleged UA Violation (RU IO): Aggressive promotion of claims regarding attack on Russian evacuation group under white flags (from previous reports).
  • Civilian Impact:
    • IMMINENT & WIDESPREAD THREAT: Active, large-scale RU strike UAV attack poses immediate threats to civilian populations across Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy and potentially adjacent oblasts. Threat from tactical aviation exists for frontline oblasts.
    • Specific Urgent Warnings/Impacts (Ongoing):
      • Dnipro City & Oblast: Air raid alert active, multiple UAV groups reported near the city, main area of concentration, urgent shelter calls renewed. High risk.
      • Poltava Oblast: Air raid alert active, multiple UAV groups reported in the oblast, main area of concentration. High risk.
      • Cherkasy Oblast: Air raid alert likely active, previous sustained UAV attack, urgent calls to shelter. High risk persists.
      • Frontline Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk): New high risk due to active RU tactical aviation.
      • Mykolaiv: Previous missile attack caused explosions. Risk of casualties/damage being assessed. Target of ongoing air attacks.
      • Kherson: Previously targeted by missiles. Risk of casualties/damage being assessed.
      • Chuhuiv, Pavlohrad: Confirmed targets of ongoing air attacks (Dva Mayora). High risk.
    • Demining operations in Chasiv Yar highlight extreme risks in urban combat zones.
    • RU Claims of Civilian Harm during Ceasefire: Reports of 2 children, 1 woman injured by FPV drone in Nechaevka (Belgorod); 1 civilian injured by arty in Horlivka (Dva Mayora).
  • POWs & Fallen Soldiers:
    • POW Exchange: Confirmed 246-for-246 exchange occurred.
    • RU/UA forces used ceasefire for WIA/KIA evacuation on some sectors, amidst claims of obstruction and misuse of protective symbols (multiple sources).
  • Russian Information Operations: Direct recruitment attempt targeting Ukrainian civilians via Telegram bot (Colonelcassad). Heavy promotion of narrative framing Ukraine/West as responsible for ceasefire failure. New legal action against Google in Russia regarding fallen soldiers' data.
Previous Report (2025-04-21 03:12:06Z)