Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 07:54:52 2025
I. Strategic & Information Operations
Easter Ceasefire Status & IO:
Continued RU Claims of UA Violations:
Strike alleged on Donetsk City (targeting gas station near Elevatornaya St, Budonnivskyi district; also Kalininskyi district near Musketovsky cemetery reported by RU sources Kotenok, Mash, Poddubny, TASS, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika). Visuals show smoke plumes.
Strike alleged on Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast overnight (TASS citing Miroshnik; Voenkor Kotenok).
Strike alleged on Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast (4x 155mm shells claimed) (Voenkor Kotenok).
Strikes alleged on unspecified settlements in occupied Kherson Oblast (ASTRA citing Saldo).
UA Counter-Claims: UA sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko) frame the alleged Donetsk strike as a Russian provocation, noting delays in reporting by major RU monitoring channels.
Russian Assessment of Ceasefire Activity (RU Source - Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 07:30 UTC Apr 20):
Kursk: Fighting continues, UA drone attacks reported. No ceasefire observed.
Belgorod: High UA drone activity, occasional small arms fire.
Siversk: Reported quiet.
Chasiv Yar: Reported quiet, no shelling over Bakhmut.
Pokrovsk: Reported quiet, occasional UA FPV strikes. RU claims intercepts indicate UA command ordered ceasefire.
Zaporizhzhia: Reported quiet. RU claims intercepts mention possible extension to 30 days.
Kherson: Reported quiet (no ground fighting), but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from opposite bank.
RU Concern: Potential 30-day ceasefire extension viewed skeptically, potentially allowing UA time for reinforcement, resupply, and preparation for future offensives.
Russian Assessment of UA Ceasefire Activity (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, older): Claims UA used the period for regrouping and ammunition resupply across "almost all sectors," occupying grey zones and maintaining drone activity (FPVs noted).
International Media Analysis (Amplified by UA): WSJ analysis reported (Operatyvnyi ZSU) suggesting the ceasefire declaration was a "diplomatic victory" for Russia, potentially positioning Putin favorably towards Trump by appearing peace-oriented despite violations.
Fox News Broadcast Error Continued Discussion: Multiple UA & RU sources (ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, Melania Podolyak, Sebast'yan Show) continue discussing/highlighting the Fox News error labelling Kyiv as "Kyiv, Russia."
Morale & Religious Themes:
Both sides continue leveraging Easter messages (Zelenskyy via Lysak, Putin via TASS, GSh ZSU, Coordination HQ POWs, RU MoD, Basurin, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Butusov Plus, Strelkov, KiberBoroshno, Durov via Novosti Moskvy).
RU MoD details delivery of "Savior Not Made by Hands" icon replica to Tsentr Group of Forces at Saur-Mogila memorial (DPR) for morale, to be circulated among frontline units. Religious ceremony held in trench church.
Videos show Easter Paska deliveries to UA frontline troops, including via drone (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko). GSh ZSU shares images juxtaposing Easter traditions and military reality (helmet as basket, soldier with gift box, etc.).
"Holy Fire" arrives in Ukraine via Ustyluh border crossing from Warsaw (RBC-Ukraina, Operativno ZSU).
RU source (Basurin, older) discusses various strategic topics including the ceasefire, peace talks, Trump, drone warfare, economic mobilization, and frontline situation from RU perspective.
Imprisoned RU nationalist figure Strelkov issues Easter message calling for Russia to "rise from the cross," framing the country as on the "threshold of catastrophe."
Internal Ukrainian Developments:
Procurement Leadership Change: Dismissal of First Deputy Minister of Defense Ivan Havryliuk (responsible for arms procurement) reported (Butusov Plus). Criticisms voiced regarding recurring changes, chaos, and lack of accountability in UA MoD procurement system.
Border Guard Cadet Suicide: Second suicide reported among National Academy of State Border Guard Service cadets; 19-year-old reportedly shot himself while on duty at Chernivtsi Border Detachment post in Bukovina (RBC-Ukraina citing prosecutor's office).
Potential Internal Friction: Public posts by former Azov commander Krotevich (Jan-Apr) discuss complex factors influencing battlefield outcomes beyond commander ratings, criticize internal politics affecting awards/recognition, and highlight the need for experienced leadership and better inter-agency cooperation (NGU/ZSU).
Internal Russian Developments:
Report of anti-war protester in Khabarovsk (ASTRA, older).
Report of murder-suicide (conscript/contractor) near St. Petersburg (Butusov Plus, older).
POW Exchange Preparations: GUR representative Yusov confirms preparations are underway for future operations to return Ukrainian prisoners (RBC-Ukraina).
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Alleged UA Strikes During Ceasefire (RU Claims):
Impacts reported in Donetsk City (Gas station near Elevatornaya St., Budennovskyi district; Kalininskyi & Budonnivskyi districts near cemetery) (Multiple RU sources).
Alleged shelling of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast (TASS, Voenkor Kotenok).
Alleged shelling of Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast (4x 155mm) (Voenkor Kotenok).
UA Strikes (Claimed):
Major Claim: UA 65th Mech Bde ("Ronin" unit) claims destruction of a Russian Buk M3 SAM system deep behind enemy lines in the Zaporizhzhia direction using FPV drones supplied via Sternenko/Ukrnafta fundraising (Sternenko). (High-value target if confirmed).
UA 33rd MRR Drone Ops (Pokrovsk Axis): Video compilation shows high intensity drone strikes near Tarasivka (Dva Mayora).
Russian Strikes:
Donetsk Oblast (UA Police Report, past 24h): 3523 shelling incidents reported. 6 settlements hit (Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, Lyman, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Piddubne). Kostyantynivka heavily damaged (13 strikes, 10 bombs); Piddubne hit by UMPB D-30SN bomb; Kramatorsk house hit by "Molniya-2" drone (ASTRA).
RU drone strike claimed destroying UA AGS near Otradne (Novopavlivsk Axis) (Colonelcassad/Voin_DV, older).
RU sources report AD activity over Donetsk (Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika).
RU Claim: RU 64th Sep Motor Rifle Bde (35th CAA) allegedly destroyed a UA "Vampir" heavy drone by ramming it with another drone on the "Polozhskoye direction" (likely Pology area, Zaporizhzhia) (Voin DV).
RU Claim: RU special forces ("Anvar") claim attacks on UA equipment near Pysarivka checkpoint (Sumy Oblast), targeting a claimed UA "anti-drone corridor" (netting structure observed previously) (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor). Footage claimed pre-ceasefire.
Logistics - Russian Needs:
Continued public fundraising appeals for specific units:
352nd Motor Rifle Regiment (Kupyansk): Seeking 4 ATVs, Matrice 30T drone, Mavic 3T drone, signal amplifier (Need: ~140k RUB) (Dva Mayora). Highlights need for mobility and advanced recon/spotting drones.
"Volki" Brigade (Siversk), Evacuation Group 10th Coy (Zaporizhzhia), UAV Platoon Reactive Division: Seeking body armor, helmets, medical supplies (kits, backpacks) (Colonelcassad/Z ParaBellum). Highlights need for PPE and medevac support.
Logistics - Ukrainian Needs:
Ongoing public fundraising appeal for field camp beds for multiple frontline brigades (109th, 143rd, 1st OSHB) (RBC-Ukraina).
Potential Procurement Disruption: Dismissal of Dep MoD Havryliuk raises concerns about stability and efficiency of UA arms procurement processes (Butusov Plus).
Surveillance Technology: Report on US Army investment in high-altitude surveillance aerostats (QinetiQ US). Noted that such systems are used by both sides in the current conflict, potentially integrated with AD against long-range drones (Dva Mayora).
Kursk: Claims RU forces occupied Belogorsky Nikolsky Monastery, continued push towards Hornal.
Kupyansk: Claims RU expanding control in Kamyanka, fighting in Mala Shapkivka and towards Dvorichna.
Lyman: Claims RU entered Nove, advanced along Zherebets River towards Mirne.
Bakhmut: Claims RU expanded control in Hryhorivka residential area.
Toretsk (West of Horlivka): Claims RU occupied positions at "Novodzerzhynska" mine, advanced near Dachne, control central Sukha Balka, advanced in Kalynove.
Pokrovsk ("Krasnoarmeysk Arc"): Claims RU initiated fighting in central Myrolyubivka.
Velyka Novosilka: Claims RU attempted attacks in northern Vesele.
Orikhiv: Claims RU conducted large armored attacks, reached southern outskirts of Mala Tokmachka.
Zaporizhzhia: Fighting gradually becoming positional due to high UA drone count and reserves.
Donetsk: RU expanding control on Bohatyr direction. Fierce fighting on Pokrovsk sector. RU pushed UA on northern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
Kursk: No significant LoC changes. RU MoD announced Oleshnia liberation (Apr 19).
Belgorod: Claims Demidovka vicinity cleared of UA forces.
General: Claims UA actively using kamikaze drones despite ceasefire.
Kursk/Belgorod Axis (Border):
RU sources report continued fighting (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU claim UA drone attacks and small arms fire persist (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU forces claim targeting UA equipment near Pysarivka checkpoint (Sumy Obl.) using special forces, attacking claimed UA "anti-drone corridor" (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 20 06:38 UTC):
Past 24h: 2 RU air strikes (2 KABs), 100 kamikaze drones, 648 shellings.
2 RU assaults near Vovchansk / Mala Shapkivka repelled.
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for recon unit of 352nd MRR (Dva Mayora).
Lyman Axis:
RU claims alleged UA shelling of Kreminna during ceasefire (TASS, Voenkor Kotenok).
Siversk Axis:
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for "Volki" Brigade (Colonelcassad).
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Pokrovsk Axis:
Reported largely quiet by RU source, though occasional UA FPV strikes noted (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU 33rd MRR (20th Gv MSD) drone units claim high intensity strikes near Tarasivka this week (Dva Mayora video).
UA Police report RU shelling damage in Pokrovsk (past 24h) (ASTRA).
Toretsk Axis:
RU claims pushing UA forces on northern outskirts (WarGonzo). RU claim alleged UA shelling of Horlivka (Voenkor Kotenok).
Zaporizhzhia Axis:
Reported quiet by RU source; mentions possibility of 30-day ceasefire extension (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). WarGonzo notes shift to positional fighting due to UA drones/reserves.
Significant UA Claim: Destruction of RU Buk M3 SAM system claimed by 65th Mech Bde (Sternenko).
RU Claim: RU drone reportedly destroyed UA "Vampir" drone by ramming near Pology (Voin DV).
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for evacuation group of 10th Coy, DShP (Colonelcassad).
Kherson Axis:
Reported quiet (no ground fighting) by RU source, but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from west bank (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Donetsk Front (Occupied Areas):
Multiple RU sources report alleged UA strikes on Donetsk City (gas station, residential areas) during the ceasefire period. UA sources call it a provocation.
IV. Capabilities & Logistics (Summary of New Points)
Ukrainian:
Claimed Strike Capability: Destruction of high-value RU asset (Buk M3 SAM) claimed in Zaporizhzhia direction (Sternenko). Southern Forces report significant RU losses (Apr 19). OTU Kharkiv reports significant RU losses (Apr 19-20). RU 33rd MRR drone units claim successful strikes near Tarasivka (Pokrovsk Axis).
Procurement/Logistics: Dismissal of Dep MoD Havryliuk raises concerns about procurement stability (Butusov Plus). Fundraising continues for basic necessities like field camp beds (RBC-Ukraina). Drone delivery used for morale items (Paskas) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Drone Ops: Active use of FPVs for deep strikes claimed (Sternenko). Potential loss of a "Vampir" heavy drone claimed by RU (Zaporizhzhia). Use of drone delivery for morale items (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Counter-Drone Measures: Potential use of "anti-drone corridors" (netting) observed/claimed targeted by RU near Pysarivka (Sumy Obl.) (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
Personnel Issues: Report of second Border Guard cadet suicide (Bukovina). Internal critiques of command/rating systems surfaced (Krotevich posts).
Russian:
Drone Ops: RU claims destroying UA "Vampir" drone via ramming (Zaporizhzhia). RU drone units active near Tarasivka (Pokrovsk). RU claims targeting UA counter-drone measures (Sumy Obl.). Active drone use reported despite ceasefire claims (WarGonzo). RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claims low activity on some fronts but notes UA drone presence.
Logistics Needs: Public appeals highlight specific equipment shortages for units on multiple axes: ATVs, advanced drones (Matrice 30T, Mavic 3T), signal boosters (Kupyansk); body armor, helmets, medical supplies (Siversk, Zaporizhzhia). Indicates reliance on volunteer networks for essential gear.
SAM Systems: Potential loss of a Buk M3 system claimed by UA (Zaporizhzhia).
Morale/IO: Continued focus on religious events (Easter messages, icon deliveries) for morale (MoD Russia, Putin, Strelkov). Active framing of alleged UA ceasefire violations.
Surveillance: Use of Aerostats noted as a capability employed by both sides (Dva Mayora).
V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm:
Contradictory claims persist. RU accuses UA of striking Donetsk (gas station), Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson Oblast during the ceasefire, potentially impacting civilian infrastructure/safety.
UA accuses RU of staging a provocation in Donetsk.
UA Police (Donetsk Oblast) report 2 civilians KIA, 5 WIA from RU shelling in the past 24 hours (covering period likely overlapping pre-ceasefire). Significant damage reported in Kostyantynivka (incl. homes, admin buildings, gas station) and Piddubne (home damaged, 2 WIA). Damage also reported in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kramatorsk.
The declared ceasefire remains largely ineffective on the ground, with claims of violations from both sides, particularly concerning drone activity and shelling in specific areas (Donetsk, Kursk/Belgorod border).
Religious/Cultural Sites: RU MoD highlights activities at Saur-Mogila memorial and delivery of icon associated with Tsentr Group. Slivochniy Kapriz claims RU forces occupied Belogorsky Nikolsky Monastery (Kursk). Arrival of "Holy Fire" in Ukraine noted.
Information Environment: Continued manipulation noted (Fox News error discussion). Disinformation potential surrounding ceasefire violations and alleged extensions.
Personnel Welfare: Report of second suicide among UA Border Guard cadets raises concerns.
