Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 07:24:52 2025
I. Strategic & Information Operations
Easter Ceasefire Status & IO:
Continued RU Claims of UA Violations:
Strike alleged on Donetsk City (targeting gas station, Kalininskyi & Budonnivskyi districts near Musketovsky cemetery reported by RU sources Kotenok, Mash, Poddubny, TASS). Visuals show smoke plumes.
Strike alleged on Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast overnight (TASS citing Miroshnik).
Strikes alleged on unspecified settlements in occupied Kherson Oblast (ASTRA citing Saldo).
UA Counter-Claims: UA sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko) frame the alleged Donetsk strike as a Russian provocation, noting delays in reporting by major RU monitoring channels.
Russian Assessment of UA Ceasefire Activity: RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika) claims UA used the ceasefire period for regrouping and ammunition resupply across "almost all sectors," occupying grey zones and maintaining drone activity (FPVs noted).
International Media Analysis (Amplified by UA): WSJ analysis reported (Operatyvnyi ZSU) suggesting the ceasefire declaration was a "diplomatic victory" for Russia, potentially positioning Putin favorably towards Trump by appearing peace-oriented despite violations.
Fox News Broadcast Error Continued Discussion: Multiple UA & RU sources continue discussing/highlighting the Fox News error labelling Kyiv as "Kyiv, Russia."
RU MoD details delivery of "Savior Not Made by Hands" icon replica to Tsentr Group of Forces at Saur-Mogila memorial (DPR) for morale, to be circulated among frontline units.
Videos show Easter Paska deliveries to UA frontline troops, including via drone (Operatyvnyi ZSU). GSh ZSU shares images juxtaposing Easter traditions and military reality.
RU source (Basurin) discusses various strategic topics including the ceasefire, peace talks, Trump, drone warfare, economic mobilization, and frontline situation from RU perspective.
Internal Russian Developments:
Report of anti-war protester in Khabarovsk (ASTRA).
Report of murder-suicide (conscript/contractor) near St. Petersburg (Butusov Plus).
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Alleged UA Strikes During Ceasefire (RU Claims):
Impacts reported in Donetsk City (multiple districts, smoke plumes visible) (Multiple RU sources).
Alleged shelling of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast (TASS).
UA Strikes (Claimed):
Major Claim: UA 65th Mech Bde ("Ronin" unit) claims destruction of a Russian Buk M3 SAM system deep behind enemy lines in the Zaporizhzhia direction using FPV drones supplied via Sternenko/Ukrnafta fundraising (Sternenko). (High-value target if confirmed).
Air Defence: RU sources report AD activity over Donetsk (Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika).
Logistics - Russian Needs:
Continued public fundraising appeals for specific units:
352nd Motor Rifle Regiment (Kupyansk): Seeking 4 ATVs, Matrice 30T drone, Mavic 3T drone, signal amplifier (Need: ~140k RUB) (Dva Mayora). Highlights need for mobility and advanced recon/spotting drones.
"Volki" Brigade (Siversk), Evacuation Group 10th Coy (Zaporizhzhia), UAV Platoon Reactive Division: Seeking body armor, helmets, medical supplies (kits, backpacks) (Colonelcassad/Z ParaBellum). Highlights need for PPE and medevac support.
Logistics - Ukrainian Needs:
Ongoing public fundraising appeal for field camp beds for multiple frontline brigades (109th, 143rd, 1st OSHB) (RBC-Ukraina).
Kursk: Claims RU forces occupied Belogorsky Nikolsky Monastery, continued push towards Hornal.
Kupyansk: Claims RU expanding control in Kamyanka, fighting in Mala Shapkivka and towards Dvorichna.
Lyman: Claims RU entered Nove, advanced along Zherebets River towards Mirne.
Bakhmut: Claims RU expanded control in Hryhorivka residential area.
Toretsk (West of Horlivka): Claims RU occupied positions at "Novodzerzhynska" mine, advanced near Dachne, control central Sukha Balka, advanced in Kalynove.
Pokrovsk ("Krasnoarmeysk Arc"): Claims RU initiated fighting in central Myrolyubivka.
Velyka Novosilka: Claims RU attempted attacks in northern Vesele.
Orikhiv: Claims RU conducted large armored attacks, reached southern outskirts of Mala Tokmachka.
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 20 06:38 UTC):
Past 24h: 2 RU air strikes (2 KABs), 100 kamikaze drones, 648 shellings.
2 RU assaults near Vovchansk / Mala Shapkivka repelled.
Significant UA Claim: Destruction of RU Buk M3 SAM system claimed by 65th Mech Bde (Sternenko).
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for evacuation group of 10th Coy, DShP (Colonelcassad).
Kupyansk Axis:
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for recon unit of 352nd MRR (Dva Mayora).
Siversk Axis:
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for "Volki" Brigade (Colonelcassad).
Donetsk Front (Occupied Areas):
Multiple RU sources report alleged UA strikes on Donetsk City during the ceasefire period. UA sources call it a provocation.
IV. Capabilities & Logistics (Summary of New Points)
Ukrainian:
Claimed Strike Capability: Destruction of high-value RU asset (Buk M3 SAM) claimed in Zaporizhzhia direction (Sternenko). Southern Forces report significant RU losses (Apr 19). OTU Kharkiv reports significant RU losses (Apr 19-20).
Logistics Needs: Fundraising continues for basic necessities like field camp beds (RBC-Ukraina). Drone delivery used for morale items (Paskas) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Drone Ops: Active use of FPVs for deep strikes claimed (Sternenko).
Russian:
Logistics Needs: Public appeals highlight specific equipment shortages for units on multiple axes: ATVs, advanced drones (Matrice 30T, Mavic 3T), signal boosters (Kupyansk); body armor, helmets, medical supplies (Siversk, Zaporizhzhia). Indicates reliance on volunteer networks for essential gear.
SAM Systems: Potential loss of a Buk M3 system claimed by UA (Zaporizhzhia).
Morale/IO: Continued focus on religious events and icon deliveries for morale (MoD Russia). Active framing of alleged UA ceasefire violations.
Internal Issues: Reports of dissent (protester) and internal violence (murder-suicide) within RU.
V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm:
Contradictory claims persist. RU accuses UA of striking Donetsk, Kreminna, occupied Kherson Oblast during the ceasefire, potentially impacting civilians.
UA accuses RU of staging a provocation in Donetsk.
The declared ceasefire remains largely ineffective on the ground.
Religious/Cultural Sites: RU MoD highlights activities at Saur-Mogila memorial and delivery of icon associated with Tsentr Group. Slivochniy Kapriz claims RU forces occupied Belogorsky Nikolsky Monastery (Kursk).
Information Environment: Continued manipulation noted (Fox News error discussion). Disinformation potential surrounding ceasefire violations.
