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Situation Report

2025-04-20 06:55:59Z
Previous Report (2025-04-20 06:26:34Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Analysis based on intelligence up to Sun Apr 20 06:54:52 2025)

I. Strategic & Information Operations

  • Easter Ceasefire Status (Declared by Russia: Apr 19, 19:00 Kyiv - Apr 21, 01:00 Kyiv):

    • Ineffective / Routinely Violated by Russia: The declared ceasefire is not holding. Confirmed Russian offensive operations, shelling, and drone usage continue across multiple sectors, violating the declared terms.
      • Confirmed RU Violations (18:00 Apr 19 - 06:00 Apr 20): 446 Russian shelling incidents, 24 Russian ground assaults, and significant drone usage recorded (Sources: Zelenskyy citing Syrskyi, GSh ZSU, Shef Hayabusa, Butusov Plus). Specific RU ground assaults occurred post-ceasefire start on Pokrovsk/Novopavlivsk, Zaporizhzhia (Stepove), and Siversk/Lyman/Kupyansk axes. RU artillery/drone use also confirmed in Kursk Oblast during the ceasefire.
      • Civilian Impact: Confirmed civilian death (M, b. 1967) in Stanislav, Kherson Oblast from a Russian attack after the declared ceasefire commenced (19:12 Apr 19).
    • Ukrainian Position: Conducting defensive operations and responding proportionally ("mirror actions") only to active Russian attacks. The prior Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day ceasefire remains contingent on Russian compliance (Sources: Zelenskyy, OSU "Khortytsia").
    • Russian IO / Claims: RU sources acknowledge continued fighting but frame it as "returning fire." Ceasefire portrayed as a Russian goodwill gesture undermined by Ukraine/West, potentially aimed at US audiences (Trump). Some RU sources noted localized quiet periods. RU sources allege Ukrainian violations (FPV use in border regions, strike on Donetsk city) during the ceasefire. (RU claims require verification).
    • International Reaction: EU remains skeptical; US Congressman Wilson denounces Putin. Western media analysis (amplified by RU sources) suggests the ceasefire announcement creates political difficulties for Ukraine, potentially framing UA defensive actions negatively for US audiences (Sources: RBC, Tsaplienko, CNN via RVvoenkor, Rybar).

  • Information Operations & Morale:

    • Religious/Holiday Themes: Both sides utilize Easter messaging extensively for morale, national unity, and reinforcing narratives (Multiple UA/RU sources). RU MoD highlights Easter services/cake distribution for "Center," "Sever," and "Vostok" Groups. Akhmat leader Alaudinov issues Easter message. Voenkor Kotenok invokes fallen commanders.
    • Ukrainian Morale Initiative: Over 6,000 blessed Easter cakes (Paskas) successfully delivered to frontline defenders, including commanders in high-intensity zones, emphasizing spiritual unity and support (Sources: Naiev via Operatyvnyi ZSU / Shtirlits). Prisoner exchange video continues to circulate, highlighting emotional impact (RBC).
    • Russian IO:
      • Video claims large number of deceased UA soldiers' bodies in Guevo, Kursk Oblast (Propaganda, requires verification).
      • Claims UA TCC detaining men near churches during Easter (Unverified, targets UA mobilization).
      • Amplification of Fox News broadcast error labeling St. Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery as "Kyiv, Russia" (Disinformation targeting US audience, reinforcing territorial claims).
      • Release of RU pilot photos, one showing provocative potential target list ("NATO HQ," "Brussels") (Signalling/PsyOp).
      • Reports from occupied Horlivka portraying normalcy (WarGonzo).
    • Observed IO Conflict: Simultaneous conflicting posts blaming opposing sides for ceasefire violations (Shef Hayabusa).

  • Global Military Developments:

    • Russian Presence in Syria: RU airbase at El-Qamishli remains operational, no signs of withdrawal, confirming continued RU commitment outside Ukraine (Colonelcassad).
    • PLA Drone Adaptation: Reports indicate China's PLA is training with fiber-optic kamikaze drones, citing lessons learned from the Ukraine war (Potential tactic proliferation/adaptation) (Colonelcassad).

II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact

  • Naval Threat:
    • Black Sea: One Russian Kalibr carrier (up to 6 missiles) remains on combat duty. No assets in Sea of Azov.
    • Mediterranean Sea: Two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles) remain present.
    • Kerch Strait: Russia continues violating SOLAS by disabling AIS on transiting vessels.
    • Assessment: Sustained direct and over-the-horizon missile threat persists.
  • Overall Russian Strikes (Apr 19 - GSh ZSU 08:00 Apr 20):
    • Intensity: 127 combat engagements. High volume of strikes persisted throughout Apr 19.
    • Air Strikes: 103 strikes using 170 KABs. Confirmed targets include Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
    • Drone Attacks: 2,781 kamikaze drones employed.
    • Artillery/MLRS: 5,912 shellings, including 115 MLRS attacks.
  • Overnight Activity (Apr 19/20):
    • RU claims of no overnight air strikes and UA stopping alerts are false/disinformation, contradicted by GSh reports and confirmed ceasefire violations. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported a quiet night following earlier evening strikes (Lysak).
  • Recent Regional Strikes (Prioritizing Civilian Impact):
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h): Sustained high activity across 18 settlements (389 total strikes reported by OVA). 1 civilian WIA (42M). Air strikes confirmed on Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, Novodarivka, Lukyanivske, Pavlivka, Stepnohirsk, Kamyanske, Novoyakovlivka. RU claims Shahed target was vehicle repair facility (Requires verification).
    • Kharkiv Oblast (Apr 19): Multiple KAB strikes on Kupyansk city damaged homes, caused fire, resulted in 1 civilian WIA (62F) and 2 civilians with acute stress reaction. MLRS strike caused forest fire near Novoplatonivka.
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 19 Eve): MLRS strike damaged 7 homes, power line (Velykomykhailivska hromada). UAV munition drop (Marhanets hromada). No casualties reported from these incidents.
    • Kherson Oblast (Apr 19 Eve): Civilian man (b. 1967) KIA in Stanislav from RU attack at 19:12, after declared ceasefire start.
  • Specific Russian Strike Claims (Recent Hours - Require Verification):
    • Destruction of UA shelter in Bohatyr (Volnovakha Raion) (Voin_DV, Apr 20 04:15).
    • Destruction of UA M113 APC + troops in Bohatyr (Voin_DV, Apr 20 06:00).
    • Destruction of UA mortar crew, Starlink, personnel on Vremivka direction (Colonelcassad, Apr 20 04:03).
    • Destruction of UA pickup near Podoly (Kupyansk Dist.) (Colonelcassad, Apr 20).
    • Extensive drone strikes near Donetsk targeting UA logistics, armor, arty, comms, personnel, shelters, drones (Colonelcassad, Apr 20 05:45).
    • Destruction of UA AGS near Otradne (Novopavlivsk Axis) (Colonelcassad, Apr 20 06:35).
  • Ukrainian Strikes (Apr 19 - GSh ZSU 08:00 Apr 20):
    • Targeted 15 RU concentration areas, 3 UAV CPs, 2 AD systems, 5 missile/arty systems. Active MLRS use confirmed visually (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
    • Southern Defence Forces Update (Apr 19): Claimed destruction/damage of 59 RU personnel, 11 arty systems, 20 vehicles/APCs, 12 recon UAVs, 1 EW station, 3 boats, 7 motorcycles, multiple antennas (UAV control, comms, Starlink), 2 ammo stores. Destroyed 55 RU shelters/bunkers, 1 firing position.

III. Axis Updates (Focus on Recent Changes & Claims)

(Based on GSh ZSU 08:00 Apr 20; Zelenskyy/Syrskyi/Hayabusa Ceasefire Violation Reports; RU Claims from Rybar, Dva Mayora, Voin DV, Dnevnik Desantnika, etc.)

  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
    • Apr 19: 39 RU attacks repelled across numerous settlements.
    • Apr 20 (Early): Part of 3 RU ground assaults occurred during ceasefire (OTU Donetsk).
    • RU Claims: Renewed offensive reported, attacking outskirts of Myrolyubivka. "Rubikon" group claims extensive drone strikes in the wider area.
    • UA Presence: 47th Mech Bde confirms operating in trenches near Pokrovsk.
  • Toretsk Axis:
    • Apr 19: 18 RU attacks repelled (Increased intensity vs Apr 17/18).
    • RU Claims: Advancing near Tarasivka, N of Kalynove, Sukha Balka, and Valentynivka. RU sources claimed capture of Valentynivka, Panteleimonivka, Aleksandropol and advances near Sukha Balka (Apr 17), raising questions about current control status. Krasnopol strike claimed on UA stronghold near Toretsk (Apr 19).
  • Lyman Axis:
    • Apr 19: 14 clashes. RU attempts repelled near Novomykhailivka, Nove, Yampilivka, and towards Torske, Hrekivka, etc.
    • RU Claims: Fighting initiated for Nove settlement and near Katerynivka. Claimed advances towards Mirne and Kolodyazi (Apr 17).
  • Kupyansk Axis:
    • Apr 19: 7 RU attacks repelled.
    • RU Claims: Heavy fighting near Stepova Novoselivka. Claimed expansion of control on Oskil River's west bank N of Kupyansk. Fighting for Mala Shapkivka to cut UA supply lines. Drone strike claimed destroying UA pickup near Podoly.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):
    • Apr 19: 12 RU attacks repelled (Increased intensity).
    • Apr 20 (Early): Part of 3 RU ground assaults occurred during ceasefire (OTU Donetsk).
    • RU Claims: Continued push towards Otradne and Bohatyr. Drone strikes claimed destroying UA shelter & M113 APC in Bohatyr, mortar/Starlink/personnel on Vremivka salient, AGS near Otradne. Claimed capture of Turkish Kirpi MRAP (Apr 17).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
    • Apr 19: 3 RU attacks repelled.
    • Apr 20 (Early): 1 RU ground assault near Stepove during ceasefire.
    • RU Claims: Advancing near Shcherbaky and towards Orikhiv. Claimed entry into Mala Tokmachka and consolidation near Novodanylivka. RU acknowledges heavy UA FPV drone use hinders operations ("catastrophic numbers"). RU FPV strike damaged water truck in Stepnohirsk (Apr 17).
    • Logistics: RU crowdfunding for Mavic night drone ongoing. RU reports indicate Ukraine using ceasefire for regrouping/resupply in this sector (Dnevnik Desantnika, 06:28).
  • Kramatorsk Axis:
    • Apr 19: 7 RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Kurdyumivka. RU claimed destruction of UA column near Chasiv Yar (Apr 17).
  • Siversk Axis:
    • Apr 19: 2 RU attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske.
    • Apr 20 (Early): 1 RU ground assault reported in OTU "Starobilsk" during ceasefire (axis unspecified).
  • Kharkiv Axis:
    • Apr 19: 2 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Mala Shapkivka.
    • Apr 20 (OTU Kharkiv 06:38): Over past 24h, 2 RU air strikes (2 KABs), 100 kamikaze drones, 648 shellings reported. 2 RU assaults near Vovchansk / Mala Shapkivka repelled. Claimed RU losses: 51 personnel (24 KIA), 1 APC, 4 Arty, 21 vehicles, 7 spec eq, 1 EW, 73 UAVs. Destroyed 96 RU shelters, 7 ammo stores.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson):
    • Apr 19: No RU offensive actions reported by GSh ZSU.
    • Civilian Casualty: Man KIA in Stanislav post-ceasefire start (Apr 19). Ambulance crew WIA by drone (Apr 17).
    • RU Claims: Allege UA forces active near Oleshky (Apr 20 04:05); Claim UA strikes on occupied settlements (Saldo).
  • Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone:
    • Apr 19: 20 RU attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast by UA forces. High volume RU strikes.
    • Apr 20 (Early): RU artillery/drone use confirmed in Kursk Oblast during ceasefire.
    • RU Claims: Fighting continues near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod). Question earlier MoD claim of capturing Oleshnia (Kursk) as "premature." Claim ongoing UA strikes on RU border regions. Claim UA FPV use during ceasefire. Claim large number of UA bodies left in Guevo (Kursk). RU claim repelled UA assault near Popovka (Apr 17). RU internal issues with border fortification funds noted (Apr 17).

IV. Capabilities & Logistics

  • Ukrainian:
    • Defense: Repelled 103/127 RU ground attacks (Apr 19); Repelled 5 RU assaults during early ceasefire hours (Apr 20). OTU Kharkiv reports repelling 2 RU assaults (Apr 19).
    • Offense/Strikes: Hit multiple RU concentration areas, CPs, AD, Arty (Apr 19). Southern Forces report significant RU losses inflicted (Apr 19). Active use of MLRS confirmed. Claimed RU losses by OTU Kharkiv (Apr 19-20).
    • Drones: High RU drone usage necessitates countermeasures. Acknowledged by RU sources as significantly hindering RU operations (Zaporizhzhia). RU claims UA FPV use in border regions during ceasefire. UA claims destroying 73 RU UAVs (Kharkiv Axis).
    • Logistics/Comms: RU targeting persists (Starlink, vehicles claimed hit). Successful Paska delivery boosts morale. POW exchange boosts morale. Ongoing fundraising appeals (Sternenko).
    • Alleged Ceasefire Activity (RU Claim): RU source claims UA used ceasefire for regrouping and resupply near frontlines (Dnevnik Desantnika, 06:28).
    • Claimed Losses (by RU): M113 APC (Bohatyr), pickup (Podoly), various vehicles/arty/comms near Donetsk, mortar crew (Vremivka), AGS (Otradne). Tank, armored vehicles near Chasiv Yar (Apr 17). Kozak MRAP (Kursk Border, Apr 17). Turkish Kirpi MRAP captured (South Donetsk, Apr 17).
  • Russian:
    • Strike Capability: Maintained high strike tempo (KABs, drones, arty) through Apr 19. Sustained naval missile threat. Continued use of drones for targeting confirmed (Bohatyr, Vremivka, Podoly, Donetsk area, Otradne).
    • Ground Offensives: Conducted numerous ground assaults (Apr 19); continued assaults despite ceasefire (Apr 20). Claims advances across multiple axes.
    • Information Operations: Active across multiple themes (See Section I).
    • Logistics: High UA drone threat impacts RU drone ops (Zaporizhzhia). Need for night drones identified (Zaporizhzhia). MoD highlights Easter cake logistics for troops. Pilot photos show use of supplemental GPS/flashlights.
    • Internal Issues: Report of murder-suicide involving conscript/contractor near St. Petersburg highlights potential morale/discipline issues (Butusov Plus, Apr 20). Kursk border fortification embezzlement investigation ongoing (Apr 17). Reports of increased treason/anti-war convictions (Apr 17).

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

  • Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm: Confirmed RU attacks during declared ceasefire resulted in civilian death (Stanislav) and continued strikes endanger civilians. RU claims UA strikes hit Donetsk during ceasefire.
  • Civilian Casualties/Damage (Recent):
    • Kherson: 1 KIA (Stanislav, Apr 19 post-ceasefire). Ambulance crew WIA (Apr 17).
    • Kharkiv: 1 WIA, 2 stress reactions (Kupyansk, Apr 19). Extensive home damage. 17 WIA (Izium/Oskil, Apr 16).
    • Zaporizhzhia: 1 WIA (Apr 19). Water truck hit (Apr 17).
    • Dnipropetrovsk: Homes/power line damaged (Apr 19 Eve). 3 KIA (incl. child), 31 WIA (incl. children) from Shahed strike (Apr 16).
    • Donetsk (RU Claims): RU sources allege UA strike on Donetsk city center / gas station / cemetery area during ceasefire morning (Apr 20). Requires verification.
  • Targeting Practices: Documented RU strikes hitting residential areas (Kupyansk, Stanislav, Dnipro). RU claim of targeting alleged military repair facility needs verification. Claims of targeting shelters/positions risk civilian harm. Targeting of ambulance/water truck confirmed (Apr 17).
  • SOLAS Violations: Ongoing RU disabling of AIS in Kerch Strait.
  • Treatment of Fallen: RU IO element regarding alleged UA bodies in Kursk.
  • POWs: Successful exchange (Apr 19) continues to be highlighted. Coordination HQ Easter message emphasizes return of defenders.
  • Alleged War Crime Statement: RU unit "Espanola" declared Ukrainian civilians "legitimate targets" (Apr 17).
  • RU Internal Dissent: Report of single anti-war protester in Khabarovsk (ASTRA, Apr 20). Report of RU conscript/contractor deaths near St. Petersburg (Butusov Plus, Apr 20).
Previous Report (2025-04-20 06:26:34Z)