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Situation Report

2025-04-08 09:41:35Z
Previous Report (2025-04-08 09:11:19Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 8, 2025, 09:40 UTC

(Analysis based on information received up to 09:40 UTC, incorporating updates since 09:10 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Strategic Assessment

  • Combat Intensity: Remains high across the front, particularly Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Kursk axes. Ground assaults ongoing. The operational situation in the Kharkiv operational zone is reported as complex but stable by OTU "Kharkiv".
  • Russian Strike Activity: Significant volume continues.
    • Immediate Air Threats (Update):
      • Ballistic Missile Threat: Ended (UA AF, 08:53 UTC).
      • Air Raid Alert: Zaporizhzhia Oblast alert (08:35 UTC) remains active.
      • Russian tactical aviation threat persists on southeastern direction and for frontline oblasts.
    • Overnight Attack (Apr 7-8): Details unchanged (1 Iskander-M launched/not intercepted, 46 Shahed/Decoys launched, 9 Shahed/Strike UAVs intercepted, 31 decoys locationally lost). Impacts confirmed Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk. Alleged FAB impacts in Pokrovsk city.
    • Kharkiv Operational Zone (Past 24h - OTU "Kharkiv", 09:13 UTC): 1 RU missile strike, 3 air strikes (8 KABs), 86 kamikaze drones launched, 654 shelling attacks on UA positions.
  • Russian Air Defense Claims / Ukrainian Drone Activity: Details largely unchanged from 09:10 UTC report. RU claims 23 UA UAVs downed (Kursk, Belgorod). RU claims >35 UA drone attacks (Belgorod). 2 Teenagers WIA (Borki, Belgorod). RU claims destroying UA heavy drones near Kursk border.
  • Russian Ground Force Claims & Activity (Highlights - Incorporating Updates):
    • Multiple Axes: Ongoing offensive claims: Zaporizhzhia (towards Orikhiv), Pokrovsk, Lyman (Torske), Toretsk (Ozaryanivka claimed advance), South Donetsk, Kursk/Belgorod.
    • Kursk/Belgorod Border:
      • Huyevo (Kursk): Claim of full liberation reinforced by video, summary map (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC) and explicit claim by RVvoenkor (09:33 UTC) attributing it to "Sever" Group defeating UA SSO/129 TerO. This directly contradicts UA claims/actions near Loknya.
      • RU Claims of Colombian Mercenaries: RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:21 UTC) claim Colombian mercenaries transferred to Sumy Oblast, present near Hornal (Kursk border), acting as assault/blocking units. Claim UA Cmdr Avagyan (47th Bde) confirmed presence and expects 200 more in April. Claim ~80 Colombians KIA total in Ukraine.
      • Claim Destruction of UA Stryker APC & Evac Group near Malaya Rybitsa (Belgorod direction) via Inokhodets UAV (Colonelcassad, 08:23 UTC).
    • Chasiv Yar: Claim control over northern shore of Dniprovsky pond (Kanal microdistrict) persists.
    • Lyman: Katerynivka capture confirmed (reiterated by RU sources). Claimed advance into northern Torske persists.
    • Siversk: Claim expanded zone of control near Verkhnokamyanske (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC).
    • Toretsk: Claim advance in the area of Ozaryanivka (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC).
    • Pokrovsk: Claim Shevchenko fully under RU control (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC). Contradicts earlier UA DeepState report.
    • Dniproenerhiya Claim (MoD RU, 09:23 UTC): RU MoD claims liberation of "Dniproenerhiya" (DPR - specific location unclear, potentially Vuhlehirsk thermal power plant area or another site named similarly). Claims UA forces had poor support and surrendered readily. Associated claim of 160 UA troop losses, 2 AFV, 3 vehicles, 5 arty (incl. 2 Caesar, 2 Bohdana). The Bohdana loss claim here conflicts with earlier RU claim placing Bohdana loss on Orikhiv axis.
    • Zaporizhzhia: Claims destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG and 2 pickups via FPV (Colonelcassad, 08:49 UTC, Antagonist group - This claim conflicts with MoD RU claim linking Bohdana losses to Dniproenerhiya). Claims destruction of damaged UA BMP via FPV (Kotsnews, 09:05 UTC, ZVENO group). Previous claims of advances near Novodanylivka/Pavlivka towards Orikhiv persist.
    • Novopavlivsk/South Donetsk: RU source posted old (Apr 1) claim of 1.5km advance near Velyka Novosilka / Burlatske (Slivochniy Kapriz, 08:52 UTC). New RU claim (Dva Mayora, 09:22 UTC): 37th Omsbr successfully assaulted/cleared UA stronghold North of Novyi Komar, despite UA FPV activity.
  • Ukrainian Ground Force Reports & Counterclaims (Highlights - Incorporating Updates):
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Contradictory situation in Shevchenko. UA DeepState previously reported pushing RU back; RU now claims full control. Heavy fighting continues.
    • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone:
      • Loknya (Kursk Oblast, Russia): UA SSO (4th Ranger Rgt) repelled RU raid (approx 8 pers on quad bikes) on Apr 6, capturing 1 PoW (DeepState, 09:30 UTC). Video released. RU forces reportedly entered via Basivka. DeepState assesses RU may attempt further raids and is clarifying situation in Basivka. This action counters RU narrative of full control in nearby Huyevo.
      • UGS previously reported repelling 21 RU attacks (Kursk zone).
      • Akhmat Commander KIA Claim: UA claims elimination of Georgy Kostyrko ("Varyag"), commander in Akhmat 204th Spetsnaz Regt, during "Truba" operation in Kursk Oblast via cluster munitions (Operativnyi ZSU, 09:18 UTC).
    • Kupyansk Axis: Confirmed repel of RU attack involving modified "turtle tank" (log armor) and BMP by UA Achilles Rgt, 43rd Mech Bde, Bureviy NG Bde (Butusov Plus, 08:42 UTC). Confirms ongoing clashes reported by UGS.
    • Toretsk Axis: RU claim of advance near Ozaryanivka noted. Previous UA claim of destroying 2 BMPs stands.
    • Orikhiv Axis: RU claims destruction of Bohdana SPG, BMP, pickups noted (Conflicting RU reports on Bohdana location). Previous UA report of repelling 8 RU assaults stands.
    • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): No change reported. UA maintaining positions, clearing ops, captured PoW.
    • Kharkiv Axis: OTU "Kharkiv" reports complex but controlled situation. Claims significant RU losses inflicted over past 24h (see Losses section). Butusov Plus released interview with captured RU POW (Klochnev Valeriy "Tambov", 25th Omsbr) captured Mar 30 on Kharkiv direction, alleging forced contract, poor treatment. (09:27 UTC).
  • Confirmed/Contested Territorial Control Changes (Recent Key Points - Updated):
    • Katerynivka (Lyman Axis): Russian control confirmed. (Multiple sources).
    • Torske (Lyman Axis): Russian claim of significant advance into northern part. (Requires Verification).
    • Huyevo (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Russian claim of full liberation heavily reinforced by multiple sources/video/map/explicit claim (RVvoenkor). Contradicted by nearby UA actions/claims in Loknya area.
    • Loknya (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Ukrainian forces repelled RU raid on Apr 6, captured PoW. (DeepState). RU forces do not hold Loknya.
    • Basivka (Sumy Oblast): Status requires clarification. DeepState reports RU forces likely used it as entry point for Loknya raid, situation being monitored. Previous reports contested.
    • Shevchenko (Pokrovsk Axis): Contested. RU claims full control (Colonelcassad). UA previously claimed pushback (DeepState).
    • Ozaryanivka Area (Toretsk Axis): RU claim of advance. (Colonelcassad, Requires Verification).
    • Verkhnokamyanske Area (Siversk Axis): RU claim of expanded control zone. (Colonelcassad, Requires Verification).
    • Dniproenerhiya (DPR): RU claim of liberation. (MoD RU, Requires Location Verification/Clarification).
    • North of Novyi Komar (South Donetsk Axis): RU claim of capturing UA stronghold. (Dva Mayora, Requires Verification).
    • Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Axis): Russian forces advanced within Chasiv Yar (near Kanal microdistrict).
    • Stepove (Orikhiv Axis): Russian forces advanced into western part. Ongoing storming claimed.
  • Technological Developments & Tactics (Updates):
    • Russian: Use of modified "turtle tanks" with log armor observed (Kupyansk). Continued FPV strikes claimed (Bohdana SPG, BMP, pickups, Stryker APC). RU sources claim using FPV to interfere with UA drones (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU sources highlight TOS flamethrower systems. Turkey/Azerbaijan Su-25/SOM missile integration confirmed. Use of quad bikes for rapid raids (Loknya).
    • Ukrainian: Successful engagement of RU modified tank/BMP attack (Kupyansk). UA SSO used UAVs/artillery support in Loknya engagement. FPV drone procurement continues at scale via crowdfunding (Sternenko).
  • Claimed Losses (Highlights - Updates):
    • Russian Losses (UA Claims):
      • Kharkiv Axis (Past 24h - OTU "Kharkiv"): 50 personnel (20 KIA), 2 tanks, 1 BBM, 3 arty systems, 7 vehicles, 10 units spec equipment, 56 UAVs, 1 EW system, 97 shelters, 1 ammo depot.
      • Kursk Oblast: Claimed elimination of Akhmat Cmdr Georgy Kostyrko "Varyag" (Operativnyi ZSU).
      • Previous UGS figures (+1290 pers, etc.), specific claims (2 BMPs Toretsk, 6 UAVs Azov, VDV KIA Kursk, 2 Pantsir) stand.
    • Ukrainian Losses Claimed (RU - New Claims):
      • Dniproenerhiya Area (MoD RU): ~160 troops, 2 AFVs, 3 vehicles, 5 arty systems (incl. 2 Caesar, 2x 2S22 Bohdana). Note: Location needs verification, Bohdana claim conflicts with Colcassad claim below.
      • Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia Area (Colonelcassad): 1x 2S22 Bohdana SPG, 2x pickups. Conflicts with MoD RU claim above.
      • Zaporizhzhia Area (Kotsnews): 1x BMP (damaged, finished off by drone).
      • Belgorod Direction (Colonelcassad): 1x Stryker APC & Evac Group.
      • Colombian Mercenaries (RU claims): ~80 total KIA reported by Colombian ambassador in Moscow. Video purports to show one KIA in Krasnohorivka.
      • Previous claims (~100 KIA/BTR Zaporizhzhia; BREM-1 Belgorod; MK-19/vehicles Zaporizhzhia; Repeater) stand.
  • Strategic Communication & Information Warfare (Updates):
    • UA Military Pay: UA MoF refutation of RU claims of budget shortfall impacting pay stands.
    • RU Narratives: Continue pushing Huyevo liberation, Sudzha PoW testimony, territorial gains (map updates). Promote Ukraina.ru channel. Highlight TOS effectiveness. Claim specific UA equipment losses via drone videos. Claim liberation of Dniproenerhiya, highlighting alleged poor UA support/morale. Claim presence/losses of Colombian mercenaries in Sumy/Kursk border area. Claim prevention of youth terror attacks linked to Ukraine. Basurin commentary amplifies Finnish FM warning against EU calls to Putin, framing it as US control.
    • UA Narratives: Highlight successful defense against modified RU tank (Kupyansk). Publicize details of FSB agent indictment in Kharkiv. Emphasize denial of military pay issues. Release video of Loknya engagement countering RU control narrative. Publicize PoW interview detailing alleged forced conscription/poor treatment in RU army (Kharkiv direction). Publicize KIA claim of Akhmat commander (Kursk). MFA refutes US Congresswoman Spartz's suggestion to accept territorial loss.
  • Counter-Intelligence / Sabotage (Update):
    • Kharkiv FSB Agent Case: SBU/Prosecutor details released confirm indictment of alleged agent Valeriy Kanibolotskyi, accused of murder, sabotage, planned assassinations of OVA Head Syniehubov and Derhachi MVA Head Zadorenko. Apprehended Oct 2024. Details reiterated by RBC-Ukraina (09:23 UTC).
  • Personnel / Morale (Updates):
    • Russian: PoW interview (Klochnev, 25th Omsbr) alleges forced contract signing (due to criminal record), poor treatment, lack of patriotism, use as cannon fodder (Butusov Plus). RU claims use of Colombian mercenaries near Sumy/Kursk border (Hornal) as assault/blocking units, claims ~80 KIA overall. Claim KIA of Akhmat Cmdr "Varyag" (Kursk).
    • Ukrainian: Meeting held in Kharkiv for families of MIA/POW from 116th OMBr (Coordination HQ PoW). 425th Separate Assault Regiment is expanding, forming "SKALA DNIPRO" battalion within its structure (Lysak, Dnipro ODA). MFA refutes comments by US Congresswoman Spartz potentially impacting morale/resolve.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Updates)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (Intensity High; 21 Clashes prev reported by UGS):
    • Huyevo/Hornal/Oleshnia/Loknya (Kursk): RU claim full liberation of Huyevo heavily reinforced (video, map, RVvoenkor claim). UA repelled RU raid on Loknya Apr 6, captured PoW (DeepState/UA SSO). RU likely entered via Basivka, may try again. Fierce fighting ongoing near Hornal/Oleshnia previously reported.
    • RU Losses Claimed: UA claim elimination of Akhmat Cmdr "Varyag". Previous claim destruction/death of RU Pskov VDV paratrooper persists.
    • UA Losses Claimed (RU): Claim destruction of UA Stryker APC & Evac Group near Malaya Rybitsa (Belgorod direction, Colonelcassad). Previous claim of BREM-1 near Demidovka.
    • Foreign Fighters: RU claims Colombian mercenaries present near Hornal (assault/blocking units), expecting reinforcements, suffering casualties (~80 KIA total reported by Colombian Amb.).
    • Basivka: Status unclear, requires clarification; DeepState suggests RU used it as entry for Loknya raid.
  • Kupyansk Axis (4 Clashes prev - UGS):
    • Confirmed UA defense: UA forces repelled RU attack using modified "turtle tank" with log armor and BMP near Pishchane/Kruhliakivka/Zahryzove areas.
  • Lyman Axis (21 Clashes prev - UGS):
    • Katerynivka: Russian control confirmed. RU sources reiterate.
    • Torske: RU claim significant advance into northern part persists. (Requires Verification).
  • Siversk Axis (3 Clashes prev - UGS):
    • RU claims expanded control zone near Verkhnokamyanske (Colonelcassad).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (3 Clashes prev - UGS) (incl. Chasiv Yar):
    • No significant updates. Previous RU advance near Kanal microdistrict stands.
  • Toretsk Axis (23 Clashes prev - UGS):
    • RU claims advance in the area of Ozaryanivka (Colonelcassad).
  • Pokrovsk Axis (52 Clashes prev - UGS): Highest Intensity.
    • Shevchenko: Contested. RU claims full control (Colonelcassad), contradicting earlier UA DeepState report.
    • Dniproenerhiya Area: RU MoD claims liberation (Location uncertain). Associated claims of high UA losses (incl. 2 Bohdana SPGs).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (12 Clashes prev - UGS):
    • RU claims successful assault/clearing of UA stronghold N of Novyi Komar by 37th Omsbr (Dva Mayora).
    • RU source posted old (Apr 1) claim of 1.5km advance near Velyka Novosilka / Burlatske. Previous UGS reports of clashes near Bohatyr/Kostiantynopil/Rozlyv/Skudne stand.
  • Huliaipole Axis (2 Clashes prev - UGS):
    • No significant updates.
  • Orikhiv Axis (8 Clashes prev - UGS):
    • RU claims destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG and 2 pickups via FPV (Colonelcassad, Antagonist group). Claim destruction of damaged UA BMP via FPV (Kotsnews, ZVENO group). Note: Bohdana claim conflicts with MoD RU claim placing losses near "Dniproenerhiya".
    • Previous UA report of repelling 8 RU assaults stands. RU claims of advances towards Orikhiv and storming Stepove persist.
  • Kharkiv Axis (No Ground Assaults prev - UGS):
    • Situation complex but controlled (OTU Kharkiv). RU continues air/drone/arty attacks (1 missile, 3 air/8 KAB, 86 kamikaze, 654 shelling past 24h).
    • Significant RU Losses Claimed by UA: OTU Kharkiv claims 50 RU pers (20 KIA) and 80 units of equipment destroyed/damaged in past 24h.
    • Counter-Intelligence: Details of FSB agent indictment repeated.
    • RU Morale/Personnel Issues: UA captured RU POW (25th Omsbr) on this axis, interview alleges poor treatment/forced contract.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (No Ground Assaults prev - UGS / SDF South):
    • No change reported.

III. Naval Situation

  • No significant updates since 08:40 UTC report. Black Sea/Azov clear of RU warships. 3 Kalibr carriers (26 missiles) in Mediterranean.

IV. Other Developments

  • Ukrainian Logistics & Capabilities:
    • Military Pay: UA MoF strongly refutes reports of budget shortfalls affecting military pay.
    • Drone Procurement: Crowdfunding continues to supply significant numbers of FPV drones (+534 yesterday, 169k+ total via Sternenko fund).
    • Counter-Intelligence: High-profile alleged FSB agent indictment detailed in Kharkiv.
    • Force Generation/Structure: 425th Separate Assault Regiment expanding with new "SKALA DNIPRO" battalion.
    • Family Support: Coordination HQ holds meeting for families of MIA/POW (116th OMBr) in Kharkiv.
  • Russian Logistics & Capabilities:
    • Turkey/Azerbaijan Cooperation: Integration of Turkish SOM cruise missiles onto Azerbaijani Su-25s confirmed by RU sources.
    • Domestic Production: Chinese company Shacman plans localization of truck production in Russia.
    • Internal Security: RU NAC claims preventing 47 youth terror attacks linked to Ukraine/other groups since start of year.
  • International Relations/Geopolitics (Updates):
    • US Troop Posture: NBC reports US considering withdrawing up to 10,000 troops from Eastern Europe (out of 20,000). Linked potentially to Trump ceasefire efforts. (Repeated by TASS, UA sources).
    • US-Russia Relations: Peskov states Russia represented by MFA at upcoming Istanbul talks with US. Says hard to imagine START-4 talks now due to state of relations. Stresses need to consider other nuclear powers in arms control.
    • EU-Russia Dialogue: Finnish FM warns EU leaders against calling Putin while hostilities continue. Serbian Pres claims secret EU-Putin contacts occurred previously. RU sources frame Finnish FM comments as US pressure.
    • US Politics/Ukraine Support: US Congresswoman Spartz (R-IN, Ukrainian-born) suggests Ukraine accept territorial loss, calls for vote against Zelenskyy; remarks condemned by UA MFA. US Senator Warren mentioned potential Congressional action to roll back Trump-era tariffs (relevant to China trade).
    • US-China Trade: China reiterates threats of countermeasures if US imposes further tariffs.
    • Czech Republic: Reports of alleged hack of PM's social media account spreading disinformation about RU attack near Kaliningrad border (claimed hack, posts deleted). Potential info op.
Previous Report (2025-04-08 09:11:19Z)