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Situation Report

2025-04-08 09:11:19Z
Previous Report (2025-04-08 08:41:15Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 8, 2025, 09:10 UTC

(Analysis based on information received up to 09:10 UTC, incorporating updates since 08:40 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Strategic Assessment

  • Combat Intensity: Remains high across the front, particularly Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Kursk axes. Ground assaults ongoing.
  • Russian Strike Activity: Significant volume continues.
    • Immediate Air Threats (Update):
      • Ballistic Missile Threat (Donetsk Origin): Ended (UA AF, 08:53 UTC).
      • Air Raid Alert: Zaporizhzhia Oblast alert declared earlier (08:35 UTC) remains active (no cancellation noted).
      • Russian tactical aviation threat persists on southeastern direction and for frontline oblasts.
    • Overnight Attack (Apr 7-8): Details unchanged (1 Iskander-M launched/not intercepted, 46 Shahed/Decoys launched, 9 Shahed/Strike UAVs intercepted, 31 decoys locationally lost). Impacts confirmed Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk. Alleged FAB impacts in Pokrovsk city.
  • Russian Air Defense Claims / Ukrainian Drone Activity: Details largely unchanged from 08:40 UTC report. RU claims 23 UA UAVs downed (Kursk, Belgorod). RU claims >35 UA drone attacks (Belgorod). 2 Teenagers WIA (Borki, Belgorod). RU claims destroying UA heavy drones near Kursk border.
  • Russian Ground Force Claims & Activity (Highlights - Incorporating Updates):
    • Multiple Axes: Ongoing offensive claims: Zaporizhzhia (towards Orikhiv), Pokrovsk, Lyman (Torske), Toretsk (Ozaryanivka claimed advance), South Donetsk, Kursk/Belgorod.
    • Kursk/Belgorod Border:
      • Huyevo (Kursk): Claim of full liberation reinforced by video (flag on church ruins) and summary map (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC). Still contradicted by UA claim of attacks near Loknya.
      • Claim Destruction of UA Stryker APC & Evac Group near Malaya Rybitsa (Belgorod direction) via Inokhodets UAV (Colonelcassad, 08:23 UTC). (Previous claim was BREM-1 near Demidovka).
    • Chasiv Yar: Claim control over northern shore of Dniprovsky pond (Kanal microdistrict) persists.
    • Lyman: Katerynivka capture confirmed (reiterated by RU sources). Claimed advance into northern Torske persists.
    • Siversk: Claim expanded zone of control near Verkhnokamyanske (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC).
    • Toretsk: Claim advance in the area of Ozaryanivka (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC).
    • Pokrovsk: Claim Shevchenko fully under RU control (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC). This directly contradicts earlier UA DeepState report of pushing RU forces back.
    • Zaporizhzhia: Claims destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG and 2 pickups via FPV (Colonelcassad, 08:49 UTC, Antagonist group). Claims destruction of damaged UA BMP via FPV (Kotsnews, 09:05 UTC, ZVENO group). Previous claims of advances near Novodanylivka/Pavlivka towards Orikhiv persist.
    • Novopavlivsk/South Donetsk: RU source posted old (Apr 1) claim of 1.5km advance near Velyka Novosilka / Burlatske (Slivochniy Kapriz, 08:52 UTC). Relevance to current situation unclear.
  • Ukrainian Ground Force Reports & Counterclaims (Highlights - Incorporating Updates):
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Contradictory situation in Shevchenko. UA DeepState previously reported pushing RU back; RU now claims full control. Heavy fighting continues.
    • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: UGS reported repelling 21 RU attacks (Kursk zone). UA claim of offensive action near Loknya/capturing PoWs remains significant counterpoint to RU claims of pushing UA out of Huyevo. Fierce fighting ongoing. UA claim destruction of RU VDV paratrooper persists.
    • Kupyansk Axis: Confirmed repel of RU attack involving modified "turtle tank" (log armor) and BMP by UA Achilles Rgt, 43rd Mech Bde, Bureviy NG Bde (Butusov Plus, 08:42 UTC). Confirms ongoing clashes reported by UGS.
    • Toretsk Axis: RU claim of advance near Ozaryanivka noted. Previous UA claim of destroying 2 BMPs stands.
    • Orikhiv Axis: RU claims destruction of Bohdana SPG, BMP, pickups noted. Previous UA report of repelling 8 RU assaults stands.
    • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): No change reported. UA maintaining positions, clearing ops, captured PoW.
  • Confirmed/Contested Territorial Control Changes (Recent Key Points - Updated):
    • Katerynivka (Lyman Axis): Russian control confirmed. (Multiple sources).
    • Torske (Lyman Axis): Russian claim of significant advance into northern part. (Requires Verification).
    • Huyevo (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Russian claim of full liberation reinforced by multiple sources/video/map. Contradicted by UA claim of attacks near Loknya.
    • Loknya (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Ukrainian claim of attack towards Loknya, capturing PoWs. (Requires Verification). Contradicts RU claims.
    • Shevchenko (Pokrovsk Axis): Contested. RU claims full control (Colonelcassad). UA previously claimed pushback (DeepState).
    • Ozaryanivka Area (Toretsk Axis): RU claim of advance. (Colonelcassad, Requires Verification).
    • Verkhnokamyanske Area (Siversk Axis): RU claim of expanded control zone. (Colonelcassad, Requires Verification).
    • Basivka (Sumy Oblast, Russia): Contested. UA claims control, RU claims liberation.
    • Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Axis): Russian forces advanced within Chasiv Yar (near Kanal microdistrict).
    • Stepove (Orikhiv Axis): Russian forces advanced into western part. Ongoing storming claimed.
  • Technological Developments & Tactics (Updates):
    • Russian: Use of modified "turtle tanks" with log armor observed on Kupyansk axis. Continued FPV strikes claimed (Bohdana SPG, BMP, pickups, potentially Stryker APC). RU sources claim using FPV to interfere with UA drones (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU sources highlight TOS flamethrower systems. Turkey/Azerbaijan Su-25/SOM missile integration confirmed by RU sources.
    • Ukrainian: Successful engagement of RU modified tank/BMP attack on Kupyansk axis using drones confirmed (Achilles, 43rd Mech, Bureviy NG). Previous claims (Pantsir destruction, UAV downings, Impuls C2, etc.) stand.
  • Claimed Losses (Highlights - Updates):
    • Russian Losses: UGS figures (+1290 pers, etc.) unchanged. Specific claims (2 BMPs Toretsk, 6 UAVs Azov, VDV KIA Kursk, 2 Pantsir) unchanged.
    • Ukrainian Losses Claimed (RU - New Claims): 1x 2S22 Bohdana SPG, 2x pickups (Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia, Colonelcassad). 1x BMP (damaged, finished off by drone) (Zaporizhzhia, Kotsnews). 1x Stryker APC & Evac Group (Belgorod direction, Colonelcassad). Previous claims (~100 KIA/BTR Zaporizhzhia; BREM-1 Belgorod; MK-19/vehicles Zaporizhzhia; Repeater) stand.
  • Strategic Communication & Information Warfare (Updates):
    • UA Military Pay: RU sources circulated claims of UA budget shortfall impacting military pay (Operatsiya Z, 08:29 UTC). UA Ministry of Finance officially refuted these claims, stating funds are secured in the 2025 budget and payments are on schedule (RBC-Ukraina 08:57, Operatyvnyi ZSU 09:04 UTC).
    • RU Narratives: Continue pushing Huyevo liberation, Sudzha PoW testimony, territorial gains (map updates). Promote Ukraina.ru channel via alleged soldiers. Highlight TOS system effectiveness. Claim specific UA equipment losses via drone videos.
    • UA Narratives: Highlight successful defense against modified RU tank (Kupyansk). Publicize details of FSB agent indictment in Kharkiv. Emphasize denial of military pay issues.
  • Counter-Intelligence / Sabotage (Update):
    • Kharkiv FSB Agent Case: SBU/Prosecutor details released confirm indictment of alleged agent (Valeriy Kanibolotskyi, 55yo Crimean native residing in Belgorod). Accused of: murdering UA soldier (Feb 2024), M67 grenade attack on Shevchenkivskyi district admin (Mar 2024), explosive attack on MSEC building, attempted assassination of Derhachi MVA Head Zadorenko via car bomb (Oct 2024 - discovered), planned assassination of Kharkiv OVA Head Syniehubov ($50k reward, paused), arson of 2 military vehicles. Apprehended Oct 2024. Significantly elaborates on previously reported detention/indictment.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Updates)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (21 Clashes in Kursk Zone - UGS):
    • Huyevo/Hornal/Oleshnia/Loknya (Kursk): RU claim full liberation of Huyevo heavily reinforced (video, map update). UA claim of attack towards Loknya/PoW capture remains contradictory. Fierce fighting ongoing near Hornal/Oleshnia.
    • RU Losses Claimed: UA claim destruction/death of RU Pskov VDV paratrooper persists.
    • UA Losses Claimed (RU): Claim destruction of UA Stryker APC & Evac Group near Malaya Rybitsa (Belgorod direction, Colonelcassad, 08:23 UTC). Previous claim of BREM-1 near Demidovka.
    • Other: Basivka remains contested. Drone warfare active. Civilian impact reports unchanged.
  • Kupyansk Axis (4 Clashes - UGS):
    • Confirmed UA defense: UA forces (Achilles Rgt, 43rd Mech Bde, Bureviy NG Bde) repelled RU attack using modified "turtle tank" with log armor and BMP near Pishchane/Kruhliakivka/Zahryzove areas.
  • Lyman Axis (21 Clashes - UGS):
    • Katerynivka: Russian control confirmed. RU sources reiterate.
    • Torske: RU claim significant advance into northern part persists. (Requires Verification).
    • Other details unchanged.
  • Siversk Axis (3 Clashes - UGS):
    • RU claims expanded control zone near Verkhnokamyanske (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC). UGS previously reported repelled attacks near Hryhorivka.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (3 Clashes - UGS) (incl. Chasiv Yar):
    • No significant updates. Previous RU advance near Kanal microdistrict stands.
  • Toretsk Axis (23 Clashes - UGS):
    • RU claims advance in the area of Ozaryanivka (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC). Clashes near Ozaryanivka previously reported by UGS.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (52 Clashes - UGS): Highest Intensity.
    • Shevchenko: Contested. RU now claims full control (Colonelcassad, 09:08 UTC), contradicting earlier UA DeepState report of pushback. Further verification needed.
    • Other details (Lysivka fighting, alleged FAB strikes, clashes elsewhere) unchanged.
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (12 Clashes - UGS):
    • RU source posted old (Apr 1) claim of 1.5km advance near Velyka Novosilka / Burlatske (Slivochniy Kapriz, 08:52 UTC). Current relevance needs confirmation. UGS reported clashes near Bohatyr/Kostiantynopil/Rozlyv/Skudne. RU claims advancing towards Bohatyr, consolidating near Rozlyv persist.
  • Huliaipole Axis (2 Clashes - UGS):
    • No significant updates.
  • Orikhiv Axis (8 Clashes - UGS):
    • RU claims destruction of UA 2S22 Bohdana SPG and 2 pickups via FPV (Colonelcassad, Antagonist group). Claim destruction of damaged UA BMP via FPV (Kotsnews, ZVENO group). Confirms RU drone activity targeting UA assets.
    • Previous UA report of repelling 8 RU assaults near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Shcherbaky stands. RU claims of advances towards Orikhiv and storming Stepove persist.
  • Kharkiv Axis (No Ground Assaults - UGS):
    • Major counter-intelligence success: Details released on indictment of alleged FSB agent responsible for murder, planned assassinations of top regional officials (Syniehubov, Zadorenko), and sabotage acts. Reinforces high level of RU covert threat.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (No Ground Assaults - UGS / SDF South):
    • No change reported.

III. Naval Situation

  • No significant updates since 08:40 UTC report. Black Sea/Azov clear of RU warships. 3 Kalibr carriers (26 missiles) in Mediterranean. UUV developments noted previously.

IV. Other Developments

  • Ukrainian Logistics & Capabilities:
    • Military Pay: UA Ministry of Finance strongly refutes reports of budget shortfalls affecting military pay, stating funds are secured and payments are on schedule. This counters recent RU information operations.
    • Counter-Intelligence: Detailed indictment of high-profile alleged FSB agent in Kharkiv highlights ongoing counter-espionage efforts.
    • Other details (vehicle delivery, drone production focus, C2 system dev, Pantsir kills) unchanged.
  • Russian Logistics & Capabilities:
    • Turkey/Azerbaijan Cooperation: Integration of Turkish SOM cruise missiles onto Azerbaijani Su-25s confirmed by RU sources, enhancing regional strike capabilities.
    • Other details (EW needs, medical commissions, vehicle accident issues) unchanged.
  • International Relations/Geopolitics (Updates):
    • US-China Trade: China reiterated threats of countermeasures if US imposes further tariffs (relevant to potential global economic impacts). US Senator Warren mentioned potential Congressional action to roll back Trump-era tariffs.
    • Czech Republic: Reports of alleged hack of PM's social media account spreading disinformation about RU attack near Kaliningrad border (later deleted, claimed hack). Potential info op/probe.
    • Other details (Belgium visit, Wiesbaden HQ, RU nuclear rhetoric) unchanged.
Previous Report (2025-04-08 08:41:15Z)