Nightwatch logo'Nightwatch' text with white and gray lettersKnowledge is Power

Situation Report

2025-04-08 08:41:15Z
Previous Report (2025-04-08 08:12:02Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 8, 2025, 08:40 UTC

(Analysis based on information received up to 08:40 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Strategic Assessment

  • Combat Intensity: High intensity persists across the front line. 159 combat clashes were recorded in the 24 hours preceding 05:00 UTC Apr 8 (UGS). Key active sectors remain Pokrovsk (52 clashes), Toretsk (23), Lyman (21), and the Kursk Operational Zone (21). Ground assaults were ongoing or repelled across multiple axes. No Russian ground assaults were reported on the Kharkiv or Prydniprovsky axes in the UGS morning report.
  • Russian Strike Activity (Past 24h & Ongoing): Significant volume continues.
    • Reported Strikes (UGS 05:00 UTC): 1 missile strike (Iskander-M), 74 aviation strikes (utilizing 120 KABs), over 5,800 shelling incidents (134 MLRS), and 2,782 kamikaze drone deployments targeting Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
    • Southern Command Zone (SDF South 05:53 UTC): Recorded >330 shelling incidents (>1300 rounds), ~630 kamikaze drone strikes, >320 drone munition drops (>500 munitions), 10 air strikes (5 KABs, 52 NARs). Impacts in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. 8 civilians WIA (incl. 1 child) in Kherson Oblast.
    • Kharkiv Oblast (Regional Gov. 05:52 UTC): Includes Iskander-M (Vysokyi), KABs (Slatyne, Udy, Baranivka), FPV drone (Bilyi Kolodyaz - 3 WIA), MLRS (Pisky-Radkivski), shelling (Tokarivka Druha - 1 KIA, 2 WIA).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (RU Claim, Apr 7-8 Night): Russian sources claimed strikes on targets in Pavlohrad, Kamenskoye (Kamianske), Novomoskovsk (Samar), Dnipropetrovsk city (alleged repair workshops, UAV production), and Synelnykove railway hub.
    • Immediate Air Threats (as of 08:40 UTC):
      • Ballistic Missile Threat: Declared for areas reachable from Donetsk Oblast (UA AF, 08:35 UTC).
      • Air Raid Alert: Declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Regional Admin, 08:35 UTC).
      • Russian tactical aviation remains active on the southeastern direction (UA AF 07:24 UTC). Threat of aviation weapon use persists for frontline oblasts.
  • Overnight Air Attack (Apr 7-8):
    • Launch: Russia launched 1 Iskander-M (Kursk area) and 46 Shahed-type UAVs / unspecified 'imitator drones' (Primorsko-Akhtarsk).
    • Interceptions (UA AF 05:00 UTC / GS ZSU 05:48 UTC): Iskander-M not intercepted. 9 Shahed/Strike UAVs confirmed intercepted (out of 46 total Shaheds/imitators launched). 31 reported "locationally lost" (likely decoys), suggesting significant decoy usage potentially impacting AD effectiveness. Low interception rate for strike UAVs noted.
    • Impacts: Damage confirmed in Kharkiv (recreation base damaged by Iskander-M; 3 civilians with stress reactions), Dnipropetrovsk (infrastructure, buildings damaged by UAV/Artillery; 8 RU UAVs downed over oblast), and Donetsk Oblasts. Video evidence emerged allegedly showing 3 FAB glide bomb impacts in Pokrovsk city.
  • Russian Air Defense Claims / Ukrainian Drone Activity (Past 24h):
    • RU MoD Claim (Overnight Apr 7-8): Interception of 23 Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk (19) and Belgorod (4) Oblasts.
    • RU Claim (Belgorod Oblast, Past 24h): Alleged over 35 Ukrainian drone attacks targeting civilians. Confirmed 2 teenagers (16yo) WIA in Borki (Valuysky district). Claimed damage to houses, vehicles, power lines.
    • RU Claim (Kursk Border, Apr 8 AM): Russian sources claim destruction of multiple Ukrainian heavy drones ("Baba Yaga" variants - bomber, recon, relay) using FPV drones, indicating active drone-vs-drone engagements (RU Source, 00:05 UTC).
  • Russian Ground Force Claims & Activity (Highlights):
    • Multiple Axes: Claims of ongoing offensive actions and advances on Zaporizhzhia (approaching Orikhiv from Novodanylivka/Pavlivka), Pokrovsk, Lyman (Torske), Toretsk, and South Donetsk directions.
    • Kursk/Belgorod Border:
      • Claim Liberation of Huyevo (Kursk) after extended fighting, pushing UA forces back (Multiple RU Sources, incl. 07:46 UTC). Video released showing RU flag raised on destroyed church ruins in Huyevo (08:20 UTC).
      • Claim Destruction of UA BREM-1 ARV near Demidovka (Belgorod) after hitting mine, followed by drone strikes. Video released (Dnevnik Desantnika, 07:42 UTC).
      • Civilian Impacts: 2 teenagers WIA in Borki (Belgorod) confirmed. High volume of claimed UA drone attacks.
      • RU PoW Narrative: Testimony alleging UA abandonment of wounded near Sudzha amplified.
    • Chasiv Yar: Claim control over northern shore of Dniprovsky pond (Kanal microdistrict).
    • Lyman: Confirmed capture of Katerynivka. Video evidence of RU combat released (07:54 UTC). Claimed advance into northern Torske, controlling significant part.
    • Zaporizhzhia: Significant advances claimed near Novodanylivka and Pavlivka, approaching Orikhiv. Ongoing storming of Stepove claimed. Claimed destruction of UA BTR, ~100 UA KIA. FPV strike on UA MK-19/vehicles claimed (RU MoD, 07:58 UTC). Destruction of UA repeater claimed (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR, 08:02 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Ground Force Reports & Counterclaims (Highlights):
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Ukrainian forces reportedly pushed back Russian forces in Shevchenko (DeepState, 05:43 UTC), contradicting earlier RU claims. Heavy fighting continues. RU source video shows soldiers evading UA drone pursuit (08:01 UTC).
    • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone:
      • UGS reported repelling 21 RU attacks in the Kursk zone (05:00 UTC). Fierce fighting near Oleshnia confirmed.
      • Claimed UA Offensive Action (Slivochniy Kapriz, 08:04 UTC): Ukrainian forces reportedly attacked towards Loknya (Kursk), storming RU positions in residential areas and capturing several RU PoWs. Fighting claimed up to 5km inside Sumy Oblast near Sudzha. This directly contradicts strong RU claims of liberating Huyevo and pushing UA forces back. Map analysis suggests UA activity near Loknya/Sudzha border area.
      • Claimed RU VDV Loss (Butusov Plus, 07:59 UTC): Claimed destruction of vehicle and death of RU Pskov VDV paratrooper in Kursk Oblast. Video shows recovery of remains, dog tag (99338).
      • Basivka (Sumy): Contested. UA forces stated full control (Apr 7), refuting RU claims of liberation.
    • Toretsk Axis: 2 RU BMPs destroyed during repelled assault (Apr 7 eve).
    • Orikhiv Axis: 8 RU assaults repelled (near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Shcherbaky) (SDF South). Major RU claims of advances towards Orikhiv unconfirmed by UA side.
    • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): No RU ground assaults reported. UA forces conducting clearing operations on Dnipro islands near Kherson; captured RU PoW.
    • General: UA Azov Bde claims downing 6 RU recon UAVs (3 Zala, 2 Supercam, 1 Orlan) (Sternenko, 08:04 UTC).
  • Confirmed/Contested Territorial Control Changes (Recent Key Points):
    • Katerynivka (Lyman Axis): Russian control confirmed. (Geolocated footage, Multiple Sources).
    • Torske (Lyman Axis): Russian claim of significant advance into northern part. (Requires Verification).
    • Huyevo (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Russian claim of full liberation reinforced by multiple sources/video. Contradicted by UA claim of attacks near Loknya.
    • Loknya (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Ukrainian claim of attack towards Loknya, capturing PoWs. (Requires Verification). Contradicts RU claims of pushing UA out.
    • Shevchenko (Pokrovsk Axis): UA claim pushback (DeepState). Contradicts earlier RU claims of control/advance.
    • Basivka (Sumy Oblast, Russia): Contested. UA claims control, RU claims liberation.
    • Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Axis): Russian forces advanced within Chasiv Yar (near Kanal microdistrict).
    • Stepove (Orikhiv Axis): Russian forces advanced into western part. Ongoing storming claimed.
  • Technological Developments & Tactics:
    • Russian: Continued claims/evidence of fiber-optic FPV use. Highlighted need for EW backpacks for infantry. Claims of drone destruction of UA BREM-1 ARV near Demidovka (Belgorod). FPV strikes on UA MK-19/vehicles (Zaporizhzhia) and repeater claimed. Video shows soldiers evading UA drone pursuit. Establishment of mobile medical commissions confirmed. Reported development/use of "Courier" assault UGVs by 36th CAA. Claim integration of Turkish SOM cruise missiles on Azerbaijani Su-25s.
    • Ukrainian: Stavka emphasized domestic drone production (all types, UGVs), focus on fiber-optic drones. Claimed successful deep strike on Shaikovka airfield (Russia) on March 31. Delivery of 40 vehicles to Zaporizhzhia front. Mobile Fire Groups training against Shaheds. Development of "Impuls" C2 system announced. Azov Bde claims downing 6 RU recon UAVs. First Separate Medical Battalion operational, using UAVs for evacuation. Claimed destruction of 2 RU Pantsir-S1 SAMs using "Darts" drones (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 08:34 UTC).
  • Claimed Losses (Highlights):
    • Russian Losses (Past 24h - UGS 05:00 UTC): Approx. +1290 personnel; 5 Tanks, 14 AFVs, 43 Artillery Systems.
    • Specific RU Losses Claimed (UA): 2 BMPs (Toretsk); 6 Recon UAVs (Azov Bde); VDV paratrooper KIA (Kursk); 2 Pantsir-S1 SAMs (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
    • Ukrainian Losses Claimed (RU): ~100 KIA, BTR (Zaporizhzhia); BREM-1 ARV (Demidovka, Belgorod); MK-19, vehicles (Zaporizhzhia); Repeater. Stryker APC & evac group (Belgorod direction, Colonelcassad 08:23 UTC).
  • Strategic Communication & Information Warfare:
    • Zelenskyy acknowledged UA operations in RU border regions.
    • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath: Death toll 20 KIA (9 children), >90 WIA. UN SC / OSCE meetings convened. Continued focus on civilian targeting vs. RU claims of military meeting.
    • RU sources amplify PoW testimony (Sudzha abandonment claim), new PoW video. RU sources claim markets price in 70% chance of peace deal. Video released claiming destruction of UA equipment near Demidovka. Video of Katerynivka capture released. Video shows soldiers evading UA drone. TASS claims UA soldiers in Sudzha admit unwillingness to fight (00:01 UTC). Video promoting Sr. Lt. Starostin as "Hero of Russia" (23:52 UTC). Promotion of Ukraina.ru news channel by alleged soldiers (08:34 UTC).
    • UA sources release video of captured RU PoW (Kherson). Zaluzhnyi confirms Wiesbaden HQ details. Video claiming destruction of RU VDV paratrooper (Kursk). UA claim of offensive actions/PoW capture near Loknya (Kursk). Discussion on historical song appropriation (OTU Kharkiv).
  • Counter-Intelligence / Sabotage:
    • SBU detained alleged Russian agent Valeriy Kanibolotskyi in Kharkiv collecting targeting data for KAB strikes.
    • Indictment Filed (Kharkiv): Man accused of collaborating with FSB, assassinating UA soldier (Mar 2024), attempted assassinations of Kharkiv OVA Head & Derhachi MVA Head via car bomb (Oct 2024), arson, planned sabotage. Apprehended Oct 2024.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Updates)

  • Pokrovsk Axis (52 Clashes - UGS): Highest Intensity.
    • Shevchenko: UA forces pushed back RU forces (DeepState). Contradicts earlier RU claims.
    • Lysivka: Heavy fighting ongoing. RU holds eastern part, attacking N/W (DeepState). RU infantry attacks reported.
    • Pokrovsk City: Video evidence of alleged 3x RU FAB glide bomb strikes on a building.
    • Other locations: Clashes near Kalynove, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Udachne, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Kotlyne, Kotlyarivka, Malynivka, Serhiivka.
  • Toretsk Axis (23 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled attacks near Dachne, Shcherbynivka, Ozaryanivka, Toretsk. 2 RU BMPs claimed destroyed (Apr 7 eve).
    • RU claims advances W of Panteleimonivka / towards Zelenopillya.
  • Lyman Axis (21 Clashes - UGS):
    • Katerynivka: Russian control confirmed. Video of combat released.
    • Torske: RU claim significant advance into northern part. (Requires Verification). Clashes near Torske reported by UGS.
    • Novolyubivka: RU forces advanced west of the settlement.
    • Other locations: Clashes near Nadiya, Yampolivka, and towards Novoplatonivka, Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Olhivka, Zelena Dolyna, Nove.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (21 Clashes in Kursk Zone - UGS):
    • Huyevo/Hornal/Oleshnia/Loknya (Kursk):
      • RU Claim: Full liberation of Huyevo claimed, reinforced by video. Fighting ongoing for Oleshnia, advance towards Gornal Monastery claimed.
      • UA Claim: Attack towards Loknya, storming RU positions, capturing RU PoWs (Slivochniy Kapriz, 08:04 UTC). Contradicts RU claims. Map analysis supports UA activity claim near Loknya/Sudzha. Fierce fighting near Hornal/Oleshnia.
    • Basivka (Sumy): Contested. UA claims control, RU claims liberation.
    • RU Losses Claimed: UA claim destruction/death of RU Pskov VDV paratrooper in Kursk Oblast.
    • Drone Warfare: Active drone-vs-drone engagements claimed (RU source). RU claims destruction of UA BREM-1 ARV near Demidovka (Belgorod) via mine/drones (07:42 UTC). UA claims destruction of 2 RU Pantsir-S1 SAMs.
    • Civilian Impact: 2 teenagers WIA (Borki, Belgorod). High volume of claimed UA drone attacks on Belgorod. Reports of 20 civilian deaths, 32 WIA in Belgorod Oblast from military vehicle accidents since Feb 2022, with minimal accountability for RU military personnel reported (ASTRA / Vot Tak, 08:16 UTC).
  • Orikhiv Axis (8 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled 8 RU attacks near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Shcherbaky.
    • Significant RU Advances Claimed towards Orikhiv (Mash na Donbasse). (Requires Verification).
    • Stepove: RU forces advanced into western part. Ongoing storming claimed. RU MoD claims FPV strike on UA MK-19/vehicles.
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (12 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled attacks towards Bohatyr and near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne.
    • RU claims advancing towards Bohatyr, consolidating near Rozlyv.
    • Myrne: RU claims airstrike on UA brigade location (71st Bde), 20 UA KIA alleged.
  • Huliaipole Axis (2 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled 2 attacks towards Shevchenko.
  • Kupyansk Axis (4 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled 4 attacks towards Pishchane, near Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (3 Clashes - UGS) (incl. Chasiv Yar):
    • Clashes near Kurdyumivka, Chasiv Yar. RU advanced within Chasiv Yar near Kanal microdistrict.
  • Siversk Axis (3 Clashes - UGS):
    • UA repelled 3 attacks near Hryhorivka.
  • Kharkiv Axis (No Ground Assaults - UGS):
    • Heavy RU shelling/KAB/drone strikes. SBU detained alleged agent Valeriy Kanibolotskyi providing targeting data. Major RU sabotage/assassination plot targeting senior officials disrupted; alleged FSB agent indicted.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (No Ground Assaults - UGS / SDF South):
    • UA positions maintained near Krynky. UA clearing ops on Dnipro islands, captured RU PoW.

III. Naval Situation

  • Black Sea / Sea of Azov: No Russian warships detected (UGS, Apr 8, 03:00 UTC).
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian ships deployed, all Kalibr carriers (total potential salvo: 26 missiles) (UGS, Apr 8, 03:00 UTC).
  • New Tech: Anduril Industries (US company supplying UA with UAVs) reportedly introduced new line of autonomous underwater vehicles (UUVs), including Copperhead-M loitering munition/recon UUV, deployable from larger Dive-LD/XL platforms (RU Source, 08:07 UTC).

IV. Other Developments

  • Ukrainian Logistics & Capabilities: Delivery of 40 light tactical vehicles to Zaporizhzhia front. Continued focus on domestic drone production (fiber-optic, UGVs). Development of "Impuls" C2 system. Claimed destruction of 2 RU Pantsir-S1 SAMs. Potential budget deficit reported, raising concerns about future soldier salaries (Ekonomichna Pravda via Operatyvnyi ZSU, 08:00 UTC). SBU detains agent in Kharkiv. Indictment filed against alleged FSB agent for assassination/sabotage plot in Kharkiv. US Treasury Secretary meeting schedule noted regarding import tariffs discussion (potentially impacting aid dynamics). Ukrainian Hryvnia slightly strengthened against USD/EUR in exchange markets (RBC-Ukraina).
  • Russian Logistics & Capabilities: Continued need for infantry EW systems highlighted. Creation of mobile medical commissions confirmed. Turkey reportedly integrated SOM cruise missiles onto Azerbaijani Su-25s after modernization, enhancing export potential (RU Source, 08:03 UTC). RU MoD reportedly suing military software developer "Angstrem," suggesting internal friction (TASS, 00:01 UTC). Reports of high civilian casualties from RU military vehicle accidents in Belgorod Oblast with lack of accountability (ASTRA/Vot Tak, 08:16 UTC).
  • International Relations/Geopolitics:
    • Belgium: High-level delegation met Zelenskyy in Kyiv.
    • US-Ukraine-NATO: Zaluzhnyi confirms joint UA-Partner operational HQ in Wiesbaden, Germany.
    • Russia Nuclear Posturing: Medvedev reiterates nuclear threat rhetoric, claims impossibility of disarmament for decades.
    • Finance/Economy: RU sources cite analysis suggesting 70% market expectation of Ukraine peace deal. China threatens retaliation if US imposes further tariffs (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 08:18 UTC).
Previous Report (2025-04-08 08:12:02Z)