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Situation Report

2025-04-05 05:29:16Z
Previous Report (2025-04-05 04:58:38Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 5, 2025, 05:27 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across the frontlines. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 145 combat engagements during the past 24 hours (as of 08:00 UTC Apr 5). Russian offensive pressure continues, particularly focused on the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk axes.
  • Russian Tactics: Heavy reliance on aviation (107 strikes, 171 KABs reported past 24h), kamikaze drones (2737 reported past 24h), and artillery/MLRS fire (6353 shelling attacks, 105 MLRS reported past 24h). In the Southern Sector alone, 560 kamikaze drone strikes and over 320 UAV ordnance drops were recorded (SDF, Apr 5 AM).
  • Major Incident - Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4): Combined Russian ballistic missile (Iskander-M w/ cluster munition) and subsequent mass Shahed drone attacks targeted residential areas, resulting in significant civilian casualties (19 KIA, incl. 9 children; 68 WIA). Rescue operations concluded early Apr 5. Extensive damage to residential buildings, educational facilities, playgrounds, vehicles, and infrastructure.
  • Cross-Border Operations (Kursk/Sumy): Ukrainian forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast, repelling 18 Russian attacks in the past 24 hours (UGS). These actions are assessed to tie down significant Russian forces. Intense Russian shelling (362 arty attacks, 8 MLRS) and air strikes (13 air strikes, 20 KABs) reported on the Kursk direction (UGS). Russian sources claim ongoing fighting near Oleshnia (Kursk).
  • Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Confirmed Ukrainian UAV strikes overnight (Apr 4-5) caused significant fires at strategic industrial facilities deep inside Russia:
    • Saransk, Mordovia: "Optical Fiber Systems" plant (reportedly Russia's sole producer).
    • Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast: "Promsintez" explosives plant (previously targeted).
  • Naval Situation (Apr 5 AM): 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier deployed in the Black Sea (potential salvo: 4 missiles). 3 Kalibr carriers remain in the Mediterranean Sea (potential salvo: 26 missiles). No Russian warships reported in the Sea of Azov.

II. Major Incident: Kryvyi Rih Combined Attacks (Apr 4) - UPDATED

  • Casualties (Final - Vilkul, Apr 5): 19 civilians Killed (including 9 children), 68 civilians Wounded. 40 remain hospitalized (17 serious, incl. 2 children critical in Dnipro).
    • Breakdown: Missile Strike: 18 KIA, 61 WIA. Shahed Drone Attack: 1 KIA (56yo woman), 7 WIA.
  • Sequence & Weapons:
    1. Afternoon Ballistic Missile Strike: Confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition launched from Taganrog, Russia, impacting a residential district including a playground.
    2. Evening/Night Mass Shahed Drone Attack: Targeted the same city following the missile strike.
  • Damage: Extensive damage across the city affecting ~34 multi-story residential buildings, 6 educational facilities, private houses (1 destroyed), playgrounds, restaurant, businesses, industrial enterprise territory, tram lines, garages, and >44 vehicles (cars, minibuses, ambulances, truck).
  • Response Status: Rescue operations concluded 02:45 UTC Apr 5. Utility restoration efforts ongoing. Aid stations operational.
  • Russian Information Warfare: Persistent denial of civilian casualties, claims of hitting military targets (commanders/Western instructors meeting), and disputing the use of cluster munitions.

III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS Report 08:00 UTC, Apr 5 & Other Sources)

  • Lyman Axis: Highest Intensity. 39 Russian attacks reported in the past 24h. Assaults focused towards Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, and near Nadiia.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity. 40 Russian attacks repelled in the past 24h near Andriivka, Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Uspenivka, Shevchenko, Nadiivka, Tarasivka, and directions of Oleksandropil, Stara Mykolaivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Muravka.
    • RU MoD Claim (Reiterated Apr 5): Liberation of Uspenivka.
    • RU Claim (Apr 5): Destruction of 1 Leopard tank, other equipment, and up to 430 UA personnel losses within "Center" Group's area.
  • Toretsk Axis: Very High Intensity. 20 Russian attacks in the past 24h near Krymske, Dachne, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Diliivka.
    • Russian Advance Confirmed (DeepState, Apr 4): Within Toretsk city limits.
    • RU Claim (Apr 5): Successes claimed NW of Aleksandropol in Tarasivka.
  • Kursk Border / Sumy Oblast: 18 Russian attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk Oblast (past 24h, UGS). Heavy Russian shelling and air attacks continue in the direction.
    • RU Claim (Apr 5): Fighting ongoing near Basovka (Sumy) with RU initiative; RU forces advancing towards/fighting on outskirts of Oleshnia (Kursk); Civilian evacuation from Huyevo (Kursk); RU demining in Sudzha border area.
    • RU Claim (Apr 5): 217th PDR destroyed UA 120mm mortar & pickup (Sumy direction). Video released showing drone strikes on UA personnel in Sumy Oblast (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: 6 Russian attacks repelled past 24h near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil, Rozdolne, and towards Bahatyr.
    • RU Claim (Apr 5): Advance >1.5km depth / 1km front near Bohatyr ("Vostok" Group).
    • RU Drone Claims: Captured/damaged French VAB APC & UA Kozak (near Kurakhove, Apr 4); Disabled US MaxxPro MRAP (near Bohatyr, Apr 5).
  • Kupyansk Axis: 4 Russian attacks repelled past 24h near Holubivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove.
    • RU Claim (Apr 5): Advancing within Kondrashovka (Kharkiv Oblast); Intense fighting on Oskil right bank; UA sources report RU assault on Kamyanka.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia) / Southern Sector: 4 unsuccessful Russian attacks reported past 24h near Mali Shcherbaky and Stepove (UGS/SDF).
    • RU Attacks (SDF Report): 1 attack repelled near Novosilka (Huliaipole axis). RU air strikes on Novopil, Huliaipole, Novodarivka.
    • Intense Drone/Shelling (SDF): >350 shelling attacks (>1600 munitions); 560 RU kamikaze drone strikes; >320 UAV ordnance drops across Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk frontlines. 17 KABs, 65 NARs used.
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (OVA Report Apr 5 for prior 24h): 497 RU strikes (incl. 1 missile, 4 air, 300 UAV). 1 civilian WIA.
    • Russian Advance Confirmed (DeepState, Apr 4): In Mali Shcherbaky.
    • RU Claim (Apr 5): Active offensive near Kamyanske; Liquidation of UA recon group (Polohy dir); Destruction of UA points/bunkers & personnel (Orikhiv axis).
  • Siversk Axis: 3 Russian attacks repelled past 24h near Bilohorivka and towards Verkhnokamyanske. RU forces requesting drone support (Mavic 3 Pro/T) via fundraisers (Colonelcassad).
  • Kramatorsk / Chasiv Yar Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled past 24h near Kurdyumivka.
    • RU Claim (Apr 5): 98th VDV units destroyed 2x M113 APCs, 1x D-30 howitzer near Chasiv Yar.
  • Kharkiv Axis: 4 Russian attacks repelled past 24h near Vovchansk, Fyholivka, and towards Kamyanka. Continued RU shelling/drone attacks reported across the oblast, causing damage and casualties (Syniehubov).
    • Kupyansk: KAB strike damaged 2 ambulances, damaged school (Apr 4).
    • Shevchenkove: Drone strike injured 72yo woman (Apr 4).
    • Huriv Kozachok: FPV drone damaged houses/vehicle (Apr 5).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Dnipro River): No Russian offensive actions reported in the past 24 hours (UGS).

IV. Air, Missile, Drone & EW Activity

  • Russian Strike Totals (Past 24h - UGS 08:00 UTC Apr 5):
    • 1 Missile Strike (Iskander-M on Kryvyi Rih)
    • 107 Aviation Strikes (171 KABs)
    • 2737 Kamikaze Drone Attacks
    • 6353 Shelling Attacks (105 MLRS)
  • Shahed Drone Attack (Night Apr 4-5): Mass attack targeting multiple regions including Kryvyi Rih (casualties/damage detailed above), Kyiv (debris fire, no casualties), Dnipropetrovsk (6 downed), Zhytomyr, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy.
  • Other Recent Russian Strikes:
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 5): Drone strike damaged transport enterprise (Hrushivska community); Morning strike damaged houses (Malomykhailivska community); Arty/UAV attacks on Nikopol district communities damaged infrastructure (Lysak).
    • Kharkiv Oblast (Apr 4-5): UAVs caused fires (Izium, Znamyanka); KABs hit Kupyansk (damaged ambulances, school); FPV drone hit Huriv Kozachok (damaged houses/vehicle); Drone injured civilian in Shevchenkove.
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h): Missile strike on Kushuhum; Air strikes on Huliaipole, Temyrivka, Novodarivka; 300 UAV attacks; 8 MLRS; 184 artillery strikes across 13 settlements. 1 civilian WIA (near Stepnohirsk).
  • Ukrainian Strikes into Russia (Night Apr 4-5 - CONFIRMED):
    • Saransk, Mordovia: UAV attack caused large fire at "Optical Fiber Systems" plant.
    • Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast: UAV attack targeted "Promsintez" explosives plant, causing fire.
  • Russian Air Defence Claims (Night Apr 4-5):
    • Claimed 49 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Russian territory (MoD).
    • Claimed 1 UA UAV downed over Bryansk Oblast (Governor).

V. Claimed Losses & Equipment Damage (Past 24h as of Apr 5 AM)

  • Ukrainian Claims (UGS 08:00 UTC):
    • Personnel: ~1390 (Cumulative ~922,340)
    • Tanks: +13 (Cumulative 10,013 - Note: UGS reported 10,000 yesterday, discrepancy noted)
    • AFVs: +20 (Cumulative 19,222)
    • Artillery Systems: +67 (Cumulative 20,264)
    • MLRS: +1 (Cumulative 1,214)
    • Air Defence Systems: +1
    • OTL UAVs: +105 (Cumulative 19,353 - Note: UGS corrected cumulative total)
    • Vehicles / Fuel Tanks: +113 (Cumulative 25,369)
    • Special Equipment: +1
    • Heavy Flamethrower Systems (TOS): +1
  • Russian Claims (Recent):
    • Destruction of UA 120mm mortar & pickup (Sumy direction, 217th PDR).
    • Destruction of 2x M113 APCs & 1x D-30 howitzer (Chasiv Yar direction, 98th VDV).
    • Destruction of 1 Leopard tank, other vehicles/arty, up to 430 UA personnel (Pokrovsk axis, "Center" Group).
    • Destruction of French VAB, UA Kozak (near Kurakhove).
    • Disabled US MaxxPro MRAP (near Bohatyr).
    • Liquidation of UA recon group (Polohy direction).
    • Destruction of UA accommodation points, bunkers, personnel (Orikhiv axis).

VI. Other Significant Developments

  • Political/Diplomatic: Reports suggest French President Macron aims to position himself as Europe's representative for potential future peace talks with Putin. Hungarian PM Orban criticized mobilization of ethnic Hungarians in Zakarpattia into the Ukrainian army.
  • Russian Mobilization/Supply Issues: RU forces on Siversk axis reported appealing for drone donations (DJI Mavic 3 Pro/T), indicating potential equipment shortages.
Previous Report (2025-04-05 04:58:38Z)